2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Est.1974]

11 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

We don't get tremendous value from our draft picks.  Ioannidis is the only non first round pick that's panned out from our last five drafts and earned a second contract from us.

 

Generally true, but players from the 2017 draft onwards aren't necessarily in a position for a second contract just yet. Let's see if your statement rings true in two or three years time when those draft classes get to second contract territory.

 

[Skinsinparadise]

7 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

If they're not playing for you any more, then they're not giving you any value for picking them.

 

To be four years on from a draft and only have one guy left from the class is pretty bad draft value.  One is better than none, but you've got to get more than one long term contributor from a class to have good roster quality and depth.  Or else you need to be hitting your FA and UDFA signings out of the park.

 

I get the point but that seems to be driven some by their cap management issues (i.e., the Alex Smith contract) and or their new desire for comp picks as to the 2015 draft.  By the same token the Ravens let a lot of their guys go.  We for example we'd be better off with Crowder on the roster IMO then have him play for the Jets so it wasn't a missed pick so I still see it as a good pick.  Plus when a guy like Jarrett gets hurt that's just plain bad luck.   So I judge a draft based on the actual picks.  But if your point is purely in the context of roster management then agree they aren't keeping their picks to build the roster long term so if they are gone they are gone.  They could have gotten 4 comp picks this time but gave up 2 of them for Collins and Flowers. 

[Est.1974]

Seems like OL is potentially strong in the 2020 draft. Initially drawn to Trey Adams, looks like he need to bounce back from health issues though. 

[Going Commando]

6 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

Disagree.  There are 17 teams not projected to receive any 2020 comp picks.  4 teams projected to receive only one.  We're expected to get two.

 

I see your point on a macro level, but I think we drafted well enough in 2015 to reap the benefits even if most of those guys are no longer with the team.

 

I would much, much rather have gotten two more long term starters, or at least key rotation players from the 2015 class than the 4th and the 6th.  That is a very marginal return for what we had and spent in 2015.  The absolute best use for our draft picks is to get guys worth second contracts, and no other result really even comes close to providing that kind of value.

 

I could better accept the argument that short term return followed by comp pick compensation is a worthy return for draft capital if we were Superbowl contenders like New England during that short term window.  But I don't see how you can claim that we reaped the benefits of that 2015 draft when all but one of the players is already gone, and we only made the playoffs that one year, when they were rookies.

[HTTRDynasty]

26 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I would much, much rather have gotten two more long term starters, or at least key rotation players from the 2015 class than the 4th and the 6th.  That is a very marginal return for what we had and spent in 2015.  The absolute best use for our draft picks is to get guys worth second contracts, and no other result really even comes close to providing that kind of value.

 

I could better accept the argument that short term return followed by comp pick compensation is a worthy return for draft capital if we were Superbowl contenders like New England during that short term window.  But I don't see how you can claim that we reaped the benefits of that 2015 draft when all but one of the players is already gone, and we only made the playoffs that one year, when they were rookies.

 

Let’s be honest here. Crowder was worthy of a second contract with us, as evidenced by what he got on the open market. Preston was too. If McCloughan was still at the helm, I’m sure they would have gotten those contracts from us.

 

After Scott left, you had Larry (the shill for Bruce) going on “Redskins TV” bashing the 2015 and 2016 draft classes, and it was obvious to me then that those guys wouldn’t be receiving a second contract from us.  I don’t penalize McCloughan for the political spin Bruce is always working to make himself look better.  We came away with three starters (one pro-bowler) in 2015, who all had key roles in helping us win the division, and they would have still been Redskins starters if the same GM were here. That’s a very solid draft in my book. 

[goskins10]

16 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

Let’s be honest here. Crowder was worthy of a second contract with us, as evidenced by what he got on the open market. Preston was too. If McCloughan was still at the helm, I’m sure they would have gotten those contracts from us.

 

After Scott left, you had Larry (the shill for Bruce) going on “Redskins TV” bashing the 2015 and 2016 draft classes, and it was obvious to me then that those guys wouldn’t be receiving a second contract from us.  I don’t penalize McCloughan for the political spin Bruce is always working to make himself look better.  We came away with three starters (one pro-bowler) in 2015, who all had key roles in helping us win the division, and they would have still been Redskins starters if the same GM were here. That’s a very solid draft in my book. 

 

Full disclosure I was and am a huge fan of Scot McCloughan. I was really excited when he got here and I loved his drafts at he time. But there is more to this than just those being Scot's players. And with all due respect, not sure there is a worst argument for a players worth than what they got in the open market as a FA. FAs get overpaid, and many of them by a lot.

 

Crowder was a nice story and the team got 4 nice years out of him. But he was injured the last two years - missing 7 gms last season. He had his best season in 2016 but then dropped off in 2017 including only 2TDs and 6 fumbles - 3 lost. Most of those were during punt returns (in fairness I would have removed punt return duties so he could focus on being a WR). But there is no way he is worth almost $10M/yr for 3 yrs ($17M fully guaranteed). Again, he was a nice story but no way is he worth what the Jets are giving him. 

 

Preston Smith lacks consistency. He flashes great moves from time to time. He also is under-rated at setting the edge but again like Crowder, he is just not the guy you want to invest in long term and for them money he got. He never reached double digit sacks - having only 4 all of last yr. With the extra attention Kerrigan gets, Smith should have been racking it up. I get sacks are not the only statistic, but 4 all season? Never a double digit guy? And he got $13M/yr witha $52M 4 yr contract - with $16M guaranteed at signing and another $8M in roster bonuses the next 2 season. The team cannot afford that kind of money for overage to above average production. 

 

There is no way, especially considering the CAP situation the Redskins have thanks to the Alex Smith contract that they could legitimately afford either Smith or Crowder. Could they have made it happen? Sure. But is that the best use of resources? I do not think so. Now they have new draft picks that at least have the chance to surpass the production of those two guys but on rookie contracts. 

As for the rest of the draft: Outside of Scherff who looks to get a new contract, who else should still be here? I believe they got the most out of that draft there was to get. Kesheon was a bad break or this draft looks a lot better The fact is if you 2 guys from each draft that are major contributors that is amazing. They got 1 long term guy and two guys that gave decent production during their 4 seasons. And they got really unlucky with Keshoen and possibly Arie as he looked set to be the starting LG until he got injured. No telling if that's a good thing or a bad thing. Right now it's just a thing. 

 

And they will get a few comp picks next season. Not bad, not great but not bad either. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Going Commando]

29 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

And they will get a few comp picks next season. Not bad, not great but not bad either. 

 

I think you've set your bar for good too low.  In general, I think Redskins fans tend to overestimate the quality of our drafts and our rosters until we get disabused during the season when we are overmatched for like 3/4ths of the year.

 

To be only four years removed from a class where you picked fifth or sixth in every round and only have your fifth overall pick left is really bad draft value.  We did a whole lot of reaching in that draft, and made almost no value picks.  Nor did we discover any hidden value that the majority of draftniks couldn't see without hindsight, except with Crowder.  I hoped for the best and defended that draft at the time.  But there were a lot of posters who called our picks out as reaches at the time, and it has now become clear that they were right.  

[oraphus]

This keeps coming back up..

1. you can not keep everyone you drafted.. nor should you try just because you drafted them unless they are truly a special talent at a position where its hard to find it.

2. The hit rate on pics in the 1st round is right around 50% if you average all positions and drops considerably after that

    A. resigning your own after 4 years usually means hitting a jackpot

    B. Having a good player leave to another team and getting a comp pick back is still a WIN.. considering the overall hit rate. This is something this FO realized in the last few years and have been able to take advantage of. This is something Patriots have been successfully doing for years

In 2015 the overall draft was average at best since the only player worth keeping is Scherff ... Fans get married to players on the team but in todays NFL its a mistake.. Most players outside of elite QBs do not stay on one team for longer than 4-6 years. Niether Crowder nor Smith are even close to elite.. but the fact that we are in a position to get comp pics is a Win.

 

The NFL has changed and the value of pics over FA has been growing consistently due to the overall infusion of talent and player readiness coming out college. Just 10y ago it was almost unheard of for 6th+ rd picks to start on teams within the first couple of years.. this is almost regular occurrence these days so the value of draft pics has been growing exponentially. 

 

Both 2017 and 2018 drafts are looking pretty good at this point.. and even if we don't keep many of these players, a good portion will keep playing in the NFL and will get us some comp pics at the very least.

 

[skinny21]

My take:  

1) We’ve gotten solid value in the 1st round recently - one bust, one pro bowler, 2 guys that are good players (and could become more in Allen/Payne), and probably good value on our two picks this year.  

2) we’ve been pretty solid in the 2nd round - Smith, Murphy, Anderson and Guice.  

3) 3rd round and later, we’ve gotten some good players (Fuller, Ioannidis, Moses), and some surprising value with late rounders (Reiter, Jarrett, Nicholson, maybe Settle, Quinn and Stroman, etc.).  

On the other hand, we also haven’t uncovered many gems (high end players and/or blue chip types) - perhaps with the exception of Ioannidis.  

 

I have trouble faulting the Redskins for losing Reiter and Sudfeld, or Jarrett to injury.  I don’t fault the draft process for losing Smith, Murphy, Fuller and Crowder.  Same thing for missed games by Ioannidis, Guice, Holsey, Robert Davis and Kouandijo.  

 

With that said, there have been some picks I had issues with.  Notably Matt Jones, Troy Apke, and Geron Christian (though this one could in particular could pay off).  We’ve had a group of ‘safe’ picks too, versus going for upside picks.  I’m not mad at that though because I think we were in need of solidifying the backbone/depth on the team.  I appreciate the attempt to add speed this year.  

 

[Anselmheifer]

SIP and McQueen, I think you are both right. I might lean SIP on this one by a little. Scherff, I think 2015 was a good, but not great draft. Preston Smith, Jamison Crowder are a solid haul for a draft. Kyshoen Jarrett in the 6th was a great pick. I don't even think Martrell Spaight in the 5th was awful and Arie Kouandjio was promising at one point but got hurt.

 

The fact that Jamison Crowder is no longer here isn't a negative. It is a New England style success. We drafted a guy that was good, found a viable appearing replacement in the 7th round, and let someone else sign the former player to a big money contract, which should have brought us a comp pick.  

Preston Smith is a bit different. He was good, but not good enough to justify a big money contract. In the end, I think that McCoughan over-values size and toughness and undervalued athleticism. He was looking for another Aldon Smith. Where are all of the current Aldon Smith's in the league that are killing it as pass rushers. It's getting to be more and more of a speed league. You have to have the requisite athleticism and we really missed speed off the edge while we groomed Preston Smith. 

Someone here posted a stat about the number of players drafted by a team that over the last 5 years or so, that are still in the league at this point. The Redskins were in the top 7, if I recall. We HAVE been drafting better recently. Our roster management however hasn't been great, and most of that is poor evaluation of pro personnel. We sign a lot of mediocre free agents. 

 

McQueen, I do agree that we have done a poor job drafting All-Pro players, but I think that speaks to multiple issues. We are always mediocre. We never draft in the top 5. When we draft at 10-5, we trade out of elite talent, or draft for need. Haskins was a solid value at 15. Sweat has a ton of potential. The back half of our last 2 drafts were great. If we keep drafting as well as we have over the last 2 years, and Haskins hits, then we will be in much different waters in 2020/21.

[nonniey]

13 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

If they're not playing for you any more, then they're not giving you any value for picking them.

 

To be four years on from a draft and only have one guy left from the class is pretty bad draft value.  One is better than none, but you've got to get more than one long term contributor from a class to have good roster quality and depth.  Or else you need to be hitting your FA and UDFA signings out of the park.

That has nothing to do with recent bad drafting (in our case). As has been pointed out several of our picks (most in 2015) panned out. It has to do with how the FO treats our own players/free agents once they start playing for us. This is one area the FO hasn't seemed to fix (Ionniddas being an exception). They tend to let contracts run out instead of extending while players are cheaper to keep. If we lose Scherff next year is it because he was a bust or is it because the FO failed to extend him when he was more affordable?

[goskins10]

2 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I think you've set your bar for good too low.  In general, I think Redskins fans tend to overestimate the quality of our drafts and our rosters until we get disabused during the season when we are overmatched for like 3/4ths of the year.

 

To be only four years removed from a class where you picked fifth or sixth in every round and only have your fifth overall pick left is really bad draft value.  We did a whole lot of reaching in that draft, and made almost no value picks.  Nor did we discover any hidden value that the majority of draftniks couldn't see without hindsight, except with Crowder.  I hoped for the best and defended that draft at the time.  But there were a lot of posters who called our picks out as reaches at the time, and it has now become clear that they were right.  

 

First, let's get the language right - I never at any point said good. I specifically said "not bad." But since you want to extrapolate that to mean "good", let me be clear: my meaning is average. A "good" draft would be better. But average is not bad.

 

I have set the bar based on actual results in the NFL historically, not what fans think a draft should produce. Fans do overestimate a drafts worth. Just the recent draft, each player has been penciled in as a starter at some point. Last year Trey Quinn was going to be a Hall Of Famer. But historically if you get 1 or 2 long term starters, one or two other starters, and a maybe one or two others to provide some depth before being replaced, that's pretty close to average or OK, or as i said, not bad. 

 

To this specific draft - you have one pro-bowler. You have 2 solid 4 yr starters, one of which is Crowder who outperformed his draft position (would not call him a diamond in the rough, but he certainly outperformed his draft position. Again a nice story.) You are either forgetting or ignoring  Keshoen Jarrett who was exactly that, a star in the making who met with a freak tragic injury that became life threatening. You just cannot foresee that before the draft. And, please do not say that other teams saw that or this entire conversation is a waste of time. 

 

So that's 3 guys who made significant contributions and one that should have outside a freak injury. Is it a good or great draft? No, of course not. Never said it was. 

 

Also, as for keeping Crowder and Smith, one has to wonder if the team was not so invested in Alex resulting is such a huge CAP hit, would have they tried harder to keep Crowder at least and maybe Smith also. In other words, they are more CAP casualties than the team not valuing them. That has nothing to do with Crowder or Smith. That is poor management by the FO, 

 

Also, you have not be willing to make your team better. If you can find someone better than you have, you get them. Does thgat mean you made a bad choice then? Not necessarily. 

 

As far as reaches - you say "many" reaches. Scherff was not a reach. Smith, you could argue he was. Let's see what he does elsewhere. Maybe our D coaches or and system was not good for him. Maybe he flourishes. That is not the draft, it's on the coaches. Then there is Jones - he was clear a reach. Poor player. All knew it then. Totally agree. The rest are later draft picks - past the 4th round. Hard to call any of them big reaches. Players at that end all represent risks. Some work out, some do not. Jarrett would have been a major steal but for a freak injury. Can't predict that. Hard to call Tevin Mitchell a mistake. He was sniped from the PS injured. Very rare for that to happen. Impossible to know someone else wanted him. Now in fairness he did not exactly have a great career - but at he time it was considered a good value. 

 

In then, I stand by that draft was Ok. Not good or great, but not bad either. More importantly, there are more inputs to players remaining on the team than I they were a good pick at the time or even how they played. 

 

Just for reference - I looked at the NE Patriots 2015 draft. Their are only 2 players from their draft still on the team (out of 11 players selected), one of which is the long snapper. The other is a guard taken in the 4th rd. Their 1st rd pick, their starting NT, was let go to the NO Saints. All others were off the team before the start of last season. 

 

You could try to argue that the Patriots don't need as many players so it's hard to stay with them. However, many of the players are not having good NFL careers, either bouncing from team to team or not in the league at all. 

 

So out of 11 players, they have a starting LG and long snapper - both 4th rd picks. I wonder how much heat the Redskins would get for taking a long snapper in the 4th rd. Just sayin'. But it also means that their 2nd a 3rd picks were complete busts and their 1st rd pick was not good enough to get a second contract. 

 

Again, my point is that fans have unrealistic expectations for drafts - that's perfectly OK. i am right there with everyone else. But when you step back to reality and the NFL Draft historically, getting 1 or two long term starts and a few others to provide several significant season, is just not a bad draft - not a great one, but not bad either - which if course was my exact statement, not that it was good. 

 

One last thing to consider, was 2015 a good year for talent overall? I do not have that answer. In fact it's possible that 2015 was the greatest draft ever. But all drafts are not created equally. That is certainly true by position but is also true overall with some drafts offering deeper talent while others not so much. Would be interesting to see a comparison. I do not have the time for it but still it would be interesting. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[volsmet]

 

[volsmet]

 

 

[dyst]

 Patriots  😕

[Califan007 The Constipated]

Putting a higher value on accumulating draft picks over keeping productive yet non-vital talent is a viable team building strategy, imo. It relies heavily on having a good scouting department and being accurate with whatever salary and cap structure you put in place. For maybe the first time in the Snyder era, the Skins have a lot of home-grown, starter-worthy talent. And usually, when we kept our drafted players before it was because nobody else wanted them enough to make them a competitive offer. And the ones we did let go we didn't replace with a younger and cheaper alternative who could be just as good via the draft. In the past, we would have hung on to guys like Chris Baker, Reed Doughty, and Kedric Golston far longer than we would now. Maybe not having the rookie wage scale in place played a role in that, but if so I'm not thinking it was a big one. Now, you can tell you're doing a decent job in the draft if you either find long-term starters and contributors or find yourself accumulating comp picks for good-but-non-essential players you let move on.

 

If we do things right, several years from now the Skins will either have re-signed Chase Roullier to a manageable contract because he's proven himself to be one of the top 12-15 centers in the league, or we'll let him hit free agency because we drafted his possible replacement a year earlier and will gain a comp pick due to some team with a hole at center overpaying for his services.

 

 

 

 

 

[HTTRDynasty]

18 hours ago, goskins10 said:

And with all due respect, not sure there is a worst argument for a players worth than what they got in the open market as a FA. FAs get overpaid, and many of them by a lot.

 

How about Approximate Value?  Are you familiar with that stat?

 

Per Pro Football Reference, the combined career AV of Scherff, Smith, and Crowder is 73.  They rank 18th, 26th, and 36th, respectively, within the 2015 draft class.  I'd call that solid, considering there are 32 teams in the league and we fall just outside of having three players give us top 32 2015 draft class value in their time here.  And as stated earlier, the ones who left give us an opportunity for comp picks.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2015/draft.htm

[goskins10]

Just now, HTTRDynasty said:

 

How about Approximate Value?  Are you familiar with that stat?

 

Per Pro Football Reference, the combined career AV of Scherff, Smith, and Crowder is 73.  They rank 18th, 26th, and 36th, respectively, within the 2015 draft class.  I'd call that solid, considering there are 32 teams in the league and we fall just outside of having three players give us top 32 2015 draft class value in their time here.  And as stated earlier, the ones who left give us an opportunity for comp picks.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2015/draft.htm

 

I disagreed with the premise that Crowder deserved a second contract here because he got a big payday somewhere else. And I stand by that. It's just not a good metric. However, I then went through the picks and while we should not have given Crowder or Smith another contract, that did not mean it was a bad draft, including that they will receive a few comp picks. Here is the last line of my comment: 

 

"And they will get a few comp picks next season. Not bad, not great but not bad either. "

 

May have wanted to read the rest of the post - not just the first line or two 🙂 .

[DWinzit]

7 hours ago, Califan007 said:

 

If we do things right, several years from now the Skins will either have re-signed Chase Roullier to a manageable contract because he's proven himself to be one of the top 12-15 centers in the league, or we'll let him hit free agency because we drafted his possible replacement a year earlier and will gain a comp pick due to some team with a hole at center overpaying for his services.

 

while I agree they could sign him to a manageable 2nd contract like they just did with Ion, I really think the roster has needed a dominant Center. The have always settled for a Chase. For me LT is most important then C then RT. A smart, mobile, nasty center paired up with good tackles and you can cover the G's with Chases. Kinda like it looks to be the plan at LG this year although perhaps Wes Martin will become what we hope. Drafting Ross P, I figure he will be a backup.

[HTTRDynasty]

7 hours ago, goskins10 said:

 

I disagreed with the premise that Crowder deserved a second contract here because he got a big payday somewhere else. And I stand by that. It's just not a good metric. However, I then went through the picks and while we should not have given Crowder or Smith another contract, that did not mean it was a bad draft, including that they will receive a few comp picks. Here is the last line of my comment: 

 

"And they will get a few comp picks next season. Not bad, not great but not bad either. "

 

May have wanted to read the rest of the post - not just the first line or two 🙂 .

 

Haha, my bad.  Busy day yesterday.  Was in a rush.  I disagree that a player's value on the open market is not at least a small measure of vindication that he was good enough to earn a second contract here.  But to each his own.

[Bonez3]

Crowder and Smith absolutely did NOT deserve a second contract. The 2015 draft was good, 2016 below average 

[Burgundy Yoda]

13 minutes ago, Bonez3 said:

Crowder and Smith absolutely did NOT deserve a second contract. The 2015 draft was good, 2016 below average 

Their production can easily be replicated. They are simply productive starters, with even decent drafting we can field 2 guys out there that can get 800-1000 yards receiving and 4.5 - 8.0 sacks. Those are just solid starter numbers, players you don't want to be handcuffed to contract wise. So i definitely agree with you, it's a good strategy to draft and let players go like this, unless they're actually really good players (Ioannidis), then sign them up!

[goskins10]

1 hour ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

Haha, my bad.  Busy day yesterday.  Was in a rush.  I disagree that a player's value on the open market is not at least a small measure of vindication that he was good enough to earn a second contract here.  But to each his own.

 

Fair enough. I have done the same myself.  

 

Maybe a small measure sure. I would agree with that. But at least the way the original comment read it came off as that it was more defining than just one small measure. I see it as a small measure because players seriously get overpaid in free agency. I just don't think Crowder or Smith deserved second contracts here at the same money they got elsewhere. 

 

However, I do not believe that just because the team did not see them at that value they were bad draft picks - which I think was your real message. And I definitely agree with that.