Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[wit33]

18 minutes ago, SpacePenguin said:

 

I honestly enjoyed watching Kirk Cousins lose games more than I enjoy Alex Smith winning them. I am not even joking. I hate the way he plays that much.
 

 

Cousins would agree with this point of view as well and a reason why (IMO) he will always struggle to consistently be a playoff type QB. It’s always been about his process and what’s good for him— The antithesis of Alex Smith. 

Dudes can be successful when wired this way, but you better be damn near if not elite. 

 

18 minutes ago, SpacePenguin said:

Anyways, whatever. I don't agree with the intangibles BS, but it doesn't even matter. Maybe he is the all knowing embodiment of risk management, but he's gonna be 37, has one robot leg and can barely run. I think his time is nearly over whether he retires or not, so the whole discussion is moot. If people honestly think he's up for another 16 healthy games next season, then I'm speechless. Need a QB that is better than league average to win anything worthwhile, and, given Alex's age, need one soon.

 

Am I crazy?

Work to get an above average to good young guy while providing stability at the spot is the direction I think the team is headed next year. 
 

Alex Smith and Kyle Allen are a package of Smith returns next season. Hope it’s at half the rate he’s paid now. 

[PartyPosse]

3 minutes ago, NoCalMike said:

Stafford coming here in 2021 would almost feel like Gannon to the Raiders when Gruden was building that Raiders squad into contenders.  At the time, not much was thought of the Gannon signing, he was and older vet, admirable but unspectacular career as mostly a back up, but with a good defense, stout running game, and good cast of role players on offense he had a resurgence and was a leader on that team for those handful of seasons.  Now personally, I think Stafford is better than Gannon ever was outside maybe 1-2 seasons when Gannon was playing way over his head, however if Stafford was to end up here I think it would be a big deal in the press as more and more analysts are looking at the film and suggesting QB play from all three is holding back things on offense.  

 

Other thing to keep in mind that while the defense still has holes and upgrades to make, the unit currently as is, is good enough to be a part of a championship team, it just needs to be paired with an offense that can score more points.  Imagine this defense if they didn't have to be on the field 60% of the time most games.  They are already carrying the load for this team and that is with a trio of linebackers who are average at best and constant turn around at the safety position due to injuries and draft picks not being ready to start (yet? hopefully),

 

I am not all in on it having to be Stafford, just using him as an example, but also making the point that you don't always need to sign a QB with "for the next 10 years" in mind.  If you have a team that is either ready to contend now or on the verge, a veteran franchise QB can make a huge difference and accelerate the situation.  

I think the difference is the cap hit and what you give up. Gannon was almost an afterthought. 

 

Secondly, regarding the defense, as fun as they've been to watch and as dominant as they've been looking especially these last 4 games, it's important to remember a little of that is fool's gold. We face Mullens, Ryan Findlay, Andy Dalton along with Ben who had the misfortunate of running an offense insistent on dropping the ball (it was painful to watch for their sake). We're also facing a Seattle team this week where Russell hasn't been looking great recently (although he seems to have figured things out against the Jets). I think the Wilson/Metcalf connection and how they fare this week will go a long way in telling where we truly stand defensively. If either he or Lockett go off for 200 yards on easy catch and runs then we'll know how much work we still have in front of us.

[Thinking Skins]

1 minute ago, PartyPosse said:

No it's not. You are correct. However being a consistent winner means he'll rarely be the weak link of a team. In other words way more often than not teams aren't saying "we would have won if it wasn't for Alex" or "we lost because of Alex." He's not glamorous but he'll give you at worst what you need. Were we able to say that with Haskins, Cousins or RG3?

The thing about an Alex type QB is that you need a Jamal Lewis type of a player or a AP type of player. We see that these victories started with Gibson having his best games. Even the Pitt and SF games took Thomas/Sims taking over and the defense taking over and performing way above a normal TE / #2WR and defense. 

 

The problem with QBs since Alex is we have to look at who we had -

Josh Johnson and Mark Sanches - 2 guys who had been out of football.

Colt McCoy  - a guy who is injury prone and has always gotten injured when given the chance to lead the team

Case Keenum - A guy who wore out his welcome in Denver and wasn't thought to be too good of a QB. Not bad, but a backup. 

Dwayne Haskins and Kyle Allen - Young QBs who are making young QB mistakes while they grow into the league. 

[Darrell Green Fan]

3 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

No it's not. You are correct. However being a consistent winner means he'll rarely be the weak link of a team. In other words way more often than not teams aren't saying "we would have won if it wasn't for Alex" or "we lost because of Alex." He's not glamorous but he'll give you at worst what you need. Were we able to say that with Haskins, Cousins or RG3?

 

I don't think anyone considers him the weak link as Haskins was. I'm simply explaining that using his win/loss record to evaluate his play on those teams while totally ignoring the teams he had surrounding him is kinda crazy.  While he was not the weak link his failure to advance good teams in the playoffs year after year meant teams felt they needed to upgrade the position.  Now we have that same QB who is now much older and has lost one of his biggest weapons while in SF/KC, his mobility. 

[Renegade7]

11 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

So Alex Smith was just ruled out for this Sunday. 

 

Which should rule him out for 2021.

[Darrell Green Fan]

So Alex is out?  Well that sucks. I liked their chances with him, with Dwayne our chances just dropped significantly.  

[Anselmheifer]

2 minutes ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

Guys if you think Stafford can be had with less than a 1st you are probably mistaken.  Teams like the Bears, Pats, SF and several others could be very very interested. There will be several teams bidding the price up.  

I agree 100 percent. Stafford is going to cost at least a 1st and I could see him costing us a 1st and a 3rd. And, unlike KDawg, I'd probably jump at the chance to give that up for him. He will cost the same-ish, cap wise, as Alex Smith next season. Add Stafford and Allen Robinson, and this team doesn't win less than 10-11 games for the next 3-4 years. Now, I don't think that we are going to wind up with him, so like SIP, to me the Stafford conversation feels like a waste of time. 

 

KDawg, I also agree with you about the value of a QB on a rookie contract. If they think they can win with an oofense designed around Lance and a single read RPO heavy offense, then fine. I would be more in favor of going up for Zach Wilson and I'd be willing to pay a pretty steep price to grab my quarterback of the future on a rookie contract, with this DL mostly on rookie contracts. We'd still have the salary cap space to upgrade the team elsewhere. 

Zach Wilson, Allen Robinson, Levonte David, Njoku and a DB could make this a  good team in 2021 and a scary team in 2022. 

[NoCalMike]

If you want the Alex Smith of the 49ers & Chiefs first you need to build.....the 49ers or Chiefs teams around him.  You also would need to find a younger, athletic and mobile Alex Smith since that QB is long gone.  I respect Alex Smith for everything he has done while with this franchise, but he isn't the answer moving forward beyond this season.  

[PartyPosse]

1 minute ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

 

I don't think anyone considers him the weak link as Haskins was. I'm simply explaining that using his win/loss record to evaluate his play on those teams while totally ignoring the teams he had surrounding him is kinda crazy.  While he was not the weak link his failure to advance good teams in the playoffs year after year meant teams felt they needed to upgrade the position.  Now we have that same QB who is now much older and has lost one of his biggest weapons while in SF/KC, his mobility. 

While I absolutely HATE using stats to prove any sort of point, especially with QBs, Alex in the playoffs actually elevated his play. He has a 14/2 TD/INT ratio in 7 games. His mobility loss is definitely an issue as is his penchant for panic when pressured. And again, as I've said, I'm not using the win/loss record to evaluate his play. I'm using his win/loss record to evaluate his understanding of his role and what is required of him game in and game out. 

8 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

The thing about an Alex type QB is that you need a Jamal Lewis type of a player or a AP type of player. We see that these victories started with Gibson having his best games. Even the Pitt and SF games took Thomas/Sims taking over and the defense taking over and performing way above a normal TE / #2WR and defense. 

I don't think you need that type of player, but no QB is gonna win a superbowl with Peyton Barber and McKissic as their cowbells. In terms of Thomas and Sims, i mean every team needs weapons to have any sort of consistency. That's like saying Mahomes would be no better than average if he didn't have one of the best wr in the game and one of the greatest TEs of all time. At the end of the day you still need someone to get them the ball. 

[moondog]

No to Stafford. KDawg is on the right track - this would be almost the worst thing we could do. Navigating the cap, especially when you have such a great young nucleus of players as we do that we'll want to keep most of, requires that you do not overextend with that "one piece  away" mindset. It's hilarious to  me because this is exactly what we've all hated about our offseasons for so long and now we are finally building the right way and people immediately think a guy that's never won a playoff game is going to put us over the edge and want to mortgage draft capital and cap (which equates to sacrificing an Allen or a Payne etc down the road). Stafford is a better QB than Smith, sure. But what we would give up to get him would cost us far more than what he would bring us, and again i'll emphasize he's never won a playoff game or hardly even gotten his team there. 

 

Sure, the Lions are a bottom dweller, however, franchise QB's are supposed to elevate their team out of that. 

 

Holding on to our draft picks to acquire the LB/WR/OL talent we need going forward and using our salary cap to keep the young talent locked up here going forward and add some more key contributors (McKissic/Thomas/Darby/Fuller types) is our meal ticket to then being able to pay Payne/Allen/McLaurin/Sweat etc down the line, all of which will be bills coming due in successive years, every year. The key is to find our guy in the draft before Smith hangs it up or if the Allen project fails you're ready to plug him in. But some bloated contract is how we reverse course and end up seeing guys walk down the road. And that doesn't even include trading away picks that  we need to keep. 

[Thinking Skins]

3 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

I don't think you need that type of player, but no QB is gonna win a superbowl with Peyton Barber and McKissic as their cowbells. In terms of Thomas and Sims, i mean every team needs weapons to have any sort of consistency. That's like saying Mahomes would be no better than average if he didn't have one of the best wr in the game and one of the greatest TEs of all time. At the end of the day you still need someone to get them the ball. 

Not saying that at all, but its like saying that Jimmy G wouldn't be putting up the record he has without the running game of Kyle S. and the Kittle TE. It takes pressure off Jimmy G, who is a mediocre QB and you don't want him making too many plays in crunch time. Look at Wentz right now without his weapons. Look at how good Tannehill looks with a Henry at RB vs how he did in Miami. Look at how good Wilson looked his first few years in the league with a dominant defense and a BEAST at RB and not having to win the game all by himself. Heck, look at what Blake Bortels did with Fournette vs when Fournette fell off. 

 

People like Galdi like to talk about how its a passing league, but playoff teams are constantly showing that the way to improve a QBs play, especially a young QB. We all know that TEs are a QBs best friend and with Thomas starting to perform well, hopefully this can be soemthing that Haskins depends on more than he did early in his time here. 

[Skinsinparadise]

I think the Alex Smith dynamic is a bit overthought.  And I'll start with the debate to me I am guessing is a waste of time for three reasons.

 

A.  I think there is a shot Alex retires

 

B.  Alex's durability and age isn't a side plot issue but the main plot issue IMO.   So even if the dude was the King Kong of QBs I doubt that his age and durability is ignored as part of the soup by the FO when factoring the future.

 

C.  I've heard enough from beat guys to believe that Rivera and company are unlikely cool with a let it ride scenario at QB for 2021.  Publicly you got to act that the staus quo is fine because you lose leverage if you tip your hand.  But heck even in the Dan Patrick recent interview Rivera didn't do a hot job selling they are fully into riding the status quo at QB in 2021. 

 

As for the Alex just wins stuff:

 

Do I think Alex just cares about winning and others QBs could give a rats behind about it and hence that's part of Alex's secret?  Not even 1%.  

 

As some NFL observer once said a good game manager wins when they have a strong roster around them.  Simple reason they eat clock and avoid mistakes.   And with Alex he's the ultimate game manager with strong leadership skills.   And even better -- years back he had some mobility, too.  

 

I think when some suggest he's absolutely the guy to beat the Aaron Rodgers, Mahomes, Brees (in Brees' prime) types -- IMO they are nuts.  We saw what happens when Matt Ryan and Drew Brees got hot in 2018.  We weren't even competitive in those games.    Can any QB help beat the great QBs from time to time?  Sure.  It happens.  But are you betting on it?  Nope.    Is he the guy that likely wins you a SB?  IMO nope.  Is he the perfect guy to help beat the mediocre-good teams (who will shoot themselves in the foot) in the NFL and get you in the playoffs at 10-6?  You bet.

 

To me the ultimate dichotomy that explains Alex in 2018 were the games againist NO and Tampa.  In NO, Brees was on fire.  We got behind.  Alex can't compete toe to toe with Brees when he's hot in a shoot out.  We got smoked.  That's the nightmare scenario to get through the playoffs with Alex.  Then the Tampa game Alex was off.  He played poorly.  Fitzgerald was on fire. The stats were crazy lopsided in favor of Tampa. Yet we won?  That game is the perfect illustration of the mystery of why Alex wins.  What happened was even though Fitzgerald moved the ball much more, he also made mistakes and our defense was on fire.  Alex couldn't move the ball much but didn't turn the ball over. 

 

That's sort of how Alex can roll where his critics sometimes don't give him credit for.  Heck to this day I don't like giving him credit for the Tampa game because he looked so "meh" and the defense carried the game.  But i get the Alex sell on a game like that.   At the same time IMO some who tout Alex get carried away with his ability on the opposite extreme.  That is, you might be facing a dude like Brees who is making big plays AND avoiding mistakes.  And when that happens it somewhat goes south for Alex.   He's not IMO on par with the better QBs in the game.  

 

Everything doesn't neatly fit this theory about Alex but IMO a lot of it does.

  

29 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

Alex Smith and Kyle Allen are a package of Smith returns next season. Hope it’s at half the rate he’s paid now. 

 

Why would Alex take a big pay cut?  It happens around the league but its rare. 

[Darrell Green Fan]

23 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

While I absolutely HATE using stats to prove any sort of point, especially with QBs, Alex in the playoffs actually elevated his play. He has a 14/2 TD/INT ratio in 7 games. His mobility loss is definitely an issue as is his penchant for panic when pressured. And again, as I've said, I'm not using the win/loss record to evaluate his play. I'm using his win/loss record to evaluate his understanding of his role and what is required of him game in and game out. 

 

 

But what you are missing is teams in the playoffs need a QB who can make plays, not simply play it safe and not make mistakes. There is a reason all of those good teams failed to go far, went in another direction and reached higher levels immediately. 

 

But all of this is off point.  The point I have been making remains using Alex Smith's won/loss figures on those teams without acknowledging that he had great teams around him is nuts. 

Edited December 18, 2020 by Darrell Green Fan

[PartyPosse]

2 minutes ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

 

But what you are missing is teams in the playoffs need a QB who can make plays, not simply play it safe and not make mistakes. There is a reason all of those good teams failed to go far, went in another direction and reached higher levels immediately. 

 

But all of this is off point.  The point I have been making remains using Alex Smith's won/loss figures on those teams without acknowledging that he had great teams around him is nuts. 

Did he have a great team around him in 2018 when they started 6-3?

[Darrell Green Fan]

4 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

Did he have a great team around him in 2018 when they started 6-3?

 

No but they were playing very well at the time.  He was not a factor in the wins, he just didn't turn them into losses. There's a difference. 

[veteranskinsfan]

I think Alex wins Comeback Player of the Year and then he can ride off into the Sunset feeling that he gave it his best shot  He can start his new life

and has homes in Hawaii and the Bay Area.  He has nothing left to prove and he has tons of money.  I am sure his wife will tell him its time to leave football.

If he cannot shake his competitive will, then he can see which teams want him next year but Skins would have to agree to any trade since we still have his contract.

I watched Herbert on the Chargers beat the Raiders last night and the Skins need to find another Herbert if that is possible in the draft.

[PartyPosse]

1 minute ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

 

No but they were playing very well at the time.  He was not a factor in the wins, he just didn't turn them into losses. There's a difference. 

So why did they lose 5 of the next 6 if they were playing very well and QB was not a factor in the wins? Surely Josh Johnson or  Sanchez would have been at least serviceable, no?

[Skinsinparadise]

6 minutes ago, veteranskinsfan said:

I think Alex wins Comeback Player of the Year and then he can ride off into the Sunset feeling that he gave it his best shot  He can start his new life

and has homes in Hawaii and the Bay Area.  He has nothing left to prove and he has tons of money.  I am sure his wife will tell him its time to leave football.

If he cannot shake his competitive will, then he can see which teams want him next year but Skins would have to agree to any trade since we still have his contract.

I watched Herbert on the Chargers beat the Raiders last night and the Skins need to find another Herbert if that is possible in the draft.

 

I think there is a good shot of this and the injury he has right now might add fuel to the fire.   And I wouldn't blame him. 

Edited December 18, 2020 by Skinsinparadise

[PartyPosse]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I think there is a good shot of this and the injury he has right now might add fuel to the fire.   And I wouldn't blame him. 

I honestly don't think he retires unless he knows the team has a viable contingency plan. He seems like that kind of teammate. 

[Thinking Skins]

7 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

So why did they lose 5 of the next 6 if they were playing very well and QB was not a factor in the wins? Surely Josh Johnson or  Sanchez would have been at least serviceable, no?

Johnson was almost serviceable. Sanchez was not. He was nowhere near serviceable. Colt was good but he got hurt. its a problem with this team because we were caught with our pants down. We had a young guy on the preseason roster and I wanted us to bring him in to play and at least develop, but instead we went the vet route. 

 

Plus we saw the defense collapse. We were saying how good the defense was at stopping people, creating turnovers, whatever. But in thse last 6 games or so all we had was AP and he was getting stopped because he was our only weapon. At least Smith kept them somewhat honest. Even Reed was gone. 

[Anselmheifer]

4 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

I honestly don't think he retires unless he knows the team has a viable contingency plan. He seems like that kind of teammate. 

Allen is a viable contingency plan. The stats say he isn't a step down from Alex. And he passed the eyeball test better than Haskins as well. 

[PartyPosse]

1 minute ago, Thinking Skins said:

Johnson was almost serviceable. Sanchez was not. He was nowhere near serviceable. Colt was good but he got hurt. its a problem with this team because we were caught with our pants down. We had a young guy on the preseason roster and I wanted us to bring him in to play and at least develop, but instead we went the vet route. 

 

Plus we saw the defense collapse. We were saying how good the defense was at stopping people, creating turnovers, whatever. But in thse last 6 games or so all we had was AP and he was getting stopped because he was our only weapon. At least Smith kept them somewhat honest. Even Reed was gone. 

My point exactly though. He always does enough to keep the offense churning in some form. I think his smarts and game awareness forced defenses to play less instinctual giving everyone that extra nanosecond. He rarely shows it but Smith is more multi-faceted than we give him credit for. HE can throw deep on a moment's notice when he wants. Why did the defense suddenly collapse to coincide with his injury? Why did the defense suddenly come together the moment he came BACK from injury? 

1 minute ago, Anselmheifer said:

Allen is a viable contingency plan. The stats say he isn't a step down from Alex. And he passed the eyeball test better than Haskins as well. 

Kyle Allen lost 3 of the 4 games he was involved with including a brutal pick 6 against the Giants which may be the difference between a divisional title or not. Kyle played much better than Haskins but I still don't know how anyone possibly looks at Kyle Allen with this defense and says, "that's the guy they can go all the way with."

[jnhutchi3]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

Ive seen it. First hand. In locker rooms. It exists. And you can look at me like I’m crazy, but I’m telling you. The vibe when a team trusts it’s QB is very different than when it doesn’t. 
 

You can spin the stats any way you want. But 66% vs. 18% in win pct with Smith as starter versus not. We weren’t beating those bad teams very often without him at the helm.

 

 

Some of these guys will never understand what a special QB that Smith is.  Thank God they don't work in the Washington personnel department.

[Skinsinparadise]

12 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

I honestly don't think he retires unless he knows the team has a viable contingency plan. He seems like that kind of teammate. 

 

He has said he wants to talk to his family about it in the off season.  So as much as he loves his teammates, it won't be ahead of his wife and kids, etc.  

 

But if I ran with Alex himself driving the process for Ron then maybe he's already tipped off Ron that he might not be coming back because the vibe i get from beat writers covering the team -- isn't that they are comfortable letting it ride with what they got currently at QB as for 2021.

Edited December 18, 2020 by Skinsinparadise

[PartyPosse]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

So as much as he loves his teammates, it won't be ahead of his wife and kids, etc.  

I dunno. They seem super supportive but after what he went through and almost dying, I wonder where his priorities lie if he's willing to go back out there and put himself in the same situation. Even when on IR he was still in the box with Dan and down on the field. He seems like football is and always will be his first love but that's just my humble opinion based on what I see.