Alex Smith Trade Thread (Details Inside)

[ncr2h]

On ‎2‎/‎7‎/‎2018 at 10:10 AM, Llevron said:

Look at the Chiefs run/pass ratio. The look at the Eagles run/pass ratio when Reid was there. Ill bet that you will see a similar trend in that he likes to run the ball more than throw it. I think that has alot to do with his numbers. Perfect example being one Kirk Cousins and his accumulating stats that just make him look good when in reality we winged it alot under him. Not to say he didnt earn the stats. Just saying that the opportunity was more available for him to do so. The opposite for Smith. 

 

 

Actually it's the opposite - the Chiefs' coach looked at who was under center and preferred to run the ball than risk the inefficiency of Smith's arm.  Conversely, Cousins' coach looked at the alternatives and decided the most efficient way to move the team down the field was to have Cousins pass a lot.

 

Smith was remarkably inefficient DESPITE having the element of surprise on his side.  It is much more difficult to achieve Cousins' level of efficiency while at the same time having a greater volume.  Volume and efficiency work against each other.  The more often you run, the more the defense keys on the run, and the easier it is to surprise them with a pass.

 

Below is a table of Alex Smith's efficiency and volume metrics with the Chiefs.  ANY/A is a good all around measure of how efficient the Chiefs were when Smith dropped back to pass.  The attempts column is the Chiefs' league ranking in team pass attempts.  As you can see, he achieved mediocre efficiency despite having the element of surprise on his side more than almost any other QB.  Cousins' stats over the same period are presented in parentheses.

 

ANY/A, Att.

2017 - #6, #17  (#13, #18)

2016 - #15, #25 (#4, #7)

2015 - #12, #29 (#8, #20)

2014 - #17, #29 (#10, N/A)

2013 - #17, #20

[goskins10]

6 hours ago, kingdaddy said:

Lets say Denver approaches the Skins and says we'd like to trade for KC if you guys are interested in tagging him but we need assurances that he'll sign with us long term. Will you give us permission to talk with him? This would be similar to how we got Alex Smith....I can see a scenario where it's possible this happens. This allows Denver to lock up their QB so they can plan for free agency and the draft. Maybe all they offer is a swap of 1st round picks? Maybe they offer to throw in the third we lost in the Smith deal? Not a huge price to pay for keeping KC off the market. 

 

As is with every single person that brings up this scenario you are focusing only on the teams benefit and completely ignoring that if Kirk wants to test free agency and refuses to sign a LTD with anyone before then, it's no deal. And while Denver and Washington have an interest in doing something, if Kirk is not interested then it's not happening. The only possible benefit is saving the drama of being a FA. But he has already said he is looking forward to that. And before yo say it - if it's a team he wants to play with he can go there as a FA. 

[Rufus T Firefly]

20 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I am in the same place. My position I guess is a bit odd.  I like Alex Smith more than the typical fan.  But I hate the trade.

 

Basically giving up Kirk for nothing.   Giving up a high third round pick for Alex along with Fuller which to me is like giving up a 1st and a third.  So you get older at QB, downgrade a little at the position, downgrade at defense, and downgrade in the draft.

 

I've been consistent.  I said this weeks before all this went down.  I didn't want to trade for a veteran.  If they want to play out Kirk leaving then at least go young in a draft that is looking to be a decent one for QB talent. 

 

Cooey-Sheehan said a couple of days ago they heard that part of Alex's desire as for the trading partner in a deal is an agreement that the team would not draft a QB in this draft.  If that's so to me it adds insult to injury.

 

Yeah, all of that. I wanted us to wait it out, get what we can for Kirk and sign a cheap stopgap/mentor type.

 

I have said a few times now that this is probably my favorite QB draft I can remember. Not in terms  of the guys at the top, but that 2nd and 3rd round level. On top of everything else, I am convinced this deal will mean we don't take one of them. Maybe we take a 6th round flyer or something.

[goskins10]

43 minutes ago, Dan73 said:

Inside the 10 better than Kirk and is smarter with the ball. I don't think he threw a pic in the red zone.

 

You were spot on about Alex. I honestly did not know it was this much different. Part of that is a good running game. However, the stat that stands out to me is Kirk had 4 RZ Ints and Alex had 0. Also, Alex comp % was much better inside the 10. Kirk had one of the worst over all. 

 

Source: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2017/redzone-passing.htm

 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

1 hour ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Everything about that would be awesome. 

1. It would be an embarrassment big enough to even get Snyder's notice and be a step towards the end of Bruce.

2. It would mean we get Fuller and our draft pick back.

3. It would mean we would be in a position to find an actual trade for Cousins.

4. It would mean we need to think seriously about looking for a QB in the draft, like we should be.

 

There's almost no chance that that would happen, but I would celebrate if it did.

I agree that this would be awesome.  But most Brucely, it's the other scenario where Bruce just wanted to take the pep out of Kirk's free agent step.  Bruce didn't just try to save his job only to lose it by this blowing up in his face.  Terrible GM, but not that dumb.  Even if he was, Florio pretty much identified a scenario Bruce never even contemplated, in regards to how Smith might feel about all this.

[goskins10]

48 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I am in the same place. My position I guess is a bit odd.  I like Alex Smith more than the typical fan.  But I hate the trade.

 

Basically giving up Kirk for nothing.   Giving up a high third round pick for Alex along with Fuller which to me is like giving up a 1st and a third.  So you get older at QB, downgrade a little at the position, downgrade at defense, and downgrade in the draft.

 

I've been consistent.  I said this weeks before all this went down.  I didn't want to trade for a veteran.  If they want to play out Kirk leaving then at least go young in a draft that is looking to be a decent one for QB talent. 

 

Cooey-Sheehan said a couple of days ago they heard that part of Alex's desire as for the trading partner in a deal is an agreement that the team would not draft a QB in this draft.  If that's so to me it adds insult to injury.

 

 

Before the trade I was in the same place - in my mind starting Colt and drafting someone early as the best way. Buy I have to say after an initial WTF, I warmed to the trade. Don't get me wrong - I don;t think it was a "good trade" by any means. But oddly enough they could have done worse.

 

Part of the reason honestly is that it's a win/win for the fans in that if this fails it will hasten Bruce's exit. If he was allowed to draft a young QB he would have been given a longer leash. If it works out we will be winning games. And like you, I like Alex Smith more than most. I thought he got hosed in SF. It will be interesting to see who they get to put around him. 

 

 

[joeken24]

22 hours ago, goskins10 said:

 

Yes, I am saying Charlie Casserly is a ****ing idiot. He about destroyed this team. His analysis so far that I have seen has been mostly garbage. I don't need to know anyone in the industry to know he is ****ing moron. He proves it most every time he talks. 

The point is not Charlie's knowledge. The point is whether you know anyone in the industry to know what "you're" talking about? Do you watch film, do you know what play is called? Do you have any insider information from GMs, Coaches or players?  

I won't answer it for you. You and everybody on this forum knows that answer, unless your true identity is Vinny Cerrato (just having a little fun, relax).

Look.. I simply pointed out the observations of just about every NFL.com analyst. But because they didn't pick your guy, you respond by saying they're idiots? Surely you jest. (lol)!

 

In the paraphrase of Pee Wee Herman....You say they are, but what does that make you? 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

^This guy^

 

I'm sure if CSN has a vault of Charlie Casserly's appearances you'll find plenty where he goes on and on about how great Cousins is.  I've seen it on numerous occasions.  Even when he's conveying opinions closer to my own, I don't value his opinion enough to post it in an attempt to validate my own.  

 

 

[goskins10]

4 minutes ago, joeken24 said:

The point is not Charlie's knowledge. The point is whether you know anyone in the industry to know what "you're" talking about? Do you watch film, do you know what play is called? Do you have any insider information from GMs, Coaches or players?  

I won't answer it for you. You and everybody on this forum knows that answer, unless your true identity is Vinny Cerrato (just having a little fun, relax).

Look.. I simply pointed out the observations of just about every NFL.com analyst. But because they didn't pick your guy, you respond by saying they're idiots? Surely you jest. (lol)!

 

In the paraphrase of Pee Wee Herman....You say they are, but what does that make you? 

 

The point is exactly Charlie's knowledge and what I think about it. Your claim was "look, a so called expert agrees with me so it must be true". Interestingly you then  accuse me of the same thing in reverse.  Then you got defensive and wanted to move the discussion to make it personal about me - and then accused me of being defensive - sensing a pattern here. You do it then accuse the other person of said reaction. I see now the Pee Wee reference was really for you. It seems that is the maturity level you operate.

 

I have thought Casserly was an idiot since he was the Redskins GM and said so in my original post. He won a SB mostly with Beathards team then sent us in a tail spin. Since then the times I have seen him talk he has been wrong and/or just saying **** to try and be relevant. So unless I had a crystal ball and knew that Kirk Cousins was going to be born then become the Redskins QB in 1990, your claim seems quite ridiculous. Here is the best part, I never watched the clip. I just have zero respect for Casserly. Even if he says Kirk is great - which he has and he is known as Mr. Flip Flop - I just have no respect for his opinion. There are a few I do respect - Herm Edwards, Gil Brandt, Rich Gannon, Jim Miller and Pat Kerwin to name a few.  

 

It takes more than someone like you to irritate me. I just consider the source and move on to people with something relevant to say. So feel free to carry on without me. I tried to have a conversation but you just want to fight and make it personal. This is my last response.

 

[Rufus T Firefly]

[BleedBNG]

 

[Rufus T Firefly]

[skinsfan35yrs.]

On 2/8/2018 at 9:00 PM, goskins10 said:

 

He said that at the very end just days before the July deadline.  They were looking for a more realistic offer. Nothing came so a few days before the July deadline he made that decision. They had all kinds of time to sign him. By omitting the timing you are atrmptung to change the facts.   

 

I find it interesting that now every word by him that supports the narrative is gospel where before when it didn’t fit you had all kinds reasons why kirk detractors didn’t believe him.   

I think by refusing to even negotiate when Washington made an offer last year speaks volumes that he did not want to deal.

23 hours ago, Hooper said:

Don't be surprised when Kirk takes less than people think -- maybe way less -- and signs with the Vikings.

 

He just didn't want to play for the Skins because of Dan and Bruce. No amount of money was going to change that. He thinks they're bad at their jobs -- hard to argue that -- and probably doesn't think much of them as people either. 

and how do you know this to be true? thats right you dont, just your opinion

[Dan73]

This is another reason I like the Smith trade.

 

SizeFont                            

This is another reason I like the Smith trade.

 

I'm jacked. I'm really excited," Smith said. "Once I found out that things in Kansas City were going in a different direction, I was pumped at the opportunity and when Washington came calling I was hopeful that was a possible destination and I'm just jacked that it worked out and that they wanted me because the feelings were mutual and I'm looking forward to it."

https://247sports.com/nfl/washington-redskins/Bolt/Alex-Smith-jacked-at-opportunity-to-join-Redskins-114918441

 

Not hey this a business and I understand and will do what is asked.

 

 

[joeken24]

Hilarious!!

[SkinsFTW]

What's hilarious is the future reaction from those believing that Alex is going to make up for having no running game in the red zone.

 

I should really start keeping a list.

[Skinsinparadise]

9 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

^This guy^

 

I'm sure if CSN has a vault of Charlie Casserly's appearances you'll find plenty where he goes on and on about how great Cousins is.  I've seen it on numerous occasions.  Even when he's conveying opinions closer to my own, I don't value his opinion enough to post it in an attempt to validate my own.  

 

 

 

Casserly said not long ago before this went down the Redskins absolutely need to bring back Kirk Cousins and figure out a way to make it happen.

 

He and Joe Theismann have something in common though.  They both have a good relationship with Bruce and ownership.  They just about always have field passes and are roaming the sidelines before games.  Theismann has moved now from Kirk is a top 5 QB (let alone top 10) to letting Kirk hit FA is great for Kirk and Alex Smith coming here is great, too -- everybody wins! 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

Yeah, Casserly is one of those folks that seems to just say whatever he needs to say to continue any shred of relevancy.  And I think that even when his opinion aligns with mine.  I hate when he's on CSN.  In fairness, he has somehow, some way, figured out how to still get on tv.

[goskins10]

9 hours ago, skinsfan35yrs. said:

I think by refusing to even negotiate when Washington made an offer last year speaks volumes that he did not want to deal.

 

 

I feel like I should take the same 3 posts and copy paste as the same responses come time after time. 

 

Here we go again - They made the offer very early on. And at least in his eyes it was extremely low. Not to be accused of stealing someone else's example - I will give @Rufus T Firefly a credit here for the car analogy : 

 

If you are selling a $10,000 car and someone offers you $6,000, are you going to bother responding? Especially when you provided them an offer the year before and they tagged you instead of negotiating? I would not. And agree or not, Kirk's team felt like they were extremely low balled. And they expected another offer - especially in June when the team made noises (if local media and some of those close to the situation are to be believed) they were going to make another offer. However they did not. Once that became clear he decided just to play on the $24M Tag. 

 

The reason I state this - again - is that just making the blanket statement that he refused to negotiate is misleading. He was willing to until they low-balled him - at least in his eyes, then backed out of providing another offer after making it appear they were going to. I do agree he should have probably given them some kind of offer. But considering the posture the Redskins FO has taken with him - especially Bruce - you can see why he felt like they were not really committed. 

 

9 hours ago, skinsfan35yrs. said:

 

and how do you know this to be true? thats right you dont, just your opinion

 

Has Kirk come right out and said I hate Bruce Allen and Dan Snyder? No. And actually I do not think Kirk has a problem with Dan. But if you look at how everything has gone and what Kirk has said - and more importantly not said - I think you can make a pretty compelling argument that he has little to no respect for Bruce Allen and as a result has concerns about the direction of the team. 

 

1. The teams tagging him instead for considering the $19M/ yr offer - granted we do not know the details. But if we are going to ding Kirk for not responding this last off season, then we have to ding the team for not responding to the initial offer. They could have at least countered with something. By not even discussing it they were saying he was crazy high. Which I can see them placing the tag if they really believed that. It goes both ways. 

 

2. Kirk repeatedly stating he just wanted the team to show him they wanted him - in the words of Rod Tidwell - Show me the money! That's Bruce Allen's job and so far he has never provided a market level offer. 

 

3. Kirk over the last 12 months has had very good things to say about his team mates, Jay Gruden, and even Dan Snyder saying "Dan has been very good to me." The one person noticeably absent from those comments is Bruce Allen. Maybe I am reading too much into it. But when he goes out of his way to say something positive about every single person in the organization but one - that to me is a huge red flag. 

 

Based on those factors I do not see it as a huge leap to suggest Kirk has a real problem with Bruce Allen and his ability to build the team. 

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

11 hours ago, goskins10 said:

 

Before the trade I was in the same place - in my mind starting Colt and drafting someone early as the best way. Buy I have to say after an initial WTF, I warmed to the trade. Don't get me wrong - I don;t think it was a "good trade" by any means. But oddly enough they could have done worse.

 

Part of the reason honestly is that it's a win/win for the fans in that if this fails it will hasten Bruce's exit. If he was allowed to draft a young QB he would have been given a longer leash. If it works out we will be winning games. And like you, I like Alex Smith more than most. I thought he got hosed in SF. It will be interesting to see who they get to put around him. 

 

 

 

I was listening the other day to the litany of why Alex Smith is just a guy by the KC radio personality and I actually felt bad for Smith.  He seems to be scapegoated in KC (not just by that radio guy) for KC's inability to stop opposing offenses in key games and is labeled as "unclutch."  And that he only had a big year because of his weapons and isn't much of a QB without them and or a running game.  

 

Granted, I haven't watched Alex Smith a ton.  But I've liked what I've seen.  He's accurate and mobile.  And in interviews he comes off as a super nice guy albeit quiet and unassuming for the typical QB.  But I am not blaming any QB for needing a defense to stop the opponents and or have weapons or a running game.  The argument seemed to a tee the same stuff leveled at Kirk.  So I'll defend Alex the same way.  And its not for a specific liking for Alex and Kirk but just my take on QBs -- they pretty much all need supporting casts.

 

As for you warming up to the deal.  It's understandable.  I've been warm about Alex Smith but not the trade.   I'd love to be proven wrong and by that I don't mean Alex plays well.  I do think Alex does play well.  For me to be proven wrong, they need to win a Superbowl next season or the one after or come close enough where we have one heck of a ride and memorable season. 

 

Because to me you are getting older -- older QB, subtract draft pick, subtract young defender.  It's a win now move.  And to me a win now isn't 8-8 or 9-7 where at best you are one and done in the playoffs.  IMO its not worth sacrificing your future for achieving mediocrity.  With Kirk I could be patient and give them a season or two to build a defense.  Kirk is likely playing at least another 7 seasons.  With Alex we likely got 3 seasons.

[Burgold]

24 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

As for you warming up to the deal.  It's understandable.  I've been warm about Alex Smith but not the trade.   I'd love to be proven wrong and by that I don't mean Alex plays well.  I do think Alex does play well.  For me to be proven wrong, they need to win a Superbowl next season or the one after or come close enough where we have one heck of a ride and memorable season. 

 

Because to me you are getting older -- older QB, subtract draft pick, subtract young defender.  It's a win now move.  And to me a win now isn't 8-8 or 9-7 where at best you are one and done in the playoffs.  IMO its not worth sacrificing your future for achieving mediocrity.  With Kirk I could be patient and give them a season or two to build a defense.  Kirk is likely playing at least another 7 seasons.  With Alex we likely got 3 seasons.

I think that's fair though I'd put the marker at making the playoffs. After all, I'm not sure we get to the playoffs in 2018 with Kirk and I think he's a shade better than Alex. In fact, I think we are slightly more likely to reach the playoffs this year despite Smith being a somewhat inferior player because we aren't burdened by the cap eaten up by a 34 million dollar contract. And let's be honest, that 34 Franchise tag was the only way Kirk would have played here and so that and the player losses that come with it have to be factored in.

 

The Redskins win this trade if Alex gets a playoff win or two by 19. Now, it will always be countermeasured by Cousins. If Cousins joins a team and rockets them to the playoffs and Superbowl then the Redskins are losers no matter how well Smith performs because we had the horse and we didn't bet on it (even if the bet should have been placed three years ago and the windows were closed this year.)

 

Mind you, if Cousins collects a 100 plus million dollar contract and his team tanks while we edge the playoffs that counts too. Though not entirely as I would have rather gone with Colt and a pup drafted this year or next and build the team. It didn't have to be Smith vs. Cousins. That's a hand the Redskins chose.

[wit33]

Casserly doesn’t care about hurting feelings of players or coaches. Just calls it like he sees it. National Football coverage is lame, boring and runs off of a Buddy System, sonits refreshing to hear original personalities and Charlie is one of the few.

 

Whether he’s right or wrong (I can truly care less, but appreciate some one speaking their mind truthfully), he at least makes it clear what he feels and side of argument he’s on (whatever issue it may be). This why I like the old heads, they are retired and no longer are worried about their next job when chatting it up. 

 

Most of of these guys will do a 90 sec segment and provide nothing but fluff and cliche nonsense. Yawn! 

 

The NFL doesn’t want originality on its transistors, Charlie gives us a taste of it. 

 

Get off Charlies back  

[wit33]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

Granted, I haven't watched Alex Smith a ton.  But I've liked what I've seen.  He's accurate and mobile.  And in interviews he comes off as a super nice guy albeit quiet and unassuming 

 

I’m with you, I was hoping to get a guy that would infuse some much needed energy and leadership into the offense, but it appears from afar that Alex is a quiet leader (Guys with emotion are just more enjoyable for me to root for as a fan). I hope he at least makes the guys feel like he’s one of them (again, Not that this is needed, just a preference for me personally).

 

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

As for you warming up to the deal.  It's understandable.  I've been warm about Alex Smith but not the trade.   I'd love to be proven wrong and by that I don't mean Alex plays well.  I do think Alex does play well.  For me to be proven wrong, they need to win a Superbowl next season or the one after or come close enough where we have one heck of a ride and memorable season. 

 

A super bowl win this year or next lol This is a long shot for even the Patriots to accomplish. The fan base is starving for relevancy and being in playoffs, let’s start there. 

 

 

[SkinsFTW]

24 minutes ago, Burgold said:

If Cousins joins a team and rockets them to the playoffs and Superbowl then the Redskins are losers no matter how well Smith performs because we had the horse and we didn't bet on it (even if the bet should have been placed three years ago and the windows were closed this year.)

 

 

 

The Redskins did bet on Cousins. They franchised him at 20M when he was willing to sign for less annually, and likely much less before Osweiler. 

 

They bet that he'd be worse and not worth a 17-19M a year contract by offering him 20 for a year. This can't be any more clear.

 

The only way 20M is a good idea for a single season is if he totally bombs which would significantly lower his value and that was their bet (as dumb as it sounds is as dumb as it was). Even if he has an Alex Smith 15td and 6int season hes probably worth more than the 20 the next season because everyone knows that QB contracts are only increasing and Osweiler just signed for 18 a year. (They could have signed him long before Osweiler)

 

Then last year they conveniently lost his 2 best WRs and OC and bet against him once more at 24M just because they thought that this edge would prove that they weren't as dumb as the box of rocks they've been unfavorably compared to.

 

Yet the Redskins brain trust debunked the idea that nothing can be as dumb as a box of rocks.

 

If Jerry Jones had provided us with 3 years of comedy this hilariously moronic 99.5% of Redskins fans would be willing to buy it on pay per view for 2018, yet it's almost acceptable for the Kool aid drinkers. 

 

This is actually why all of this is so hilarious. 

[skins island connection]

 Back in the day, Charlie looked like he could have been a stoner in his teenage years.  Sitting on a log, listening to CCR or the Doors, you know, groovin'.

 

Cousins is gone, Smith is in,  and everyone is trying to prove themselves right in arguments from red zone accuracy to which hair products they use.

I just want this whole damn thing to pass until the draft gets here and the entire process begins all over again, then get to pre-season, where once again fans will be doing pros vs cons on Smith vs Cousins.

 

Yes, the offseason can get boring...