The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Ghost of]

2 minutes ago, ntotoro said:

ESPN has an SEC bias. They'll always push an SEC player, right or wrong. I'm not saying they're wrong, just saying...

Yeah that's been clear for awhile now, same with Lebron for over a decade now.  At least with SEC, they could push any given player or maybe even hype a team because it beat an SEC team. But last year was not the crowning achievement for the SEC, it's best win was not a great one (can't recall off the top of my head but it was really a weak OOC win). And even last year, the vaunted SEC giant of late, Georgia, was a cheap shot concussion on MHJr from losing against another B1G team (and was still a field goal away, as I recall, though 2022-23 is hazier now.)

[Llevron]

2 hours ago, Conn said:

No, that particular argument is basically a dog whistle to the people who say that defensive coaches generally prefer running QB’s because they personally scare them more in regular season gameplanning. It’s a well-known trope. So saying that the HC (who was a DC) would prefer the guy that would scare him the most in year 1 is not giving our decision-making group enough credit, is my only point. Any elite passer is automatically the hardest player on the field to defend. Obviously a smart decision-making group would prioritize drafting whoever they believe that will be—and weigh whether that’s in year 1, or year 2, or whatever. But yeah the dumb “former defensive coordinators tend to favor the guy who would scare them in game prep right now” is a long-standing argument and the implication is that for a guy like Quinn, it would be weighted heavier than long term potential as a passer. It’s just not giving our organization’s acquisition of a real GM enough credit. It’s poor reasoning whether we end up taking Daniels or not. If we take Daniels, it’ll be because Peters is betting that he becomes an elite passer longterm—not because Quinn thinks he’s the hardest to defend right now.

 

Ah well honestly we agree. I misunderstood you my bad 

[mistertim]

7 minutes ago, ntotoro said:

ESPN has an SEC bias. They'll always push an SEC player, right or wrong. I'm not saying they're wrong, just saying...

 

The shiny ("electric") running QBs also tend to get lots of hype in the lead up to the draft. Sometimes the hype bears fruit on draft day (Anthony Richardson) and sometimes it turns out to be BS (Malik Willis), but it tends to happen pretty regularly.

[SkinsFTW]

13 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I don't think any scouts make the case that they cracked the QB code.  Hindsight.  Foresight.  Whatever.

 

It feels like its been cracked here.  But outside of here on this thread with some not all, its still a mystery, I don't feel too many claim otherwise.

 

I don't believe that anyone here has claimed to have cracked the code. I've yet to see anybody say that McCarthy or Maye or even Williams are going to be AllPro. Nobody has said that they know for sure who is the next John Elway or Peyton Manning. Maybe you can find those posts though.

 

What many have been saying is that there is just no way that a QB with so many obvious negatives can be the best prospect or even 10th best prospect since Andrew Luck in 2012 and Sam Bradford in 2010.

 

Your post that I quoted said that those scouts believe that in real-time Daniels is a better prospect than all of the QBs since 2010 except for Luck, Burrow, Newton, and Lawrence. Some of them even have him ranked higher than those QBs. Lawrence almost loses out to Daniels. For real?

 

That is what I meant by hilarious.

 

Why doesn't anyone ever ask these guys who do you comp Daniels with, because it must obviously be something that you'd create in Madden. Like a combo of Montana/Vick? Or what, because all I see is Justin Fields/Mariota or a more elusive Alex Smith, who took years to be any good in the NFL and still got clowned in the playoffs.

 

All I've seen is them say he's possibly Lamar Lite, which is great, I guess, if you want to see regular season heroics when he's not injured.

 

My prediction is in 4 years they'll be making a similar claim about someone else and pretending all this never happened. "Daniels, oh yeah, that guy was just too reckless and was clearly overdrafted because of his outlier Heisman season on a stacked roster."

 

What are the odds of this outcome? I put it at 85/15.

 

 

[Kalu44]

38 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said:

This does ring true given their sudden scramble to meet with the vikings.

 

I suspect he met with the Pats, who didn't give him the "if you are there at 3 we take you" guarantee, and then met with us and also got no "you at 2" guarantee.

 

They shouldn't have assumed anything.  NOW I do NOT assume this is on Jayden.  This is on his agent being sloppy and ****y.

 

IF true (big if), this feeds into the ongoing fact that JD wants to be "wanted." Fragile ego, diva vibes? Small red flag there.

Edited April 19 by Kalu44

[Chump Bailey]

1 hour ago, mistertim said:

I actually really enjoy J.T.'s film breakdown and analyses, but he kinda sucks at predictions.

 

Lol, I just think his perspective along with Chris Simms adds a little bit more to the mix since they both are former pro QB's. 

[@DCGoldPants]

11 minutes ago, mistertim said:

Jayden seems like a good kid, but how can all of this bull**** be purely on his agent without any input from him? Seems a bit far fetched to me.

absolutely it could be. I doubt he's telling his agent to post emojis. If this is a problem still for him, I think Peters probably has given him a ring to gauge how much of a pain he's going to be.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

[CommanderInTheRye]

JP Finlay report on Peters’ decision process…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[The Consigliere]

19 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

You have some good takes.  And you give me a hard time for me giving you a hard time for getting some takes wrong in the past.  But the only reason why I gave you a hard time isn't for getting it wrong but you had almost no modifers on your points -- you had very absolute takes on some of those players when pushing your points.  So if that absolute take looks absolutely wrong in time.  It's memorable, that's all.  But as to getting things right and wrong, we all do.

 

You often make variations of a point of there are metrics-lines you won't cross.  And the fact that you won't cross them and others do cross them make your smarter or more disciplined by default.  But my comeback to that is I probably post more metrics on the draft thread than anyone.  I subscribe to PFF.  I put so many numbers on the draft thread that it can make you dizzy.  I value them.  But I still don't live and die with them.   They are lines I will cross.  I will cross breakout age.  I'll cross YPR if there is context to it, etc.  You can be aware of numbers without being a slave to them

 

And i am not saying my way is better than your way.  I am just saying its a different way.  No rights.  No wrongs.  I'd wager a guess that Peters has every number we have and more and understands the value of them but still there is much to the soup and context is part of it.

 

To bottom line the point would you feel more comfortable if you or someone else here was running this FO versus Peters?  If so, cool.  i am curious.

#1 I think that's a tone thing more than anything, and I own it, I think for the most part. A lot of times, especially in the past, when I would post my opinion it comes across in tone as my facts. A flaw in my writing that I've worked on tweaking to make my opinion more clear with caveats, sometimes, it feels a bit empty calorieish. Like Im negating my own take with caveats, but I do it anyway to underline the take so I feel like my position is better understood.

 

Commando and I are in a similar place w/our QB eval, but I think probably the main difference is that at this point, I can own, I don't know whose gonna hit, I just know which guys scare me more, and which guys I like more, but I've been in love with enough prospect profiles over the years to understand that I just can't tell how and why guys hit. Sure, I had strong feelings about Kyler, and Burrow, and Luck, but I also had equally strong feelings for Lawrence and Winston....so? I don't really trust myself, and that goes all the way back to Culpepper in '99, Ware in '90 etc when I was 15. Yada Yada.

 

#2 On the lines I don't cross, there's a reason, and I actually wrote out the analogy in a post earlier in the week, decided it was too inappropriate, and deleted it, but now, it just feels apropos again, so I'll try another approach instead. If you go out in the rain, you probably get wet, if you go out in the rain in a jacket and cold weather clothes, you probably don't, add an umbrella and your for sure dry 99% of the time, I just like to reduce risk, and if I find looking at data from playerprofiler or rotoviz, that the hit rate with a profile is well lower than comparable dudes, I'm gonna go w/the safer options, doesn't mean I'm right, N'Keal Harry was safer but still risky in '19, and he busted, after all. But profiles when you look at these models are suggestive, and I am inclined towards risk avoidance, there's no perfect way to do it, but you can avoid a lot of mistakes when you simply swerve away from profiles associated far more heavily with negative outcomes. I don't want to get wet, so I'm gonna put on a bunch of clothes and grab that umbrella going out.  That's what I tend to be doing. My old analogy was a sex ed one lol, but I thought better of it. 

 

3. Peters. I know zilch about what makes a great Edge, DT, LB, Interior OL, OT etc, I am at best, borderline hopeless at understanding the cap beyond dead cap hit stuff I can dig up on spotrac etc, I also don't know squat about mental make up traits that are desirable around football players. I imagine it wouldn't be that different from the guys I grew up playing with in sports that did it make it to the pro's in various sports, but that's a pretty small sample size and largely worthless. 

[Rufus T Firefly]

40 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

It's not that simple. I don't have some big board in my basement that I believe draft after draft is better than the pro's boards, I don't scout hundreds of linebackers, edge rushers, DT's, and Centers etc. I'm not remotely close to that.

 

But I'm also smart enough to know that drafting Christian Ponder and EJ Manuel from FSU last decade was rage enducingly stupid. That the Trubisky love was idiotic, that Zach Wilson and Pickett were monstrously stupid picks.

 

You do not have to be a genius to understand when GM's and scouts get lost in the trees and make stupid decisions. If you have distance from this, watch long enough, read long enough, analyze data enough you can sniff out stupid pretty easily.

 

There was no universe in which Henry Ruggs should've gone ahead of CeeDee Lamb EVER. Figuring out Jefferson back then was much harder, but Ruggs vs Lamb was easy.

 

As another example, with the RB age cliff, you know, its idiotic, period to take RB's with day 1 draft capital especially day 1 draft capital at the top of drafts, period, full stop.

 

Again, am I smarter? Yes and no. There are guys that are in the league with there jobs because of connections and/or nepotism, period. We know when the coaching recycler is a mistake. There isn't a redskins fan w/a functioning brain that thought the Chargers made the right decision in hiring Turner, every last one of us with sense new after 1994-2000 that Turner was an OC period, that he simply lacked the mental make up and ability for a HC job period. The Chargers brass did not know that, we did.

 

Are we smarter about everything? No. Not even about most things, but are all the guys in the league smarter than us ---- no, and if you think so, that's appeal to authority fallacy on crack, and speaking of crack, remember the coach shooting iphone video of himself sniffing coke before a team meeting and sending it to his shady as hell GF? I remember....so no, I don't automatically defer to the genius of these guys, Gettleman, Dorsey and the rest have proven 10 times over, it's just sometimes, who you know, not what you know...step out into the world for 2 seconds, and you realize that's true everywhere, too, not just the NFL. 

I don't know of anyone who claims to be smarter or know more than FO people. It's a completely bad faith way to belittle people's opinions. Because that's what they are, opinions. Opinions about football players. You should be able to express the opinion that a move could be a mistake without someone straw manning the claim that you think you know everything.

 

And, again, it's disingenuous  at that. Many of the same people who will tell you you are a fool to think you know if a draft pick is a mistake would have been perfectly fine doing the same to Rivera last year. Rivera who had access to way more information than any of us had and whole professional Front Office at his disposal. We could have called him anything we wanted, but we can't disagree with anything Peters does, because we don't have access t all the info he has? How does that work?

 

While we're trying to square some logic circles, how many of us were called idiots on this board for, say, thinking signing Albert Haynesworth was a mistake? How about Donovan McNabb? Jay Gruden? Dwayne Haskins? Carson Wentz? I was called every name in the book here for thinking I knew enough to call them mistakes. So were many other posters here. So, how does that work? The people who said I was stupid for thinking I knew those things were mistakes can stand up again and tell me how dumb I am for thinking something else is a mistake? Sure, I should definitely take that seriously. 

[Hooper]

https://www.si.com/nfl/2024/04/19/2024-nfl-draft-quarterbacks-case-study-top-prospects

 

The more I read articles like this, the more it becomes clear the consensus is 1) Daniels is the second best prospect among NFL folk and 2) the same people think Maye should probably sit a year. 

 

Not saying the NFL folk are right -- history proves otherwise -- or that I think we shouldn't take Maye.

 

But this thread is bizarro world.

Edited April 19 by Hooper

[mistertim]

4 minutes ago, @DCGoldPants said:

absolutely it could be. I doubt he's telling his agent to post emojis. If this is a problem still for him, I think Peters probably has given him a ring to gauge how much of a pain he's going to be.

 

So you think he can't control his agent or something? I seriously doubt Jayden is unaware of all this crap his agent seems to be pulling (and if he is, that's concerning in itself) It just seems fishy. If it were me and my agent was potentially ****ing up my draft stock by acting the fool, I'd sure as hell be on the phone with him and telling him to knock that **** off.

Edited April 19 by mistertim

[@DCGoldPants]

3 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

So you think he can't control his agent or something? I seriously doubt Jayden unaware of all this crap his agent seems to be pulling (and if he is, that's concerning in itself) It just seems fishy. If it were me and my agent was potentially ****ing up my draft stock by acting the fool, I'd sure as hell be on the phone with him and telling him to knock that **** off.

 

I think his agent didn't call him and say, "I'm going to post a hmmm emoji, cool?" to make sure it was cool with him.

 

I haven't seen him tweet in a few days on this topic. So, maybe Daniel did say that's enough. I don't know, and don't care. 

[Conn]

2 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

I actually really enjoy J.T.'s film breakdown and analyses, but he kinda sucks at predictions. Here were some gems of his past lists

 

2020:

1. Tua
2. Jake Fromm
3. Jordan Love
4. Nate Stanley
5. Anthony Gordon
6. Jalen Hurts
7. Justin Herbert

2021:

1. Justin Fields
2. Trevor Lawrence
3. Trey Lance
4. Zach Wilson
5. Kellen Mond
6. Mac Jones

 

2 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

That's the thing about these former player types. They focus on the now and are more worried about polished footwork and mechanics. They like low floor guys and don't take into account projection or how a guy will develop in the NFL.

 

I don't care who is better in 2024. I want the guy who can dominate from 2026-2036.

Yep, posted about these types of analysts the other day and I think it’s worth repeating:

 

On 4/8/2024 at 8:27 PM, Conn said:

By and large the type of former QB more likely to be on daily 9-5 type NFL media coverage, or have their own side hustle YouTube channel, are the smart but athletically limited clipboard holders that didn’t earn franchise contracts (or enough money to keep them from needing to engage in a full-time, or even part time, jobs creating content for mooks like us). Guys who might have a mind for grinding tape but didn’t necessarily have the tools/ability to succeed as starters.
 

J.T O’Sullivan, Dan Orlovsky, Kurt Benkert etc. 

 

I don’t think it’s surprising that this type of former player often prefers completely mechanically sound dudes rather than toolsy “rule breakers” at the position. Nobody should be surprised by that imo. It’s an inherent bias in a lot of these guys doing their own tape grinding and their own evaluations that nobody seems to acknowledge. They oftentimes prefer guys who win the way they were taught they had to win. They see impending disaster in the habits of guys like Maye, Herbert, Allen, even Mahomes because of course they do. And sometimes they’re right.

 

[mistertim]

10 minutes ago, Hooper said:

https://www.si.com/nfl/2024/04/19/2024-nfl-draft-quarterbacks-case-study-top-prospects

 

The more I read articles like this, the more it becomes clear the consensus is 1) Daniels is the second best prospect among NFL folk and 2) the same people think Maye should probably sit a year. 

 

Not saying the NFL folk are right -- history proves otherwise -- or that I think we shouldn't take Maye.

 

But this thread is bizarro world.

 

It's bizarre world because some people here don't agree with some anonymous scouts or other social media analysts? Why is that bizarre world? It happens often (as does those same scouts and social media analysts being hilariously wrong on QBs).

[Ghost of]

17 minutes ago, Hooper said:

https://www.si.com/nfl/2024/04/19/2024-nfl-draft-quarterbacks-case-study-top-prospects

 

The more I read articles like this, the more it becomes clear the consensus is 1) Daniels is the second best prospect among NFL folk and 2) the same people think Maye should probably sit a year. 

 

This thread is bizarro world.

 

I'm sorry, I want someone who scrambles to pass at least some of the time.  See this comment (which conforms to the beliefs on this thread, I'd say):

Second, there’s the fact that some of these hits come in scramble situations, where Daniels is almost always running. “When he scrambles, he runs, he doesn’t extend plays to throw,” says an AFC coordinator. “So when he pulls the ball down and moves, you know he’s going to go. He had 16 pass attempts off scrambles all year. You’d just like for him to keep his eyes downfield more. Now, he rushed for 1,200 yards, so it’s tough to argue the results. … But it’s the combination of he doesn’t have the frame and he’s getting f---ing rocked that worries you.” An NFC OC adds, “If you watch 20 scramble plays of Caleb Williams and 20 of Jayden Daniels, they’re polar opposites. Caleb’s going to throw it 15 out of the 20 times, and Jayden’s going to run it 15 out of the 20 times.”

[DogofWar1]

20 minutes ago, @DCGoldPants said:

absolutely it could be. I doubt he's telling his agent to post emojis. If this is a problem still for him, I think Peters probably has given him a ring to gauge how much of a pain he's going to be.

 

Yeah if this was Jayden and not his agent I think it'd be more under wraps.  A good agent is gonna try and mitigate their client's bad attitude and hide it as much as possible.

 

His mom also is a potential troublemaker.

 

It could be any combination of the 3, but I think agent is definitely one of them because he's out here liking tweets and posting emojis himself.

[FootballZombie]

I think a lot of these posts require a very specific response that is both concise and captures the public zeitgeist.

 

[ExoDus84]

2 hours ago, mistertim said:

2021:

1. Justin Fields
2. Trevor Lawrence
3. Trey Lance
4. Zach Wilson
5. Kellen Mond
6. Mac Jones

 

Good God. That draft class...

 

[mistertim]

Just now, DogofWar1 said:

 

Yeah if this was Jayden and not his agent I think it'd be more under wraps.  A good agent is gonna try and mitigate their client's bad attitude and hide it as much as possible.

 

His mom also is a potential troublemaker.

 

It could be any combination of the 3, but I think agent is definitely one of them because he's out here liking tweets and posting emojis himself.

 

And he also may be talking to media people and complaining about their camp being frustrated by the Commanders visit because they weren't already penciled in as #2 and expected it. At least someone in the Daniels camp seems to be. Whoever is leaking that...yeesh it's a pretty bad/entitled look. 

[Conn]

1 hour ago, The Consigliere said:

So nobody noticed that Jones QBR in his age 20 season was 75th in college, compared to Maye's 10th at the same age? That Jones QBR in his age 21 season was 34th, when Maye's supposedly awful season was 14th? It's so odd. Jones was a starter for 3 years, and 2 of his 3 years he was sub 50th in college football in QBR, just god awful, and the best he ever was was a full 20 spots lower than Maye's worst season. 

 

Kinda bizarre. I suppose they're just looking at the guys physically and stopping there. 

See you would have owned @Skinsinparadise ‘s son in that dinner table debate about DJones = Maye 

[sinews]

Yes, it's a big "if" but *If* it's true what's come out about the Daniels camp being frustrated with the Commanders' process, then the Top Golf experiment did what it was supposed to and brought to the surface something that otherwise may have stayed dormant. I think we were just expecting they would see unexpected positive traits, not negative. 

 

I say all this without knowing of course, and I'm certainly not blaming JD at this point. But it's the exact type of unscripted reaction that such an exercise was designed to elicit, whether it was during or after the fact or was an agent blunder doesn't matter. 

[Fan since a Fetus]

Florio can go lick smelly buttholes. No clean ones, just the furry nasty ones.

[Ghost of]

More from that article. Notice the "over the middle of the field" (thus not just metrics, or he's totally just reading other people's stuff) and the pick and stick throwing.  I keep hearing about processing but "moving too quickly" is not actually processing, a lot of younger QBs do that when they are trying to process and read but are hurrying due to anxiety about rush or timing:

 

. “I saw discipline with his feet, an ability to distribute the ball and make good decisions. I knew he was an athlete, but when I flipped it on, I saw a quarterback who happens to make plays with his legs.” If there is a criticism in that realm, it came from the aforementioned AFC coordinator, who adds, “My concern is he doesn’t ever throw over the middle of the field; they’re mostly pick-and-stick throws. So does he see it? Is he processing it?” That said, his downfield accuracy, and throws to the sideline, show his talent as a passer.