2021 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Warhead36]

Wilson is more Josh Allen to me. Lance is Lamar Jackson but not quite as quick I don't think.

[philibusters]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

My best shot at this:  And granted things chance a lot, this is way early in the draft process.

 

Lawrence -- Andrew Luck.  Different stylistically to each other but similar caliber.  Slam dunk the #1 pick in the draft

Fields -- aa bigger and potentialy better Kyler Murray.  Slam dunk the #2 pick in the draft

 

The top 2 QBs potential of being studs is really high.  I think both will be stars. 

 

Then:

Zach Wilson -- faster and more agile Tony Romo?  Some injury concerns based on his past and style of play.  My guess right now he goes #4.

Trey Lance -- a more raw RG3?  My guess is he goes somewhere between #5 and #15

 

Then:

Mac Jones -- Kirk Cousins type at best?.  My guess late first rounder/early 2nd. 

Kyle Trask -- I don't think the dude will make it but some do believe in him.  My guess is 2nd round.

 

I'd personally bet against either guy Jones or Trask becoming a top 10 QB.  I'd guess they end up Keenum types.

 

Then a bunch of wildcards. (3rd-6th round)

Newman, Mond, Franks, Ridder and others.  Right now my favorite in that bunch is Ridder but I haven't watched them all.  If I had to go with a darkhorse candidate who might make it in the NFL, I'd probably go Ridder.  

 

 

 

On average there is probably 1.5  QBs who for at least one season will be a top 10 QB.  Sometimes you get 3 like in 2017 with Mahomes, Watson, and Jackson, but it averages out because in 2016 you get zero.   In 2018, you have none so far, but it wouldn't be surprising for Allen to be a top 10 QB for a season, he feels close and isn't far off this season.  In 2019 its only year 2 and you have none, but Kyle Murray is similar to Allen in that he is barely outside the top 10 this season so you would expect him to get at some point.

 

I would say Kirk Cousins has never had a season where he is a top 10 QB (though he wasn't far off) so if guys like Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, and Kyle Trask have a Kirk Cousins career they were probably worth the first round pick.

Edited November 17, 2020 by philibusters

[Number 44]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I'd personally bet against either guy Jones or Trask becoming a top 10 QB.

 

In fairness, it would be unusual to bet on any QB entering any draft ever to become a top 10 QB in the NFL, wouldn't it?  NFL top 10 as an expectation?  I think that may be a tall order for anyone.

 

Speaking of Jones, the chief "negative" comment I keep seeing here about him here seems to be simply the school that he plays for, which doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.  Wondering what you see as the negative marks for Jones, as he frankly has caught my eye in an impressive way this year.

[Skinsinparadise]

Just now, philibusters said:

 

I would say Kirk Cousins has never had a season where he is a top 10 QB (though he wasn't far off) so if guys like Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, and Kyle Trask have a Kirk Cousins career they were probably worth the first round pick.

 

Mostly agree.  I think Kirk is in the 10-12 range.  Worse than that though this year. 

 

I think Zach Wilson might end up better than Kirk.  My gut right now is Kirk > Jones.  And Kirk easily over Trask.  I think Trask ends up a bust.  But that's just my guess. 

 

2012 not bad:  Luck, (one year of RG3), Tannehill, Wilson, Kirk, Foles.  This year could be something like that. 

[Skinsinparadise]

44 minutes ago, Number 44 said:

In fairness, it would be unusual to bet on any QB entering any draft ever to become a top 10 QB in the NFL, wouldn't it?  NFL top 10 as an expectation?  I think that may be a tall order for anyone.

 

Speaking of Jones, the chief "negative" comment I keep seeing here about him here seems to be simply the school that he plays for, which doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.  Wondering what you see as the negative marks for Jones, as he frankly has caught my eye in an impressive way this year.

Agree.  But my point there is I'd bet on some QB's upside over others.  Anyone can be a bust.  And agree most (especially the 2nd tier types) are going to end up busts becuase that's the odds.  Heck that's practically my mantra about the quarterback position on this thread and others with a few arguing well this dude wasn't the top Qb in the draft yet he ended up the best so who cares if you get the reputed top prospect.   

 

Sure, yeah for example Russell Wilson ended up better than Andrew Luck. 

 

But those who make those points are using selective stats and IMO just making themsleves feel good and relaxed about not having a top pick and think this time it will be different as for the results.  Just take whomever and nuture him and all will be fine because heck didn't they play well in college?    Well for me I like the freaks.  Murray was a freak.  Lawrence is a freak.  so is Fields.  The odds that the freak QB explodes in the NFL are might higher than Mac Jones grows, finds the right system and finds the perfect supporting cast, etc. 

 

 If you just look at the bust rates with Qbs even in the 2nd round, its staggering.  Some will argue screw the stats just look at Drew Brees, he was a 2nd rounder.  And why can't that be us?  But to me that's akin to saying hey if that dude won the lottery, why can't I?  And why not keep buying lottery tickets, etc.  Well, the reason for it is if you keep playing a game where the odds are running against you and you sell yourself that this time it will be different -- don't be surprised when you aren't part of the crowd that beats the odds.    Statistically speaking you are more likely to fail when you are picking through the next rung of QBs.  The Russell Wilson types are the unicorns not the norm. 

 

I watched in person us slaugher the Cardinals a couple or so years ago.  The game was a lopsided joke.  Now the Cards can beat us like its a lopsided joke and are a real threat to make the SB.  How did all of that change so fast? Obviously it's that the Cards got the top Qb in the draft and the dude is a stud.  The fact that Winston didn't end up a stud years before or name that other QB had no bearing on it.  Every player is different.  Murray was special.  it wasn't hard to see Winston was not.   On the same token, IMO Fields is special.  If Jacksonville gets him and we lets say end up with Mac Jones.  I think Jacksonville quickly become relevant and we likely won't be.  Simple as that.  No guarantees.  But if I went to Vegas I'd bet on it. 

 

I don't like Jones or Trask's upside if that's the more political way to make my point. 😀

 

I am rolling the dice already plenty with my opinons.  And it might change as I digest more.  At this point in the draft process I liked Haskins for example but turned the opposite way as the draft got closer and I digested more about him and watched more.  

 

Right now i got Trevor and Fields as not just successes but studs.  The top 2 QBs ending up studs is rare.  So i am putting myself out there on them.  I like Zach Wilson but I am no where as confident about him as i am on the top 2.   On a different thread, i even came off like a Wilson hater because unlike some there i don't think he's better than Fields.  Personally though, I am relatively higher on Wilson than the average draft geek some of whom have him as a mid to late first rounder.  I see Wilson going slam dunk top 5 and maybe as early as 3.

 

I am not as high on Trask as the average draft geek I follow.  i think he ends up a bust or just a backup.    I am about the same place as most draft geeks on Jones.  i am lower than the typical draft geek on Lance.  I think for Lance you got to have faith in a Ravens style offense working for him.

 

i am higher than most on Ridder, I'd take him over Trask for sure.

 

So i think my neck is stuck out plenty.  But as I said my mind likely changes on some of this.  I've watched more quarterbacks this year at this point than any other year since 2012.  And obviously i am not a professional at this.  Tough enough for professionals to get it right let alone people like me.  But heck part of the fun of the draft thread is taking your best shot at it.   So that's what i am doing. 😀

Edited November 17, 2020 by Skinsinparadise

[Warhead36]

44 minutes ago, philibusters said:

 

On average there is probably 1.5  QBs who for at least one season will be a top 10 QB.  Sometimes you get 3 like in 2017 with Mahomes, Watson, and Jackson, but it averages out because in 2016 you get zero.   In 2018, you have none so far, but it wouldn't be surprising for Allen to be a top 10 QB for a season, he feels close and isn't far off this season.  In 2019 its only year 2 and you have none, but Kyle Murray is similar to Allen in that he is barely outside the top 10 this season so you would expect him to get at some point.

 

I would say Kirk Cousins has never had a season where he is a top 10 QB (though he wasn't far off) so if guys like Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, and Kyle Trask have a Kirk Cousins career they were probably worth the first round pick.

Just some corrections: Jackson was drafted in 2018, not 17.

 

And I'd definitely put Murray in the top 10 this year. Hell he might be an MVP candidate.

[Skinsinparadise]

42 minutes ago, Number 44 said:

 

Speaking of Jones, the chief "negative" comment I keep seeing here about him here seems to be simply the school that he plays for, which doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.  Wondering what you see as the negative marks for Jones, as he frankly has caught my eye in an impressive way this year.

 

My longer post above sort of sums up my take on Jones is that I am wary about any QB that doesn't come off to me special.  My goal isn't one day to become 9-7.  I liked Kirk (still do) better than most on the board.  But I still don't want to take a dude where their upside is maybe if we are lucky he can turn into someone like Kirk.  For starters, the typical project QB doesn't turn into Kirk.  But the larger point is in today's NFL you want that monster QB, not just a good one.

 

I've watched most of Mac's games including one game i saw in person.   He's a really good college QB.  Does he transate to the pros?  I don't know.  But I've seen enough to know he's not a monster talent.  He has a good arm (but not a great one) and a good deep ball.  I think his touch in the short intermediate game is inconsistent.  But the short of it is he's a pure pocket passer.  And if i am going for a pure pocket passer, i am looking for special.  And i don't think he's that.  i prefer a QB with some mobility. 

Edited November 17, 2020 by Skinsinparadise

[Warhead36]

I don't want to settle for a lesser QB prospect. We tried that with the likes of Ramsey, Campbell, and Haskins.

 

The one time we shot the moon we got RG3. Yeah it was only one season, but imagine if he stayed healthy. That's what you're gunning for.

 

If we have to settle for like the 4th or 5th best prospect then just roll with Kyle Allen for another year because there is probably no discernible difference.

[method man]

1 minute ago, Warhead36 said:

I don't want to settle for a lesser QB prospect. We tried that with the likes of Ramsey, Campbell, and Haskins.

 

The one time we shot the moon we got RG3. Yeah it was only one season, but imagine if he stayed healthy. That's what you're gunning for.

 

If we have to settle for like the 4th or 5th best prospect then just roll with Kyle Allen for another year because there is probably no discernible difference.

 

I agree. I would do what I can to ensure I get one of the big 3

[Warhead36]

5 minutes ago, method man said:

 

I agree. I would do what I can to ensure I get one of the big 3

I would say right now its big 2 between Lawrence and Fields. I think for most people there is a bit of a drop off from Fields to Wilson but not by a lot(me personally I don't think there is any in fact I might take Wilson over Fields straight up but I'm not an expert).

 

Its important that if we're not picking top 2, that the teams picking ahead of us don't need QBs. Dallas probably won't go QB at 3, and Cincy and LA Chargers definitely won't.

[method man]

1 minute ago, Warhead36 said:

I would say right now its big 2 between Lawrence and Fields. I think for most people there is a bit of a drop off from Fields to Wilson but not by a lot(me personally I don't think there is any in fact I might take Wilson over Fields straight up but I'm not an expert).

 

Its important that if we're not picking top 2, that the teams picking ahead of us don't need QBs. Dallas probably won't go QB at 3, and Cincy and LA Chargers definitely won't.

 

Good news is as that all 3 teams need Sewell

[Number 44]

Skinsinparadise, I tend to agree on Lawrence and Fields, but as things stand, we appear to be on the outside looking in on those two guys.  If one is available at our pick, yeah, pull the trigger, but that doesn't seem all that likely right now.  Also agree on Lance, as he just seems to be too much of a project to use a high 1st round pick on, IMO.

 

The thing is, to me, I wouldn't like using pick #3 (if that's where we draft) on Wilson.  I'd much rather take a stud like Sewell and then see if a QB we are high on makes it back.  I think Jones in the second round would be a good value, based on what I've seen of him so far.  I'm still not sure I understand what the negatives are on him.  Now, a team like Pittsburgh may be in the market for the eventual Big Ben replacement in the late first round, and they may well be taking a hard look at Jones, so he may not make it back to us.  If we don't get one of the top two and a guy we like doesn't make it back to us for round 2, perhaps the FA market can provide a short-term answer until we are able to draft our future QB.

 

It'll be interesting to see how this all plays out in the coming months.

[Skinsinparadise]

2 minutes ago, method man said:

 

I agree. I would do what I can to ensure I get one of the big 3

 

 I am in the top 3 or bust crowd right now, too.  Though i wouldn't mind Ridder as a flier later in the draft. 

 

I hate to do this two years in a row but I want them to lose now.  My hunch if you can't go lower than 4 if the goal is to end up with Wilson.  I see Wilson later than that in most mocks but that's par for the course this early in the draft for the typical media draft geek who for whatever reason take their time to elevate QB risers in their mocks.

 

The Cincy game worries me.  I think we beat them.   

[KDawg]

Now that we have a positive Covid test and the facility is closed... Cincy looks like they may have a leg up.

[OVCChairman]

10 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Now that we have a positive Covid test and the facility is closed... Cincy looks like they may have a leg up.

 

 

Alex being the QB can help equalize that.  I feel a bit more confident in him, as crazy as that sounds. 

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

Alex being the QB can help equalize that.  I feel a bit more confident in him, as crazy as that sounds. 

Assuming he isn’t the positive.

 

We don’t know who at this point I don’t think.

[OVCChairman]

1 minute ago, KDawg said:

Assuming he isn’t the positive.

 

We don’t know who at this point I don’t think.

 

 

report is the positive was not with the team in Detroit. 

 

 

 

Edited November 17, 2020 by OVCChairman

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

Wilson is more Josh Allen to me. Lance is Lamar Jackson but not quite as quick I don't think.

 

I saw Matt Miller make that analogy on twitter and got slammed some for it.  I get his point and yours.  To each their own but I see it different.  Josh Allen is a freak of nature.  Big dude.  Rocket of an arm.  Fast.  A bit raw and inaccurate in college.

 

Zach has a very good arm but not an elite arm like Allen.   Allen ran almost as much in one game as Zach has all season.  Zach has if anything a slight frame. 

 

I think Zach is an elusive, throw off platform, gambiling, accurate QB.   to me he's a cross between Mahomes and Romo.  What makes him fun for me is he an elusive dude when the pocket breaks down, has a never say die approach, and will make off platform throws.  

 

Brugler on Wilson below:

 

[Skinsinparadise]

42 minutes ago, Number 44 said:

 

 

The thing is, to me, I wouldn't like using pick #3 (if that's where we draft) on Wilson.  I'd much rather take a stud like Sewell and then see if a QB we are high on makes it back. 

 

I love Sewell.  But not me on this one.  I'd go Wilson.  The story of this franchise under Dan being a loser centers on the Qb position.  The lack of hope in that spot IMO is part of why so many fans have checked out.  We just don't seem to be part of the party in the NFL when it comes to having a QB that can go toe to toe with the league's best.

 

We've been there done that with having top left tackles.  We've even tried the build the big time supporting cast with the thought of then the QB will come.  None of it has worked.  You can't keep IMO dancing around the main plot line.   I am not as sold on Wilson as I am on Fields.  But am sold enough to roll the dice.

 

42 minutes ago, Number 44 said:

 

 

The thing is, to me, I wouldn't like using pick #3 (if that's where we draft) on Wilson.  I'd much rather take a stud like Sewell and then see if a QB we are high on makes it back.  I think Jones in the second round would be a good value, based on what I've seen of him so far.  I'm still not sure I understand what the negatives are on him. 

 

I am ok with Jones in the 2nd round.  i am just saying i'd bet against him being the answer.  the negatives on him are mainly that he's not mobile or an off platform guy.  He's not going to have 5 seconds to throw the ball in the NFL like he often had in Alabama where he can fling it far and assume that Waddle or Smith will get behind the defender just about every time or if not they will wrestle the ball into their hands. 

 

He has a good arm and throws well with anticpation.  Among the 2nd tier types, he might be my favorite so am not down on Jones.  But i am just down on banking on the 2nd tier types developing considering most of them don't.  The key as Shanny would say for these type of QBs is their intangibles. If they work like a maniac and prepare well -- you never know.  But as Shanny has said, he doesn't know if that's how they roll until they are in the building. 

 

Edited November 17, 2020 by Skinsinparadise

[Thinking Skins]

5 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

The key as Shanny would say for these type of QBs is their intangibles.

Thats what I like about Fields but I also liked that about Haskins until now that its coming out that what I was hearing about him living and breathing football and stuff wasnt backed up by other things. I'm still not sure what I believe. Same goes for RG3 and his brains (graduating early, being prelaw, knowing plays, doing the Gruden thing) but he couldn't drop back or slide. 

 

How do you measure hard work? 

[KDawg]

Just now, Thinking Skins said:

Thats what I like about Fields but I also liked that about Haskins until now that its coming out that what I was hearing about him living and breathing football and stuff wasnt backed up by other things. I'm still not sure what I believe. Same goes for RG3 and his brains (graduating early, being prelaw, knowing plays, doing the Gruden thing) but he couldn't drop back or slide. 

 

How do you measure hard work? 

Griffin’s biggest problem was that he thought he was a pocket passer when that’s never what he was.

[Skinsinparadise]

17 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

 

How do you measure hard work? 

 

Shanny said its when you have a player in the building, its not hard to see how they prepare.  Studying for example, staying late watching film with assistant coaches, etc.  I recall for example Grant Paulsen saying back when he was a beat writer that almost every time he was in the player lounge he'd see Kirk studying the playbook on his IPAD.  I recall the sorry about Jay would run into Holcomb early in the morning during camp studying his playbook outside of where he got his coffee.

 

Coaches aren't stupid.  It's not hard to gauge who is working hard and who isn't.    I have employees who work for me, I know who kill it and who doesn't.  It's not that hard. 

 

 

Edited November 17, 2020 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[method man]

25 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Shanny said its when you have a player in the building, its not hard to see how they prepare.  Studying for example, staying late watching film with assistant coaches, etc.  I recall for example Grant Paulsen saying back when he was a beat writer that almost every time he was in the player lounge he'd see Kirk studying the playbook on his IPAD.  I recall the sorry about Jay would run into Holcomb early in the morning during camp studying his playbook outside of where he got his coffee.

 

Coaches aren't stupid.  It's not hard to gauge who is working hard and who isn't.    I have employees who work for me, I know who kill it and who doesn't.  It's not that hard. 

 

 

 

With Wilson too, you have tangible examples. The guy was driving 20 hours roundtrip every week to SoCal during the offseason to go train at John Beck's QB camp. Now, that is serious commitment. 

[ColonialWBSkinsFan]

If we end up with #3, and Jacksonville is at #2, what would it realistically take to convince them to swap picks with us?   And would it be worth it for a chance for Fields?   (I say, absolutely YES, but would the Jags hold us hostage and hold out for multiple future-year #1's to make that deal a la the RG3 trade?)