2021 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Skinsinparadise]

8 minutes ago, ColonialWBSkinsFan said:

If we end up with #3, and Jacksonville is at #2, what would it realistically take to convince them to swap picks with us?   And would it be worth it for a chance for Fields?   (I say, absolutely YES, but would the Jags hold us hostage and hold out for multiple future-year #1's to make that deal a la the RG3 trade?)

 

 

If past is prologue, Fields is too big of a prospect for the Jags to trade away the pick.  Typically the only teams who do are the ones who already have a franchise QB. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

9 minutes ago, ColonialWBSkinsFan said:

If we end up with #3, and Jacksonville is at #2, what would it realistically take to convince them to swap picks with us?   And would it be worth it for a chance for Fields?   (I say, absolutely YES, but would the Jags hold us hostage and hold out for multiple future-year #1's to make that deal a la the RG3 trade?)

 

 

It's too early for this conversation, because the narrative (at least in the media) come April could be Lawrence and then Fields/Wilson/Lance. I personally think Lance and Wilson end up going Top 10/15 in the end, and Fields is a sure-fire bet at #2. If JAX ends up loving Wilson or Lance maybe they make the trade with us if they know we want Fields and the price is lower. But in the end we do see that these trades rarely matriculate. Jacksonville will likely stay at #2 and take Fields.

 

Our best-case scenario is to finish with pick #2 and just control our destiny.

IMO the best-case possible scenario is that Trey Lance ends up falling because of his lack of game tape and 2020 experience. We take Sewell and then get Lance in R2, but that's probably fairly unlikely.

[CobraCommander]

22 minutes ago, ColonialWBSkinsFan said:

If we end up with #3, and Jacksonville is at #2, what would it realistically take to convince them to swap picks with us?   And would it be worth it for a chance for Fields?   (I say, absolutely YES, but would the Jags hold us hostage and hold out for multiple future-year #1's to make that deal a la the RG3 trade?)

 

I feel like they would way too much in return for moving up 1 pick. I don't like moving up especially when this team has so many holes to fill, not just QB or LT. If we're still at 3 then we can still have a top 3 qb. 

[The Consigliere]

On 11/15/2020 at 3:01 PM, IrepDC said:

Imagine using those 2nd and 3rd round picks on some of the best interior OL instead of taking a shot at another skill player? I watched the Browns OL run blocking today to reminisce when we prioritized that. The Browns. We have 1 level built on defense so LB is next up there. FA LB in their prime would be the one starter I'd pay premium for. If Sewell is gone in the 1st, I'm looking at Parsons. Our defense is FUN to watch if you put Parsons, and a mid-high price LB FA next to him(and maybe another low-price FA LB specializing in coverage), behind our DL. Run defense with some bite. I am doing whatever it takes to keep this DL group together, for at least 1 more contract each, and build around them. DL especially get value in those 2nd contracts and we need to capitalize on our investments. Build the OL through the draft, in those 2-4 rounds, and the skill players we have will be more entertaining.

 

We got our DL from Alabama, we go to Penn State to get our LBs.

 

Running is the least efficient choice you can make on offense. Literally any other choice is more efficient. I'd love to use one of the top 100 picks on an interior lineman, not arguing against. Obviously the OL needs a combo rebuild/retool, I just don't want people day dreaming about the hogs and the eighties. Those games were nearly 40 years ago and the league is much more passing based today. You want RB's that can pass block so you can use deception, same w/TE's that can play in line and as move options so you can go more to 12 personnel at a higher level. 

 

Parsons is literally a 1000% no go to me. Few positions are less cost effective there in the draft. It should be QB all day, and if you hate the options, trade up, and if you can't, trade down and reload to try again next year by adding '22 assets. Do not waste a top 5 first on an LB no matter how good he is. 

[Number 44]

11 minutes ago, Florgon79 said:

I feel like they would way too much in return for moving up 1 pick. I don't like moving up especially when this team has so many holes to fill, not just QB or LT. If we're still at 3 then we can still have a top 3 qb. 

This really depends on your valuations and tiers.  If you see a big drop off after the top 2 QBs and/or see less of a difference in your 3-4-5-6 QBs, then taking a third QB at 1.3 doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.  On the other hand, if you see that top tier as having 3 blue chip guys, as opposed to 2, then taking QB3 at 1.3 makes sense.  Still a lot of football to go, but right now I'd be opposed to QB3 at pick 3, as I believe there is a big drop after QB2.  I'd rather get the blue chip tackle and possibly get a QB in round 2 that really isn't a whole lot less of a prospect than the QB3 guy.  I understand that others see that differently and it really all depends on how Ron and Kyle's board shapes up.  I readily admit that I'm merely an interested fan and my expertise in player evaluations is pretty close to nonexistent.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

The free agency pool is not very good on offense this year. The only high-end options IMO are:

QB Dak Prescott (28) - $38m APY per Spotrac

WR Allen Robinson (28) - $19m APY per Spotrac

TE Hunter Henry (26) - $9m APY per Spotrac

LT Taylor Moton (28) - $17m APY per Spotrac

 

There are some options on the defensive side of the ball but nobody that jumps out to me as being a combination of young and elite. I'm sure we could piece together some decent FA acquisitions on defense at LB and FS given our current cap situation, which would hopefully open up the draft to going primarily with offensive talent early on. I am not banking on solving all the needs in one off-season. But if we are going to go QB in the Top 5, we had better double-down on surrounding that QB with talent early. I would hope we'd invest in the OL and WR/TE weapons. I have a hard time seeing us throw big $$ at someone like Sammy Watkins or TY Hilton, and Robinson may could get extended in Chicago. For me it's Allen Robinson + Hunter Henry on offense as primary offensive targets.

 

Not sure how Taylor Moton grades out at LT, but he may be someone to keep an eye on since Rivera drafted him in Carolina. Checking any of WR/LT/TE off in free agency shouldn't preclude going after those positions in the draft, but I think it definitely takes the weight off having to "hit" on those picks.

 

If we were to leave FA with Moton at LT and Henry at TE, then I would feel pretty good about going QB-WR in Round 1-2 and having the pieces on offense. This is a super deep class at WR ... and to a lesser extent TE ... a dream scenario would be getting Fields in Round 1, WR Chris Olave in Round 2.

[The Consigliere]

On 11/16/2020 at 5:29 AM, stoshuaj said:

 

Hardly anyone around here has the patience to give a Mahomes a year to sit and damn sure not allow a Josh Allen to develop.

 

And, neither of them were a top 1/2 pick so they’re no good anyway

 

Have never understood that.

 

Why? You've already put up with nearly 30 years of this ----, what's another year if it means having a legit long term answer at QB? It's NOTHING. 

 

I have the patience, if you don't, you're lying to yourself, you've had the patience already to be a continuing fan of this trash pile for 27 freaking years. If there's one thing people have around here, it's patience, they just don't want to respect that quality and have decision making be based on good process that sometimes requires it (and for the record, I don't think mahomes needed to sit, at all). The only reason to sit a QB these days is if you don't have the line in place to protect him (and that could be a legit qualm). 

[IrepDC]

2 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

Running is the least efficient choice you can make on offense. Literally any other choice is more efficient. I'd love to use one of the top 100 picks on an interior lineman, not arguing against. Obviously the OL needs a combo rebuild/retool, I just don't want people day dreaming about the hogs and the eighties. Those games were nearly 40 years ago and the league is much more passing based today. You want RB's that can pass block so you can use deception, same w/TE's that can play in line and as move options so you can go more to 12 personnel at a higher level. 

 

Parsons is literally a 1000% no go to me. Few positions are less cost effective there in the draft. It should be QB all day, and if you hate the options, trade up, and if you can't, trade down and reload to try again next year by adding '22 assets. Do not waste a top 5 first on an LB no matter how good he is. 

I don't get why some think LB isn't valuable. This is the player who leads the defense, calls the plays of defense, gets guys in place, wears the headset, and usually leads your team in tackles. This isn't valuable? Everyone knows that defense wins championships, but some think it just takes a magical QB, I guess. Even the Chiefs invested heavily into defense before making their run.  What we mean to symay is that LB is not a glamorous pick, but it's certainly valuable. Top defenses like the Steelers and Ravens, for example, always replenish their LBs, both recently in the 1st round. 

 

The hype for QB being a must is just that. Hype. Is a QB picked in the top 10 of the draft even top 10 in the NFL right now?

 

 

[Est.1974]

If we end up picking #3 then #35 then we must seriously consider going QB and LT. Even if that slides a handful of places, that combination looks a good one to me. LB next.

 

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

1 minute ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

If we end up picking #3 then #35 then we must seriously consider going QB and LT. Even if that slides a handful of places, that combination looks a good one to me. LB next.

 

On paper it appears to be a fairly deep class at OT, WR, TE, QB, which bodes well for our immediate projected needs. I think it'll depend on free agency. Reviewing some of the available talent to hit the market, there really aren't a ton of great WR options, nor QB (unless Dak gets loose). TE is basically just Hunter Henry. OT has Taylor Moton, who plays LT in Carolina and is the top available LT on the market. He has ties to Ron, so that one could make sense.

If we signed an OT in free agency that we can plug into LT then I would say QB-WR

If we don't get an OT, and focus mainly on defense and go into the draft with a need at QB, WR, LT, IOL and TE ... then I think you probably need to prioritize getting whoever your QB is some protection. But a second top tier WR would be so nice to pair with McLaurin. You can probably get something in R3 to contribute, but your odds of hitting on a true impact player are highest at 35.

So my hope is that we bring back Scherff, sign Henry and Moton in FA, and then draft QB-WR + maybe a developmental OT and TE in the 3rd, then just go defense the rest of the draft. Hopefully we can nail a good LB in free agency too.

 

We have a lot of cap space this upcoming off-season and many teams will be pinched, so I assume we can probably get most of our targets if they're willing to entertain coming to this dumpstert fire.

[OVCChairman]

2 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

On paper it appears to be a fairly deep class at OT, WR, TE, QB, which bodes well for our immediate projected needs. I think it'll depend on free agency. Reviewing some of the available talent to hit the market, there really aren't a ton of great WR options, nor QB (unless Dak gets loose). TE is basically just Hunter Henry. OT has Taylor Moton, who plays LT in Carolina and is the top available LT on the market. He has ties to Ron, so that one could make sense.

If we signed an OT in free agency that we can plug into LT then I would say QB-WR

If we don't get an OT, and focus mainly on defense and go into the draft with a need at QB, WR, LT, IOL and TE ... then I think you probably need to prioritize getting whoever your QB is some protection. But a second top tier WR would be so nice to pair with McLaurin. You can probably get something in R3 to contribute, but your odds of hitting on a true impact player are highest at 35.

So my hope is that we bring back Scherff, sign Henry and Moton in FA, and then draft QB-WR + maybe a developmental OT and TE in the 3rd, then just go defense the rest of the draft. Hopefully we can nail a good LB in free agency too.

 

We have a lot of cap space this upcoming off-season and many teams will be pinched, so I assume we can probably get most of our targets if they're willing to entertain coming to this dumpstert fire.

 

 

i also think there will be some surprise cuts given the circumstances... see Carson Wentz / Matthew Stafford.... not that I would necessarily target one of those guys, but there are going to be some desperate teams if the cap in fact goes down like they're saying it 'could.'  Teams are going to be forced to cut ties with massive salaries and look to the draft to fill holes.  It also will pull 60% of the teams out of the free agent market simply because they just can't afford to pay anyone. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

@OVCChairman I posted this yesterday in the draft pick thread, but based on the OvertheCap projected reduction to $176m cap, and the current cap space that (mostly) would roll over into next year ... here's what the caps would look like going into FA.

1. Jaguars - $82.7m

2. Jets - $80.5m

3. Colts - $76.4m

4. Patriots - $64.2m

5. Football Team: $52.3m ($66.3m if Smith cut)

6. Bengals - $44.6m

7. Chargers - $32m

8. Dolphins - $31.8m

9. Bucs - $30.3m

10. Ravens - $30.1m

11. Broncos - $28.2m

12. Browns - $27.4m

13. Cowboys - $27.4m

14. Cardinals - $25.9m

15. Giants - $23.3m

16. 49ers - $22.2m

17. Panthers - $19.8m

18. Seahawks - $19.2m

19. Lions - $13.4m

20. Titans - $6.4m

21. Packers - $1.9m

22. Bills - $1.6m

23. Bears - $0.2m

24. Vikings - ($5.0m)

25. Raiders - ($6.5m)

26. Texans - ($9.5m)

27. Chiefs - ($12.8m)

28. Rams - ($19.3m)

29. Steelers - ($19.7m)

30. Falcons - ($24.8m)

31. Eagles - ($64.3m)

32. Saints - ($94.1m)

[OVCChairman]

Just now, JamesMadisonSkins said:

@OVCChairman I posted this yesterday in the draft pick thread, but based on the OvertheCap projected reduction to $176m cap, and the current cap space that (mostly) would roll over into next year ... here's what the caps would look like going into FA.

 

21	Chicago Bears	32	27	$178,927,585	$1,868,658	$180,796,243	$2,162,664	$180,796,243	$2,162,664
22	Detroit Lions	38	26.32	$186,090,657	$360,352	$186,451,009	$1,604,482	$186,451,009	$1,604,482
23	Minnesota Vikings	41	26	$184,185,586	$481,690	$184,667,276	$-6,050,973	$184,667,276	$-6,050,973
24	Las Vegas Raiders	39	26.18	$186,698,821	$1,220,768	$187,919,589	$-6,299,862	$187,919,589	$-6,299,862
25	Houston Texans	38	26.84	$194,465,143	$360,773	$194,825,916	$-12,761,199	$194,825,916	$-12,761,199
26	Kansas City Chiefs	34	26.41	$195,313,505	$693,525	$196,007,030	$-15,345,716	$196,007,030	$-15,345,716
27	Green Bay Packers	37	26.11	$197,163,832	$353,141	$197,516,973	$-17,385,845	$197,516,973	$-17,385,845
28	Los Angeles Rams	42	25.76	$192,440,448	$8,592,097	$201,032,545	$-17,732,648	$201,032,545	$-17,732,648
29	Pittsburgh Steelers	33	26.7	$201,016,140	$362,962	$201,379,102	$-20,084,938	$201,379,102	$-20,084,938
30	Atlanta Falcons	32	26.66	$195,601,358	$7,657,002	$203,258,360	$-24,869,762	$203,258,360	$-24,869,762
31	Philadelphia Eagles	41	26.71	$260,273,935	$538,858	$260,812,793	$-63,182,231	$260,812,793	$-63,182,231
32	New Orleans Saints	46	27.78	$276,230,201	$234,005	$276,464,206	$-95,334,895	$276,464,206	$-95,334,895

 

 

To take it further, that first number next to the team name is the players they have under contract in 2021.  Atlanta can hardly field enough players to cover both sides of the ball and Special Teams, and they're $25 mil in the hole.  Detroit has 38 players and Stafford's cap number jumps from $21.3m to $33m.   Green Bay drafted Love because Rodgers may ultimately be gone.  His cap number jumps from $21.6m to $36.3m.  Post June 1 cut of Rodgers nets them $22m in savings.. 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

25 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

i also think there will be some surprise cuts given the circumstances... see Carson Wentz / Matthew Stafford.... not that I would necessarily target one of those guys, but there are going to be some desperate teams if the cap in fact goes down like they're saying it 'could.'  Teams are going to be forced to cut ties with massive salaries and look to the draft to fill holes.  It also will pull 60% of the teams out of the free agent market simply because they just can't afford to pay anyone. 

 

Wouldn't they both be massive cap hits, Stafford almost 40 million.  Wentz would be abuit 106 million dead cap.   i've heard the Stafford rumors but unless am missing something they would take some bad cap hits to move on.  Wentz I think no way can get released. 

 

 

Edited November 17, 2020 by Skinsinparadise

[method man]

7 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

 

 

Good be a Scherff replacement in the 2nd

[OVCChairman]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Wouldn't they both be massive cap hits, Stafford almost 70 million.  Wentz about 130 million.  i've heard the Stafford rumors but unless am missing something they would take some killer cap hits to move on. 

 

 

If you look right there, 2021 'out' drops dead cap to $24.85m TOTAL instead of paying him $52+M over he final 2 years. 

 

Cut with June 1 designation allowing it to be pushed out.  That saves the team $8.3M while taking a $13m dead cap hit.   They could draft a guy in the first with this penalty and still come out ahead

 

It's not ideal for either team... but they're going to get desperate.  I don't see how Philly can even play a game under he cap. The cap hit for Wentz is ENORMOUS, but where else are you going to make room?

[KDawg]

Stafford is likely to be dealt or released next year if they're going to do it. This off season probably won't be it. 

[method man]

At tackle, you've lost some of the options as Dawkins and Stanley signed extensions. In addition to Moton, you still have Okung, Villanueva and Cam Robinson (leaving out Trent for obvious reasons). Riley Reiff may get cut and be available too. The easiest move to make is to pay top dollar to Moton if Ron likes him for their Carolina days (and that is if he doesn't get franchised). Otherwise, you could make a play for Okung, Villanueva or Reiff as short term upgrades. You just have to keep in mind that Okung has missed a significant number of games the past two years. With Okung and Reiff, you are not precluded from taking a LT of the future as both guys can move to guard if necessary.

[Skinsinparadise]

2 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

If you look right there, 2021 'out' drops dead cap to $24.85m TOTAL instead of paying him $52+M over he final 2 years. 

 

Cut with June 1 designation allowing it to be pushed out.  That saves the team $8.3M while taking a $13m dead cap hit.   They could draft a guy in the first with this penalty and still come out ahead

 

It's not ideal for either team... but they're going to get desperate.  I don't see how Philly can even play a game under he cap. The cap hit for Wentz is ENORMOUS, but where else are you going to make room?

 

That's true. But a 25 million hit might be painful in a year with likely a lower cap.  Wentz's out is 2022. 

 

 

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, method man said:

At tackle, you've lost some of the options as Dawkins and Stanley signed extensions. In addition to Moton, you still have Okung, Villanueva and Cam Robinson (leaving out Trent for obvious reasons). Riley Reiff may get cut and be available too. The easiest move to make is to pay top dollar to Moton if Ron likes him for their Carolina days (and that is if he doesn't get franchised). Otherwise, you could make a play for Okung, Villanueva or Reiff as short term upgrades. You just have to keep in mind that Okung has missed a significant number of games the past two years. With Okung and Reiff, you are not precluded from taking a LT of the future as both guys can move to guard if necessary.

 

You know...

 

I'm not sure we should count our Lucas at this point. 

 

I'm not saying we shouldn't look to upgrade the offensive line. We need to shore it up. But the line has played better... could be a time to gel thing or that they are just doing better with different QBs back there. 

 

I went from being completely concerned with it second only to QB to it falling behind LB in the need department. It's probably even in my head with FS,TE and WR2.

[OVCChairman]

1 minute ago, KDawg said:

 

You know...

 

I'm not sure we should count our Lucas at this point. 

 

I'm not saying we shouldn't look to upgrade the offensive line. We need to shore it up. But the line has played better... could be a time to gel thing or that they are just doing better with different QBs back there. 

 

I went from being completely concerned with it second only to QB to it falling behind LB in the need department. It's probably even in my head with FS,TE and WR2.

 

 

I agree.  He may not be a world beater, but if he's good enough to let you use that higher pick elsewhere to elevate the team as a whole.... 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

McLaurin is a monster, and Gandy-Golden and Harmon could very well end up being solid contributors along with the two Sims' ... but we absolutely need an upgrade at WR2. Can't take another 4th round flier. We have to get a guy that projects as a possible WR1 to pair with Terry. I think you can certainly hit on a guy in R3 like we did with Terry, but I think you're best bet is to get a guy in the early 2nd.

[The Consigliere]

4 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Just some corrections: Jackson was drafted in 2018, not 17.

 

And I'd definitely put Murray in the top 10 this year. Hell is the

4 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

I don't want to settle for a lesser QB prospect. We tried that with the likes of Ramsey, Campbell, and Haskins.

 

The one time we shot the moon we got RG3. Yeah it was only one season, but imagine if he stayed healthy. That's what you're gunning for.

 

If we have to settle for like the 4th or 5th best prospect then just roll with Kyle Allen for another year because there is probably no discernible difference.

 

 

 

We don't know who the inflated QB prospect is yet. We may not even have one (though it does seem like Lance). 

 

Lawrence and Fields were the givens this year. Projected #1 and #2 and potentially best in a decade QB prospects in the minds of many for at least a year and for some far longer. 

 

Lance is a small sample guy, not a fast riser, people have to decide what they think based on the limited window of what they say. 

 

The BYU is a fast riser, but then again, so was Kyler Murray. Murray was projected to be a baseball player, not even a quarterback in the summer of 2018, that was the view of a majority of people. Two years later he is a rising favorite to contend with Mahomes and Wilson for MVP. Wilson looked great as a pup, fell off last year, and now is having his breakout season just in time. What do we take from that? Not sure, but we'll have something on the order of 30 games of tape to grind and 30 games worth of data to analyze. So who knows if he's inflated. We'll see.

 

I'd personally trade up for Fields/Lawrence, then again, I would've been in full tank mode in the offseason and into the season period. I wouldn't have cared a whit about the season, especially w/the Covid angle, and would've used it as a means to jump into the #1 overall stakes by betting on youth and trading '20 assets for '21, but that's if we weren't taking Tua. Alas we didnt do literally anything I wanted. That's par for the course, it just sucks when this happens w/a once a decade prospect. It's exactly what I wanted us to do in 2011 as well and instead we won a few meaningless games and loss Luck to the Colts. It's depressing to see us doing the exact same thing a decade later. Maybe Wilson is the hidden third stud QB in that draft like Wilson was back then? We'll see. I wouldn't throw out the idea of drafting him though, there's plenty of tape and numbers to grind as I mentioned. 

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

McLaurin is a monster, and Gandy-Golden and Harmon could very well end up being solid contributors along with the two Sims' ... but we absolutely need an upgrade at WR2. Can't take another 4th round flier. We have to get a guy that projects as a possible WR1 to pair with Terry. I think you can certainly hit on a guy in R3 like we did with Terry, but I think you're best bet is to get a guy in the early 2nd.

 

I don't think it necessarily has to be a receiver.

 

It has to be a reception monster who can get some YAC. That can be a tight end.

 

Granted, we have a ton of holes.

 

I still say QB and LB are the two most absolute glaring weaknesses. There's a ton of them... but those are the big ones.

 

A pass catcher and a free safety (and a strong safety if I'm being honest) are right there as well, along with shoring up the OL which I might actually put below at least 1 safety.