2021 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Skinsinparadise]

30 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

Devonta Smith jumps Chase as his #1 WR at #5 overall.

 

I've been raving about Smith since early last year, the guy has glue for hands, knows how to get open, a gamer who has been Alabama's clutch big game receiver including last year when they had Jeudy and Ruggs.

 

Tough for me to get over though his Paul Richardson thin as a rail body.   I wonder if he holds up in the NFL.  But if he could, all he does is make plays.  Supposedly he is a 4.5 type runner.  So a 4.5 guy at 175 pounds doesn't scream stardom.  Yet, he is such a reliable receiver and so clutch that he might overcome all of that.  Will see. 

[Stefanskins]

15 hours ago, RichmondRedskin88 said:

Everyone knows you don’t draft QBs from Bama.  Pretty much every one of them went about undefeated the last decade or more but that’s because they had superior talent around them and defenses that absolutely suffocated teams. 

yeah, not since the Snake...

[OVCChairman]

12 hours ago, KDawg said:

You guys have to get out of this mindset. Evaluate the player, not their record. Evaluate their skill, not their pass catchers. Evaluate their composure under pressure, not their offensive line.

 

Evaluating QBs is tricky. Good teams, bad teams, high talent, low talent... it’s a tricky subject. 
 

But dismissing guys because of their school is a big mistake.

 

 

I'm not dismissing anything because of school.  I'm just saying it has to be considered.  When the talent surrounding a QB is far and away ahead of the competition, then their statistics and accomplishments will ultimately be higher.  The windows to throw into will be bigger.  Ben Roethlisberger had almost the same stats as Ken Dorsey coming out of college.  One of them played at Miami of Ohio, the other on one of the best college football teams in history.... their NFL careers took very different paths.  I've said multiple times in this thread that this is not a rule, but a consideration.  Lawrence is not a bad QB because he plays at Clemson.  His abilities appear to be legitimate beyond the talent around him.  Fields LOOKS like he falls into that same category.  Haskins in college put up similar numbers to Fields, but are completely different QBs.  

 

Rodgers top WR in college was Geoff McArthur.  Wilson's no. 1 was Nick Toon.   Jamarcus Russell had Dwayne Bowe, Early Doucet, Craig Davis, Brandon Lafell, and Jacob Hester... 2 1st rounders and 3 3rd rounders.  

 

Sorry to throw all these out, it's fresh in my brain as I'm researching a blog on this very discussion. 

[Warhead36]

Some guys just look the part. Burrow last year for example. Yes he he had talent around him but it was clear as day the kid was gonna be a stud in the NFL.

 

I think Lawrence fits that bill. Not sure yet about Fields(haven't really watched him much).

[Thinking Skins]

Anyone have any info on Davis Mills? Is he a 2021 or 2022 QB? I saw him highly ranked as a HS guy going into college (5 stars), and saw some things calling him a sleeper in the upcoming draft but is there any buzz on him?

[Going Commando]

Journey Brown had to retire from football because of a heart condition. That is terrible news, that kid can absolutely fly.  He was one of the most spectacular talents in the class and had potential NFL stardom in his future.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

PFF

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-trevor-lawrence-justin-fields-worth-price-to-trade-up-2021-nfl-draft

While Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields may be the best quarterback duo we’ve ever seen, the presence of Zach Wilson and North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance (and a handful of other solid prospects) should strongly disincentivize a trade up, even with the potential to land an MVP-caliber quarterback for years to come. Going one step further, the new CBA rules regarding fifth-year options should cause teams to slightly devalue first-round picks compared to how they valued them under the old CBA. 

Finally, if the youth movement at quarterback continues over the next few years, the trade market may need to undergo a correction to reestablish a price that’s worth the gamble. If the market doesn’t correct itself, teams should commit to the tank more wholeheartedly, as we’ve seen from the Jets and Jaguars this season, because the juice is not always worth the squeeze. 

[Going Commando]

Wilson has a big time arm and he's got very palpable pocket poise.  But I'd be confident too if I was that much better than my level of competition.  A lot of the stuff in that BYU offense is brilliant gimmickry that would not work every week in the SEC, much less the NFL.  Those gorgeous jump ball throws way down the sideline where the big BYU receivers just out muscle the coverage for the ball are pretty dicey.  NFL corners are unbelievably good, not to mention the safeties get involved pretty quickly after you burn them, and having that regularly available as a pressure release second and third read is a big part of Wilson's game.  You actually have to set those throws up in the NFL.

 

He reminds me of peak Phil Rivers in style.  Throws off balance quite a bit, but the ball always seems to find its way to where its supposed to go.  He's got far better wheels than Rivers, and a stronger arm.  But the advanced placement and large repertoire of throws and the ability to make things happen even when the process isn't pretty is similar.  He is a smart player who is very comfortable thinking on his feet and sorting through all of the mess to make good decisions and he has the arm talent to keep the whole field open no matter what happens after the snap.

 

I don't really have too much to complain about with him.  He's very good and he's going to be an early first round pick if he declares for the draft his year.  Looks like a top five pick to me, maybe the second QB in the class behind Lawrence, but I could see some teams liking him the best.  People will probably nitpick some of the mechanics on his throw and they will be missing the forest through the trees.  My concerns in the WFT drafting him would be with the organization rather than him.

[philibusters]

Geez, I started this year only really liking Trevor Lawrence.  You guys have convinced me that Justin Fields is worth a high first round pick and now I am coming to that position on Wilson.  Of the top 4 guys, the only QB that I definitely think would be a bad pick for WFT is Trey Lance due to him being so developmental.

[Wyndorf25]

Last 5 Picks:
Round 1 Pick 1 (LAC): Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
Round 1 Pick 2 (DET): Dylan Moses, ILB/OLB, Alabama
Round 1 Pick 3 (DAL): Patrick Surtain, CB, Alabama
Round 1 Pick 4 (NYG): Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas
Round 1 Pick 5 (WASH): Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

Next 5 Picks:
Round 1 Pick 7: MIA
Round 1 Pick 8: CINN
Round 1 Pick 9: CAR
Round 1 Pick 10: ATL
Round 1 Pick 11: JAX

View Draft Summary
View Remaining Players

Your Picks:
Round 1 Pick 5: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson (A+)

 

[philibusters]

Trevor Lawrence is not going number 5.   If a team drafting 1 doesn't want a QB, they will simply trade down for a nice haul.

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, philibusters said:

Geez, I started this year only really liking Trevor Lawrence.  You guys have convinced me that Justin Fields is worth a high first round pick and now I am coming to that position on Wilson.  Of the top 4 guys, the only QB that I definitely think would be a bad pick for WFT is Trey Lance due to him being so developmental.

 

We need a new offensive coaching staff at minimum before I'd feel confident in any QB pick.

[Wyndorf25]

4 minutes ago, philibusters said:

Trevor Lawrence is not going number 5.   If a team drafting 1 doesn't want a QB, they will simply trade down for a nice haul.

Believe me, I know! I just thought it was funny while I was doing a mock that it played out like that. lol

[KDawg]

1 hour ago, philibusters said:

Geez, I started this year only really liking Trevor Lawrence.  You guys have convinced me that Justin Fields is worth a high first round pick and now I am coming to that position on Wilson.  Of the top 4 guys, the only QB that I definitely think would be a bad pick for WFT is Trey Lance due to him being so developmental.

I’m close to the same place you are. Not sure on Wilson being a high first yet, but I’m coming around on that. I love how he can change arm angle on his throws to fit the ball into tight windows. I think he has good leadership ability.

 

He’s my current QB3ish. I’m not sure where I’d value him overall yet. I think that will shake itself off during the offseason when I dive deep into this class and assign “grades” to them and weight them for need/position as well. 

[Skinsinparadise]

I get Lombardi's point below.  I loved Chase but i was OK with taking Tua if they had faith in his health.  Tua is so injury prone that he makes me pause.  I never dug into Herbert to form a serious opinion on him. 

 

 

[mistertim]

 

 

JT finds some really awesome stuff but also rips him for some bad stuff. Overall, Wilson looks pretty good to me.

 

Pros: Live arm (not elite but he can definitely spin it), super smooth mechanics and footwork, throws with anticipation, very good accuracy.

Cons: Can get too "cute" sometimes, tries to force things at times when they aren't there, missed some defensive alignments, a couple pure head scratchers.

[Going Commando]

13 minutes ago, mistertim said:

JT finds some really awesome stuff but also rips him for some bad stuff. Overall, Wilson looks pretty good to me.

 

Pros: Live arm (not elite but he can definitely spin it), super smooth mechanics and footwork, throws with anticipation, very good accuracy.

Cons: Can get too "cute" sometimes, tries to force things at times when they aren't there, missed some defensive alignments, a couple pure head scratchers.

 

His arm looks pretty close to elite to me.  The release is very fast and it's an effortless, arm-heavy action that doesn't take a lot of set up in his lower half.  He throws it like a baseball player and the velocity looks good.  The slants are lasers, he splits deep zone seams with no trouble, and he can sit and wait on throws outside of the numbers then just whips that arm and sticks the throw.   I'd put his arm in Jared Goff's world, and there are some similarities in build and biomechanical style between them.

 

The thing you have to appreciate about Wilson in order to understand his style is that he's a true back yard football quarterback.  He is super aggressive, he sees the game a different way than a normal player, and he's going to try things that will make you groan and/or shock you.  Phil Rivers and Aaron Rodgers and DeShaun Watson are the biggest exemplars of good NFL QBs who play the game this way, and at his best, Wilson is somewhere among them in mentality and traits.  So many plays where they just look broken from the snap and then they get off schedule and then try some crazy ass throw where your instinctive reaction is "Nooooo!" when the ball comes out, but then it floats right into hands of some receiver 20 yards down the field and its a big play, and then you're amazed and just wondering how in the Hell they saw that receiver and how in the Hell did that ball get there.  And despite the way they play the game, they are still very efficient somehow.  Well Rivers was efficient until he got old and his started falling apart in his late 30s.  I think Wilson's lack of turnovers is a testament to him making good decisions and playing with efficiency, so we need to maintain perspective with him.  He successfully walks the line of having an aggressive playmaking mentality while still keeping the offense moving on schedule and taking what the defense gives him.

[Warhead36]

Hindsight is always 20/20. NOBODY was suggesting taking Herbert at 2. Tua maybe, but not Herbert.

[SemperFi Skins]

I would've taken Herbert #1 overall in 19... he 'hurt' his stock going back to school.

[Going Commando]

The other thing I like about Wilson is he's a team player.  Very in control of the game and the offense, and uses his anticipation skill to play winning situational football.  Looking at the Boise State game, late in the first quarter, he gets stuck in a third and long situation deep in their own territory.  The defense guessed right on the first two downs.  BYU hurries up to the line and catches Boise State in an attempt to blitz that breaks down.  But the playcall still isn't great and the coverage is still pretty good, so Wilson has to sit on his throw a bit to let the slot receiver uncover and split the deep zones.  It's a classic hospital throw situation because the safeties know there is only one place the ball can go to get the first down and they're in position to make the play.  It's the kind of situation where if you're an instinctive, head-hunting safety your eyes get big and you get excited for the opportunity unfolding in front of you.  But Wilson plays with anticipation and throws it low to bring his receiver to the ground and just lasers a dime right into his belly so he can turtle up and it sends that safety flying over the receiver.

 

That seems like a mundane play, but it's telling.  If I'm that receiver, I go back to the huddle thankful for my QB and that is the kind of quarterback I'd want to play with.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

 

[The Consigliere]

On 11/10/2020 at 6:29 PM, Burgundy Yoda said:

I'm not saying Fields isn't good, hes a good player for sure but the question is how good? I would absolutely take him before Lance, no questions asked but im not sure I would take him top 5. His completion percentage is off the charts but once again these Ohio State WRs are running wide open all game and he seemingly has all day to throw. Its extremely hard to evaluate Ohio State QBs because not only are their teams superior in talent, they also run an extremely friendly QB system. 

 

I was impressed with Wilson's ball placement with tight coverage on his receivers. It looks like he's challenged more in games, throwing against tighter coverage, under more pressure, etc. Id still like to watch more of both though and see Fields against tougher competition. 

 

Just use this tool.

Fields and Lawrence ran neck and neck for the #1 recruit in their class ranking in '17. At the end of the race, Lawrence won two of the three 1st place's, Fields won 1 of them. When I say they were ranked #1 and #2 at every service, I'm saying as a player in the class ranking, not QB ranking. They had QB 1 and 2 in the bag AND they were ranked 1 and 2 overall regardless of position (for instance Fields was ranked WAY WAY WAY higher than anybody, Chase Young in his class didn't come close to Fields ranking in his). Fields then went to Georgia where Georgia had the genius to play Fromm ahead of him, and have a baseball teammate refer to him w/a racial epithet at a football game. So he transferred to Ohio State. 

 

He's not an Ohio State system guy, the second he transferred to Ohio State, he was the highest ranked football player on the team by high school evaluators, period (likely in years, as generally Fields and Lawrence received grades suggesting they were more once a decade talents than just best in class talents). 

 

If you don't like him, that's fine, but lets not come in thinking Ohio State's making him look good. He's making Ohio state look good. For comparison's sake, Haskins came in w/class rankings sitting between 90 and 100+, not close to Fields. Fields as a high school prospect, was a megastar, and thus far, he's delivered on all the accolades. Doesn't mean he'll hit, great highschool/college players fail plenty of times, but it's more data for an evaluation, especially if you're inclined to think Ohio State's what is making him. That's anything but the case. He may fail, but it won't be because the talent around him made him look good, it will be because something in his mental make up/mechanics/vision or all three hurts him, Ohio State has nothing to do with it. 

[The Consigliere]

On 11/9/2020 at 9:24 PM, method man said:

This fanbase isn’t patient enough to wait for a QB to develop on the bench. We deserve someone who can step in and play right away

Why? 

 

I don't get that. Maybe it's a different response to misery, but to me, after nearly 30 years of this, I just want it done right, I don't need fast, I need right. better to do it right, and wait an extra year, then do it wrong, and have to go through another rebuild on top of this one. I don't get the urgency. This team isn't winning anything next year, who cares if we're 8-8 instead of 5-11 next year, either way we're irrelevant. Let's just get the build done well so it can actually last. Nothing would be worse than after 1993-2020, to make short cuts so we can have more 1999's, 2005's, 2007's, 2012's and 2015's sandwiched around 3-5 miserable seasons every time. Aren't we sick of this? The way to fix it is to build it smartly, w/o short cuts. the only short cut that ever works anyway is a franchise QB. No other short cut ever pays off long term. Just build this thing smartly, I'm willing to wait another 2-3 years, not just one, if it means we build a team like Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Green Bay and New England have had the past 15 years, or a team like Seattle that has been strong for 10. What I don't want is some quick fix thing because we're tired of losing, that gets you nowhere (see the past 25+ years) build smart decision upon smart decision so we can actually enjoy some sustained success w/a real chance at winning. 

[The Consigliere]

On 11/10/2020 at 5:53 AM, Rdskns2000 said:

If I was Trevor; do I really want to play for the Jets. It’s only been 3-4 years since they drafted Sam Darnold and things didn’t work out with him. Sam may still have a career but it won’t in NY.

 

I may refuse to play for the Jets or come back and come out in 22. Trevor would probably still be the #1 pick in 22.

 

It's a funny situation, but yeah, I see nothing to gain by coming out this year. The worst teams are run by incompetent front offices (NYG and NYJ have terrible coaches and NYG has a terrible GM, NYJ fired their bad GM, but I'm not sold this one is any better), and those situations are pretty bad. Until NYG fires the GM, they're screwed, though at least they have some weapons, the Jets have nothing, no coach, no talent beyond maybe Mims. 

 

Jacksonville's intriguing because they have Chark, Shenault, Josh Oliver's a good TE whose been out two years w/injuries, they stole a competent RB, they've got loads of cap space, Jacksonville is at least intriguing, but teams like the Jets and Giants are obvious stay aways. We're a mixed bag, bad OL, great young WR, and RB, no TE, solid veteran coach, F.O. and organization are putrid to most, but the actual player personnel side is fine. It's interesting. I'd take a long look at who is most likely to stink in '21, and see if it's anymore interesting. If the Jets have the first pick, I'd bail or pull an Eli. You also have to add Covid, covid could very well damage another offseason and if it does, its better just to come out in '22 when you'll have a full offseason w/rookie camp and training camp. You won all the things possible to favor your development: Horrible organization/coach/paucity of talent+covid offseason? Hell no.