Koolblue13 Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 17 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said: Yeah if I recall he would have netted a 6th rounder back but the Erick Flowers signing nullified that. What a garbage signing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsinparadise Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 1 minute ago, Koolblue13 said: What a garbage signing. Feels that way. Will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
volsmet Posted May 10, 2019 Share Posted May 10, 2019 1 hour ago, Rex Tomb said: @volsmet I love your use of gifs btw. Good to know, I’ll do my best to defend myself with them when you come to hold me internet-accountable for my Haskins analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DWinzit Posted May 10, 2019 Share Posted May 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, volsmet said: Good to know, I’ll do my best to defend myself with them when you come to hold me internet-accountable for my Haskins analysis. Haha, you are king of the gifs! 🤴 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Going Commando Posted May 10, 2019 Author Share Posted May 10, 2019 56 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said: Feels that way. Will see. At best, it shows a somewhat troubling lack of confidence in Christian. But Christian might still be at least a year away from being a reliable swing tackle. I think Flowers actually has a chance to play and play well here. He'll get on the field at one of the tackle spots IMO. And he's very big, which can be enough to thrive. Plus if anyone can coax his talent out of him, it's Callahan. I'm hoping for the best because we really, really need good OL depth. Tired of having our seasons wrecked by injuries on the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malapropismic Depository Posted May 10, 2019 Share Posted May 10, 2019 This draft thread was created last August. Does that mean that the Official 2020 draft thread is only about 3 months away ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koolblue13 Posted May 10, 2019 Share Posted May 10, 2019 1 hour ago, stevemcqueen1 said: At best, it shows a somewhat troubling lack of confidence in Christian. But Christian might still be at least a year away from being a reliable swing tackle. I think Flowers actually has a chance to play and play well here. He'll get on the field at one of the tackle spots IMO. And he's very big, which can be enough to thrive. Plus if anyone can coax his talent out of him, it's Callahan. I'm hoping for the best because we really, really need good OL depth. Tired of having our seasons wrecked by injuries on the line. Its, I'm not even sure of the word. Demasculating maybe, when the Oline takes that kind of damage. Two years in a row with everyone being hurt. Oline is supposed to always be there. Like the TE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Est.1974 Posted May 10, 2019 Share Posted May 10, 2019 5 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said: So we didn't get a comp pick from Clinton-Dix? Well that was a big waste of a fourth rounder. Sure was. Overthecap actually includes DRC as a qualifying free agent pick up, which would offset the potential 6th for Ty. However, pretty sure he packed his bags mid season last year and shouldn't feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DWinzit Posted May 10, 2019 Share Posted May 10, 2019 11 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said: Yeah if I recall he would have netted a 6th rounder back but the Erick Flowers signing nullified that. Amazing how much more comfortable we all would be with undrafted 33 year old over the 9th pick in the draft 4 years ago. I am happy for Ty that he got $$$ but Ereck effing Flowers.....I hope they can work their magic with him but I am still having a hard tie swallowing this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsinparadise Posted May 10, 2019 Share Posted May 10, 2019 Waddle is insane too but since he's not coming out, not much to focus on as to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rex Tomb Posted May 10, 2019 Share Posted May 10, 2019 13 hours ago, volsmet said: Good to know, I’ll do my best to defend myself with them when you come to hold me internet-accountable for my Haskins analysis. Where in the world do you find these! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoggLife Posted May 10, 2019 Share Posted May 10, 2019 3 hours ago, DWinzit said: Amazing how much more comfortable we all would be with undrafted 33 year old over the 9th pick in the draft 4 years ago. I am happy for Ty that he got $$$ but Ereck effing Flowers.....I hope they can work their magic with him but I am still having a hard tie swallowing this one. I totally understand why people think like this. But also know we cant fix all holes in one year. We had so many holes to fix. We still need a LG, TE, #1 WR, Free S, Corner. We have enouhh to get by with those positions and if we keep drafting like we have the past 2 years we will fill those holes with solid guys. We could definitely find better then Flower if we had the money or more draft picks. Flowers was once a high 1st round pick so hopefully Callahan can work magic with him and help him be a decent player. We dont need him to be an all time great or all pro. Juat hope he plays good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsinparadise Posted May 10, 2019 Share Posted May 10, 2019 8 hours ago, HoggLife said: I totally understand why people think like this. But also know we cant fix all holes in one year. Agree but mainly because as good as this team of late has been at drafting -- FA and pro player personnel IMO is mostly "meh". So if FA isn't much of a tool -- tough for the draft to fix every hole. Plus I'd add as hyped as we get about every draft -- typically if you hit on 3-4 players its a stellar draft. So in short even some of the players that we right now think might fill a hole -- statistically speaking the odds are that some of them won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anselmheifer Posted May 10, 2019 Share Posted May 10, 2019 53 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said: Agree but mainly because as good as this team of late has been at drafting -- FA and player personnel IMO is mostly "meh". So if FA isn't much of a tool -- tough for the draft to fix every hole. Plus I'd add as hyped as we get about every draft -- typically if you hit on 3-4 players its a stellar draft. So in short even some of the players that we right now think might fill a hole -- statistically speaking the odds are that some of them won't. I 100 percent agree with this. We just aren't very good at FA. I would love it if Kyle Smith winds up in charge of everything and we get a director of pro personnel a level below him. I'll restate my belief that Chris Cooley has killed it in his FA evaluations and would make an excellent high level consultant. The link below shows just how bad we have been, but also another trend, that I think should be obvious to all of us. We have been doing well on our big time signings. Desean Jackson, Josh Norman, etc. It's our depth signings that suck, suck, suck. Terrell McClain and Stacy McGee? Really? Any fan could have told them they should have made one big signing there. No fan base should accurately feel like we could draft and sign better than the team using our collective fan knowledge and group-think. At least that is no longer true for this team regarding the draft. https://www.thehogsty.com/2018/01/31/the-redskins-and-free-agency-from-2010-2017/ 2017 The Redskins accomplished the following in the 2017 free agency period under Bruce Allen: Veteran Additions Veteran Losses Position Name Position Name WR Terrelle Pryor WR Pierre Garcon WR Brian Quick WR Desean Jackson DT Terrell McClain C Kory Lichtensteiger DT Stacy McGee C John Sullivan OLB Chris Carter DT Chris Baker ILB Zach Brown DT Ricky Jean-Francois S D.J. Swearinger Edit: We should be using FA to sign a few real impact players and using the draft to grab the bulk of our roster and our depth. It's not a novel idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Going Commando Posted May 10, 2019 Author Share Posted May 10, 2019 I don't think we've been a good drafting team. The lack of All Pro talent outside of a #4 overall pick from ten years ago is a testament to that. We haven't been horrible, but we haven't been good. We're a middle of the road team and it shows in our roster and our record. Even in this class, take away the extreme good luck of having Haskins fall into our laps and this would not have been a particularly impressive haul. To me, teams like Minnesota are the good drafters. I've been really jazzed about this Montez Sweat--Danielle Hunter comparison that a couple draftniks made, and it occurred to me that we traded two second round picks to get a 22 year old Sweat in the first round. Hunter is only like two years older than Montez. Minnesota got him as a skinny 20 year old kid with like four career sacks at LSU at the bottom of the third round. That is great drafting. That's vision. When is the last time we drafted an All Pro without a top five pick? They got Harrison Smith at the end of the first round and he's going to be a Hall of Famer. When's the last time we drafted a HoFer? They signed Adam Thielen as a UDFA. Jacoby is the last time we've had a UDFA end up as an All Pro right? We don't get tremendous value from our draft picks. Ioannidis is the only non first round pick that's panned out from our last five drafts and earned a second contract from us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsinparadise Posted May 10, 2019 Share Posted May 10, 2019 I agree Minny is better at drafting. I've actually used them as an example multiple times in the FO thread over the years. I also used that same Thielen example. When we the last time we got a stud who was a UDFA? This team under Dan has struggled to find game changing elite-great players in the draft sans maybe Trent. Some of their trade downs speak to this -- traded down and missed out on JJ Watt. Traded down and missed out on D. Lawrence. They took C. Rodgers when they could have had D. Ware. They took L. Landry when they could have had Adrian Peterson. On and on. The great players tend to elude them even in round 1-2 let alone them finding them lower in the draft. Having said that, I think we've been good albeit not great at drafting from 2015 through now (with 2016 being the hiccup but even 16 wasn't awful considering they traded down to land 2017 picks that year and got Fuller and Ionnaidis). The 2015 on the aggregate IMO was a good draft. 2016 mediocre. 2017 good. 2018 good IMO. Heck I am not even a Haskins guy (though I don't mind the pick) but still love this draft in part because its more aggressive arguably than some of their past ones. They swung for the fences. Haskins is swinging for the fences -- if he works out they are set. Sweat is swinging for the fences considering his upside. Love, ditto. I like some of the other picks too but I like the more aggressive (or at least in my mind more aggressive) approach. But I agree there is nothing special about their drafting just yet. But I don't think it's a reach to say its good. And i think some of it is relatively speaking considering we've had some awful drafts under Dan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HTTRDynasty Posted May 10, 2019 Share Posted May 10, 2019 To piggyback off the points above, I just saw this tweet and it boggles my mind because we're likely not going to even have a top half of the league offense. We need Haskins and these rookie WRs/RBs to work out in the worst way so we can let the older guys' contracts roll off the books and not overpay for middling FA's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Going Commando Posted May 11, 2019 Author Share Posted May 11, 2019 1 hour ago, HTTRDynasty said: To piggyback off the points above, I just saw this tweet and it boggles my mind because we're likely not going to even have a top half of the league offense. We need Haskins and these rookie WRs/RBs to work out in the worst way so we can let the older guys' contracts roll off the books and not overpay for middling FA's. The damn Alex Smith contract. Such a tremendous handicap. Yeah, we really need our draft picks to come up big for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Going Commando Posted May 11, 2019 Author Share Posted May 11, 2019 Out of curiosity, I wanted to see how many of our draft picks made it here long term. Looks like it has been only about one player per class for the last ten years. - Trent is our longest tenured draft pick. He's also the only player from the 2010 class that got a second deal. 2011 - Kerrigan is the only player still here, and he and Niles Paul were the only one who got a second deal. 2012 - Kirk is the only one who made it past his rookie contract, playing on the franchise tag twice. 2013 - Sadly, our best draft of the time period: Jordan Reed and Chris Thompson are two of our better picks in a while and they are both still here. 2014 - Morgan Moses is the only one who got a second deal. 2015 - Brandon Scherff is already the only player left from this wretched class. 2016 - Once Doctson walks at the end of the year, Matt Ioannidis will be the only one left from this awful draft class. Those are seven straight god awful drafts post-Cerrato. I would guess that only a few teams got less long term value from their drafts than we did. Hopefully the turnaround started in 2017. Everyone from that draft is still on the team, and Perine might be the only one who gets cut before the season. Jonathan Allen was a home run, but the rest of the class looks like cheap depth. Hopefully Roullier sticks around long term as a starter. We'll see what happens, but I am hopeful that at least four or five of these players get second contracts, which would be a massive improvement over our previous drafts. And the entire 2018 class made the team too, which is more good news. Feels like that could end up being another four or five player class. So I would say we have been an awful drafting team for almost all of the last 15+ years, except that our three most recent drafts could end up being really good. We got better after firing McCloughan, he oversaw a pair of absolutely terrible drafts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsinparadise Posted May 11, 2019 Share Posted May 11, 2019 I don't think the 2015 draft was wretched. We can talk about Scherff being over drafted but plenty of top 10 picks can outright bust including in that same 2015 draft so I count that as a hit. It's not a guarantee that if you take an O lineman early they'd be a success let alone a pro bowler. So I got no beef with the Scherff pick. Preston Smith for a 2nd rounder is good. Give or take 50% of 2nd rounders bust. Preston is no bust. GB paid big money for him. I don't discount players because they end up elsewhere. Jamison Crowder for a 4th rounder was a very good pick. Again I don't fault them for the Jets paying big money for him. Might be sadly the best pick at receiver for the Redskins in decades. If you get role players in the mid to late rounds that's considered decent. So Spaight was decent. Ditto Ari. K who would have been the starter last year if not for an injury. Jarrett was good as a rookie unfortunately he had a fluke injury. A. Reiter, 7th rounder, is still in the league, that's really good for a 7th round pick. Kiper likes to say if you get 2-3 starters out of any draft you've done good. Don't see how that 2015 draft can be panned as just average let alone wretched. If you look at how they did round by round and matched it to statistical odds of success, they did well in 2015. https://theriotreport.com/scout-camp-2018-about-the-author/ First Round Picks Only Have a 53% Success Rate And Other Troubling Draft Thoughts https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round Historic Success Chart The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters: 1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%) 2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%) 3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%) 4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%) 5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%) 6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%) 7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Going Commando Posted May 11, 2019 Author Share Posted May 11, 2019 1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said: I don't discount players because they end up elsewhere. If they're not playing for you any more, then they're not giving you any value for picking them. To be four years on from a draft and only have one guy left from the class is pretty bad draft value. One is better than none, but you've got to get more than one long term contributor from a class to have good roster quality and depth. Or else you need to be hitting your FA and UDFA signings out of the park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
volsmet Posted May 11, 2019 Share Posted May 11, 2019 1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said: Historic Success Chart The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters: 1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%) 2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%) 3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%) 4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%) 5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%) 6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%) 7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%) Better to get a DB in round 7 than in 4 or 6. 🤨 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HTTRDynasty Posted May 11, 2019 Share Posted May 11, 2019 1 hour ago, stevemcqueen1 said: If they're not playing for you any more, then they're not giving you any value for picking them. Not true. You get comp picks when they leave. The Ravens and Patriots have been gaming that system for decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Going Commando Posted May 11, 2019 Author Share Posted May 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said: Not true. You get comp picks when they leave. The Ravens and Patriots have been gaming that system for decades. Not if you have to sign a lot of FA veterans to fill in all of the wholes in your roster from not getting enough value from your draft picks. And not if no one signs your UFAs to big deals. Our comp pick haul from that 2015 class is marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HTTRDynasty Posted May 11, 2019 Share Posted May 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said: Our comp pick haul from that 2015 class is marginal. Disagree. There are 17 teams not projected to receive any 2020 comp picks. 4 teams projected to receive only one. We're expected to get two. I see your point on a macro level, but I think we drafted well enough in 2015 to reap the benefits even if most of those guys are no longer with the team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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