The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[mistertim]

10 minutes ago, DJHJR86 said:

 

 

 

You don't say things like this if he's just a year away from potentially stepping in and being the guy.

 

They don't need Howell to be the guy right now, since they're hoping Wentz works out. The most likely scenario is TH is backup this season, he'll be gone next season and Howell will be the #2, and then everything will depend on how Wentz plays and how good Howell looks. I'd be pretty shocked if Ron came out and said anything different, given that they hope Wentz is a long term answer. Doesn't mean Howell wouldn't potentially be ready to start next season if need be.

[NickyJ]

I for one am shocked that Rivera hasn't shown his confidence in his 5th round rookie QBs career and staked his reputation on him after 3 preseason games.

[Conn]

45 minutes ago, DJHJR86 said:

 

 

 

You don't say things like this if he's just a year away from potentially stepping in and being the guy.

Well, you do say things like that if you want to publicly be 110% on board with Wentz, regardless of what you think privately. But yeah, it wouldn’t be out of bounds to think that a 5th rounder, no matter how talented, might ideally need multiple years of development. 

[skinny21]

5 minutes ago, Conn said:

Well, you do say things like that if you want to publicly be 110% on board with Wentz, regardless of what you think privately. But yeah, it wouldn’t be out of bounds to think that a 5th rounder, no matter how talented, might ideally need multiple years of development. 

Why is it different with Howell vs 1st round rookies?  Is it because he’s coming from an air raid offense?

I mean, I get that 1st rounders are usually given the reins earlier, have a longer leash, and in some (maybe even rare?) cases ran pro-style offenses.  And I get that with Wentz on board and the pressure of this being RR’s 3rd year and 1st year of re-branding, Howell will sit. 

[mistertim]

16 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

Why is it different with Howell vs 1st round rookies?  Is it because he’s coming from an air raid offense?

I mean, I get that 1st rounders are usually given the reins earlier, have a longer leash, and in some (maybe even rare?) cases ran pro-style offenses.  And I get that with Wentz on board and the pressure of this being RR’s 3rd year and 1st year of re-branding, Howell will sit. 

 

I think it's mostly about the resources invested. If you spend a 1st on a QB that means you expect him to be your franchise guy, so there are more expectations and more pressure to get him up to speed and on the field as soon as reasonably possible. With a 5th rounder you don't have those factors to worry about.

 

I think the first sentence could be more about why Howell fell to the 5th round than anything else. There are probably several reasons, but I think the biggest was likely the perception that he had a "down" 2021 even though he basically lost all of the weapons he had from 2020 including super productive RBs and WRs. 

[Koolblue13]

This season we get the offense right, next year we restructure Wentz to get a bunch of cap, Howell takes over as QB2 and we attack our defense, while filling whatever holes may open on offense. 

[Thinking Skins]

Howell can't start until he can eat a steak 

[Conn]

3 hours ago, skinny21 said:

Why is it different with Howell vs 1st round rookies?  Is it because he’s coming from an air raid offense?

I mean, I get that 1st rounders are usually given the reins earlier, have a longer leash, and in some (maybe even rare?) cases ran pro-style offenses.  And I get that with Wentz on board and the pressure of this being RR’s 3rd year and 1st year of re-branding, Howell will sit. 

I’m going to keep this to the recent modern era for obvious reasons, let’s say the last ten years or so. The NFL game, it’s connection to the college game and schemes, and even scouting itself has changed so much just in that time frame. So let’s keep it relevant:
 

Just looking at it out of context, in a macro sense—anytime you pin any sort of hopes on a QB drafted in the 3rd/4th/5th (or even earlier honestly), what you’re doing is willfully betting against the entire NFL’s cumulative scouting ability. And don’t get me wrong, I don’t mean to say it’s impossible to hit on a guy—it happens at other positions all the time, if still infrequently. But at QB, it’s really tough to hit in those rounds. I mean hell, even the highly drafted guys bust more often than not—nevermind turning into true franchise guys. Usually there is one fatal flaw or narrative that drops an otherwise promising guy (aka a future “hit”) into the mid rounds—and once he isn’t a 1st or 2nd round guy, it almost doesn’t matter where a guy is drafted in those mid rounds. The hit rate is almost equally low all over after the first round or two, and it generally depends on how deep their respective draft is in non-QB talent, team needs of the QB-hungry teams, and of course the evaluation itself and the attached red flags that led to the fall. 
 

What you’ll find amid most of the few 3rd/4th/5th round success stories is an obvious reason a guy fell, something that the entire NFL bought into or valued that led to the fall. It means despite the tools they do have, every single team passed on them many times—the hit rate is so low that the exceptions kind of prove the rule.

 

Russ-this one’s famous by now. Short, during an era before the obvious value of young mobile QBs was established. Really talented top of the draft at QB that year, too.

 

Foles-not really a ”hit” minus one magical SB-winning hot streak that defined his otherwise lame career. We’d all take it of course, but he wasn’t a franchise QB. Still included him to head off anyone “actchually”-ing me.
 

Dak-had a DUI before the draft that dropped him.

 

Kirk-came out in a hyped QB class that was stacked at the top, and didn’t have the dynamic personality to force a team to fall in love with him.

 

Mills-story is still being written, not really ready to call this a “hit” at a franchise QB level but has definitely been good value so far. I’d say this is a situation of a guy without any specific standout traits who was just all-around professional and capable, like Cousins, falling in a top-heavy class once most teams had filled their urgent QB need. 

That’s basically it. Guys who were physically not prototypical, had off-field issues, or just didn’t stand out in crowded QB classes where the QB-hungry teams already ate higher in the draft. And then a couple guys who aren’t really “hits” even though I mentioned them.
 

Basically just Russ, Dak, and Kirk. Nobody truly stand-out has developed from the middle rounds in quite a while. There’s no such thing as the league being “due” for another mid round hit, but it’s always possible.

 

So the question needs to be—what were Howell’s fatal flaws, what’s the narrative for his potential rise to stardom that the entirety of the NFL missed? (except MAYBE us—we let him fall to the fifth, but because we had committed hugely to Wentz it’s impossible to know if we technically had a 2nd round grade on him or something and eventually just had to take him. And along similar lines, it’s technically possible that a team who was already invested in a 1st round QB or veteran franchise QB also had him ranked much higher—we’ll never know)

 

KDawg has spelled it out a couple times, but a misunderstanding or overly-weighted value placed on his “drop” in production his final season could be it, along with his height. And this was a very deep non-QB class as well, meaning teams had what they believed were better uses for their picks at almost every turn. 
 

I think there’s another potential aspect to it all, and it has to do with the environment and context of the QB class he came out in—this QB class was so weak overall that I think every single prospect was nitpicked to death as much as they would be in an equally STRONG class, maybe even more—as teams tried to find their diamond in the rough, I almost think they film-grinded their way out of drafting any of them too highly, out of uncertainty. So they all fell even more than expected and created an almost unique value vortex at the position that sucked Howell himself all the way down into the 5th round, to a team that really couldn’t justify taking him any higher.
 

I’m not saying this is definitely what happened—that would be a little pie in the sky. But if Howell is the next Cousins or Dak, I’m saying that these are potential narratives that in retrospect will make a lot of sense and explain his fall, despite the potential.  

 

Edited August 31, 2022 by Conn

[skinny21]

4 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

I think it's mostly about the resources invested. If you spend a 1st on a QB that means you expect him to be your franchise guy, so there are more expectations and more pressure to get him up to speed and on the field as soon as reasonably possible. With a 5th rounder you don't have those factors to worry about.

 

I think the first sentence could be more about why Howell fell to the 5th round than anything else. There are probably several reasons, but I think the biggest was likely the perception that he had a "down" 2021 even though he basically lost all of the weapons he had from 2020 including super productive RBs and WRs. 

Yeah, it’s your first sentence that gets me - equating round drafted to how much developing they need.  

 

@Conn Thanks for the breakdown.  To your point, the odds are long, and so I’m not putting much in the way of expectations on Howell, but man… he’s got the arm talent, work ethic, apparently the football IQ and obviously plus mobility.  Would love to see him earn the starting gig in the next couple years.

[88Comrade2000]

11 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Just listened to Keim's appearance on the Junkies from yesterday, it wasn't in that segment, unless I am losing my mind and I missed it (which is possible ) they didn't even talk about Howell.

I was wrong. My brain was thinking Keim but it was Rick Snider.

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, skinny21 said:

Yeah, it’s your first sentence that gets me - equating round drafted to how much developing they need.  

 

I think it might be less about how much development they need and more about how quickly the team can find out if he's the guy or not. Also don't discount pressure from the FO and ownership. Mahomes sat his first year in the league, as have others. Though, in general, yes a 1st round talent at QB is probably more likely to be ready to start sooner. But not always.

[AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy]

Of course, Ron is gonna say that TH is our backup QB. It protects Howell, it supports Wentz, and it satisfies TH.

 

Howell is gonna take TH’s before midpoint in the season.

 

We finally drafted a QB that could be a legit starter in this league and a lot of you are scared to play him? Come on, now. Put the man out there as QB 2 and let him get some live bullets. I will live with the mistakes. 

Edited September 1, 2022 by AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy

[88Comrade2000]

3 hours ago, AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy said:

Of course, Ron is gonna say that TH is our backup QB. It protects Howell, it supports Wentz, and it satisfies TH.

 

Howell is gonna take TH’s before midpoint in the season.

 

We finally drafted a QB that could be a legit starter in this league and a lot of you are scared to play him? Come on, now. Put the man out there as QB 2 and let him get some live bullets. I will live with the mistakes. 

Uh, if we have to go Sam; then Carson is either injured or a bust.  If Sam had to play for an extended period; he would have to play lights out, to be considered in 23.

 

If we have to have another qb in 23; Dan will be looking at the draft.

[Peregrine]

11 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

They don't need Howell to be the guy right now, since they're hoping Wentz works out. The most likely scenario is TH is backup this season, he'll be gone next season and Howell will be the #2, and then everything will depend on how Wentz plays and how good Howell looks. I'd be pretty shocked if Ron came out and said anything different, given that they hope Wentz is a long term answer. Doesn't mean Howell wouldn't potentially be ready to start next season if need be.

Thats reversed, they are planning for Wentz to workout, and hoping that Howell can develop into something serviceable.  Nobody competent is throwing a cheap okay backup QB to the curb for a 5th round bad QB in a horrible QB class unless he balls out in practice for the next year.  And if Ron isnt fired after this season theres an almost zero percent chance Howell is "ready to start next season" in any NFL sense of the words.

[KDawg]

4 hours ago, Peregrine said:

Thats reversed, they are planning for Wentz to workout, and hoping that Howell can develop into something serviceable.  Nobody competent is throwing a cheap okay backup QB to the curb for a 5th round bad QB in a horrible QB class unless he balls out in practice for the next year.  And if Ron isnt fired after this season theres an almost zero percent chance Howell is "ready to start next season" in any NFL sense of the words.

Fifth round bad QB? And TH is okay? Hey, your agenda is showing.

[AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy]

7 hours ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

Uh, if we have to go Sam; then Carson is either injured or a bust.  If Sam had to play for an extended period; he would have to play lights out, to be considered in 23.

 

If we have to have another qb in 23; Dan will be looking at the draft.

There’s scenarios you didn’t include in your doomsday hypothetical. Wentz could get shaken up for a series, stomach bug for a half, or his helmet could ****ing fly off. 😆

 

What I’m talking about has nothing to do with Wentz. I’m pushing back on the narrative that Howell should be wrapped in bubble wrap for an entire season. 
 

I think he will earn the backup spot soon. And I think he will play this year when/if called upon. 

 

 

Edited September 1, 2022 by AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy

[London Kev]

13 hours ago, Conn said:

KDawg has spelled it out a couple times, but a misunderstanding or overly-weighted value placed on his “drop” in production his final season could be it, along with his height. And this was a very deep non-QB class as well, meaning teams had what they believed were better uses for their picks at almost every turn. 

 

I haven't looked into it nearly as much as you guys, but I always assumed it was for exactly these two reasons with an emphasis on his height. I think that he's generously listed as 6'1".

 

I noticed in the last pre season game that he had a few (three?) passes knocked down at the line of scrimmage. Obviously you can't read too much into that, and I really like him as our future QB, but it's something to watch out for IMO.

[KDawg]

5 minutes ago, London Kev said:

 

I haven't looked into it nearly as much as you guys, but I always assumed it was for exactly these two reasons with an emphasis on his height. I think that he's generously listed as 6'1".

 

I noticed in the last pre season game that he had a few (three?) passes knocked down at the line of scrimmage. Obviously you can't read too much into that, and I really like him as our future QB, but it's something to watch out for IMO.

He didn’t really have a drop in production. That’s a bad take. He had a change in production. He rushed more than he had before and lost 2 RBs and 2 top receivers and his OL was… not good to be kind. 
 

He looked more pedestrian than he was stat wise and he didn’t even look pedestrian.

[London Kev]

2 minutes ago, KDawg said:

He didn’t really have a drop in production. That’s a bad take. He had a change in production. He rushed more than he had before and lost 2 RBs and 2 top receivers and his OL was… not good to be kind. 
 

He looked more pedestrian than he was stat wise and he didn’t even look pedestrian.

 

Yeah, no argument from me on this. I actually meant to include the "misunderstanding or overly-weighted value placed on" part of Conn's post when I bolded, but missed it off by mistake.

[Skinsinparadise]

Standig

 

 

[Est.1974]

In other news Wilson gets a 5 year 245mil extension in Denver. 

[Skinsinparadise]

4 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

In other news Wilson gets a 5 year 245mil extension in Denver. 

 

Will see if it ends up a good move, I suspect it does.  Wilson IMO is elite.  He's already at a minimum made Denver the toast of the national media and the NFL TV people want to see that team play -- 5 prime time games for Denver.   Cap should be going up to adjust. 

 

 

Standig

[mistertim]

9 hours ago, Peregrine said:

Thats reversed, they are planning for Wentz to workout, and hoping that Howell can develop into something serviceable.  Nobody competent is throwing a cheap okay backup QB to the curb for a 5th round bad QB in a horrible QB class unless he balls out in practice for the next year.  And if Ron isnt fired after this season theres an almost zero percent chance Howell is "ready to start next season" in any NFL sense of the words.

 

Heinicke is signed through this season. I doubt they bring him back next year because if Howell continues to progress there's no purpose in having TH. Howell is younger and more talented and he has upside, whereas Heinicke is who he is and will never be more than that.

 

You really need to kick this Heinicke Heroin addiction.

Edited September 1, 2022 by mistertim

[DJHJR86]

21 hours ago, mistertim said:

They don't need Howell to be the guy right now, since they're hoping Wentz works out. The most likely scenario is TH is backup this season, he'll be gone next season and Howell will be the #2, and then everything will depend on how Wentz plays and how good Howell looks. I'd be pretty shocked if Ron came out and said anything different, given that they hope Wentz is a long term answer. Doesn't mean Howell wouldn't potentially be ready to start next season if need be.

 

Heinicke will be gone after this year.  But what if Wentz doesn't work out?  

 

 

 

 

 

 

I am not saying I don't think Howell could eventually be the guy.  Local reporters and the head coach have made it abundantly clear that that is a ways away, however.  

 

[Warhead36]

Way too much talk about a guy who in all likelihood won't see a single meaningful snap this year.