The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Ball Security]

3 hours ago, HigSkin said:

I think we'll all take this ranking and may be movement with Cousins and Allen playing tonight but...

 

 

😂😂

 

 

What’s wild is that Allen has the fewest yards of the four starters tonight.  Cousins would need 360+ yards to catch him.

[goskins10]

I will be posting this direct comparison all season, good or bad, win loss. This cwas the deal the Colts desperatly wanted and we heard all offseason how Matt Ryan >>>>> Carson Wentz in every way possible incluyding being a man! The slobbering over Matt R, who at one time was borderline elite but now a shell of that, was way over the top. So I plan to be petty - LOL 

 

Carson is killing Matt in virtually every category and with what we were told was a better collection of talent. The only thing I see as better right now is they have Jonathan Taylor. But Jacksonville nullified him for the most part. He palyed well against HGouston but that's Houston. And they still; did not win!  

 

A few side notes - No way I look to extend him right now. It's only 2 gms. He could still turn into ****. I doubt it, but it is possible until, it's not. I would wait till the season is over. If he still warrants it, then resttucture to get some CAP room. They have him for 2 more years after this if they want him. 

 

@SonnySideUp - There is no discussion about Tua,. With his injuries no one was taking him ahead of Chase Young. Chase was arguably the best prospect at the time to come out that draft. Also, it's not like Tua came out and took the league by storm. He had a few nice games in his 3rd yr in the league. CHase styill has plenty of time. 

 

@skinny21 With all due respect, there is NOT even a semi interesting discussino to be had about Taylor H. Howell has no impact on Wentz - TH. The D holding the team back would not be reason enough to play TH - In fact I see no reason outside a Carson Wenta injury that would make any sense in having Taylor play. Going back to howell, if Carson ****s the bed from here on out or at some length of time this year, Howell starts ahead of TH. No reason to put TH in. We know he has a fatal flaw - super nice guy, very easy to root but in not an NFL starting QB. Just a heads up, Indy just has a conditional 3rd pick that goes to 4th if he plays less than 75% of the snaps, which I fully expect him to play well over that unless he gets hurt. The bigger point is it's only 1 draft pick not 2. Even this year, we swapped 2nds and then gave them a 3rd.

 

 

Matt Ryan - 

 

Carson Wentz - 

Edited September 21, 2022 by goskins10

[DJHJR86]

I don't understand how anyone can objectively say that they would prefer Matt Ryan over Wentz at this stage in Ryan's career.  

[skinny21]

2 hours ago, goskins10 said:

 

@skinny21 With all due respect, there is NOT even a semi interesting discussino to be had about Taylor H. Howell has no impact on Wentz - TH. The D holding the team back would not be reason enough to play TH - In fact I see no reason outside a Carson Wenta injury that would make any sense in having Taylor play. Going back to howell, if Carson ****s the bed from here on out or at some length of time this year, Howell starts ahead of TH. No reason to put TH in. We know he has a fatal flaw - super nice guy, very easy to root but in not an NFL starting QB. Just a heads up, Indy just has a conditional 3rd pick that goes to 4th if he plays less than 75% of the snaps, which I fully expect him to play well over that unless he gets hurt. The bigger point is it's only 1 draft pick not 2. Even this year, we swapped 2nds and then gave them a 3rd.

Sorry if I wasn’t clear, but I took the post I quoted as saying - do some still think we should have ridden with Heinicke instead of trading for Wentz. Hopefully with that cleared up, my comments make more sense.

 

So I was referring to whether we would have been better off riding Heinicke vs trading for Wentz, not ‘should we be starting Heinicke instead’.  My comment about Howell was really about whether he’d have had a shorter road to becoming our starter (if we had not traded for Wentz) - not about Howell having an impact on Wentz/TH.

Thanks for the correction on the trade details, I really need to stop trusting my memory, lol.

 

 

[goskins10]

5 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

Sorry if I wasn’t clear, but I took the post I quoted as saying - do some still think we should have ridden with Heinicke instead of trading for Wentz. Hopefully with that cleared up, my comments make more sense.

 

So I was referring to whether we would have been better off riding Heinicke vs trading for Wentz, not ‘should we be starting Heinicke instead’.  My comment about Howell was really about whether he’d have had a shorter road to becoming our starter (if we had not traded for Wentz) - not about Howell having an impact on Wentz/TH.

Thanks for the correction on the trade details, I really need to stop trusting my memory, lol.

 

 

 

 

Fair enough. I better understand your point. I have to say for me there is still no real discussion. Moving forward with TH as the projected starter was just not an option. If it was not Wentz it would have been someone. I like Howell and he fell much further than he should, but he is still a project. They would have had to throw him to the wolves which I would have seen that a recipe for disaster. But in fairness we have seen crazier things...  🙂 

 

Of the QBs we had a realistic shot at, at least through 2 gms Wentz looks like the best option. I am glad none of Mariota, Trubisky, WInston, etc ended up here. Wentz will drive us crazy some times but he also has ability to get hot and make the team and the fans very happy. Really happy to see his resilience on display early. Not sure if it's new found of he always had it in him, it's good to see it now. 

[Skinsinparadise]

13 hours ago, DJHJR86 said:

I don't understand how anyone can objectively say that they would prefer Matt Ryan over Wentz at this stage in Ryan's career.  

 

So far this season's that's true.  I hope it continues.  As I've said here I have nothing against Matt Ryan, i think he's had a heck of a career.  I think I respect his career more than some here.  Yet, I am rooting for him to decline as many QBs (sans Rodgers, Brady) do in their late 30s.  I am rooting for it because of how obnoxious the Colts players, coaches, media have been in touting him.

 

As I said back then there is a downside to that which is it sets up a player to be criticized if they don't meet those lofty heights.  And it makes the coach look bad, too. Colts right now are living with the karma they created, its fun.  I am relishing it for now but realize it could change. 

Edited September 20, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[zCommander]

5 hours ago, Conn said:

the standard for Heinicke was winning games? Did anyone tell him? 

 

My comment wasn't about TH. But apparently your mind automatically drifts to TH...lol

[Conn]

12 minutes ago, zCommander said:

 

My comment wasn't about TH. But apparently your mind automatically drifts to TH...lol

are you drunk? You were responding to a post directly and only about Heinicke with the post I then quoted and responded to

[Voice_of_Reason]

On 9/18/2022 at 4:44 PM, Warhead36 said:

Wentz along with the WRs are the best part of this team right now. He has his ups and downs sure but this team has so many other problems right now. I think we can say QB is mostly solidified for the time being. Of course we'd all love a Mahomes or Allen but those guys are once in a generation. 

And as I've pointed out before in other threads, you have to get lucky to get one of them to hit.  Mahomes was the 10th pick and picked behind several other prospects.  So was Allen.  

 

Burrow was the #1 #1, but he's having an AWFUL start to year 3.  

 

The last #1 overall QB who REALLY panned out to be one of the top QBs in the league for a decade was ... 

 

Peyton Manning. 

 

There have been a few other hits, but nothing remotely close to a top 5 QB for a long period of time:

 

2011 - Cam.  Was great for a short period of time.  Lived up to his #1 #1.  

2009 - Stafford.  Was very good for a long period of time, but never top-5

2004 - Eli Manning ** Probably the second best QB on this list behind Big Bro. 

2003 - Carson Palmer.  Was very good for a while.  

1998 - Peyton Manning.

 

Peyton was the only top 5 in the league QB picked #1 overall since 1998 for an extended period of time.  

 

Other #1 #1's:

 

2021: Trevor Lawrence (to early to tell)

2020: Joe Burrow (Still looks promising)

2019: Kyler Murray (not top 5 yet)

2018: Baker Baker the Touchdown Maker (Not top 5)

2016: Jared Goff (not top 5)

2015: Jaemis Winston (Not top 5)

2012: Andrew Luck (Was looking good, now out of the league)

2010: Sam Bradford (Not top 5)

2007: JaMarcus Russell (One of the biggest busts in NFL history)

2005: Alex Smith (Not top 5)

2002: David Carr (Not top 5)

2001: Michael Vick (He was a comet twice.  I don't know where you really put him.  At his best, he was top 5)

1999: Tim Couch (Not top 5)

Then we get to Peyton Manning.  

 

Finding "that guy" is often just luck.  Herbert wasn't supposed to be better than Burrow and Tua.  And he might be better than both.  Shrug. 

[zCommander]

36 minutes ago, Conn said:

are you drunk? You were responding to a post directly and only about Heinicke with the post I then quoted and responded to

 

SIP posted Wentz Stats. Warhead made it into a TH thing. I was putting the train back on track since it was derailed by the whole TH comment. Now you are all caught up. 

[Califan007 The Constipated]

6 hours ago, Conn said:

the standard for Heinicke was winning games? Did anyone tell him? 

For me, the standard for every QB we trot out there is winning games. The biggest reason I love Wentz’s stats is because I can realistically see it leading to more wins. 

[Califan007 The Constipated]

9 hours ago, HigSkin said:

I think we'll all take this ranking and may be movement with Cousins and Allen playing tonight but...

Cousins is no threat of surpassing Wentz tonight lol…

[Conn]

27 minutes ago, zCommander said:

SIP posted Wentz Stats. Warhead made it into a TH thing. I was putting the train back on track since it was derailed by the whole TH comment. Now you are all caught up. 

Can you stop with this BS? It’s obvious what you were doing and just like throughout the offseason you want to post about Heinicke under the guise of a post about Wentz. It’s disingenuous. You weren’t putting anything back on track, you don’t have some duty to do that when someone jokes about Heinicke—you just couldn’t resist after someone, well, made a joke about Heinicke. This was the sequence of events:

 

8 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

And there are still fans who prefer Taylor Heinicke "lolol"

 

8 hours ago, zCommander said:

To the fans stats won't matter if we can't win games. 

 

6 hours ago, Conn said:

the standard for Heinicke was winning games? Did anyone tell him? 

I was also making a joke. It’s easy for everyone to see what caused you to react and respond, why you did so, and what you were implying. Stop insulting everyone’s intelligence, or learn to ignore the jokes about Heinicke. 

[Warhead36]

34 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

And as I've pointed out before in other threads, you have to get lucky to get one of them to hit.  Mahomes was the 10th pick and picked behind several other prospects.  So was Allen.  

 

Burrow was the #1 #1, but he's having an AWFUL start to year 3.  

 

The last #1 overall QB who REALLY panned out to be one of the top QBs in the league for a decade was ... 

 

Peyton Manning. 

 

There have been a few other hits, but nothing remotely close to a top 5 QB for a long period of time:

 

2011 - Cam.  Was great for a short period of time.  Lived up to his #1 #1.  

2009 - Stafford.  Was very good for a long period of time, but never top-5

2004 - Eli Manning ** Probably the second best QB on this list behind Big Bro. 

2003 - Carson Palmer.  Was very good for a while.  

1998 - Peyton Manning.

 

Peyton was the only top 5 in the league QB picked #1 overall since 1998 for an extended period of time.  

 

Other #1 #1's:

 

2021: Trevor Lawrence (to early to tell)

2020: Joe Burrow (Still looks promising)

2019: Kyler Murray (not top 5 yet)

2018: Baker Baker the Touchdown Maker (Not top 5)

2016: Jared Goff (not top 5)

2015: Jaemis Winston (Not top 5)

2012: Andrew Luck (Was looking good, now out of the league)

2010: Sam Bradford (Not top 5)

2007: JaMarcus Russell (One of the biggest busts in NFL history)

2005: Alex Smith (Not top 5)

2002: David Carr (Not top 5)

2001: Michael Vick (He was a comet twice.  I don't know where you really put him.  At his best, he was top 5)

1999: Tim Couch (Not top 5)

Then we get to Peyton Manning.  

 

Finding "that guy" is often just luck.  Herbert wasn't supposed to be better than Burrow and Tua.  And he might be better than both.  Shrug. 

Yep. Its all about getting a guy with talent, work ethic, but then also putting him in a franchise where he can succeed.

 

Take Mahomes for example. Uber talented for sure, but also plays for an all time great coach in Reid. Plays with guys like Kelce and Hill among others early on. And the Chiefs are a solid well run organization with stability at ownership and FO. On the flip side in that same draft class you have Trebisky who goes to the dog doo doo Bears who can't develop a QB worth a lick. Now I'm not saying Trebisky would be a stud if he went to KC, but most likely Mahomes isn't anywhere near as good if he goes to Chicago.

 

Allen is another example. Buffalo committed to him right from the get go. Good ownership and coach that stuck by him, allowed him to develop, and then went out and got pieces for him(Diggs, Beasley etc.). In that same draft class you have Darnold who was just as highly rated if not more so but he went to the Jets and...well yeah.

 

Jackson also. Ravens went all in on him as soon as they made him starter. He probably would have been a bust if he went to....well us for example.

 

Some guys though are just so special they'd have been great anywhere. Like Manning, or Stafford(I mean not as good as Manning but the guy took the friggin Lions to the playoffs mutliple times. One year in a legit organization and he wins a ring).

[zCommander]

1 hour ago, Conn said:

Can you stop with this BS? It’s obvious what you were doing and just like throughout the offseason you want to post about Heinicke under the guise of a post about Wentz. It’s disingenuous. You weren’t putting anything back on track, you don’t have some duty to do that when someone jokes about Heinicke—you just couldn’t resist after someone, well, made a joke about Heinicke. This was the sequence of events:

I was also making a joke. It’s easy for everyone to see what caused you to react and respond, why you did so, and what you were implying. Stop insulting everyone’s intelligence, or learn to ignore the jokes about Heinicke. 

 

All I was saying was jokes aside let's worry about stats actually translating to wins instead. Kirk had good numbers here too. Just don't want a repeat of that with nothing to show for. 

 

Grind it out or throw bombs as long as we win. That is the ultimate goal. 

 

 

Edited September 20, 2022 by zCommander

[Zim489]

Thank Christ it’s not Kirk any more. Might be the worst big game player in sports history. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

14 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Allen is another example. Buffalo committed to him right from the get go. Good ownership and coach that stuck by him, allowed him to develop, and then went out and got pieces for him(Diggs, Beasley etc.). In that same draft class you have Darnold who was just as highly rated if not more so but he went to the Jets and...well yeah.

This fanbase would have run Allen out on a rail after his first year.  There is absolutely no desire here anymore to see anybody develop.  Young was rookie of the goddamn year, played 6 bad games and got hurt, and the way people talk about him, you'd think he couldn't play at all.  

 

Davis is in his second year as a raw LB, and folks want to run him out of town.  

 

If you don't come here and are all-pro immediately, you're labeled a bust immediately.

 

I get the 30 years of suffering, but the Bills actually had it worse than we did from a wins perspective since their last SB.

 

People forget this: The Bills were horrendous for YEARS.  They had a post-Kelly "blip" when they had Bledsoe for 1 good year, but from 2000 - 2019, they didn't have a single 10 win season, and only 3 9 win seasons.  And didn't make the playoffs from 2000 - 2017.  Both of those streaks are actually WORSE than ours, and ours are pathetic.  

 

There was no indication the Bills were going to be a good organization when they drafted Allen.  They hired what seems like the right folks, they let him develop, and it's worked out well.  But they also didn't have any track record of success at all until Allen was drafted.

[Zim489]

2 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

This fanbase would have run Allen out on a rail after his first year.  There is absolutely no desire here anymore to see anybody develop. 

Don’t believe this what so ever. 

3 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Davis is in his second year as a raw LB, and folks want to run him out of town.  

I haven’t seen this anywhere. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

8 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

The difference is the 2016 offense was really bad in the redzone.  It was top 6 in yards, but middle of the pack in points.

 

This offense scores points in bunches.  It hasn't happened yet, but this offense will be better by the end of the year than the 2016 offense.  

 

The defense might be as bad.  But maybe they can pull themselves together a little bit and play about like they did for the 4 game winning streak last year.  That would be good enough.  And, given it's basically the same guys, I'd think that might be possible.

2 minutes ago, Zim489 said:

Don’t believe this what so ever. 

I haven’t seen this anywhere. 

What?  Surely you jest or you're drunk.  

28 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Some guys though are just so special they'd have been great anywhere. Like Manning, or Stafford(I mean not as good as Manning but the guy took the friggin Lions to the playoffs mutliple times. One year in a legit organization and he wins a ring).

Manning landed in a good spot, though, with a ton of offensive weapons already there, and a GM who had a track record of building championship caliber teams.  

 

Early Brady needed Belichick.  

 

Middle/late Brady could have literally gone to any team in the NFL and won.  

 

I always thought Stafford just had a raw deal in Detroit.  

[Zim489]

4 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

What?  Surely you jest or you're drunk.

Maybe you follow too many moron fans. Have legit not seen a single fan calling for Jamin to be ran out of town. 
 

As for a rebuild or patience with a rookie QB I don’t think you understand the younger fan base. They are yearning for a young QB to build around. They have seen mediocrity their entire lives. They see these teams rebuild across the league and compete in short time while we flounder around slightly under 500 for long stretches. You vastly underrate how many people would be patient. 

[Califan007 The Constipated]

10 minutes ago, Zim489 said:

Maybe you follow too many moron fans. Have legit not seen a single fan calling for Jamin to be ran out of town.

 

I see it nonstop, especially fans on Twitter.

[Voice_of_Reason]

8 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

No, restructuring... my understanding is that the back is non guaranteed and bloated like all the contracts these days. total of 3 years including this year would be my goal. 

Yeah, it doesn't quite work that way.  

 

This is Wentz's contract per Spotrac:

 

 

His guaranteed money runs out this year.  

 

The next 2 years, he counts 26 and 27 against the cap, which honestly isn't bad for a starting QB.  For comparison, Kirk Cousins counts $31M this year, $36M next year, and then there are 2 voided years of $12M and $6M in years he's not going to be on the team. 

 

If you want to reduce the cap hit, the only way to do that is to move money around, and in Wentz's case, that would mean an extension OR they would have to guarantee money and then kick it into voided years.  But one way or another, you're shifting the money into a future year.

 

If they wanted to take the remaining $53M, and restructure lets say half of it to a bonus, and spread it over 4 years, they could make the cap hit looks something like this:

 

$29M Bonus, paid immediately. Would hit 7.25 over each of 4 years.   Remaining $24M spread as salary over 2 years, So they could take a $19.25 hit for the next 2 years, then $7.25 the 2 years after that but Wentz would only play 2 of them. They could be even more aggressive, and convert virtually all of it to a bonus, let's say they give him 40M in bonus, so it would be $10M/Year on the bonus, which would mean the cap hit for the next 2 years would be ~$16M, but then they would have 2 $10M cap hits after his contract expires.

 

The fact is, with only 2 years left, a restructure is very unlikely.

 

What's much more likely is they extend him for another 3 years, which gives them 5 years to play with, and probably 7 with voidable years, and then they could probably reduce his cap hit to somewhere about $10-$15M for the first couple years, then it would balloon into the 30's or 40's after that.  

 

 

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

14 minutes ago, Zim489 said:

Maybe you follow too many moron fans. Have legit not seen a single fan calling for Jamin to be ran out of town. 
 

As for a rebuild or patience with a rookie QB I don’t think you understand the younger fan base. They are yearning for a young QB to build around. They have seen mediocrity their entire lives. They see these teams rebuild across the league and compete in short time while we flounder around slightly under 500 for long stretches. You vastly underrate how many people would be patient. 

That's hogwash that you've talked yourself into because of your crystal ball of drafted QBs. This fanbase lost patience 10 years ago.  For good reason, I might add.  

 

Younger fans aren't yearning for anything other than something resembling a good time, fun offense, and wins. They don't really care how they get it. In the last 15 years, we drafted Jason Campbell, who in his first year was labeled a slow moron, Griffin (who was a special case), Cousins, who a lot of fans wanted out of here and Haskins.  

 

There was an anti-whoever movement almost immediately for ALL of them except Griffin.  

 

Haskins was drafted in 2019.  There wasn't exactly a big movement to prop him up.  He played badly in his first game, and I had to come on here and elsewhere and declare that one half of bad football didn't mean anything in either direction.  I was SHOCKED how many people had their minds made up after 1 half of football for a guy who came in off the bench.  

 

If he keeps up the pace he's on, Wentz will throw for 40-50 TDs, and there will be movements to build a statue to him, and young fans and old will love it.  And some of his mistakes will become "Wentz being Wentz."  

 

 

[srtman04]

Just now, Voice_of_Reason said:

That's hogwash that you've talked yourself into because of your crystal ball of drafted QBs. This fanbase lost patience 10 years ago.  For good reason, I might add.  

 

Younger fans aren't yearning for anything other than something resembling a good time, fun offense, and wins. They don't really care how they get it. In the last 15 years, we drafted Jason Campbell, who in his first year was labeled a slow moron, Griffin (who was a special case), Cousins, who a lot of fans wanted out of here and Haskins.  

 

There was an anti-whoever movement almost immediately for ALL of them except Griffin.  

 

Haskins was drafted in 2019.  There wasn't exactly a big movement to prop him up.  He played badly in his first game, and I had to come on here and elsewhere and declare that one half of bad football didn't mean anything in either direction.  I was SHOCKED how many people had their minds made up after 1 half of football for a guy who came in off the bench.  

 

If he keeps up the pace he's on, Wentz will throw for 40-50 TDs, and there will be movements to build a statue to him, and young fans and old will love it.  And some of his mistakes will become "Wentz being Wentz."  

 

 

 

When was the last time we have a QB throw 40 - 50 TD's in a single season?   '91 Superbowl Team?  

[Skinsinparadise]

8 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

The difference is the 2016 offense was really bad in the redzone.  It was top 6 in yards, but middle of the pack in points.

 

This offense scores points in bunches.  It hasn't happened yet, but this offense will be better by the end of the year than the 2016 offense.  

 

The defense might be as bad.  But maybe they can pull themselves together a little bit and play about like they did for the 4 game winning streak last year.  That would be good enough. 

 

2016 -- 3rd in yards.   6th so far this year.  Agree better in the red zone.  Weaker run game so far IMO.   Defense might be even worse.   They got picked apart by arguably two mediocre Qbs but its early.