The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Voice_of_Reason]

Somebody said somewhere that Turner took his foot off the gas.  I felt the same way during the game.  When I really looked at the play-by-play play-calling, I don't think that's really the case.

 

Drive 3 they started with a run and went 3-out. That's bad.

Drive 4, they moved the ball down to the Jax 34, and Samuel's fumbled.  That wasn't taking his foot off the gas.

Drive 5 was the end of the half.

Drive 6 they had a sack on second down after a first down incompletion.  Derailed the drive, but really wasn't taking his foot off the gas. 

Drive 7 they moved the ball a little bit, had a drop on 3rd down by Bates.  They passed more than they ran on this drive also.  

Drive 8 & 9 were the interceptions. 

 

So, did Turner take his foot off the gas?  I don't think so.  I think he actually stayed aggressive.

1 drive ended in a fumble

2 drives ended in INTs

1 drive ended in a 3rd down drop.

1 drive was basically ended by a sack.

 

I think they just had a whole bunch of bad execution across the board back-to-back-to-back more than Turner got conservative.  

 

And FWIW, that is a very different take than I had when watching the game live.  

Edited September 18, 2022 by Voice_of_Reason

[FootballZombie]

3 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

So, first let's just state that you BLATANTLY moved the goalposts.  The post I responded to, you said: 

 

Wha? How did I move anything. Bold emphasis is mine.

 

9 hours ago, FootballZombie said:

Twisting the numbers and narrative to get to that point.

 

Even for just week 1 our pass ratio was 60%

That is with the absolute handicaps in passing's favor of both losing our lead running back before the season and the only game on our record being one where we were down what turned out to be multiple scores in the 4th Qtr. We pretty much had to pass.

 

Fully expect things to slant further in rushing's favor as we incorporate other games where we are both not forced into obvious pass happy situations and regain our full compliment of RBs. It will normalize as the season rolls on, might have to wait till B-Rob comes back for the biggest impact however.

 

I certainly didn't predict the loss of our lead back which greatly hurts the balance, but we are still very much in the wheelhouse to be a top 10 rushing % O by the time the season wraps as we are not very far away from it even in a tremendous pass favored time-frame.

 

The absence of B-Rob is the main pillar of my response. I even stated his return would likely cause the greatest impact of the two. What goalpost am I moving?

 

I made no attempt to say we didn't pass more than I had previously predicted, I just provided rational reasoning as to why it occurred, and why I expect it to normalize.

 

A team passing more b/c they are short RB1 is a very obvious impacting factor.

A team facing more pressure to pass in the event they are down multiple scores late is a very obvious impacting factor.

 

 

The skewing and twisting of numbers and narrative is about the angle of trying to justify your offseason viewpoint by improperly presenting data and you tried to twist things around again in your recent post.

 

According to your numbers, after the 2nd INT the preceding 2 drives where our team was down with what turned out to be multiple scores in the 4th due to a missed conversion, we had a Pass ratio of over 72%. That is the literal embodiment of passing more when down late, and its right there in your data, but you purposefully gloss over that fact and tie it into the other drives (even though we were not down on those drives) to try and discredit the idea I presented and label it false.

 

It gets even more obvious if we break it down further.

-If we just look at the drive where we were down possible multiple scores (Drive 10) we had 100% pass rate

-if we include the 3 drives where we were just down in the 4th (Drives 9, 10 n 11) we had a pass rate of almost 74%

That seems like some pretty obvious influence there and to come out and tell me the idea that we passed more when we were down multiple scores in the 4th is a falsehood is downright bizarre. We had 100% pass rate in that time-frame. Even when we were just down it was overloaded to pass. C'mon man

 

This game was impacted by a number of factors, most notably the absence of RB1 which seems pretty major to me. Yes I think its fair to say we would be much more likely to run more had he been available.

I also think its pretty obvious by your reporting that there was a stretch where the team faced severe pressure to pass and score fast late in the game even if you try to paint over it.

Edited September 18, 2022 by FootballZombie

[Leonard Washington]

17 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

The absence of B-Rob is the main pillar of my response. I even stated his return would likely cause the greatest impact of the two. What goalpost am I moving?

 

I made no attempt to say we didn't pass more than I had previously predicted, I just provided rational reasoning as to why it occurred, and why I expect it to normalize.

 

A team passing more b/c they are short RB1 is a very obvious impacting factor.

 

 

I find it hard to believe Turner would base the game plan on a rookie running back given the potential opportunity with the explosive players on the roster. The evidence is the lack of touches by Williams who has a similar style to Robinson. Robinson would have gotten more touches but I think we got the 95% of the intended game plan last week. 

[gooseneck]

best combo since Eddie LaBaron and Al Dorrow

[FootballZombie]

40 minutes ago, Leonard Washington said:

I find it hard to believe Turner would base the game plan on a rookie running back given the potential opportunity with the explosive players on the roster. The evidence is the lack of touches by Williams who has a similar style to Robinson. Robinson would have gotten more touches but I think we got the 95% of the intended game plan last week. 

 

A fair argument, but Rob does not need to drastically alter the gameplan to justify the idea I have presented. If he even influences a just a small number of rushes instead of passes, your talking about percentage points in swing distance in terms of Pass/Rush ratio.

 

If his availability trades 2 or 3 passes for 2 or 3 rushes, our ratio last game would be right around where I predicted in the offseason. I think that is well within reason, and given the margin I'm not very surprised to see where our ratio was vs Jax.

 

I don't think its fair to assume the dude would cause like 10 more rushes and 10 less passes. That would be crazy. But a small uptick? I can see it.

Edited September 18, 2022 by FootballZombie

[Rex Tomb]

Huge fan of the revamped offense thus far. Pushing the ball down the field with the pass on first and second downs has been awesome

to see and it’s really keeping defenses on their heels from the get go.

[Voice_of_Reason]

11 hours ago, FootballZombie said:

 

Wha? How did I move anything. Bold emphasis is mine.

You went from you bolded, which you summarized here:

 

11 hours ago, FootballZombie said:

 

The absence of B-Rob is the main pillar of my response. I even stated his return would likely cause the greatest impact of the two. What goalpost am I moving?

 To this:

 

18 hours ago, FootballZombie said:

 

100% of those plays were called sans access to our lead back.

That does not justify an offfseason narrative when we had access to all our weapons.

 

It'll normalize w/ time

 

Which is moving the goal posts.  

 

I went through detail in the drive breakdown to absolutely blow-up the second point, as we actually called pass plays at a higher percentage than in the second half.

 

I also agree with @Leonard Washington. I actually don't think the presence or lack of presence of BRob did anything for the game plan.  I think if anything, Gibson might be down a few carries, and the guy who I think touches the ball less as a RB most is Samuel.  But that's about it.  I believe Scott Turner at his word he studied the defensive coordinator, who's entire philosophy is to stop the run, and he was going to pass the ball because of it.

 

I will agree there will be games where Scott calls a few more run plays than pass plays.  

 

However, I still doubt we will be in the top 10 of rush attempts by the end of the season.  That just doesn't seem to be the way this offense is constructed.  I think we'll be somewhere in the middle of the pack, 14-18.  Which is where we are now, FWIW, through week 1, and that's without doing all the analysis of excluding sacks, scrambles, etc.  

 

But we will see.  

 

I think today we're going to see another aggress, throw the ball a lot game-plan.  The Lion's defense is pretty bad everywhere, but I think we're going to get a good matchup with the receivers.  

 

 

11 hours ago, FootballZombie said:

According to your numbers, after the 2nd INT the preceding 2 drives where our team was down with what turned out to be multiple scores in the 4th due to a missed conversion, we had a Pass ratio of over 72%. That is the literal embodiment of passing more when down late, and its right there in your data, but you purposefully gloss over that fact and tie it into the other drives (even though we were not down on those drives) to try and discredit the idea I presented and label it false.

Now you're cherry picking.  We called pass plays at 69% in the first half.  After the INTs to the end of the game, it was basically the same

 

We did have 1 drive which was 100% pass plays, but it was literally 4 plays, because the 4th play was the bomb to Terry.

 

On the final drive down 2, they called 9 passes and 5 rushes.  

 

From the point they lost the lead (after the second INT) to the end of the game, they had 14 pass plays, 7 run plays.  That's actually 66% pass to run.  And yes, I DO count the 2 running plays on the final drive, because the game was not over until the kneel downs.  

 

If you want to cherry pick ONLY the 2 drives to get the leave back, it was 14 pass plays, 5 run plays, it was 73%.  However, the 19 total plays in this drive only represent 28% of the offensive plays int he game, and statistically, one run more would have dropped the percentage to 68% in that stretch.  It's statistically insignificant.  

 

Even when they were behind, it was basically the same mix, they didn't go pass-happy to catch up.  It was all about the same.

 

 

 

11 hours ago, FootballZombie said:

It gets even more obvious if we break it down further.

-If we just look at the drive where we were down possible multiple scores (Drive 10) we had 100% pass rate

-if we include the 3 drives where we were just down in the 4th (Drives 9, 10 n 11) we had a pass rate of almost 74%

That seems like some pretty obvious influence there and to come out and tell me the idea that we passed more when we were down multiple scores in the 4th is a falsehood is downright bizarre. We had 100% pass rate in that time-frame. Even when we were just down it was overloaded to pass. C'mon man

 

This game was impacted by a number of factors, most notably the absence of RB1 which seems pretty major to me. Yes I think its fair to say we would be much more likely to run more had he been available.

I also think its pretty obvious by your reporting that there was a stretch where the team faced severe pressure to pass and score fast late in the game even if you try to paint over it.

Yeah, see above.  

 

All off this is basically wrong.

 

You're trying SO DESPERATELY to find something that is not there, whether consciously or not.  

 

They really didn't do anything that different which skewed any of their overall numbers when they were down.

 

The key to keep in mind, in the first half, they called passes at a rate of 69%, when up by 2 scores most of the half.  

 

When they were down, they basically called the same game-plan.  And the ratio of the go-ahead drive, where they were down by 2, they had a pass/run percentage of 64%, 9 passes, 5 runs.  This was actually one of their more run-heavy drives of the entire day.  And they were still trailing by 2.

 

I know you can't let this go, but believe me, at this point, you really should.  They called a pass-first offense the entire game.  

[FootballZombie]

1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

 

 

So making the same argument is moving the goalpoasts now. right.

 

I also don't know how throwing more when down multiple scores somehow correlates to pass % over a time period when they are not in that window. Makes no sense.

[D’Pablo]

Omg, it really is time to clear house

[kingdaddy]

Detroit is kicking our ass minus 3 offensive linemen and with Swift standing on the sidelines. JDR needs to go.

[redskinss]

Apparently neither carson wentz or Matt ryan were the answer, who knew?

Lol.

[Bunny Kelly]

Wentz will throw many more ugly INTs but having watched, Heincke, Alex, Dwayne & too many others the last few years, you can't argue Wentz is not a legitmate NFL QB, he may not be perfect but he is a NFL starter quality QB & doesnt deserve all the hate

[Hooper]

Dude is a beast. 

 

We lucked out.

 

 

[NoCalMike]

I mean the O-line was several levels of an abomination in the 1st half.  It's no surprise that once they actually were able to hold protection for more than 2 seconds, Wentz started making the sort of completions we all assumed they should be making against the Lions defense.

 

 

[Csup]

1 minute ago, Bunny Kelly said:

Wentz will throw many more ugly INTs but having watched, Heincke, Alex, Dwayne & too many others the last few years, you can't argue Wentz is not a legitmate NFL QB, he may not be perfect but he is a NFL starter quality QB & doesnt deserve all the hate

There are so many problems with this team - Wentz isn't great but he is hardly the reason Washington lost today.

[Zim489]

9 minutes ago, Hooper said:

Dude is a beast. 

 

We lucked out.

 

 

Oh please lol

[Est.1974]

QB is the least of our problems by quite a long way.

[Cooleyfan1993]

4 minutes ago, Zim489 said:

Oh please lol

7 TDs 3 INTs through 2 weeks. Please, tell me who our last QB was that managed to have more than 3 TDs through 2 weeks. 

[Hooper]

Carson can make all the throws and can move. 

 

What do people want, ARod?

 

I didn't like the trade at all. Now I think we lucked out. 

6 minutes ago, Cooleyfan1993 said:

7 TDs 3 INTs through 2 weeks. Please, tell me who our last QB was that managed to have more than 3 TDs through 2 weeks. 

Exactly. He also has showed a ton of heart.

 

 

[Warhead36]

Wentz along with the WRs are the best part of this team right now. He has his ups and downs sure but this team has so many other problems right now. I think we can say QB is mostly solidified for the time being. Of course we'd all love a Mahomes or Allen but those guys are once in a generation. 

[Renegade7]

Just now, Hooper said:

Carson can make all the throws and can move. 

 

What do people want, ARod?

 

I didn't like the trade at all. Now I think we lucked out. 

 

Same.

 

I'm past all of it now because it's hard to make case against him being best QB we've had this century. 

 

He's the truth...need that to win in this league, so build around him and make it work.

[Warhead36]

1 minute ago, Hooper said:

Carson can make all the throws and can move. 

 

What do people want, ARod?

 

I didn't like the trade at all. Now I think we lucked out. 

I agree. Wentz was the realistic best case option and right now its working out for us. I can't imagine any other QB we could have gotten this past offseason that would have led the comeback last week and near comeback this week. 

[Zim489]

We’ve played 2 bad defenses thus far. He’s been about what we expect. The lions did drop about 4 pick Opportunities today. 

[Hooper]

I think a lot of fans legit just watch the highlights of other QBs.

[Vandelay_Industries]

1 minute ago, Zim489 said:

We’ve played 2 bad defenses thus far. He’s been about what we expect. The lions did drop about 4 pick Opportunities today. 

 

The Colts scored zero points against that bad Jaguars defense.