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Election 2018 Thread (An Adult Finally Has the Gavel)


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3 minutes ago, NoCalMike said:

I keep hearing ads during right wing radio show commercials saying "Save Medicare, don't let it turn into Sanders Care" as in Bernie Sanders.  I am not even sure what their angle is because the GOP always seems to be for cutting Medicare constantly.

 

What else are they going to say?  "Elect Republicans so we can keep giving tax breaks to people that aren't you and don't need tax breaks."

What parts of the Republican agenda poll well with people that aren't already definitely voting Republican?

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Look, just get rid of that dirty commie socialist Obamacare. Just don't you dare touch my Medicare, or the ACA which I need to stay alive right now. I paid my taxes.

I do honestly wonder if youth turnout is going to be any different than previous cycles. Every time elections come around, they are called out for not showing up outside of Obama, and rightfully so. But it does feel different this year. Like more 18-21 year olds are going to show up and vote. Curious how polling works around that. I don't have a landline, haven't in over a decade. These kids never will. How are they tracked?

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2 hours ago, NoCalMike said:

I keep hearing ads during right wing radio show commercials saying "Save Medicare, don't let it turn into Sanders Care" as in Bernie Sanders.  I am not even sure what their angle is because the GOP always seems to be for cutting Medicare constantly.

 

"Save Medicare by letting the Republicans void the trust fund, turn the program into a general revenue program rather than separate accounting, turn it from a defined-benefit entitlement to a budgeted, allocated, subsidy to the states (so that we can then cut it while loudly claiming that we didn't cut it), while keeping it's taxes the same, so that we can turn it back into a revenue-generating program, which we can use to cover the deficit from the tax cuts we handed out."  

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3 hours ago, visionary said:

 

 

That's one of those districts that, if it flips, will happen as part of a greater-than-expected blue wave.  Cook Political has it as Lean Republican and 538 gives the Republican an 80% chance of winning.  Pence also has to go to those kinds of districts because the candidates in toss ups mostly don't want to be associated with him or Trump.  

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House Rating Changes: Eight More GOP Seats Move Towards Democrats

 

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-rating-changes-eight-more-gop-seats-move-towards-democrats

 

Quote

It's becoming harder and harder to see Republicans' path to holding the majority. In the past few days, multiple Democrats challengers have announced staggering fundraising totals of more than $3 million during the third quarter of the year, exceeding what many predecessors have raised for an entire cycle. One high-ranking Republican worries his party could be "buried under an avalanche" of Democratic money that GOP outside groups can't match.
 
After today's ratings changes, there are 15 GOP-held seats in Lean or Likely Democratic (including seven incumbents) and Democrats would only need to win 11 of the 31 races in the Toss Up column to flip the majority. There's still time for political conditions to change, but today the likeliest outcome appears to be a Democratic gain of between 25 and 40 seats (they need 23 for House control).

 

FL-26: Carlos Curbelo (R) - Lean R to Toss Up  ←
KS-03: Kevin Yoder (R) - Toss Up to Lean D  ←
MI-03: Justin Amash (R) - Solid R to Likely R  ←
MI-11: OPEN (Trott)(R) - Toss Up to Lean D  ←
NY-21: Elise Stefanik (R) - Solid R to Likely R  ←
NY-24: John Katko (R) - Likely R to Lean R  ←
PA-17: Keith Rothfus (R) - Lean D to Likely D  ←
UT-04: Mia Love (R) - Lean R to Toss Up  ←

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