2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[KDawg]

So, I have a hard time watching Ohio State guys. I try watching Okudah. I try watching Harrison... and all I see is 2 creating opportunities for them. Makes it really difficult for me to assess these guys on their own. Which means I can overrate or underrate anyone around him really easy. 

 

I love Ohio State's strength guy... Mickey Marotti. Guy demands a lot out of the guys and they show up and work hard. So you know you're getting a guy that has pro level strength and conditioning coaching from them. Won't always equate to a top end prospect, but they'll be as ready as they can be physically.

[HTTRDynasty]

I doubt he'd be able to pull an Eli, but man, we'd be in an extremely advantageous position if he somehow slipped past the Bengals.

 

 

 

1 minute ago, KDawg said:

So, I have a hard time watching Ohio State guys. I try watching Okudah. I try watching Harrison... and all I see is 2 creating opportunities for them. Makes it really difficult for me to assess these guys on their own. Which means I can overrate or underrate anyone around him really easy. 

 

I have the same problem.  Have you tried watching the games Chase was out this year?

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

 

 

I have the same problem.  Have you tried watching the games Chase was out this year?

 

Not in any real detail. But no one really seems to pop in those games. Which is... alarming? But maybe I just didn't have the patience and watch enough of them to really do them justice.

[757SeanTaylor21]

6 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

I doubt he'd be able to pull an Eli, but man, we'd be in an extremely advantageous position if he somehow slipped past the Bengals.

That means they draft chase young? Color me green and call me a pickle but that would be horrible. Yeah we can trade down but woopty doo

[HTTRDynasty]

19 minutes ago, 757SeanTaylor21 said:

That means they draft chase young? Color me green and call me a pickle but that would be horrible. Yeah we can trade down but woopty doo

 

Or it means they draft Tua or Herbert instead.

[757SeanTaylor21]

9 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

Or it means they draft Tua or Herbert instead.

Then u take young and be happy you got the bpa at 2

[HTTRDynasty]

Just now, 757SeanTaylor21 said:

Then u take young and be happy you got the bpa at 2

 

There's a big difference in the trade offers we'd get with Burrow on the board at 2 vs. Tua on the board at 2.  Most importantly, I think Detroit is much more likely to trade up for Burrow than they would for Tua, which leaves us still getting Young at 3.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

59 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

 

That's really crazy. I don't want him in the NFCE, unless he's on my team.

 

Most mocks have Ruggs going to the Eagles, and I really don't want that to happen.

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, Anselmheifer said:

I LOVE Okudah. He's going to be a stud and I wish we could grab him. Obviously, Young is a better choice. The non-QB top of this draft is so good. Okudah, Simmons, Jeudy, all belong in the top 5 of any draft, IMHO. There is solid value all the way down to 10 or 12, with multiple very good but not elite OT's, two really good DT's. 

 

I'm thinking back to what you said about trying to get multiple 4th round picks in this draft. I agree with that sentiment. In fact, I'd love to have multiple 3rds and 4ths. If we could turn Trent Williams into three 3rd round picks, imagine all of the talent and depth Kyle Smith could find.  

 

I really love Okudah too.  He's one of my favorite CB prospects to come out in a while.  I've liked several of the first round DBs that have come out in the past couple of classes, but there has always been a caveat.  Loved Byron Murphy, but he was a little slow and you weren't as sure about his man coverages translating to the next level.  Loved DeAndre Baker but he was small.  Loved Denzel Ward but he was very slender.  There's no real caveat with Okudah.  He's just a great prospect and someone is going to get a really nice player with him. 

 

This is an unusually good man cover corner class for guys who are probably going to get picked in the first three rounds.  In addition to Okudah, I also really like Fulton, Henderson, and Diggs.  Loved Jaylon Johnson and the value he will represent as a likely second round pick.  I kind of feel like we're going to miss out on all of the best options if we don't pick a corner at 66.  But I also don't really see a way for us to stockpile mid round picks without trading down from that spot.

[skinny21]

4 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

Most mocks have Ruggs going to the Eagles, and I really don't want that to happen.

Yeah, that would be bad.  
 

Looking at receivers, I’m really curious who might be available at 3.2.  

Obviously Jeudy, Lamb, Ruggs are long gone, likely Shenault and Raegor as well.

My hope is one of Higgins, Mims or Tyler Johnson.  I think those guys are all pretty firm 2nd rounders though, with a good chance the former two go in the 1st (especially Higgins).  
Higgins and Mims have excellent size, catch radius, good speed (maybe even elite for their size), and are physical.  Johnson fits well as I think Rivera will be looking for a polished guy opposite Terry.  
 

Next tier (tier 3?) for me is probably Aiyuk, Edwards, Justin Jefferson, Pittman Jr., Hamler?
Then Van Jefferson, People-Jones, Jennings, Hightower?

 

Feel like I’m missing a couple.  Comes a point in there where I’m looking much harder at other positions for ‘better’ value...

[Anselmheifer]

1 hour ago, Fresh8686 said:

@Anselmheifer

 

How do you feel about Malik's mental processing? In the games I watched it seemed he'd guess on things, appear hesitant, and I didn't like that he was usually 2nd or 3rd man in on a tackle. I also get the impression that he doesn't consistently play fast with his eyes up. Some draft people said that got better as the season went on, but he still made hasty choices in the Clemson game imo. 

 

I honestly don't feel qualified to answer this question. I've found Mcqueen to be a good judge of linebacker instincts over the years. Maybe he can weigh in?

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

 

51 minutes ago, KDawg said:

So, I have a hard time watching Ohio State guys. I try watching Okudah. I try watching Harrison... and all I see is 2 creating opportunities for them. Makes it really difficult for me to assess these guys on their own. Which means I can overrate or underrate anyone around him really easy.

 

That Alabama offense is stacked with 2020 1st rounders and probably some more 2021 1st rounders.  Supreme talent on the field makes it easier for everyone around them.  Who benefits the most and who the least?  I don't know.

 

For some examples.

- 2006, Reggie Bush (drafted 2nd) and Matt Leinart (drafted 10th).  They both made things easier for each other in college, but it was fairly clear that Leinart benefited the most. 

- 2009 you had Matt Stafford (drafted 1st) and Knowshon Moreno (drafted 12th), I didn't know who benefited more, so I kind of wanted to stay away from both (as a neutral observer).

- 2010 you had Sam Bradford, Trent Williams, and Jermaine Gresham all as elite prospects from Oklahoma.  I wrongly wanted Russell Okung more than Trent, as I thought Bradford/Gresham made Trent look a bit better.

- 2012 you had Andrew Luck clearly making Coby Fleener and Jonathan Martin look better.  David DeCastro was also on that team.

- 2012 part 2, RG3 made fellow 1st rounder Kendell Wright look better

- 2012 part 3, Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon.  At the time I could not tell who made who look better.

- 2017, Mike Williams (7th overall) and Deshaun Watson (12th).  In hindsight, Watson made Williams look better.

 

How this compared to 2020?

- LSU has QB Joe Burrow likely going #1 overall, and they have a WR, Justin Jefferson, who is creeping into the borderline late 1st/early 2nd range.  I think Jefferson clearly benefits from Burrow.  I still like Jefferson, but I think his value is lower than the current projection.  I also think talks of Thaddeus Moss as a Day 2 guy are due to Burrow making him look better.

 

- Alabama has a crazy group here.  You've got Tua, Jeudy, Wills, and Ruggs as all guys who can go Top 15.  Someone here HAS to be making the others look better.  But who benefits the most and who the least?  I don't know.

 

Regarding Chase Young.  How many defensive players have come out, where we can turn on the tape, and see they make things easier for the defenders around them?  This is not common.  Chase Young as a prospect, is bonkers.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

21 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

Yeah, that would be bad.  
 

Looking at receivers, I’m really curious who might be available at 3.2.

I ran a mock draft that went through each pick up until our pick at 3.2 I did mostly BPA with a mix of need for each team. The talent that remained at 3.2 was at positions that were not necessarily needs. Edge, RB ... and TE. So I went with Thaddus Moss for our pick at 3.2. Most of the mid-round guys were there still. The KJ Hill's and Van Jefferson's ... talented guys but I think there were 7-8 WRs taken in R1 and R2.

[Fresh8686]

4 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Look at Okudah setting the edge on that first play Zach Boren breaks down, and then flexing on the receiver after he dumps him.  That guy is a dog.

 

What do you guys think of Jordan Fuller?  This defense is ridiculous with how much NFL talent it had on it this season.

 

I watched Jordan Fuller against Indiana, Michigan State, and Clemson and I think I was only happy with the angles he took to tackle on maybe 2 or 3 plays. In nearly every other one, his angles consistently put him behind the ball carrier and having to play catch up. When he's part of a clean-up crew he can do his job, but he's not a worthy tackler on his own imo. Dudes are running through his arm tackles in these games and that will surely be the case in the NFL  

 

He's got decent speed, but he still shows up a step late on some catches. Also, I'm not a fan of the way he flips his hips and think he loses extra ground when he gets turned around because of it. I feel like he's leaving speed/explosion on the table that he could regain if he would sink and drive better.

 

He's kind of passive in some ways. I wonder if all the talent on this team made some guys content with taking a back-seat to the more dogged players who naturally look to be on the attack?

 

Also, I agree with the feel that there is probably a run on CB's in the second round and if one or two do slip, we'll probably miss on them too if we trade down.

 

 

[Going Commando]

16 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

 

I honestly don't feel qualified to answer this question. I've found Mcqueen to be a good judge of linebacker instincts over the years. Maybe he can weigh in?

 

I think his instincts are average.  Fresh is right that there is often an extra tick to diagnose plays.  There are quite a few messy steps in his film and I also think he isn't the best at feeling out those crossing routes coming into the back of his zones.

 

He doesn't really play a traditional MIKE role for Ohio State.  Spent a lot of time at WILL for them, and his run role was heavy on blitzing and forcing runs back inside for Borland and the DTs to clean up.  They knew Chase was going to basically force every zone read to the RB and create the alley through the B gap so they'd have Malik blitz.  The blitzing is the biggest reason he got so many TFLs IMO.  Presumably we'd want Malik to play a similar OLB-type role here in order to take advantage of the downhill violence he brings to the table.

 

There is a lot to like about him.  His play strength is pretty awesome.  Those contacts don't look as hard as they really are, but he is absolutely leveling guys and bruising them.  His closing speed is great.  If he can clean up his reads and play faster, I think he can become a pretty good NFL player.  He might go in the third, but I would probably try and wait until at least the fourth before going after him.  Guys like him aren't super rare in the NFL talent pool.

 

Next year is probably going to be a way better stack linebacker class than this year's.  Micah Parsons & Dylan Moses will be eligible and Paddy Fisher will be a senior.  Simmons and Murray are the only guys in this year's class who are special IMO, and Murray seems a little immature.  The way I would probably approach the position in this year's draft is to wait until the sixth or seventh round for guys like Shaq Quarterman and TJ Brunson.  Heart guys who are small for the position in the NFL, but play big.  They can probably get me through to next season with what we already have on the roster.

[Going Commando]

What about Joe Bachie as a sixth or seventh round run package option?  He hits like a train and he plays with a ton of infectious passion.  The suspension was a really bad look, but that's why you wait until the sixth or seventh round for him.  Two year team captain.  Strong special teams option.

[Going Commando]

Watching Joe Bachie cut ups and man, that DE #48 is pretty good.  Low skill rusher but has a strange and unpredictable rush style that is very physical and shockingly effective.  Plays with incredibly high effort and makes a ton of pursuit plays happen that you don't typically see from edge rushers.  A lot of stuff where he should be blocked, by all rights, but worms his way into the play.  Tackles like a linebacker too.  He gave Van Lanen a fairly hard time in the Wisconsin game, which is impressive.  He is a super tough kid.  That Michigan State front plays a super hard and physical brand of football.  Their offense must have been trash this year for them to lose six games.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[skinny21]

2 hours ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

I ran a mock draft that went through each pick up until our pick at 3.2 I did mostly BPA with a mix of need for each team. The talent that remained at 3.2 was at positions that were not necessarily needs. Edge, RB ... and TE. So I went with Thaddus Moss for our pick at 3.2. Most of the mid-round guys were there still. The KJ Hill's and Van Jefferson's ... talented guys but I think there were 7-8 WRs taken in R1 and R2.

Right on.

 

So in theory, if 7-8 are chosen in the first two rounds, the guys I listed as tier 3 guys should be available.  And if one, or some of them are taken before the others I listed, it would push down a tier 3 guys, leaving some good receiving talent there for the taking.  
 

- not that my tiering means anything, lol

[PartyPosse]

7 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

Right on.

 

So in theory, if 7-8 are chosen in the first two rounds, the guys I listed as tier 3 guys should be available.  And if one, or some of them are taken before the others I listed, it would push down a tier 3 guys, leaving some good receiving talent there for the taking.  
 

- not that my tiering means anything, lol

I think there will be good talent in the later rounds and UDFA. Mims, GAndy-Golden, Guidry etc

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

I think Thaddeus Moss is a Day 3 guy.  Round 5 or later.  If he goes earlier, I think that's because he a) just won a Championship and b) had Burrow throwing him open.  I've watched 1.5 games of him

 

He's got great hands, he catches well away from his body, he uses his frame to box out, there's a lot to like when he's the target of a good pass.

I love how physical he can be.  He's good at cut blocks.  His chip blocks can be violent.  He profiles best as an in-line TE.

 

Now for the unpopular take.  I think people are seeing what they want to see when they watch him move.  They want to see some of his dad.  But he's athletically limited.  He's a plodder.  His cuts are telegraphed, and I'm not sure there's much that can be done to improve them.  Some of the highlights shown for him making plays down the field are due to busted coverages.  He can't separate from college defenders, and won't separate from NFL defenders.  He doesn't have a second gear, let alone that rare extra one with the ball in the air that his dad had.  There's no sudden acceleration or burst to setup his breaks or coming out of his breaks.  He's got 1 play speed and that's slow.

 

Moss seems like the type of complementary 2nd or 3rd TE on a team that wants to run some bigger subpackages.

[Going Commando]

I've been watching Wisconsin vs Michigan State cut ups for multiple guys, and I was really impressed with Jonathan Taylor.  It was a tough yards day and he came through as they pounded Michigan St.  I think Taylor might be the best runner in the class.  Swift is so explosive, but Taylor sees his lanes better and is a better runner between the tackles.  It was fun watching him string moves together and fool Bachie multiple times in the hole.

 

Some guys are ordinary and hugely benefit from great block (Verdell).  Others help their blockers out quite a bit by setting defenders up to get sealed, and Taylor is one of them.  He just knows when to gear up and down, how to use lateral steps to ruin pursuit angles and fool defenders out of their gaps, and how to set his base to stay balanced through contact.

 

I think he's going to be one of those RBs who is kind of unspectacular as a prospect and gets picked in the second round, but ends up being a really good pro and everyone is going to be like, "Hmm.  Maybe we should have seen the kid who rushed for 6,000 yards in three years coming."

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

8 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

I've been watching Wisconsin vs Michigan State cut ups for multiple guys

 

What do you think of Quintez Cephus, #87 on Wisconsin?  I think he's someone with real NFL ability whose going to be slept on.

[skinny21]

Totally agree @stevemcqueen1 - IIRC, the run game started kind of slow, bunch of 3-5yarders with the occasional bigger run, but he just wore them down and started routinely ripping off big runs.  He and the oline took the game over.  He’s gonna be a good fit for the NFL for the reasons you mentioned.  

1 hour ago, PartyPosse said:

I think there will be good talent in the later rounds and UDFA. Mims, GAndy-Golden, Guidry etc

I expect Mims to be gone in the 2nd.  In my eyes, he has all the tools and physicality you want and then went on to showcase route running at the Senior Bowl practices...

 

Watched very little of Gandy-Golden, but I was a little underwhelmed, particularly in terms of his fit for the next level (I could be way wrong though).  Have not watched Guidry yet I believe.  

[Going Commando]

2 hours ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

What do you think of Quintez Cephus, #87 on Wisconsin?  I think he's someone with real NFL ability whose going to be slept on.

 

I didn't even realize he was in this class.  I thought he was going back to school.  He certainly popped in the Wisconsin games I saw as he was their only viable receiving option.  And that bobbling touchdown catch he had in the Michigan State game was nice.  He's a legit circus-catcher.  Also looked like he had the pancake block on the alley defender that sprung Pryor for the long TD in the fourth quarter.

 

I see a guy who is a natural deep threat and with good build up speed and the ability to explode into a top gear to catch soft coverage flat-footed.  He's got exceptional play strength and physicality at the catch point and in the contact window.  He's a bruising runner after the catch too.  Thick, durable-looking build for the position.  The ability to adjust to sketchy placement on long throws is also really good.  Sharp into and driving out of his break--looks really good on deep comebacks because you do have to respect that deep game with him.  Very difficult to tell which route he's running between the post/go and comeback.  His highlight videos are fun to watch whereas the cut ups are a bit of a drudge because of how scanty his opportunities were.  He was legitimately excellent in the bowl game against Oregon, which was a tough day because Oregon's defense played really well that game.  His route quality comes and goes though.  You will see him meander on plays where he's moving away from the design of the play.

 

Yeah, I think you are right that he is really good and he's being slept on.  Probably due to the nature of the offense he plays in.  I didn't even realize he'd declared for the draft, that's how little I've heard of him.  Probably would have shined in Mobile if he'd been a Senior.  I see some Deebo Samuel in him as physicality and toughness really define his play-style.  Also some similarity to McLaurin too because I do think he's a gifted deep threat.  Really nice prospect, good eye.