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The State of the Economy Thread - “Falling inflation, rising growth give U.S. the world’s best recovery”


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Once upon a time a guy chose to go to expensive restaurant, and then publicly complained that they charged him expensive prices.

 

The End.

 

~Boo hoo

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Relevant to this thread ... just received a promotional email from Fidelity that had a commentary on current perceptions of the economy. Of course their goal is to hire them as financial advisors but the summary data was interesting.

 

 

A recent poll concerning the state of the US economy revealed that most Americans have a rather downcast view of how things are going. According to the Guardian/Harris poll,1 which surveyed more than 2,000 adults over 2 days in May 2024, significant numbers of Americans believe that:2

  • The US is currently experiencing a recession.
  • The stock market is suffering.
  • Inflation is increasing.
  • Unemployment is at a 50-year high.

"When I look at the results of the poll, I find them surprising," says Naveen Malwal, institutional portfolio manager with Strategic Advisers, LLC. "I closely follow economic data and markets, and I'm not seeing many signs of weakness. But I can also appreciate where investors are coming from. Looking at the news, it's easy to hold on to some of the negative stories that we've seen."

 

In fact, the data tells another story:

  • While the criteria for determining when a recession occurs is complex, there is no indication that one has arrived. The gross domestic product of the US has actually grown over the last 2 quarters: by 3.3% in Q4 2023 and 1.6% in Q1 2024.2
  • Stocks are doing well. The S&P 500® Index rose by 24% in 2023 and has continued on its upward trajectory in 2024, rising more than 10% in Q1 2024.2
  • Though still elevated from its pre-pandemic levels, the rate of inflation most recently dropped to 3.4% in April, down significantly from its peak of 9.1% in June 2022.2 Furthermore, wages have generally been rising faster than inflation since February 2023, which in theory should lessen the impact of rising costs on consumers.3
  • The unemployment rate is actually near a 50-year low. In May 2024, it rose slightly to 4%, which is well below the average reading of 5.7% since 1950.4

 

https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/wealth-management-insights/how-is-the-us-economy-doing?

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Fidelity’s work there showing what people think vs what is reality is a prime example of the fact that the vast majority of people are stupid. 
 

they might be good at what they do for work. They might be paid well and have lots of stuff. Maybe they’re totally financially secure. 
 

people mistake success for intelligence. Most people in this country are dumb as a ****ing rock, even if they’ve found a way to be more successful (than the other dumb as ****ing rocks people out there.)

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On 6/20/2024 at 10:15 AM, Bang said:

$3 a dozen fresh from the small farm within walking distance of my house.

 

~Bang

 

No way, dude. Maria is telling me bread is $13/loaf. Eggs gotta be $15-18/doz...Spoiler due to language

 

Spoiler

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Oh, I'd like to see us shrink our deficit, myself. It's one of the reason I vote the straight Dem ticket. 

 

Not necessarily shrink it to zero.  But I'd like if the total debt as a percentage of GDP went down. Start "growing our way out of debt."

 

And no, I have no clue if that's possible. 

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US economy adds 206K jobs in June

 

The U.S. economy added 206,000 jobs in June and the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.1 percent, according to Labor Department data released Friday. 

 

The latest jobs numbers are are largely in line with expectations that the economy would add 190,000 jobs and maintain a jobless rate of 4 percent. 

 

The report follows blockbuster May numbers in which saw 272,000 jobs were created, but the unemployment rate’s longest sub-4 percent streak since the 1960s came to an end, as it ticked up slightly from 3.9 to 4 percent.

 

The Labor Department on Friday revised May’s job gain down to 218,000 and April’s job gain down to 108,000, meaning the economy added 111,000 fewer jobs than first reported.

 

“The downward revisions to the previous two months is consistent with an economic slowdown,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial.

 

“We should expect more rhetoric out of the Fed about labor market conditions and the importance of keeping policy appropriate for their dual mandate,” he added.

 

Click on the link for the full article

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Quote

The head of America’s biggest retail bank has a warning for its 86 million customers: Prepare to pay for your bank accounts.

 

Lake said Chase is planning to pass on the costs of higher regulation and charge customers for a number of now-free services, including checking accounts and wealth-management tools, if the rules become law in their current form. She expects her peers in the industry will follow suit.

 

“The changes will be broad, sweeping and significant,” Lake said. “The people who will be most impacted are the ones who can least afford to be, and access to credit will be harder to get.” 

 

This isn’t the first time banks have said they would pass on higher costs to consumers when regulators have attempted to cap their fees. In 2010, after the post-financial crisis overhaul of bank regulations, lenders warned that they would levy fees on debit cards because of a cap on some card charges—but few ended up doing so because consumers threatened to move their business. Some consumer advocates say this time is no different. 

JPMorgan Warns Customers: Prepare to Pay for Checking Accounts

 

Kick rocks. The moment someone tries to make me pay for checking I'm moving my money.

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Posted (edited)
23 hours ago, Cooked Crack said:

JPMorgan Warns Customers: Prepare to Pay for Checking Accounts

 

Kick rocks. The moment someone tries to make me pay for checking I'm moving my money.



Marianne Lake is CEO of Consumer and Community Banking at JP Morgan and is quoted in the article. In her official headshot shown in the article she is wearing a necklace that Cleopatra would think too ostentatious. in 2022 her total comp was about $17 million.  I guess that’s not enough.

 

The source of this pain is new regulation that would limit the degree of gouging that these banks charge for overdraft and late fees.

 

 

Edited by Corcaigh
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On 7/2/2024 at 1:57 PM, PeterMP said:

https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/02/economy/global-debt-crisis/index.html

 

The world is sitting on a $91 trillion problem. ‘Hard choices’ are coming.

 

We might be ok as the dollar is the reserve currency and we pay our debts in dollars.  But eventually this is going to be an issue for many countries.

 

If it's not an easy for jus us (Japan has a lot of debt and China has a bunch at the local level for useless infrastructure) I'm optimistic.

 

It gives a chance for larger economies to look at smaller ones and potentially work out something for everyone. 

 

I really hate the idea if going to war with China because they won't help us with anything regarding our deficits if they at war with us.  This is more short term then medium, that article is in denial.

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