Going Commando Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 On 10/15/2020 at 1:20 PM, philibusters said: Complete these sentences: Trevor Lawrence is the best NFL QB draft prospect since... Penai Sewell is the best NFL LT draft prospect since... Micah Parsons is the best NFL 4-3 LB draft prospect since... Ja'Marr Chase is the best NFL WR draft prospect since... Nobody said he was top 5, but people are saying he is a game changer. TJ Hockenson in 2019 and Eric Ebron in 2014 where the last two to go top 10. Before that you have to go back to 2006 when former Terp and Redskin Vernon Davis went number 6 overall after running a 4.38 forty at the NFL combine. Lawrence - DeShaun Watson for me, but I had the dude #1/#1 in his class, and quite frankly he got inexcusably overlooked as a prospect and racial bias was a big factor in that. Andrew Luck is probably the more common answer. DeShaun was one of the best QB prospects I'd ever evaluated and I was begging for us to trade Kirk to get the #2 pick that year to draft him. Sewell - I've been saying Orlando Pace in answering this question, and he feels like that kind of player if he'd had a three year career. But the safer answer is probably Trent Williams or Tunsil. OT is funny and tough to project at times. Luke Joeckel was a really good prospect who fell apart in the NFL. Robert Gallery was one of the most hyped prospects ever and he really struggled in the NFL too. The Tony Mandarich outcome is always a little scary because you're never sure which guys are genetic freaks and which are abusing the **** out of PEDs in college. Sewell seems like a natural born freak and the real deal, but there is always a chance he doesn't make it. Parsons - I compared him to Darius Leonard earlier in the thread but Leonard was a bit of a small school sleeper in his class. I think Roquan Smith was probably the last stack linebacker prospect this good, but he was smaller. Who I really want to say is Khalil Mack, but Mack ended up moving to edge rusher in the NFL and pretty much plays there exclusively. I don't think that's how Parsons's career will play out. Mack had a more productive college career too, so you're taking a leap of faith if you think Parsons can be as good based off just one season really. Chase - Probably Amari Cooper, but Cooper took a while to live up to his potential. Chase seems tougher and more aggressive than him. This is a weird one because the guys that Chase really compares to are Michael Thomas and Davante Adams and DeAndre Hopkins and those guys weren't that highly regarded as prospects. If Chase gets picked tip five, he can probably thank Hopkins (in addition to Joe Burrow and Joe Brady) for paving the way for him to get his proper appreciation and show us what guys like them can do in the NFL. TE drafting has been absolutely treacherous in the first round for most of the past two decades. Teams miss on the Travis Kelces and George Kittles and have frequently whiffed when trying to chase that Gates/Gonzalez basketball athlete who can block. I don't think any position has produced a higher rate of first round disappointments since Miami stopped churning out no doubters at the position. I think Eiffert was the last big time first rounder prospect to actually pan out. Big part of that is the position is absolutely brutal to play and it takes way more than athleticism to be a good middle of the field receiver in the NFL and most of the guys who get projected high don't actually have that good of a foundation of receiver skills. They're just big athletes. They don't win the trust of their staffs and qbs like the lesser heralded guys who are already dope receivers coming in, and maybe they don't get picked high because they aren't as athletic or they don't project well as blockers. At any rate, Pitts and Freirmuth look good enough to me that I would take the chance on them in the first round anyway. Pitts has NFL ready receiver skills, his blocking is pretty irrelevant to how he can be used and how he can star at the next level. And Freirmuth has the size and physicality to his game that vintage Gronk had, plus he's a very refined receiver out of wide Y and H looks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDawg Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 (edited) @stevemcqueen1 I agree with most of what you just said above, man. I’m higher on Fields than Lawrence, as noted here, but I think Lawrence with some NFL time is going to blossom to be special, too. In reading the rest, I found myself nodding with most of your takes. Then I got to tight end and I big nodded. I almost feel like the less productive, but steady college tight ends are easier to project as being decent NFL players (Keene and Asiasi for instance) than the top end guys are. One guy who stands out, who isn’t draft eligible but I would absolutely love to have on this roster is Jaylen Wydermyer. This guy can do a bit of everything. He’s probably the best pure right end in college ball from a blocking and receiving perspective. You could probably but Friermuth in that bubble, too. And maybe Hunter Long. Pitts and Jordan project more as pass catchers than overall tight ends to me... which would still fill a need for us, but won’t help with in-line tight end work. But that’s a thought for next year. Side note: I like to look at stats and film when looking at these guys. Try to understand the context for the stats and understand them as players. Towards the end of last year’s scouting for the draft I added another element: Eye Pop. To me, that means when watching a game normally, do they pop off the screen? Good? Bad? That helps me to understand a prospect. None of those things really make it a better projection, but I do think those things matter. You can never account for the psyche of a guy and how he’ll handle the NFL. You can project based on interviews and references when you’re actually scouting... but it’s tough to ever know. Edited October 17, 2020 by KDawg 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anselmheifer Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 Man. Can Dallas even afford Dak? I don't think they have the cap room. I'd be mighty tempted to try to sign Dak and draft Sewell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Sinister Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said: Man. Can Dallas even afford Dak? I don't think they have the cap room. I'd be mighty tempted to try to sign Dak and draft Sewell. Not after that nasty injury. I doubt he'll be able to play in 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OVCChairman Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said: Man. Can Dallas even afford Dak? I don't think they have the cap room. I'd be mighty tempted to try to sign Dak and draft Sewell. I actually dont hate this.... it just closes that ever important window of winning while your starting QB is on their rookie deal. I think Dak Prescott as our starting QB with Penei Sewell at LT is better in 2020 and 2021 than having Lawrence or Fields at QB and not spending a high pick on LT. The window may be bigger but it's likely open for less time... That said, Mr Sinister brings up a good point... not sure he's able to play next year... at least not at the start of the season. Edited October 17, 2020 by OVCChairman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistertim Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 17 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said: Man. Can Dallas even afford Dak? I don't think they have the cap room. I'd be mighty tempted to try to sign Dak and draft Sewell. I'm with @Mr. Sinisteron this one. That was a compound ankle fracture that he suffered. Dak isn't coming back for a while. Even when he does, there's no way to know if he'll be the same guy, as part of what made him good was his ability to scramble and extend plays. I'd stay away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anselmheifer Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 17 minutes ago, Mr. Sinister said: Not after that nasty injury. I doubt he'll be able to play in 2021 I just watched the video for the 1st time. Awful to watch. Still, the season starts in what, 10 months? And he's a veteran. He doesn't have to learn to read an NFL defense. He just needs to learn the vocabulary. This could be the kind of thing that mirrors Drew Brees becoming available, partially because of injury. I also wouldn't hate a trade up for Lawrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owa Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 22 minutes ago, Mr. Sinister said: Not after that nasty injury. I doubt he'll be able to play in 2021 An article I read at profootballtalk made it seem like he would. I think his doctors expect him to be ready for the last part of their off-season program (should be healed in 4-6 months if there aren't any setbacks). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philibusters Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 21 minutes ago, OVCChairman said: I actually dont hate this.... it just closes that ever important window of winning while your starting QB is on their rookie deal. I think Dak Prescott as our starting QB with Penei Sewell at LT is better in 2020 and 2021 than having Lawrence or Fields at QB and not spending a high pick on LT. The window may be bigger but it's likely open for less time... That said, Mr Sinister brings up a good point... not sure he's able to play next year... at least not at the start of the season. If its just a bad dislocation without tearing up the liagments he should be back by next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Sinister Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 Well if that's legit, then yeah, I might explore it. One scenario I thought of was a trade for Deshaun Watson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PartyPosse Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 I feel like we're starting to use the term "generational" way too often now. It used to be once in a blue moon type of prospect. Last year, Tua was considered generational by some. Jeudy was as well as was Chase. The year before, it was Nick Bosa. Before that Barkley and then Fournette. As far as I know, the only generational talents in the last ten years were Luck, Chase Young and Eric Fisher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anselmheifer Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, PartyPosse said: I feel like we're starting to use the term "generational" way too often now. It used to be once in a blue moon type of prospect. Last year, Tua was considered generational by some. Jeudy was as well as was Chase. The year before, it was Nick Bosa. Before that Barkley and then Fournette. As far as I know, the only generational talents in the last ten years were Luck, Chase Young and Eric Fisher. I don't think anybody considered Jeudy, or Nick Bosa or Fournette generational. I think Barkley actually IS a generational talent, and his injury is a real shame. I hate the giants, but I hope Barkley bounces back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDawg Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, PartyPosse said: I feel like we're starting to use the term "generational" way too often now. It used to be once in a blue moon type of prospect. Last year, Tua was considered generational by some. Jeudy was as well as was Chase. The year before, it was Nick Bosa. Before that Barkley and then Fournette. As far as I know, the only generational talents in the last ten years were Luck, Chase Young and Eric Fisher. Generational is an overused word. And, quite frankly, I'd argue it's a really bad word to use for any prospect. Sets them up for failure... The weight of those expectations is heavy. I don't hear MLB, NBA, NHL prospects touted as generational (though I'm less into their prospects), I hear the words "5-tool player", etc. I like that better. Generational is a tough word. The more casual fans (this isn't a dig) will assume that dude is going to be the best player on the planet day 1. It's already started with Chase Young. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anselmheifer Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 1 minute ago, KDawg said: Generational is a tough word. The more casual fans (this isn't a dig) will assume that dude is going to be the best player on the planet day 1. It's already started with Chase Young. I think people use the term generational player for prospects who look like potential HOF type players. And I don't see any issue with that. Sure, it's a lot to live up to, but that shouldn't change the evaluation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDawg Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 Just now, Anselmheifer said: I think people use the term generational player for prospects who look like potential HOF type players. And I don't see any issue with that. Sure, it's a lot to live up to, but that shouldn't change the evaluation. It should. That evaluation hasn't been correct more times than not. It's used too often to describe a player that isn't of that caliber in college. Especially not knowing what he can do in the pros. To each their own, of course. I think Sewell is a "generational" talent. But I'd prefer to use terms such as "really good prospect", "best college prospect since Ogden". Semantics... of course. But just where I'm at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PartyPosse Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 12 minutes ago, KDawg said: Generational is an overused word. And, quite frankly, I'd argue it's a really bad word to use for any prospect. Sets them up for failure... The weight of those expectations is heavy. I don't hear MLB, NBA, NHL prospects touted as generational (though I'm less into their prospects), I hear the words "5-tool player", etc. I like that better. Generational is a tough word. The more casual fans (this isn't a dig) will assume that dude is going to be the best player on the planet day 1. It's already started with Chase Young. I think you do in the other sports, but much less frequently. Zion and Lebron are the only two I can think of from the NBA, NHL had McDavid, Austin Matthews and Sidney Crosby while baseball, the last one I can remember was Brien Taylor and he fizzled out almost immediately. 20 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said: I don't think anybody considered Jeudy, or Nick Bosa or Fournette generational. I think Barkley actually IS a generational talent, and his injury is a real shame. I hate the giants, but I hope Barkley bounces back I heard people talk about Fournette like he was a once in a blue moon prospect. Isn't that basically why he sat out his final year in prep for the draft? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDawg Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 1 minute ago, PartyPosse said: I think you do in the other sports, but much less frequently. Zion and Lebron are the only two I can think of from the NBA, NHL had McDavid, Austin Matthews and Sidney Crosby while baseball, the last one I can remember was Brien Taylor and he fizzled out almost immediately. Billy Beane... Dude was a player. But psychologically he just couldn't do it. And that was what? 1985? No Twitter or internet to over play the hype. I think too often evaluators/talking heads don't realize the hype they make for these guys. And these guys hear it. Make no mistake. Some guys get too big of a head and don't put in the time. Some act like they are king **** but inside are scared to death. Some handle it very well. With the amount of high round busts and low round success stories, I firmly believe part of that is the psychological aspect and the expectations. Of course, there's always big time prospects who are phenomenal and just get it done regardless. And there are guys with low expectations that perform even lower. But I wouldn't be surprised to find out a correlation between bust rate and expectations and hit rate and expectations. I'd be really interested in that study. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malapropismic Depository Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 No to Dak. There's going to be better options than that, at FA QB in 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsinparadise Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Going Commando Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 Top NBA prospects get a lot of hype. Their drafts are usually only a handful of players deep in real quality and the top prospects get identified as 15 and 16 year old kids a lot of the time. So they build up quite a bit of hype by the time they start their freshman years in school. Anthony Davis and Andrew Wiggins and Harrison B arnes and Andre Drummond and Ben Simmons and Lula Doncic and DeAndre Ayton were all super hyped up prospects. Some hits and misses. Those guys are still growing so much when they first get identified that its hard to tell what they'll become. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PartyPosse Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 9 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said: Top NBA prospects get a lot of hype. Their drafts are usually only a handful of players deep in real quality and the top prospects get identified as 15 and 16 year old kids a lot of the time. So they build up quite a bit of hype by the time they start their freshman years in school. Anthony Davis and Andrew Wiggins and Harrison B arnes and Andre Drummond and Ben Simmons and Lula Doncic and DeAndre Ayton were all super hyped up prospects. Some hits and misses. Those guys are still growing so much when they first get identified that its hard to tell what they'll become. I think that's the biggest problem with NBA in a nutshell and why I don't watch it. It's a star-driven league, not team driven. The media and the league loves to hype up players more than jerseys. It's why teams just go out and sign big name free agents and the draft has the biggest bust-ratio by far. You can see a team have 5 first round picks in one year and not have a player among them. I can't stand it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redskinss Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 (edited) https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/10/17/trevor-lawrence-throws-for-391-yards-5-tds-in-first-half/ Trevor Lawrence throws for 391 yards, 5 TDs in first half Oh, please, please, please, and pretty please with cherries on top. I swear to you lord ill never ask for anything else again. Edited October 17, 2020 by redskinss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philibusters Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Mr. Sinister said: Well if that's legit, then yeah, I might explore it. One scenario I thought of was a trade for Deshaun Watson I cannot see Houston trading Deshaun Watson. They already have their QB to build around. When you have that, you don't give it up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malapropismic Depository Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, philibusters said: I cannot see Houston trading Deshaun Watson. They already have their QB to build around. When you have that, you don't give it up. I thought I read an article from earlier in the year that Watson would be a FA this offseason. But since it was from early in the year, maybe he extended with Houston, and I didn't hear about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philibusters Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 1 minute ago, Malapropismic Depository said: I thought I read an article from earlier in the year that Watson would be a FA this offseason. But since it was from early in the year, maybe he extended with Houston, and I didn't hear about it. He signed a four year extension. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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