2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[DWinzit]

9 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

I've had Jonathan Taylor available at 66 in almost all of the PFF simulated mocks I've done the past few days. The mock drafts that the PFF analysts themselves have published are terrible.  They don't demonstrate a very strong understanding of team building principles and methodology and they've gone whole hog on this nutty ass theory of position value that deems receivers and corners significantly more valuable than linemen of all kinds.  It also determines running backs and traditional stack linebackers to have essentially no value.  It's quite radical and doesn't hold up on comparison against either market value (no account for scarcity) or intrinsic value (linemen have significant impact on the outcome of almost every snap whereas corners and receivers certainly do not).  So I'm hesitant to run away with any conclusions based on their mock draft simulator because I think their awful theory of position value and the absurd weight that they place upon it, to the point of having teams avoid drafting BPA to a very unrealistic degree, has biased the results of that thing.

 

But I really want to run away with the conclusion that Taylor will be there at 66.  As crowded as our running back room is right now, with so many unknowns and so much untapped talent, if Taylor is available at 66, I think you have to draft him and let the depth chart sort itself out via competition.  There would probably be significant opportunity cost paid because I think either Guice or Love or both would be burned up by drafting another running back.  But there is more opportunity cost paid if we let a guy who goes on to become an All Pro RB slip past us because we were committed to two guys who had injury issues and didn't pan out.

 

In most of my simulated mocks, I've been getting offensive weapons with those third and fourth round picks.  Usually some combination of receivers and a tight end, but some of them have drafted one of the big four running backs at 66.  One of my favorite scenario has been getting Taylor at 66, Tyler Johnson at 108, and Harrison Bryant at 142, but there have been a lot of combinations of players that I liked.  Classes where we get one or more of Biadasz, Hunt, or Dotson.  Classes where we get Jordyn Brooks or Dantzler or one of the good safeties.  In the spirit of BPA, I've even picked Okwara or Jordan Elliot.  But I like a class where we follow up a Chase Young pick with adding several good weapons.  That's the most high upside scenario for us IMO.  Build what could become a legendary defensive line, and add the talent to spread the field out for a strong armed young QB who is built to drop back and throw 40 times a game.

Each year there are so many more analysts and with them come differing opinions and methodologies. It seemed years ago most mocks were fairly close in comparison and would within reason be close to the actual draft. There are some CRAZY mocks out there!

 

When it comes to Taylor, I think he was too highly rated early and he is leveling to where he belongs in the mid to late 2nd with CEH and Dobbins moving up. I find these two more appealing and have had them ranked higher all along.

 

One thing for sure as you state, there will still be serious offensive weapons in the 3rd and 4th rounds.

 

Staying with RB's, if the Redskins do not add a RB as we move to those 7th round, what RB would guys be looking at?

[volsmet]

15 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Usually this stuff leaks though especially from the team trying to unload the player. They want to let the world know they got multiple suitors to drive up a bidding war.

 

So for me to buy Tampa interest, I would have to hear from some reporter via Tampa or DC that they are really interested. As far as I recall that hasn’t happened at least not yet.  
 

The 3 teams that we keep hearing with real interest are the Browns, Jets, Vikings.  
 

Right now, if this bleeds into the draft my number one hope is the Browns lose out on one of the top 4 tackles and lose out on Ezra Cleveland in the 2nd round.  If that happens they might get desperate.

 

 

Ezra will go in the 20s, imo.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, volsmet said:

 

O.J. HOWARDTE, TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

The Tampa Bay Times' Rick Stroud reports the Buccaneers are happy to have O.J. Howard "line up with [Ron Gronkowski] in two-tight end formations" unless they're "blown away" with an offer.

"If someone blows them away, yeah, they'll consider trading [Howard]," Stroud elaborated on the most recent Sports Day Tampa Bay podcast. "But I think it would have to be at least a second-round pick. And even then I'm skeptical." Most assumed Howard was on the move the moment Gronk came out of retirement but it sounds as if the Bucs are open to making it work between the two and 28-year-old Cameron Brate, the latter who recently restructured his deal to ensure his return. Tampa Bay already leaned on the sixth-highest rate (28%) of 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends) in 2019, but given this recent roster shake-up, fantasy players should expect that number to increase this upcoming year.

RELATED: 

• Rob Gronkowski
• , Cameron Brate

SOURCE: Rick Stroud on Twitter

Apr 22, 2020, 6:56 AM ET

•  

 

'

Actually it makes some sense, it old be like the Hernandez-Gronk seasons for the Pats but with a third TE, too.  Plus Arians seems to like to use Howard a lot as a blocker.  13 sets?  We were talking Dobbins last night, maybe Tampa in on a RB?  

[KDawg]

@stevemcqueen1

 

Taylor at 66 is intriguing. But honestly, for THIS team, a choice between Taylor and CEH... I take CEH. He fits the McCaffrey “mold” better than Taylor. Granted we have Love for that as well, but we’re not sure how he is health wise, and he’s more of a home run hitter than CEH where CEH is more of an overall smart player and is better in protection.

 

Taylor’s ball security and hands make him a guy that would thrive in a downhill scheme similar to the Titans style, but not so much in Kansas City’s. So it’s a bit of a tug of war as to when backs are going to go and when they won’t.

 

Having said that, though. Taylor could thrive in the Skins system, too. Just in a different way than McCaffrey did in Carolina. They’d need to use him as a downhill runner, similar to the way we’ve seen Guice used and pair him with Love. 
 

Id like both CEH and Taylor at 66 if they’re there. But I think the Skins go a different route. Though I think either one is a very real BPA candidate at that spot. 

14 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

'

Actually it makes some sense, it old be like the Hernandez-Gronk seasons for the Pats but with a third TE, too.  Plus Arians seems to like to use Howard a lot as a blocker.  13 sets?  We were talking Dobbins last night, maybe Tampa in on a RB?  

Id say without a doubt. I think CEH goes to them in the second.

[Skinsinparadise]

5 minutes ago, volsmet said:

Ezra will go in the 20s, imo.

 

Yeah I've seen him in the 1st in some mocks. Personally, he's my favorite 2nd tier OT albeit I haven't watched J. Jones or Jackson.   Supposedly the Browns love him.  Some rumors that they'd like to trade down accumulate picks and still get Cleveland.  I presume if the Browns and Jets land a LT the market for Trent really diminishes.

 

I get the speculation of teams that should be interested.  But I've become skeptical of that because there is a difference between the media-fans saying such and such team should want Trent versus them actually wanting him and pursuing him for real.  So I am buying into Cleveland, Jets, Vikings because there are reports they've inquired. 

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Yeah I've seen him in the 1st in some mocks. Personally, he's my favorite 2nd tier OT albeit I haven't watched J. Jones or Jackson.   Supposedly the Browns love him.  Some rumors that they'd like to trade down accumulate picks and still get Cleveland.  I presume if the Browns and Jets land a LT the market for Trent really diminishes.

 

I get the speculation of teams that should be interested.  But I've become skeptical of that because there is a difference between the media-fans saying such and such team should want Trent versus them actually wanting him and pursuing him for real.  So I am buying into Cleveland, Jets, Vikings because there are reports they've inquired. 

I love Jones and Jackson. Cleveland falls behind Niang for me. 
 

Thomas

Wirfs

Wills

Jackson

Jones

Niang

Becton

 

But Becton would naturally be taken higher than the three directly above him because his ceiling is OT1 potential. Problem is that his floor is OT50 because he could find himself eating himself out of the league or into an all-pro. A lot of the Becton stuff would be based on interviews and reference checks if I were a GM. 
 

If he checks out, I have him 4. If he doesn’t? 8.

[Skinsinparadise]

6 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

Id say without a doubt. I think CEH goes to them in the second.

 

I've been a big CEH guy for a long time relatively speaking during this current draft process.  You continually mentioning him is making me want him again.  😀   I did a bunch a posts on him months back.  But after FA and them signing 2 RBs, I lost some interest because of need.  But thinking about it some more of late, the dude is such a dynamic weapon that heck why not?  He helps you with both the running and passing game.  He's also a good pass blocker.  Stud. 

[DWinzit]

18 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

The 3 teams that we keep hearing with real interest are the Browns, Jets, Vikings.  
 

Right now, if this bleeds into the draft my number one hope is the Browns lose out on one of the top 4 tackles and lose out on Ezra Cleveland in the 2nd round.  If that happens they might get desperate.

The Browns and Vikes have been talked about a lot in this thread...I like your thoughts on Cleveland but I would love to have the TW trade complete going into the draft. I know it could be possible we get better compensation if we wait but we also could lose out on any chance. WE have already pissed away much of his value. If I am a team the only way I'd look at TW is to steal him from us for like a 6th or 7th.

 

The Jets are loaded at TE  - Griffen, Herndon, Brown and 4th on the depth chart........Trevon Wesco!

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, KDawg said:

I love Jones and Jackson. Cleveland falls behind Niang for me. 
 

 

I noticed PFF loves Jones.  I am a big Niang guy, I like Cleveland just a hair over him because of consistency and maybe durability. 

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I noticed PFF loves Jones.  I am a big Niang guy, I like Cleveland just a hair over him because of consistency and maybe durability. 

I think you’re going to wind up right RE: Niang’s health. And in my mock I have Cleveland going before Niang because of it, even though I like Niang more. 
 

Im not sure I’m going to get this mock finished by draft time. Going to try to get through round 2 and 3 at least. 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, DWinzit said:

The Browns and Vikes have been talked about a lot in this thread...I like your thoughts on Cleveland but I would love to have the TW trade complete going into the draft. I know it could be possible we get better compensation if we wait but we also could lose out on any chance. WE have already pissed away much of his value. If I am a team the only way I'd look at TW is to steal him from us for like a 6th or 7th.

 

The Jets are loaded at TE  - Griffen, Herndon, Brown and 4th on the depth chart........Trevon Wesco!

 

I've gone from being a mega optimist to a Debbie Downer on Trent trade value. 😀  I got no doubt they could have gotten great value for him last season.    But there are so many fish in the sea at OT this draft.  Yeah none as good as Trent but they are younger, healthier and much cheaper.  And you add that Trent has gone from a bargain with the 2 years left on his contract to expensive with the 1 year left and his sky high contract demands for an extension -- that I do buy what many have said that Trent's value isn't the 2019 version.

 

We've heard for months about how many teams SHOULD be interested and why.  But the dude has been on the market for over 2 months now.  So these teams who should be interested have had plenty of time to show real interest that goes beyond fan-media speculations.  And on that front not too many teams have made the cut.  Unless I am missing something, its just those three teams with some in the NY media saying the Jets are now out.  I am hoping there is a new mystery team or two into this, will see. 

[crabbypatty]

12 minutes ago, KDawg said:

@stevemcqueen1

 

Taylor at 66 is intriguing. But honestly, for THIS team, a choice between Taylor and CEH... I take CEH. He fits the McCaffrey “mold” better than CEH. Granted we have Love for that as well, but we’re not sure how he is health wise, and he’s more of a home run hitter than CEH where CEH is more of an overall smart player and is better in protection.

 

Taylor’s ball security and hands make him a guy that would thrive in a downhill scheme similar to the Titans style, but not so much in Kansas City’s. So it’s a bit of a tug of war as to when backs are going to go and when they won’t.

 

Having said that, though. Taylor could thrive in the Skins system, too. Just in a different way than McCaffrey did in Carolina. They’d need to use him as a downhill runner, similar to the way we’ve seen Guice used and pair him with Love. 
 

Id like both CEH and Taylor at 66 if they’re there. But I think the Skins go a different route. Though I think either one is a very real BPA candidate at that spot. 

Id say without a doubt. I think CEH goes to them in the second.

It's possible that CEH could fall to the top of the 3rd..not likely but possible. I really like the guy even though we have a bunch of unproven depth at the position. He looks like a glider to me, really a big fan of his.

 

[Skin'emAlive]

Arians doesn’t use TE’s, declined to use Howard at all last year, put him on the market last week, and traded for Gronk yesterday, but we are supposed to believe they will only listen to exorbitant offers? I don’t buy it. A 4th to TB to replace the 4th they lost should be enough. 

[RWJ]

7 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I noticed PFF loves Jones.  I am a big Niang guy, I like Cleveland just a hair over him because of consistency and maybe durability. 

Thoughts on Cameron Clark from Charlotte?  Skins have spoken with him and he might have a future at OT or OG.  A late round pick for him.

[KDawg]

Just now, crabbypatty said:

It's possible that CEH could fall to the top of the 3rd..not likely but possible. I really like the guy even though we have a bunch of unproven depth at the position. He looks like a glider to me, really a big fan of his.

 

As I go through doing my own mock I look at some of the guys I haven’t drafted yet in the mid second and saying “holy ****, there are going to be some real studs available at 66 even if these guys get taken earlier than I think and the guys I drafted already to later.

 

There’s a lot of very real possibilities to fall.

 

Im not sure if it’s either of them are there... but they could be. Along with some receiver types, some tackle types, linebacker types almost definitely will be there, most of the tight ends. Going to be a wild third rounder for us. Unless we’re in love with a guy for sure I’d move back a few slots if the opportunity presents itself.

[Rolo Tomasie]

You guys who are big Niang fans...do you see him as a starter at LT? I watch him and see a RT at best.

[KDawg]

Just now, RWJ said:

Thoughts on Cameron Clark from Charlotte?  Skins have spoken with him and he might have a future at OT or OG.  A late round pick for him.

He’s a guard in my opinion. I took him in the ES draft. I actually have him ranked as one of my top guards in this draft. I’m not sure he’s got a quick enough kick for NFL speed rushers, but his base and strength is fantastic. He’s going to make a team REAL happy. Has a very strong and powerful base and maintains his balance real well.

1 minute ago, Rolo Tomasie said:

You guys who are big Niang fans...do you see him as a starter at LT? I watch him and see a RT at best.

Could be either. His top end is a good LT, I think his floor is good RT (unless injuries get him). I’d take him for sure. I think he’s an upgrade to Moses at the very least.

[RWJ]

3 minutes ago, KDawg said:

He’s a guard in my opinion. I took him in the ES draft. I actually have him ranked as one of my top guards in this draft. I’m not sure he’s got a quick enough kick for NFL speed rushers, but his base and strength is fantastic. He’s going to make a team REAL happy. Has a very strong and powerful base and maintains his balance real well.

It would be nice if he had enough speed to play at RT.  OG seems to be best bet for him though.  Don't know if we use our 5th but it's be nice to use our first 7th on him.  I'm sure he goes before that though.  However, many mock drafts don't even have him listed on their boards from what I've seen, KDawg.

[KDawg]

Just now, RWJ said:

It would be nice if he had enough speed to play at RT.  OG seems to be best bet for him though.  Don't know if we use our 5th but it's be nice to use our first 7th on him.  I'm sure he goes before that though.  However, many mock drafts don't even have him listed on their boards from what I've seen, KDawg.

I think they’re making a very significant mistake. But who knows? They’re pros. I’m a guy who loves football, coaches it, and sees player types I like and don’t like. Clark has it from a strict on field perspective. 

[Skinsinparadise]

2 minutes ago, Skin'emAlive said:

Arians doesn’t use TE’s, declined to use Howard at all last year, put him on the market last week, and traded for Gronk yesterday, but we are supposed to believe they will only listen to exorbitant offers? I don’t buy it. A 4th to TB to replace the 4th they lost should be enough. 

 

It could be.  I read Arians book.  In it, he prides himself on being adaptable on offense to meet whatever hand he's got personnel wise.   And he's known to love to do funky stuff with his offenses.  He's not per se a stuck in the mud type or at least that's not the impression I get about him. 

 

Brate and Howard combined for 70 catches last year. That's not bad and that's with some serious outside weapons.   Regardless, any team needs at least 3 TEs.  So why not keep 3 versus give one away cheap?

 

I agree that they may indeed trade Howard but in their shoes I wouldn't give him away, I'd hold out some for good value. 

[crabbypatty]

9 minutes ago, KDawg said:

As I go through doing my own mock I look at some of the guys I haven’t drafted yet in the mid second and saying “holy ****, there are going to be some real studs available at 66 even if these guys get taken earlier than I think and the guys I drafted already to later.

 

There’s a lot of very real possibilities to fall.

 

Im not sure if it’s either of them are there... but they could be. Along with some receiver types, some tackle types, linebacker types almost definitely will be there, most of the tight ends. Going to be a wild third rounder for us. Unless we’re in love with a guy for sure I’d move back a few slots if the opportunity presents itself.

 

Agree, there will be a ton of WR/RB available, along with a few OL I think.. We should get great value in the 3rd.

CBS new mock has us taking KJ Hamler in the 3rd... woof.

[volsmet]

[Skinsinparadise]

11 minutes ago, Rolo Tomasie said:

You guys who are big Niang fans...do you see him as a starter at LT? I watch him and see a RT at best.

 

I think he's more tailor made for LT versus RT.  

 

His strengths IMO are his length, tall, longish arms, and pass protection.  So those are LT attributes. Protect the blind side. 

 

He needs to improve as a run blocker.  I see more of the stocky, run blocker types at RT and that's not IMO Niang.  

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, RWJ said:

Thoughts on Cameron Clark from Charlotte?  Skins have spoken with him and he might have a future at OT or OG.  A late round pick for him.

 

I haven't watched him.  He has the right size to play LT.  Here's PFF's take.

 

 

IMO we want a run at OT before the Browns pick.  It's also another reason why we want the Giants to take one at #4.

 

 

 

[DWinzit]

43 minutes ago, volsmet said:

Ezra will go in the 20s, imo.

WOW! Now that's a bold statement.

I will admit he one of about 10 players that I have really grown to like over the past month. It seems he has grown on others as well. Many early mocks had as a 3rd rounder. The ones rarely have him getting out of the 2nd.