2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[PlayAction]

3 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

See, the issue for me is not his height (it’s a concern, but a... smaller one, ha!), it’s his weight/frame.  I have trouble seeing him holding up down the road.  

While I can’t see Gruden going for it, I could see Allen taking him regardless knowing 1) it could help with fan attention, 2) it might buy him more time from Snyder, and 3) he could then move on from Gruden in 2020 if Gruden has problems utilizing him.  

 

Murray doesn't look as much of a track runner as RG3 but his weight/frame does not appear capable of handling hits from 300 lb DTs.  If he were only taking hits from DBs then maybe.  In comparison, Russell Wilson is listed at 215 and has the body of a RB.  My greatest fear though is Allen again making choices that do not fit the coach or scheme.  It's a very destructive pattern.

2 hours ago, bowhunter said:

I had proposed something similar earlier in this thread. Trade back from 15 to 25-27 (Philly, Indy, Oak)  and pick up an extra 2nd round pick. Get Grier in late rd 1. Best OG with our 2-15 and hopefully trade 2-27 for a 2020 first rounder. 

  

I always like the theory of stockpiling picks.  But, you always are passing on a known option for the unknown.  Pass on a guy like Derwin James for the possibility that a player you like will be there at your lower selection.   The Skins really have to trust in their scouting department - in the past their trades up never panned out.  And their trades down into the second round were also busts.  Your real goal seems to be that you want a QB and a OG selected at a reasonable draft pick value.  That's understandable.   

[Anselmheifer]

1 hour ago, PlayAction said:

 

    The Skins really have to trust in their scouting department - in the past their trades up never panned out.  And their trades down into the second round were also busts.  

They don't trade up often. They traded up for Chris Samuels and RGIII. One of those worked out very well. They also traded down and would up with Kerrigan instead of JJ Watt, 3 2nd round pass catchers under Vinny. I guess they also traded up for Jason Campbell, after passing up the chance to take Aaron Rogers in favor of drafting Carlos Rogers. We would have done a ton better over the years if we had drafted talent over need. Another example of that is Laron Landry over Adrian Peterson. I'm worried that Derwin James will only be the latest. 

 

I hope we stop passing up on blue chip guys. If one falls to us at 15, we should take them, regardless of position. 

[skinny21]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Listening to some who cover the team they might indeed do that if a QB they like doesn't drop to their spot. And I am cool with that because I think their position will be better to jump at one in 2020.  

 

 

I posted an article a few minutes ago on the Bruce thread which suggests Dan might be in the mood in general to circumvent Jay.  So if by chance they have a shot at Murray wonder if Dan relives his 2012 infatuation for a ultra mobile Heisman Trophy winner and makes it happen anyway.  

Was just going to ‘like’ your post, but... regardless of whether it pans out (if Snyder does the above), I hate the idea of what it means.  

Quote

 

 

Mentioned Dalton in terms of a draft geek who was high on Grier relatively speaking.   Plenty aren't high on him, I've noticed.  He seems to get the most mixed reviews among the top prospects and is typically in the 2nd round in most mocks.  Not saying the draft geeks have a handle on the dude.    But as for me, I trust myself less at QB than any other position because of the difficulty of getting it right. 

 

I am reading Bruce Arians book right now which is pretty much all about how he evaluates Qbs and a lot of it is about judging QBs in the draft.  He more or less said that unless he sees elite skills on tape, he used Big Ben as an example of that -- its really difficult for him to judge QBs without bringing them into the building where he can see how quickly they can process an NFL playbook and process that information on the field.   To that point, Grier in a way will be tested on that front some this coming week at the Senior Bowl.  So I think among the QBs his evaluation might be the most interesting.  

Good point - I think even a decent/solid showing at the Senior Bowl (not necessarily stat wise, but decision making, learning speed, football IQ, etc) would be a big help.  Especially considering he already had success from the get to in two different systems (Florida/WV).  

 

If he can alleviate the concerns that his production was out of a spread offense, he’s only (as far as I know) left with one real question mark - how limited is he throwing to the sideline and without a strong base.  Just watched some film going back to his time with the Gators, Grier (unsurprisingly, given his youth) looks far less comfortable, his decision making isn’t as strong and his deep ball isn’t as nice.  However, I saw him looking pretty accurate on the move and when throwing out of a poor base.  Got some good distance throwing off his back foot too.  

[PartyPosse]

46 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

They don't trade up often. They traded up for Chris Samuels and RGIII. One of those worked out very well. They also traded down and would up with Kerrigan instead of JJ Watt, 3 2nd round pass catchers under Vinny. I guess they also traded up for Jason Campbell, after passing up the chance to take Aaron Rogers in favor of drafting Carlos Rogers. We would have done a ton better over the years if we had drafted talent over need. Another example of that is Laron Landry over Adrian Peterson. I'm worried that Derwin James will only be the latest. 

 

I hope we stop passing up on blue chip guys. If one falls to us at 15, we should take them, regardless of position. 

We didn't pass up on Allen. Hell I remember the debate was Allen or Rueben Foster and we've managed to end up with both!

[BleedBNG]

13 hours ago, RWJ said:

I don't think Grier makes it to our 2nd round pick.

 

I think your right. Miami will probably pick him up at 12. If he is available I wouldn't mind the Skins getting him at 15.

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

50 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

Was just going to ‘like’ your post, but... regardless of whether it pans out (if Snyder does the above), I hate the idea of what it means.  

 

 

Ironic you say that.  I just posted on that thread my take on what it means.  Called it a lose lose either way.

 

50 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

 

Good point - I think even a decent/solid showing at the Senior Bowl (not necessarily stat wise, but decision making, learning speed, football IQ, etc) would be a big help.  Especially considering he already had success from the get to in two different systems (Florida/WV).  

 

Grier seems to be attacked more than most about the system he is coming from coupled with his physical skills -- and how does that all match up to the NFL.  Again though I like the dude so am just giving some of the devil advocate arguments.  And Grier has his share of critics.  My main takeaway from Arians' book is it would be almost impossible to get a definitive read on a QB playing in a a spread offense just from watching games on TV unless they have obvious elite skills that just jump at you. According to him, you need him in your building for a private work out and quiz him to gauge the dude's mind and ability to process things quickly.   He's also big on the consistency of a QB's footwork.  He says the accuracy of a QB and consistency of arm motion and footwork go hand in hand.   So he'd probably have him throw again and again and again to see if he's fluid and consistent.  Not saying that Arians is the be all and end all but he clearly is an expert and I am not.  None of that stops me from opining about Grier but am more that willing to say I could easily be dead wrong about him.

 

 

 

[nonniey]

6 hours ago, BleedBNG said:

 

......... If he is available I wouldn't mind the Skins getting him at 15.

 

 

Well your 1. Probably the only one outside the Grier houshold.

[BleedBNG]

8 minutes ago, nonniey said:

Well your 1. Probably the only one outside the Grier houshold.

 

Ah c'mon, he's pretty good in the pocket and he releases the ball quickly and accurately. 

[Anselmheifer]

4 hours ago, nonniey said:

Well your 1. Probably the only one outside the Grier houshold.

I think he's better than Lock and Jones and less risky than Murray. I wouldn't mind if we chose him at 15. I am going to lose my **** if we take Jones. 

[RWJ]

11 hours ago, BleedBNG said:

 

I think your right. Miami will probably pick him up at 12. If he is available I wouldn't mind the Skins getting him at 15.

 

 

Love Grier and watched him play most all of his games as I live in WV.  I think #15 is a little high for him but we'll see how he does before the draft at workouts.  I'd like to see us trade down in the 1st acquire an extra pick or two and then select him between #20-25.

[dballer]

On 1/19/2019 at 5:13 PM, skinny21 said:

@Anselmheifer

That link I posted above was a list of sleeper prospects and Pratt was one of them (dude was very complimentary).  Haven’t watched much film yet, but look forward to it.  

 

Pratt won't be a sleeper after workouts and combine. He has great feel for the game...but he is also a physical freak.

[Commander Adama]

14 hours ago, nonniey said:

Well your 1. Probably the only one outside the Grier houshold.

 

Not at 15, but I would definitely like Grier

[volsmet]

 

[JoeJacobyHOForRIOT]

Would Joe T give his blessing for the #7 ? i say yes, especially after a few drinks

[mistertim]

16 hours ago, BleedBNG said:

 

Ah c'mon, he's pretty good in the pocket and he releases the ball quickly and accurately. 

 

He's also PFF's top graded QB in the country at throwing a go route and playing against blitzes. 

 

One thing to note in that video of Grier's TDs is just how consistently he hits guys completely in-stride, especially on deep balls (which goes back to the above PFF rating on his go route passing). That's also really important since he wasn't exactly playing with a star studded surrounding cast who got lots of separation, were contested ball experts, and/or were YAC beasts so most of his passes kinda had to be right on target for them to be big plays since the coverage was there. Grier's top targets were Sills and Jennings who are both decent but nothing special. I could see Sills going in the 4-6 round range and Jennings being a 6-UDFA guy. 

 

I really like Grier and we could probably trade back in the 1st and get him and an extra pick in the process. Though if he comes in and blows up the Senior Bowl I could see his stock rising dramatically. As of now he generally seems to be a sometimes low first, but usually high to mid 2nd round guy to many scouts. 

[mhd24]

Is TJ Hockenson the best option at #15?  We all know we need a do-it all TE who blocks.  Every indication is that he's the best TE in the draft (Font has better receiving potential), but Hockenson would clearly help our run game.  

[mistertim]

On 1/19/2019 at 6:17 PM, zskins said:

IF Murray falls in your lap you take him at #15.

Some sites in their mock have us taking a WR at #15. I hope not we go this route. 

 

I'm pretty "meh" on Murray as a NFL prospect and super "meh" on him here. Sure, he can be really fun to watch and is electric at times but a few things make me really uneasy about him in general. First is the obvious...his stature. I don't buy that he's even 5'10. I remember seeing him standing on the sidelines during a game right next to Marquise Brown, who's listed as 5'10, and Murray was definitely a bit shorter. He's also relatively lean so I don't see him as a guy who's built like a RB or something and can take hits.

 

Which brings me to my second issue with him...he runs so much. I have no problem with a QB who can scramble and buy time to make plays...that's one of the things that makes Wilson really good at the NFL level and one of the things that makes Tua so great at the collegiate level. But what those guys do with their legs and what Murray does with his are completely different most of the time. Murray is WAY too apt to just tuck and run instead of buying time with his legs to make a throw downfield. More often than not he gets out of the pocket and just tucks and goes instead of keeping his eyes up and looking for a guy getting open downfield. With his stature that's a 100% RG3 level injury waiting to happen in the NFL. 

 

My third issue is that I think his accuracy is pretty good but not nearly as good as his comp % says. I've watched quite a few of his cutups and there are tons of balls where he's throwing to guys who are wide open as well as many where he got bailed out big time by his receiver making a great play. To add to both of those previous points he's surrounded by big time talent. He has two legit stars and 1st round draft picks in Marquise Brown this draft and CeeDee Lamb in 2020 (assuming he declares); we all know how good Brown is but Lamb is also a legit stud with amazing ball skills and is a top notch route runner.

 

As far as Murray on the Skins...I think it would be a horrible fit given the coaching staff. I could maybe see if it we had a very innovative and flexible HC/OC like Andy Reid, Sean McVay (sigh), Doug Pederson, etc but Jay is basically the antithesis of those guys. He's pretty much set in his ways, his system, and his style and he's super conservative. He'd be incredibly unlikely to be able to utilize a guy like Murray correctly and any chance of him being a star QB would likely go down the toilet with a quickness here.

[Going Commando]

I haven't finished grading Grier.  My initial impression is that he's a second or third round talent who is reminiscent of Colt McCoy but I'm going to watch some more cut ups.

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, mhd24 said:

Is TJ Hockenson the best option at #15?  We all know we need a do-it all TE who blocks.  Every indication is that he's the best TE in the draft (Font has better receiving potential), but Hockenson would clearly help our run game.  

 

I've seen two recent mocks with Hockenson going before our pick at #15.   He's definitely a growing man crush for me.   My 2nd favorite do it all TE would be Irv Smith.  Fant isn't too known for his blocking.  Right now for me its Polite, M. Brown, C. Ford, Hockenson, Metcalf maybe B. Murphy, D. White.   I got to narrow it down 🙂 but right now I'd be pleased with Hockenson.  If you take him and lets say a guard like Lindstrom in the 2nd -- should do wonders for the run game.  Plus Hockenson might instantly become the top passing weapon on the team sans Jordan Reed.   With someone like Hockenson, you can go 12, 13 personnel without giving away that to be a sure fire run.

 

 

 

 

 

[skinny21]

So, I’ve watched a several safeties so far.  Wingard has a pretty high rating from some site I was on, but, although I really liked his tackling/run fills, he lumbers worse than Logan Paulsen.  Just don’t see him as a safety... not even close.  Unless he’s going to switch to linebacker (and I don’t really see a fit there either), he looks undraftable.  

 

Lukas Denis is a nice athlete/prospect though I wish he had a bit more size to him.  Very fluid and can play single high or cover slot receivers.  Generally really liked his tackling and play vs wr screens and outside runs, but he also took it a little to easy most of the time if he thought his teammates might have the stop.  

 

Darnell Savage was a stud against Temple.  He ‘missed’ some tackles (in the 2 games I watched), but most of those were him flying to the ball carrier and getting a swat at their shoestrings.  Otherwise, he tackles quite well - balancing the big hits vs wrap ups vs hitting the hips when coming from an angle.  Seems happy to stick his helmet in the mix and plays really fast.  Seems like a smart player that really understood his assignments and when he could come off them.  Very athletic and fluid too.  

 

Jaquan Johnson’s film was kind of surreal to watch.  Solid (at least decent) range/speed/athleticism, but what really stood out was how he took on blocks.  He’s like 190lbs, but honestly plays like an ILB.  Consistently shedding blocks from TEs and even olinemen, even when it looked like they had latched on.  It was so weird to see (really showed up vs BC).  While I can’t imagine this really carrying over to the NFL (at least to the same extent), it’s a really nice attribute for the guy.  Not sure he can add enough weight to handle SS duties, but he could probably roll into the box at times because of that ability.  

 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

I haven't finished grading Grier.  My initial impression is that he's a second or third round talent who is reminiscent of Colt McCoy but I'm going to watch some more cut ups.

 

Considering Jay's supposed man crush on Colt McCoy it would almost make him slam dunk our pick -- let alone 2 different draft geeks comparing Grier to Dalton. 🙂

 

I have a hard time getting a handle on Grier.  I watched him some more recently and I've pinned down what I like about him and that is Iike how he can contort his body when needed to dodge pressure and throw with off balance seeming arm angles on the move -- he's not great at doing that like lets say Mahomes is but he can do it at times.   Like Colt and Romo he can use his quick feet and pocket presence to dart around the pocket under pressure.     Having said that though he gets caught too much for my liking for a loss at times when he scrambles and that's against the lesser athletes from college -- imagine the pros?

 

I noticed the critics attack him on inconsistent mechanics, having an average arm and with concerns about him running the simplistic Air Raid system (heavy 4 verticals, mesh concepts) they run in WV which rarely forces the QB to throw in tight windows among other things.  He plays entirely from the shot gun from what I watched and not every QB who played purely or mostly from the shotgun in college adjusted well to taking snaps under center in the pros see Blake Bortles. 

 

I like though his moxie and when he can set his feet and plant, he puts enough mustard on his balls, he seems to have nice touch on his throws.  He comes off like a leader, plays with fire.  I like him but i am going to land harder on a stance about him after the senior bowl.  

[HigSkin]

McShay....LOL

 

 

[skinny21]

@Skinsinparadisenice breakdown on Grier and great point about him being a great fit for Gruden (including the younger in cheek angle, lol).  

 

He did have a lot of easy reads and throws that came with that offense, no doubt.  Personally, I thought he also had nice ball placement on throws to tightly covered targets, which mitigates my concern there a bit.  

I wouldn’t say I’m concerned about him playing from under center - he’s got the smarts it seems - but it’s something to watch, and it’s possible it prolongs his adjustment to the pros to some extent.  As I said earlier, his Florida tape made me feel better about his throwing from a non-ideal base, however I am still not sold on his arm strength to get the ball out to the sidelines.  Not that he can’t do it, but it’s a prime place to turn the ball over if the ball is a bit slower getting there.  I like that he can get the ball out quickly with a pretty fast release (on shorter routes at least).  He seems smart and mature enough that I’m less concerned about the things he can be coached up on.  

 

Like you, I dig him, but I’m very, very far from being a qb guru.  

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Anselmheifer]

12 hours ago, volsmet said:

 

 

I can't believe how close Lock is to Tua here. Funny that Lock rates better than Fromm, but people on the board would rather have Fromm than Haskins. I

 

Regarding Grier, someone here stated that he hasn't had to throw into tight windows. I think Grier has been good at throwing players open, and dropping the ball in the bucket on those long passes, but the biggest difference between Grier and Haskins, other than arm strength and the fact that Haskins has been in much more of a pro-style system, is that Haskins has shown a proficiency to completing passes to WR's that are well covered.  In the NFL, difference may be magnified. 

I was thinking about our FO this evening, and I think they might be more patient than a lot of us were thinking. If they are capable of playing the long game and realizing that you build a team with draft picks, allowing players to leave and mostly signing FA's that were released and don't count against our comp picks, I think they are capable of rolling with Colt and whoever and planning to take another shot at QB in 2020. 

Also, Hockenson would be a great first round pick. I don't know if I see him falling to us. I also still really like Byron Murphy and Jachai Polite at that spot. I also still think there is some chance that Devin White falls. Devin White and Reuben Foster, behind Payne and Allen and Ioannidis, would be fierce.