BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic

[Califan007 The Constipated]

 

 

[Ball Security]

9 hours ago, China said:

Model predicts 100,000 more COVID deaths unless U.S. changes its ways

 

The U.S. is projected to see nearly 100,000 more COVID-19 deaths between now and December 1, according to the nation's most closely watched forecasting model. But health experts say that toll could be cut in half if nearly everyone wore a mask in public spaces.

 

In other words, what the coronavirus has in store this fall depends on human behavior.

 

"Behavior is really going to determine if, when and how sustainably the current wave subsides," said Lauren Ancel Meyers, director of the University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium. "We cannot stop Delta in its tracks, but we can change our behavior overnight."

 

Click on the link for the full article

 

Good luck with that.

 

 

100k is a nice round number, but I’d guess that the additional deaths between now and December 1 will be 140-150k.  And, no, mask wearing patterns won’t change in any meaningful way between now and then.  Vaccination rates will tick up some, but not enough.

 

I look at it like this, the daily average for deaths increased 20%+ in a week.  We are now over 1200 a day.  We have 95 days to Dec 1.  Cases are still increasing.  Deaths will follow.  We’re getting better at treating it, but running out of hospital beds.  To me, 100k additional deaths over the next 3 months will be a better outcome than what is likely.

[TradeTheBeal!]

[Captain Wiggles]

Kids can't be replaced? 🤔

 

[PeterMP]

10 hours ago, MrSilverMaC said:

That seems like a very conservative model to me.
 

December 1st is about 100 days away and given that the average has been over 1k a day for at least the last two weeks, I believe, hitting at least 100k is basically guaranteed.

 

Things are likely to fall in several states.   (I'd be more sure of that if I knew the state of schools in every state, e.g. how many are back vs. how many are not back yet)

 

But unless behavior gets worse in terms of allowing the virus to spread, MS, FL, LA, AL, and AR all have likely reached peaks for cases and are probably going to see declining cases in the next few weeks.  And a whole host of other states are probably a week or 2 behind.  Now deaths tend to trail cases by a week or two so I'm not sure we've seen peak deaths.  I don't think we are likely to get to 3K deaths in the near future is unless there is future wide spread spreading of the virus in schools that isn't happening now (though the way FL is reporting numbers will affect that).

 

And unless we see a new variant or a rapid decline in the effectiveness of the vaccine with no boosters, deaths should trail off from there (though not go to 0).  Given current behavior, I think 100K is a pretty good estimate.  The school situation might make them wrong by quite a bit.

[Ball Security]

1 hour ago, PeterMP said:

 

Things are likely to fall in several states.   (I'd be more sure of that if I knew the state of schools in every state, e.g. how many are back vs. how many are not back yet)

 

But unless behavior gets worse in terms of allowing the virus to spread, MS, FL, LA, AL, and AR all have likely reached peaks for cases and are probably going to see declining cases in the next few weeks.  And a whole host of other states are probably a week or 2 behind.  Now deaths tend to trail cases by a week or two so I'm not sure we've seen peak deaths.  I don't think we are likely to get to 3K deaths in the near future is unless there is future wide spread spreading of the virus in schools that isn't happening now (though the way FL is reporting numbers will affect that).

 

And unless we see a new variant or a rapid decline in the effectiveness of the vaccine with no boosters, deaths should trail off from there (though not go to 0).  Given current behavior, I think 100K is a pretty good estimate.  The school situation might make them wrong by quite a bit.

I don’t know.  In 2020, cases declined in late August and September before ramping back up in October leading into the winter surge as more and more activities moved inside.  I could see the leading states dip for a month or so and go back up.  And even though the states you’ve mentioned have seen declines recently, the overall cases nationally are still on the rise.  
 

Two weeks ago, the seven day average for deaths was 650.  It’s now 1255.  Just about doubled in that time.  3000/day?  Maybe not, but we could likely be in a period of 1500-2000 into September.  

Yesterday, there were 1400+ non-FL deaths reported.
 

Again, I would take 100k deaths as a best case scenario.  I hope to be proven wrong.

[tshile]

Well, the areas on the rise have higher vaccination rates. So, id think deaths trailing off still makes sense. 
 

and December 1st is too early for the thanksgiving rise. 
 

I would also think areas where hospitals are not overrun will have less deaths just because exhausted staff, lack of rooms/equipment (I would think) leads to higher deaths. The rising states should be better off. 
 

schools are child deaths are the wildcard cause they can’t be vaccinated and are indoors together…

 

[PeterMP]

5 minutes ago, tshile said:

Well, the areas on the rise have higher vaccination rates. So, id think deaths trailing off still makes sense. 
 

and December 1st is too early for the thanksgiving rise. 
 

I would also think areas where hospitals are not overrun will have less deaths just because exhausted staff, lack of rooms/equipment (I would think) leads to higher deaths. The rising states should be better off. 
 

schools are child deaths are the wildcard cause they can’t be vaccinated and are indoors together…

 

 

Schools as spreaders even if child deaths are low could be key.

 

And certainly if there is a lot more in door dining in crowded places and things like that as the colder weather hits that will change things (that would be behavior getting worse in terms of doing things to spread the virus; if people that haven't been eating in restaurants in door start eating in restaurants inside that's not good).

 

But I can see where they got 100K from.  

[Ball Security]

The model says that the peak will rise to close to 1400 deaths by mid-September, then slowly decrease.  We’re at 1266 on 8/27.  We were 955 on 8/20.  Unless they consider mid September as 9/2-9/29, we’re going to go past 1400 way earlier than they modeled.  
 

I followed what came out of UoW closely at the beginning of the pandemic.  Their models tended to underestimate results then.  I haven’t really followed them since last fall. 
 

We’ll track it, but I’m on record that 98k deaths between yesterday when that story came out and 12/1 will be eclipsed fairly easily.

[PeterMP]

4 hours ago, Ball Security said:

The model says that the peak will rise to close to 1400 deaths by mid-September, then slowly decrease.  We’re at 1266 on 8/27.  We were 955 on 8/20.  Unless they consider mid September as 9/2-9/29, we’re going to go past 1400 way earlier than they modeled.  
 

I followed what came out of UoW closely at the beginning of the pandemic.  Their models tended to underestimate results then.  I haven’t really followed them since last fall. 
 

We’ll track it, but I’m on record that 98k deaths between yesterday when that story came out and 12/1 will be eclipsed fairly easily.

 

You are probably right.  But I also see where they got 100K.  I live in NJ.  If you just fit the curve, we should probably peak for cases in a week or 2 (with a petty low peak).

 

But many schools haven't started here yet.  And while we have a mask mandate, we all know that there will probably be low compliance/enforcement in areas that are vaccine hesitant, especially.

 

Looking and modeling based on the current data doesn't take into account that many schools haven't started.   So we'll probably blow by what you'd expect in NJ based on current situations.  You might even see a state like this appear to level off and then go to a new high over the next 4 or 5 weeks.  And even in places where they appear to have started to come down, depending on the situations and timing of schools starting they might go up to a new high.

 

But based on what we were doing in many states, many states should be reaching a peak soon.  Practically, with schools starting etc., they might be very wrong.  But it isn't so much that the model is wrong vs. that things didn't stay the same (because schools started, etc.)

 

The original Covid models were really wrong because of bad data.  The data out of Wuhan was the virus was very deadly but didn't spread too easily.  They were missing many many cases because they people were asymptomatic or had very minor symptoms.  At some level, those things actually canceled out.  But for sub-groups (the elderly), it was very deadly so when it got into places like nursing homes the deaths really piled up.

 

Making a model based on bad data gives a bad result.  That isn't the issue here.  The data is pretty good now.  The issue is that the model is based on essentially if nothing changes other than people getting sick.  And that doesn't take into account things like schools starting.

[CousinsCowgirl84]

I thought the delta was supposed to peak rather quickly. Maybe that’s why they are forecasting lower numbers.

[Larry]

It wouldn't break my heart if we're at a peak, and future numbers go down on their own. (Although I would consider it a downside, if that scenario resulted in large numbers of people not learning, and the behavior continuing.)

 

But I keep remembering a year ago, and the way the numbers exploded in November, and all the pundits announcing that Thanksgiving and Christmas, combined with people staying indoors, being the causes. 
 

I could see the current numbers tripling, too. 

[visionary]

 

[TradeTheBeal!]

Remember Milo?  He’s doing great these days!

 

 

[Llevron]

Can confirm the infertility rumors is a bunch of bull**** 

[The 12th Commandment]

Welp, who would have thought that acting as your own physician turns out to be even worse than acting as your own attorney.

[Ball Security]

4 minutes ago, Llevron said:

Can confirm the infertility rumors is a bunch of bull**** 

Congrats?!?

[Chew]

9 hours ago, visionary said:

 

 

There's enough of these people dead now to where social media can make a collage.

 

 

Edited August 29, 2021 by Chew

[The Evil Genius]

I'm sensing a theme chew... but I just can't put my angry white finger on it. 

[MrSilverMaC]

23 hours ago, PeterMP said:

 

Things are likely to fall in several states.   (I'd be more sure of that if I knew the state of schools in every state, e.g. how many are back vs. how many are not back yet)

 

But unless behavior gets worse in terms of allowing the virus to spread, MS, FL, LA, AL, and AR all have likely reached peaks for cases and are probably going to see declining cases in the next few weeks.  And a whole host of other states are probably a week or 2 behind.  Now deaths tend to trail cases by a week or two so I'm not sure we've seen peak deaths.  I don't think we are likely to get to 3K deaths in the near future is unless there is future wide spread spreading of the virus in schools that isn't happening now (though the way FL is reporting numbers will affect that).

 

And unless we see a new variant or a rapid decline in the effectiveness of the vaccine with no boosters, deaths should trail off from there (though not go to 0).  Given current behavior, I think 100K is a pretty good estimate.  The school situation might make them wrong by quite a bit.

Maybe you’re right. It’s completely possible that working in phoenix skews my perception of the situation. I really hope so.

 

But what I’m seeing is that Texas hasn’t peaked yet. I’m not sure the south in general has. Arizona hasn’t even entered the conversation for this spike even though the dip**** running the state has handcuffed the cities and won’t let them institute mask mandates, won’t mandate it himself, and has done the same to our schools in imitation of Florida and Texas. I don’t know about California’s large cities, but their rural areas are feeling it.
 

We have labor day next Monday which I’m sure will result in huge gatherings, and I promise all the “christians” will be rarin’ to have their Halloween parties and send their kids trick or treating.

 

To me, 100k seems like wishful thinking. As horrible as that sounds.

[The Evil Genius]

Can't speak for the rest of California, but the SF Bay Area I live in has been doing good.

 

https://www.sfchronicle.com/health/article/The-Bay-Area-s-delta-surge-won-t-end-like-16417600.php

 

Quote

As hospitalizations and deaths continue to rise in many regions of California, health experts remain cautiously optimistic that the worst of the summer surge may be over in the Bay Area.

 

The seven-day average of new daily cases in the nine-county region has steadied at around 24 per 100,000 residents since the beginning of August, after increasing sixfold in the previous month — from 3 new cases per 100,000 on July 1 to 18 new cases per 100,000 by July 31.

Even though more than 1,000 people have been hospitalized with COVID-19 across the nine-county region over the past week, with 303 patients in intensive care unit beds as of Friday, the number of patients has been slowly falling in recent days.

“We continue to be the poster children for how to do a pandemic in the United States,” said Dr. Robert Wachter, chief of the Department of Medicine at UCSF. “The vaccine rates are by a fair amount the highest in the country among major metropolitan areas. There seems to be relatively little pushback on masking. And yet the turnaround is slower than we would have expected in the prior surges.”

 

Experts say the return of many mitigation requirements that had been lifted with California’s June 15 reopening, paired with the cautious behavior of residents in the face of the highly contagious delta variant, is slowing the spread of the virus in the Bay Area. A Chronicle analysis shows the rate of new cases leveling off in San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties, which will lead to a dip in the number of people in hospitals in the coming weeks. Other Bay Area counties may also be leveling off, but there is no clear trend.

 

“There’s always been a lag between what we do and the effects of what we’re doing,” said Anne Liu, an infectious disease doctor at Stanford University. “I do think that we are starting to see some of the effects of people taking precautions again. Case counts are coming down or starting to plateau in some areas. Hopefully, we will see that reflected in hospitalizations soon.”

 

The return of an indoor mask mandate and the rollout of vaccination requirements for a variety of businesses, in particular, are making an impact in keeping cases at manageable levels — unlike in other parts of the United States such as Mississippi, Florida and Louisiana, where weekly new cases have reached the 100s per 100,000 and hospitals are at capacity.

 

Edited August 29, 2021 by The Evil Genius

[Larry]

10 minutes ago, Chew said:

 

There's enough of these people dead now to where social media can make a collage.

 

 

I'd always assumed that most of the people pushing this death cult actually knew better, themselves. And they were just convincing their followers to kill themselves. 

[China]

14 Portable Morgues Heading To Central Florida Hospitals Amid ‘Unprecedented Deaths’

 

Fourteen portable morgues are being sent to central Florida hospitals amid what one official called “unprecedented deaths” during the state’s record COVID-19 crisis.

 

Each refrigerated morgue holds 12 bodies, Lynne Drawdy, executive director of the Central Florida Disaster Medial Coalition, who ordered the units, told the Orlando Sentinel.

 

“The number of deaths right now is unprecedented,” Drawdy told the newspaper. “What we’re hearing from the hospitals is that the death count right now is higher than it has ever been.”

 

AdventHealth, which is getting three of the portable morgues, said in a statement to WESH Channel 2 that the system is also renting refrigerated units at 10 sites in Orange, Osceola, Polk, Seminole and Volusia counties, noting that they are also being filled.

 

The AdventHealth statement said bodies are backing up because funeral homes and crematoriums are also overwhelmed.

 

Click on the link for the full article

[Cooked Crack]

 

These little guys need to learn all the top right wing guys are vaccinated while telling their audience not to get vaccinated.

[Ball Security]

2 minutes ago, Cooked Crack said:

 

These little guys need to learn all the top right wing guys are vaccinated while telling their audience not to get vaccinated.

Too bad dead man can’t see me correct him for using the possessive form of Nazi in his tweet instead of the plural form.