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(2020) We clinched the NFC East didn't we?


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Dallas could beat the Ravens on Monday next week if they don't get Lamar back. They will beat the Bengals as well. They are likely going to lose to the 9ers and would just need one of the Eagles and Giants to get to the playoffs. A good scenario for us:

 

Ravens - win

Bengals - win

49ers - loss

Giants - win

Eagles - loss

 

Realistically, the Giants have too tough a schedule. They are underdogs in their next 4 with Dallas being their final remaining win

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If Mullins starts for the 49ers I think there is a good chance the defense has a great game.  If Garapalo starts I am not so confident, but it doesn't have to do with Jimmy G being any kind of great QB it is more the style of the offense the 49ers run when he is in there.  Jimmy G tends to run the 3 step drop, quick passes on slants WCO.  It kills the pass rush, but also attacks the defense where the WFT's is the weakest...the linebackers.  

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Surprise. Media actually picked us to win the division, and says we are currently the best team in the division ; obviously irrespective of won-loss records.

And it's based mostly on computer analytics. Simulations have us winning it 31.5%.

That's a lot better than all 3 other teams.

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/2020-nfl-playoff-picture-who-will-rise-out-of-the-nfc-east

 

 

 

 
Rank
1
Washington Football Team
Washington Football Team
4-7-0

They win the division in: 31.5% of simulations.

 

To make the playoffs, they must: stay balanced and efficient on early downs and continue to lean on their defensive front.

 

A strong indicator for success is the combination of an excellent defensive front (in terms of generating effective pressure on passing downs) and the ability to generate efficient yardage output on early downs (first and second). Washington's front ranks fourth-best in terms of win-share as a unit in my model, and Pro Football Focus agrees with that rosy assessment, giving Washington's pass rush the fifth-best grade in the NFL. Next Gen Stats shows that Washington's front generates pressure on 28.6 percent of dropbacks, tied for the sixth-best rate in the NFL, and the rest of the defense helps back that up by allowing a completion percentage on passes of 10-plus air yards of just 43.1 percent, sixth-lowest, per NGS.

 

Over their past four games (since their Week 8 bye), they've averaged 6.09 yards per play on early downs, which is a dramatic increase from their mark of 4.62 in Weeks 1-7. NGS shows that Antonio Gibson leads the NFL with eight rushing touchdowns between the tackles. When facing six or fewer defenders in the box, Gibson is averaging 5.5 yards per rush; when there are seven or more defenders in the box, that average drops to 3.7 (and 3.9 on non-red-zone attempts), illustrating the importance of maintaining balance between the run and pass and staying efficient on early downs. Receiver Terry McLaurin has 10 or more receptions on four different routes (slant, screen, hitch and crossing). Since quarterback Alex Smith is only attempting passes of 10-plus yards 18.7 percent of the time (the lowest rate in the NFL, per NGS), space has to be created through balanced diversity of passing routes and the threat of the run.

 

Washington is the best team in the division as of Week 13 -- their remaining schedule (at Pittsburgh, at San Francisco, vs. Seattle, vs. Carolina and at Philadelphia) is the biggest threat to their postseason potential. My model only has Washington favored in one remaining contest (and by a narrow margin, in Week 17 against the Eagles). But they are within probable striking distance (meaning no less than a 45 percent chance to win) in their games against the Niners and Panthers, which drives Washington’s highest projected win total in the NFC East.  

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According to this, yes we are. 

Link for the full article: https://www.nfl.com/news/2020-nfl-playoff-picture-who-will-rise-out-of-the-nfc-east

 

Rank
1
 

Washington Football Team

Washington Football Team
4-7-0

They win the division in: 31.5% of simulations.

 

To make the playoffs, they must: stay balanced and efficient on early downs and continue to lean on their defensive front.

 

A strong indicator for success is the combination of an excellent defensive front (in terms of generating effective pressure on passing downs) and the ability to generate efficient yardage output on early downs (first and second). Washington's front ranks fourth-best in terms of win-share as a unit in my model, and Pro Football Focus agrees with that rosy assessment, giving Washington's pass rush the fifth-best grade in the NFL. Next Gen Stats shows that Washington's front generates pressure on 28.6 percent of dropbacks, tied for the sixth-best rate in the NFL, and the rest of the defense helps back that up by allowing a completion percentage on passes of 10-plus air yards of just 43.1 percent, sixth-lowest, per NGS.

 

Over their past four games (since their Week 8 bye), they've averaged 6.09 yards per play on early downs, which is a dramatic increase from their mark of 4.62 in Weeks 1-7. NGS shows that Antonio Gibson leads the NFL with eight rushing touchdowns between the tackles. When facing six or fewer defenders in the box, Gibson is averaging 5.5 yards per rush; when there are seven or more defenders in the box, that average drops to 3.7 (and 3.9 on non-red-zone attempts), illustrating the importance of maintaining balance between the run and pass and staying efficient on early downs. Receiver Terry McLaurin has 10 or more receptions on four different routes (slant, screen, hitch and crossing). Since quarterback Alex Smith is only attempting passes of 10-plus yards 18.7 percent of the time (the lowest rate in the NFL, per NGS), space has to be created through balanced diversity of passing routes and the threat of the run.

 

Washington is the best team in the division as of Week 13 -- their remaining schedule (at Pittsburgh, at San Francisco, vs. Seattle, vs. Carolina and at Philadelphia) is the biggest threat to their postseason potential. My model only has Washington favored in one remaining contest (and by a narrow margin, in Week 17 against the Eagles). But they are within probable striking distance (meaning no less than a 45 percent chance to win) in their games against the Niners and Panthers, which drives Washington’s highest projected win total in the NFC East.  

 
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Hey, did you guys see this? Look who is picked to win the division...

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/2020-nfl-playoff-picture-who-will-rise-out-of-the-nfc-east

 

 

Rank 1
Washington Football Team
4-7-0

They win the division in: 31.5% of simulations.

 

To make the playoffs, they must: stay balanced and efficient on early downs and continue to lean on their defensive front.

 

A strong indicator for success is the combination of an excellent defensive front (in terms of generating effective pressure on passing downs) and the ability to generate efficient yardage output on early downs (first and second). Washington's front ranks fourth-best in terms of win-share as a unit in my model, and Pro Football Focus agrees with that rosy assessment, giving Washington's pass rush the fifth-best grade in the NFL. Next Gen Stats shows that Washington's front generates pressure on 28.6 percent of dropbacks, tied for the sixth-best rate in the NFL, and the rest of the defense helps back that up by allowing a completion percentage on passes of 10-plus air yards of just 43.1 percent, sixth-lowest, per NGS.

 

Over their past four games (since their Week 8 bye), they've averaged 6.09 yards per play on early downs, which is a dramatic increase from their mark of 4.62 in Weeks 1-7. NGS shows that Antonio Gibson leads the NFL with eight rushing touchdowns between the tackles. When facing six or fewer defenders in the box, Gibson is averaging 5.5 yards per rush; when there are seven or more defenders in the box, that average drops to 3.7 (and 3.9 on non-red-zone attempts), illustrating the importance of maintaining balance between the run and pass and staying efficient on early downs. Receiver Terry McLaurin has 10 or more receptions on four different routes (slant, screen, hitch and crossing). Since quarterback Alex Smith is only attempting passes of 10-plus yards 18.7 percent of the time (the lowest rate in the NFL, per NGS), space has to be created through balanced diversity of passing routes and the threat of the run.

 

Washington is the best team in the division as of Week 13 -- their remaining schedule (at Pittsburgh, at San Francisco, vs. Seattle, vs. Carolina and at Philadelphia) is the biggest threat to their postseason potential. My model only has Washington favored in one remaining contest (and by a narrow margin, in Week 17 against the Eagles). But they are within probable striking distance (meaning no less than a 45 percent chance to win) in their games against the Niners and Panthers, which drives Washington’s highest projected win total in the NFC East.  

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The NFC East will come down to how dominant the WFT defensive line can be. Simply put, look at their opponents offensive lines and determine how well they will match up against the defensive line of the WFT. How good can the WFT be? If they take it to the next level then they are going to win the NFC East and be a tough out in the playoffs. The history of RR teams is that they get better as the season goes, this team has that look.

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I'm posting this for the people who don't want to win the division with a poor record.

There has been 2 teams that won their division with a losing record. Both of them were recent, like in the last decade or so.

And they both won a playoff game that post-season.

So, regardless of record, the post-season is a brand new season, even if you're playing teams with better records.

Most importantly, teams CAN improve mid-season.

Look at the Giants, they started out losing their first several games and solidy in the bottom cellar of the division. Everyone therefore assumed they would stay in last place all season, and get a high draft pick next year.

But no, they made improvements, and are now in first place, and have some people picking them to win the division.

So, just like the post-season is like a separate season - so is the 2nd half of the season like a separate season from the 1st.

It happens ALL the time. Teams start out poorly and slow in the first half, and then they turn it on in the 2nd half of the season

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44 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

The NFC East will come down to how dominant the WFT defensive line can be. Simply put, look at their opponents offensive lines and determine how well they will match up against the defensive line of the WFT. How good can the WFT be? If they take it to the next level then they are going to win the NFC East and be a tough out in the playoffs. The history of RR teams is that they get better as the season goes, this team has that look.

 

This guy is so positive. I'm having what he's having!

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50 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

The history of RR teams is that they get better as the season goes, this team has that look.

 

Certainly does look that way, and another bunch of reasons to give RR some slack for the slow start are :

 

* Cancer condition and treatment, and how we improved around the time his treatment ended

* This is his very first season with the team

* All the craziness about this year, making unusual adjustments, like with COVID

* The QB issue, which may not be his fault necessarily. Rumor has it, he reluctantly started DH from the beginning, just to please Snyder, even though RR really didn't believe in him. So it almost was like wasting about 1/3 of a season, just to get to the QB that he himself really wanted

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28 minutes ago, Malapropismic Depository said:

* The QB issue, which may not be his fault necessarily. Rumor has it, he reluctantly started DH from the beginning, just to please Snyder, even though RR really didn't believe in him. So it almost was like wasting about 1/3 of a season, just to get to the QB that he himself really wanted

 

So you're saying RR wanted Alex to be the QB this entire time? :P

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41 minutes ago, Xplosive said:

 

So you're saying RR wanted Alex to be the QB this entire time? :P

 

According to anonymous sources, allegedly there are photographs of Rivera and Smith suspiciously meeting in secret, multiple times immediately following Rivera's hiring, often at low-key, inconspicuous shops, like Cuban Sandwich Delis, etc.

You may have heard about the name of the conspiracy, often referred to as the Cuban Sandwich Crisis

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Funny thing is, we can be right back in first place Sunday afternoon even before we play Monday. 
 

if the Seahawks beat the giants (which i think they will), then the giants fall to 4-8, while we’re still 4-7. 
 

buuuuuuut then we’ll give 1st place right back to the giants when we lose Monday. 

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17 minutes ago, Cooleyfan1993 said:

Funny thing is, we can be right back in first place Sunday afternoon even before we play Monday. 
 

if the Seahawks beat the giants (which i think they will), then the giants fall to 4-8, while we’re still 4-7. 
 

buuuuuuut then we’ll give 1st place right back to the giants when we lose Monday. 

My brain says this is completely correct. 

 

Buuuuut...then my heart says its a short week for Pittsburgh since they play today, and we are exactly the kinda "trap game" that a team like Pittsburgh would overlook.  I lived in the Pittsburgh for a while; one thing about that team is it frequently plays to the level of their competition.  Also, I feel like Ron will have the youngsters ginned up for this game as a "test" to see how far they've come.  Just have a hopeful feeling that we surprise everyone Monday.

 

And then my brain notes that the game is now, in fact, on a Monday.  When was the last time we played well on a Monday?

 

...god I hate my brain.

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12 hours ago, Malapropismic Depository said:

I'm posting this for the people who don't want to win the division with a poor record.

There has been 2 teams that won their division with a losing record. Both of them were recent, like in the last decade or so.

And they both won a playoff game that post-season.

So, regardless of record, the post-season is a brand new season, even if you're playing teams with better records.

Most importantly, teams CAN improve mid-season.

Look at the Giants, they started out losing their first several games and solidy in the bottom cellar of the division. Everyone therefore assumed they would stay in last place all season, and get a high draft pick next year.

But no, they made improvements, and are now in first place, and have some people picking them to win the division.

So, just like the post-season is like a separate season - so is the 2nd half of the season like a separate season from the 1st.

It happens ALL the time. Teams start out poorly and slow in the first half, and then they turn it on in the 2nd half of the season

To your point, Atlanta fired their coach and Raheem Morris, the interim coach, is 4-2 and has that team kicking ass and taking names. Atlanta's defense, once a joke, has completely turned things around. 

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