The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randal 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Fromm battle for QB2 and so begins the Handsome Harem for Hartman

[skinny21]

I think it probably just depends on how you classify “weapon”.  Guys like Daniel Jones and Marcus Mariota - their legs could certainly be considered weapons, even if they’re not in that elite tier like Lamar and Hunt, though you could argue that’s because those two (Jones/Mariota) aren’t very good passers, lol.  Whereas some other guys use their legs at times (sometimes even on called qb runs), but they’re more assets - guys like Cousins, Stafford in his prime, and Carr.  I’d put Howell closer to the Daniel Jones level.  Now whether he uses (or is called upon to use) his legs to that extent… we’ll see.  I think I’d prefer him to follow the path of the examples I gave who use them as an asset - becoming a high level passer who’s legs buy time and occasional first downs.  His legs could help his development/learning curve though in the short term.

[mistertim]

This "asset vs weapon" debate seems mostly semantic to me. Is there a specific number of yards and/or TDs a QB has to rush for before his legs leave "asset" territory and enter "weapon" territory? A specific number of designed runs or RPOs per game? Yards per game?

[Warhead36]

Asset: Someone who can use their legs to pick up some first downs and keep drives going.

 

Weapon: Someone you actually design plays/offense around his legs. This would be Jackson/Hurts territory, and Allen as well(not as much last year I don't think).

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

Asset: Someone who can use their legs to pick up some first downs and keep drives going.

 

Weapon: Someone you actually design plays/offense around his legs. This would be Jackson/Hurts territory, and Allen as well(not as much last year I don't think).

 

Yeah, and I get that. I'm just trying to figure out where the line is. I'm sure Howell will have some designed runs, RPOs, etc. though the offense won't be designed around his legs like it is with a guy like Lamar, but IMO Lamar is basically a one-off. I don't see Hurts and Lamar as all that similar either (which isn't a bad thing...I'd take Hurts over Lamar).

[Koolblue13]

28 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Yeah, and I get that. I'm just trying to figure out where the line is. I'm sure Howell will have some designed runs, RPOs, etc. though the offense won't be designed around his legs like it is with a guy like Lamar, but IMO Lamar is basically a one-off. I don't see Hurts and Lamar as all that similar either (which isn't a bad thing...I'd take Hurts over Lamar).

That's how I figure it. I think there will be enough RPO and designed runs to keep defenses honest. 

 

A QBs legs can be considered a weapon, even if he's a pass first QB.

[Warhead36]

1 hour ago, mistertim said:

 

Yeah, and I get that. I'm just trying to figure out where the line is. I'm sure Howell will have some designed runs, RPOs, etc. though the offense won't be designed around his legs like it is with a guy like Lamar, but IMO Lamar is basically a one-off. I don't see Hurts and Lamar as all that similar either (which isn't a bad thing...I'd take Hurts over Lamar).

Another caveat I'll add: a weapon is someone defenses legitimately have to gameplan and downright fear using their legs.

 

I think Howell is a good runner and will make some plays, but I doubt we'll design big chunks of our offense around his mobility and I don't think opposing DCs will be kept up at night in fear of Howell putting up 120 yards rushing on them.

[MrJL]

2 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

Yeah, and I get that. I'm just trying to figure out where the line is. I'm sure Howell will have some designed runs, RPOs, etc. though the offense won't be designed around his legs like it is with a guy like Lamar, but IMO Lamar is basically a one-off. I don't see Hurts and Lamar as all that similar either (which isn't a bad thing...I'd take Hurts over Lamar).

 

I think maybe the line is if he can get past the first wave of defenders, can he outrun most of the rest of the defense

[Skinsinparadise]

A lot of negativity about Howell and this team's prospects.  I was listening to Joe Thomas on Sheehan the other day and he more or less said it is criminal for this team's fans -- for this team to ride with Sam Howell as the guy.

 

Should be an interesting season.  I am optimistic about Howell.  But I grant you don't know until it unfolds so I get the wildcard aspect to it.  But this team seems to be getting grief that other teams like the Falcons aren't getting for riding with a young unproven QB.

 

lol, part of it could be is there a franchise in the NFL more doomed at QB, then this team?  So betting against them at this spot tends to be a safe bet. 

 

Heck this team on the Qb spot was a punchline on Married With Children as far back as the 1990s.  And if it was comedic in a sad way then, imagine the comedy material as to this team on the spot after all these years now.

 

 

 

Edited May 11, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

Another caveat I'll add: a weapon is someone defenses legitimately have to gameplan and downright fear using their legs.

 

I think Howell is a good runner and will make some plays, but I doubt we'll design big chunks of our offense around his mobility and I don't think opposing DCs will be kept up at night in fear of Howell putting up 120 yards rushing on them.

 

Yeah that makes sense to me.

 

44 minutes ago, MrJL said:

 

I think maybe the line is if he can get past the first wave of defenders, can he outrun most of the rest of the defense

 

I can get this too, though by this rationale Hurts isn't really in that category either. He's quick and has good vision as a runner, but he's a 4.6 guy so he's unlikely to outrun all that many DBs.

[RandyHolt]

From what we saw in his 1 game last year IIRC he was more a pocket guy and Ron played conservative. I want to see EB use Howell as a weapon aggressively duh but with our 2 sack happy projected OT's, its projecting to be tough sledding on green painted fedex dirt for any pocket passer 5-7 drop plays we have under C next year.

 

I call bunk that it has to be designed runs though - just figure out how to use his legs in the passing game to evade the rush. Can he roll left and throw? I love the Rypien Sprint Toss Deep or whatever that short sprint left and fire deep right was called. I liked the Manning stretch RPOs. The Cousins boot.

 

I predict we will be running 60/40 and on D calling a ton of bend dont break on D to burn up the clock and shorten the game. The way to win may not be letting Howell throw 40 ties a game sadly. At least not until he finds his NFL footing behind our multi-tool OL. I suspect Ron will still maintain some control over play calls.

Edited May 12, 2023 by RandyHolt

[CjSuAvE22]

Lol critics dunno anything. Offense can’t get worse than last year believe me. 

Edited May 11, 2023 by CjSuAvE22

[FootballZombie]

9 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

I predict we will be running 60/40 and on D calling a ton of bend dont break on D to burn up the clock and shorten the game. The way to win may not be letting Howell throw 40 ties a game sadly. At least not until he finds his NFL footing because our multi-tool OL.

 

I agree with this part

 

I had no problem predicting we would be a rushing predicated offense last season given the history of Turner and available personnel.

 

This year with a dude with no history at the OC helm, I have no idea what the O will look like, but the O-line might still mandate a more run heavy approach from both the team as a whole and the QB spot.

 

[RandyHolt]

58 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

I agree with this part

 

I had no problem predicting we would be a rushing predicated offense last season given the history of Turner and available personnel.

 

This year with a dude with no history at the OC helm, I have no idea what the O will look like, but the O-line might still mandate a more run heavy approach from both the team as a whole and the QB spot.

 

 

I meant to add I am fully prepared for another year of zero hurry up offense to slow down the pass rush, throw a curve call at a D, keep a fat DL stuck on the field (The Butterfly Haynesworth Effect) etc. I expect RR will axe any ambitions of EB to run HU, much to my 2 decades long dismay.  Slow play for the 17-14 wins / coin flip games will be Ron's Recipe.

 

I do expect a big dose of WRs "runs" led by Samuel of course. WR screens. Get the DL running sideline to sideline and being unpredictable. I hope running up the gut 2x short pass will not be our offense. We all have the quiet expectation that we will see some of KCs creativity especially near the goal line but I am trying to reign in unrealistic expectations. Ron is still in charge.

Edited May 12, 2023 by RandyHolt

[MartinC]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

A lot of negativity about Howell and this team's prospects.  I was listening to Joe Thomas on Sheehan the other day and he more or less said it is criminal for this team's fans -- for this team to ride with Sam Howell as the guy.

 

Should be an interesting season.  I am optimistic about Howell.  But I grant you don't know until it unfolds so I get the wildcard aspect to it.  But this team seems to be getting grief that other teams like the Falcons aren't getting for riding with a young unproven QB.

 

lol, part of it could be is there a franchise in the NFL more doomed at QB, then this team?  So betting against them at this spot tends to be a safe bet. 

 

Heck this team on the Qb spot was a punchline on Married With Children as far back as the 1990s.  And if it was comedic in a sad way then, imagine the comedy material as to this team on the spot after all these years now.

 

 

 

Betting a young QB will fail to become a good NFL starter is a safe bet. It’s playing the odds - more bust (or become replacement level starters or career backups) than become good NFL QBs.

 

I don’t think it’s physical skill set that will determine that with Howell though. I think he clearly has an NFL arm, decent accuracy and good mobility along with it. It’s between the ears that will determine his success - ability to consistently process and make good decisions.

[KDawg]

1 hour ago, MartinC said:

Betting a young QB will fail to become a good NFL starter is a safe bet. It’s playing the odds - more bust (or become replacement level starters or career backups) than become good NFL QBs.

 

I don’t think it’s physical skill set that will determine that with Howell though. I think he clearly has an NFL arm, decent accuracy and good mobility along with it. It’s between the ears that will determine his success - ability to consistently process and make good decisions.

To add: national guys who aren’t full time reporters like Joe Thomas don’t follow this team as close. And, Sam being drafted in the fifth, goes on the “pay no mind” list. Thomas probably hasn’t watched much of Sam. I don’t particularly care what any national reporters say about our team because in most cases we are more plugged in and aware than they are.

[Warhead36]

3 hours ago, CjSuAvE22 said:

Lol critics dunno anything. Offense can’t get worse than last year believe me. 

Yeah that's kinda my sentiment as well. I mean between Wentz and Heinicke we were legitimately a bottom 5 passing team save for like a couple of games. I don't think Howell could be much worse. If he's even mediocre, like 20th best in the league, that would be a pretty significant upgrade.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

3 hours ago, CjSuAvE22 said:

Lol critics dunno anything. Offense can’t get worse than last year believe me. 

 

2 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Yeah that's kinda my sentiment as well. I mean between Wentz and Heinicke we were legitimately a bottom 5 passing team save for like a couple of games. I don't think Howell could be much worse. If he's even mediocre, like 20th best in the league, that would be a pretty significant upgrade.

 

 

 

[Renegade7]

3 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Yeah that's kinda my sentiment as well. I mean between Wentz and Heinicke we were legitimately a bottom 5 passing team save for like a couple of games. I don't think Howell could be much worse. If he's even mediocre, like 20th best in the league, that would be a pretty significant upgrade.

 

This is the truth that I'm not suprised even folks outside our fanbase aren't putting two and two together on.

 

If we gonna roll with Howell, like plenty have mentioned, I expect an effort to protect him with running, defense, and keeping to his strengths to keep the chains moving, even if that's designed runs just to keep his confidence up.

 

Getting somewhere between the running QB we thought we had in Taylor and passing game we hoped we'd get with Wentz is absolutely and upgrade, those two were just that bad last year and lost games they shouldn't have because of it.  Very low bar for Howell, but if we ask him to throw 40 times a game, that's our fault and people deserve to lose their jobs for it.

[mistertim]

14 hours ago, RandyHolt said:

 

I predict we will be running 60/40 and on D calling a ton of bend dont break on D to burn up the clock and shorten the game. The way to win may not be letting Howell throw 40 ties a game sadly. At least not until he finds his NFL footing behind our multi-tool OL. I suspect Ron will still maintain some control over play calls.

 

This isn't realistic. The highest run play percentage last season was Chicago at 56.19% and that's with a running QB. Hell, even Tennessee barely ran more than they passed, and they have Derrick Henry.

 

Disagree about Ron and play calling. You don't bring in a guy like Bieniemy (and name him assistant head coach) and then take play calling duties away from him. Not happening. Ron will have final say over the overall game strategy but he's not going to hamstring Bieniemy on individual play calls.

Edited May 12, 2023 by mistertim

[zCommander]

NFL Team Passing Play Percentage

 

Rank	Team	2022	Last 3	Last 1	Home	Away	2021
1	Tampa Bay	67.88%	72.46%	85.00%	74.68%	60.79%	66.46%
2	LA Chargers	65.09%	61.62%	66.67%	65.39%	64.84%	62.50%
3	Minnesota	64.38%	59.78%	71.43%	63.38%	65.69%	58.54%
4	NY Jets	62.29%	67.61%	62.26%	62.08%	62.48%	63.32%
5	Cincinnati	62.29%	63.30%	73.02%	58.89%	64.91%	59.48%
6	Arizona	62.06%	61.66%	60.00%	62.66%	61.53%	56.44%
7	Miami	61.97%	60.89%	71.01%	59.25%	64.15%	59.71%
8	Kansas City	61.48%	59.14%	50.94%	65.75%	57.07%	62.36%
9	Houston	60.79%	61.86%	64.06%	61.83%	59.89%	58.42%
10	Indianapolis	60.20%	57.95%	52.86%	61.71%	58.93%	52.57%
11	Buffalo	59.44%	63.54%	69.35%	61.03%	57.96%	59.21%
12	Jacksonville	59.40%	69.49%	68.33%	61.04%	58.15%	61.87%
13	Seattle	59.35%	51.47%	60.32%	60.64%	58.01%	56.71%
14	Las Vegas	59.20%	58.92%	62.69%	57.06%	61.22%	62.88%
15	LA Rams	58.94%	47.37%	52.54%	60.71%	56.69%	59.31%
16	Denver	58.81%	57.67%	41.94%	56.19%	61.45%	56.08%
17	New England	57.75%	65.52%	64.06%	58.35%	57.27%	54.27%
18	Green Bay	56.61%	53.01%	50.88%	51.76%	61.22%	58.61%
19	Detroit	56.04%	57.59%	58.33%	56.56%	55.45%	59.56%
20	Pittsburgh	54.91%	48.28%	44.78%	54.49%	55.28%	63.44%
21	New Orleans	54.19%	40.45%	44.83%	51.42%	56.79%	51.47%
22	NY Giants	52.85%	61.20%	61.54%	49.49%	56.04%	60.10%
23	Washington	52.81%	44.50%	34.92%	52.74%	52.88%	55.42%
24	Dallas	52.70%	56.92%	63.33%	52.88%	52.54%	59.61%
25	Cleveland	52.33%	51.69%	62.07%	50.46%	54.10%	53.98%
26	San Francisco	51.35%	48.26%	46.67%	49.50%	53.89%	51.61%
27	Tennessee	50.91%	51.79%	45.83%	56.24%	46.05%	51.22%
28	Carolina	50.51%	42.39%	29.31%	49.41%	51.72%	58.86%
29	Philadelphia	50.26%	43.13%	55.56%	48.41%	52.45%	50.13%
30	Baltimore	49.82%	52.88%	46.97%	47.70%	51.41%	56.37%
31	Atlanta	44.71%	47.96%	47.76%	41.99%	47.86%	60.93%
32	Chicago	43.81%	54.09%	56.00%	44.55%	42.95%	55.81%

 

 

Edited May 12, 2023 by zCommander

[Koolblue13]

I love this trend of running the ball more. LOVE IT. iTs A pAsSiNg LeAgUe.

 

Run the ball and play aggressive defense.

 

I can't wait to watch @Voice_of_Reason head explode

[RandyHolt]

1 hour ago, mistertim said:

 

This isn't realistic. The highest run play percentage last season was Chicago at 56.19% and that's with a running QB. Hell, even Tennessee barely ran more than they passed, and they have Derrick Henry.

 

Disagree about Ron and play calling. You don't bring in a guy like Bieniemy (and name him assistant head coach) and then take play calling duties away from him. Not happening. Ron will have final say over the overall game strategy but he's not going to hamstring Bieniemy on individual play calls.

56 rounds up to 60. My days digging up stats have largely passed but I think you got my drift. We will TRY to run more than pass and if it works will be at ~60 in wins.

 

Overall game strategy includes offensive play calling run pass ration and tempo. Our week 1 O/U is THE lowest total on the board. That is realistic and reeks of exactly my prediction. BDB slow playing and Sam to not have the game decided on his arm.   I know I know new OC new owner the fans want action... as you say Ron will have final say and he will protect Sam. EB is handcuffed like every OC is league wide to the coaches overall approach on how to win.

Edited May 12, 2023 by RandyHolt

[Chris 44]

19 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

That's how I figure it. I think there will be enough RPO and designed runs to keep defenses honest. 

 

A QBs legs can be considered a weapon, even if he's a pass first QB.

You mean like TH?

 

 

 

Jesting KB, just want to keep you on your toes, don't want to get all lackadaisical and **** in the offseason.

[Conn]

30 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I love this trend of running the ball more. LOVE IT. iTs A pAsSiNg LeAgUe.

 

Run the ball and play aggressive defense.

 

I can't wait to watch @Voice_of_Reason head explode

 

What “it’s a passing league” really means is “it’s a QB league”. The only sustainably actual good teams that run the ball towards the top are getting a lot out of their QB in the running game. Yards and TD’s, and it opens things up schematically for the rest of the running game (and passing game). But it still boils down to being QB-centric…so I don’t think it’s really overcoming the “ItS a PaSsInG LeAgUe” thing, it’s just a twist on the formula. The offense running through and relying on some form of elite QB play is still present. 
 

The 49ers are really the only exception (it’s not like anybody wants to be the Titans). And Kyle Shanahan is special. And even still, they spent an astronomical amount to trade up and draft a QB who can contribute with his legs (that guy might be a bust now, but it’s the process that counts here). 
 

Anyways, I don’t think you’re 100% wrong exactly…I just think you’re too focused on the “passing” part of the equation when thinking about what does or doesn’t dominate the league offensively. Because even the teams who are running the most are generally doing it with massive rushing production and schematic assistance from their QB. So it’s still a QB dominant league. 

[mistertim]

33 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I love this trend of running the ball more. LOVE IT. iTs A pAsSiNg LeAgUe.

 

Run the ball and play aggressive defense.

 

I can't wait to watch @Voice_of_Reason head explode

 

Well, it is a passing league. That's not an opinion, it's fact if you look at the numbers.

 

3 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

56 rounds up to 60. My days digging up stats have largely passed but I think you got my drift. We will run more than pass.

 

Overall game strategy includes offensive play calling run pass ration and tempo. Our 1 game O/U is THE lowest total on the board. That IS realistic and reeks of exactly my prediction. BDB slow playing and Sam to not have the game decided on his arm.   I know I know new OC new owner the fans want action... as you say Ron will have final say.

 

You have to take into account the context. In this context rounding it up to 60 would put us way outside of anything even resembling the rest of the league. Again, even the Titans with a mediocre QB and Derrick Henry were still pretty much 50/50 pass/run ratio.

 

Yes, overall game strategy but not individual calls. I'm sure Ron wants Howell's first year as a full time starter to be as simple as possible and Bieniemy will do everything he can to make that happen, but at the end of the day the specifics of the play calling are going to be up to EB.