Will Cousins Play For The Skins In 2018

[Tay]

11 minutes ago, MartinC said:

 

This is a convo for a different thread but Rudolph at #13 would be be a hell of a reach IMO. He has got a so so arm and his accuracy was inconsistent. He put up insane numbers in a system design to do exactly that. But the tape is not that impressive IMO. I would not pick him anywhere in the first round. But then I don't get a vote.

 

Mayfield is listed at 6' 1". Thats generous. I think he measure in at 6 foot even at best.

 

Now I don't care about that. But its way outside the NFL prototype for the position. It will take a leap of faith for an NFL GM to pick him top 10. I would (but my job is not on the line) and it could well happen - but I think there is at least a chance he is there at #13. if he is and we pass ..

 

I'm really looking forward to hearing reports from Senior Bowl Practice. Mayfield, Rudolph, and Allen will all be participating. It'll be good to hear about those guys performance where you can see their skillset and leadership basically side by side. I think we'll be much more from the senior bowl than the combine.

[Tay]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Seems like on Mayfield is a bit of a love-hate prospect but guys like Albert Breer who claim to be talking to scouts-personnel types -- seems to think there are enough who love him that he might be picked top 10.  Breer isn't the only one with that point of view.  I guess will see.   In some mocks, i see him top 10 right now.  All speculation now since its early in the process.

 

 

Scot said Mayfield was his #1. Reminds him of Favre.

[Rufus T Firefly]

5 hours ago, fordranger76 said:

If we cut Terrell McClain it will be a cap hit of -2,312,500 if its pre June 1st. After June 1st its a dead cap of 4,500,500 for 2018 and 2,500,000 for 2019. Only get a savings of 187,500 dollars. That is one guy we should not cut because he is going to ding the cap. At least not this year. We need every dollar of it if resigning Cousins.

Yeah, Mcclain's salary for this year is guaranteed apparently, I missed that. A lot of guaranteed money for a guy who's so invisible I literally forgot he existed for large portions of the season.

[Skinsinparadise]

38 minutes ago, Tay said:

Scot said Mayfield was his #1. Reminds him of Favre.

 

I saw that.  I like Scot but he's not infallible.  Scot also said its really hard to figure out QBs in the draft and he said it in the context of if he was in the Redskins shoes he'd sign Kirk this off season to a LTD.

 

I got no strong feeling one way or another about Mayfield.  I am not on board that he's a slam dunk.  A Big 12, 6 foot QB, who is slow, played just about exclusively out of a shot gun -- where even guys like Tebow doesn't think Mayfield is suited to an NFL offense and you need to adjust the offense to him.   He doesn't scream to me as a guy who is close to being a sure thing. 

[Tsailand]

3 hours ago, ThomasRoane said:

there will come a time (vs a good defense) when a defense will make your guy stay in the pocket and force him to read a defense and complete a 3rd and long.  If a QB can't master that then he won't have a future in the NFL.

 

[Veryoldschool]

Any NFL franchise that drafts a QB that did not play in a pro-style in college is making sucker's bet in my opinion.  Obviously, many successful NFL QBs came from spread programs but I think the chances of success are much higher drafting a kid from a pro-style program.  Most college programs use spread offenses so the talent pool of pro-style college QBs is much smaller but the starters in pro systems have already jumped a bunch of mental hurdles to start and perform so the risk is much smaller.

 

I think QBs that come from track meet conferences are higher risks as well.  They haven't faced real defenses yets so why put any credence on their stats?  Griffin isn't the only bust coming out of a track meet program, just the biggest bust.

[MartinC]

12 hours ago, skinzplay said:

I wish I had some kind of eye for QBs. I love it when talented scouts with that kind of eye can zero in on a kid in the 3rd - 4th round, pair him with a damn good QB coach for development, and see him take off. I'm hoping there are some kids like that in this year's or next year's pool. Unfortunately, I didn't watch much college football at all this season, except for the two playoff games.

 

4th round QBs very rarely pan out and put up Pro Bowl level numbers on a consistent basis. It happens occasionally of course and if a teams lucky enough to strike on a guy like that they lock him up and thank the stars.

 

Now, what was this thread about again?

10 hours ago, Veryoldschool said:

Any NFL franchise that drafts a QB that did not play in a pro-style in college is making sucker's bet in my opinion.  Obviously, many successful NFL QBs came from spread programs but I think the chances of success are much higher drafting a kid from a pro-style program.  Most college programs use spread offenses so the talent pool of pro-style college QBs is much smaller but the starters in pro systems have already jumped a bunch of mental hurdles to start and perform so the risk is much smaller.

 

I think QBs that come from track meet conferences are higher risks as well.  They haven't faced real defenses yets so why put any credence on their stats?  Griffin isn't the only bust coming out of a track meet program, just the biggest bust.

 

I agree with you on the conferences in which defense is pretty much an after thought. Makes it very hard to grade QBs - everything becomes a projection. 

 

Not sure I agree with you on the spread though. Most NFL teams incorporate spread concepts in their passing games now.

 

What do you mean by ‘pro type system’ and what College teams do you view as running that?

[MartinC]

11 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I saw that.  I like Scot but he's not infallible.  Scot also said its really hard to figure out QBs in the draft and he said it in the context of if he was in the Redskins shoes he'd sign Kirk this off season to a LTD.

 

I got no strong feeling one way or another about Mayfield.  I am not on board that he's a slam dunk.  A Big 12, 6 foot QB, who is slow, played just about exclusively out of a shot gun -- where even guys like Tebow doesn't think Mayfield is suited to an NFL offense and you need to adjust the offense to him.   He doesn't scream to me as a guy who is close to being a sure thing. 

 

No one is a sure thing. Literally no one.

 

Mayfield is not slow by the way. He’s got wheels. Meanwhile almost 70% of NFL snaps last year were out of shotgun.

[Darrell Green Fan]

12 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I saw that.  I like Scot but he's not infallible.  Scot also said its really hard to figure out QBs in the draft and he said it in the context of if he was in the Redskins shoes he'd sign Kirk this off season to a LTD.

 

I got no strong feeling one way or another about Mayfield.  I am not on board that he's a slam dunk.  A Big 12, 6 foot QB, who is slow, played just about exclusively out of a shot gun -- where even guys like Tebow doesn't think Mayfield is suited to an NFL offense and you need to adjust the offense to him.   He doesn't scream to me as a guy who is close to being a sure thing. 

 

I am comfortable predicting that Mayfield will not be the very first Big 12 QB in history to have a major impact in the NFL.  

[Tay]

13 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I got no strong feeling one way or another about Mayfield.  I am not on board that he's a slam dunk.  A Big 12, 6 foot QB, who is slow, played just about exclusively out of a shot gun -- where even guys like Tebow doesn't think Mayfield is suited to an NFL offense and you need to adjust the offense to him.   He doesn't scream to me as a guy who is close to being a sure thing. 

"Even guys like Tebow". That was a joke right?

 

I'll rely on the option of Scot and other NFL scouts over Tebow any day.

 

Adam Schefter said on SC a few weeks ago that he guaruntees Baker will go in the first round and higher than many think, because of what he heard from a few front offices. 

 

I think you are down on any other option because you see resigning Kirk as the only option. 

 

I've come to the conclusion that at the end of the day, if Kirk doesn't want to be here, he's not going to be here, so what's the next best option. 

 

Who knows? The next best option may turn out to be a better option than staying with Kirk. Only time will tell. 

 

 

[skinzplay]

Sometimes, I think it's also a case of being sure that these young, talented college QBs are paired with a good QB coach who can truly develop them. All those 1st round QBs they drafted in Cleveland had no one to really develop them, or a first-year HC who was overwhelmed by the Brown Monster (which the law offices of Dorsey, Wolf, and Hightower will soon dismiss with swiftness). It's why I always feel bad for the high-performing collegiate stars who get to the NFL and flame out; sometimes because they were rushed into starting when they weren't ready, or they simply were not developed by a pro staff.

 

[HigSkin]

As everyone was kind of suspecting about Denver...

 

 

 

[skinzplay]

Is Bill Musgrave gonna stay on in Denver? If not, they'd better hire a real QB coach before they sign a QB, because no young QB will develop under Sullivan. Joseph put together one of the weakest coaching staffs in the league. Honestly, this is one of the first questions they ask you in the interview.........whose gonna populate your staff. If he had given me the names of the people that were ultimately brought along (many of whom have already been given walking papers), dude would've never been hired as HC.

[Est.1974]

1 hour ago, HigSkin said:

As everyone was kind of suspecting about Denver.

 

I don't know if they are serious over Cousins or not, but if they are I think they would quickly restructure Von Millers 18mil base salary and do something with Talibs 10mil plus salary. Easy done.

[goskins10]

34 minutes ago, skinzplay said:

Is Bill Musgrave gonna stay on in Denver? If not, they'd better hire a real QB coach before they sign a QB, because no young QB will develop under Sullivan. Joseph put together one of the weakest coaching staffs in the league. Honestly, this is one of the first questions they ask you in the interview.........whose gonna populate your staff. If he had given me the names of the people that were ultimately brought along (many of whom have already been given walking papers), dude would've never been hired as HC.

 

Historically you are right. However, as a new HC and Elway as the GM, he may have been given his opinion on assistants. Many 1st time HCs are not given free reign to select their own assistants. I have a few friends that are Denver fans - and while clearly it's a very, very small subset - they believe Elway is too much of a control freak. I can see that from an ex-player that was hugely successful. It's why guys like him are not typically successful. 

 

Anyway, just offering a different possibility. 

[skinzplay]

Gotcha. And if a guy like Joseph -- who they allegedly wanted to hire previously -- really wanted to finally be a HC, he might be more willing to take a few suggestions on staff members. Can't blow that first crack at the gig.

[Skinsinparadise]

3 hours ago, MartinC said:

 

No one is a sure thing. Literally no one.

 

Mayfield is not slow by the way. He’s got wheels. Meanwhile almost 70% of NFL snaps last year were out of shotgun.

 

He's slippery but he is indeed slow.  The fact that the dude is short AND slow but the dude still produces was even joked about in multiple fluff pieces on Mayfield.  Whenever I have a chance to see the vantage point of a QB in a game via camera angles, its not hard to see why height is so essential.  As Cooley recently said -- vision is everything for a QB -- if you are 6 foot are under its a tremendous disadvantage because you literally can't see things that other QBs can -- you can get away with it more in college because the O line-D line are not as big-tall.   That's why I think what he measures height wise is going to be obviously huge for him -- some suspect Mayfield is 6 foot or even a little shorter.  If that's true or not true, I think it will effect his draft stock.

 

As for no one being a sure thing, yeah of course.  My point on that front was in response to the idea that Scot said Mayfield is the best QB in the draft.  I like Scot but just because he says that doesn't move me.   It's interesting.  I saw his comments on it weeks back.  But it doesn't relax me to the idea of hey we got Mayfield -- lets let Kirk go and enjoy the ride.  So that's the context of my answer is to why I mentioned sure thing.  To me, Kirk is a sure thing at the very least to being a bonafide good QB.  

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2748122

NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah tweeted this week that he's been told Baker Mayfield will run in the "high 4.8s/low 4.9s" in the 40-yard dash. That's not a great time for a small (6'1", 215 lbs) quarterback. I also expect Mayfield's hand size will come in well below the NFL threshold of nine inches. These might seem like small details, but watch as scouts tear the Oklahoma quarterback apart because of them.

[fordranger76]

I think people are too easily skipping over salary cap implications with Kirk. If he gets 27 or 28 million a team like the Broncos will not and I repeat WILL NOT do that. That one player takes all of the cap that they have. You really believe thats what they will do? I know I know they can cut this guy and cut that guy and restructure blah blah blah. They won't cripple themselves salary wise with one player and zero upgrades anywhere else. Teams need depth. Depth costs money. I don't think this market is going to materialize with 32 teams like some of you seem to think. Might only be 3 or 4 teams max spending on him.

 

Real time view of the caps as they stand now.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/

[Skinsinparadise]

4 minutes ago, fordranger76 said:

Depth costs money. I don't think this market is going to materialize with 32 teams like some of you seem to think. Might only be 3 or 4 teams max spending on him.

 

That's possible.   As C. Russell said (and I mentioned it here) they are perhaps willing to chance it in FA because the teams that can challenge them in that sphere financially are the Jets and the Browns and chances in that case he might choose it here.

 

I still think its the guaranteed money that likely determines it more than anything else.   As an example, 27 million a year -- 55 guaranteed loses out to 25 million a year and 75 million guaranteed.

[fordranger76]

7 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

That's possible.   As C. Russell said (and I mentioned it here) they are perhaps willing to chance it in FA because the teams that can challenge them in that sphere financially are the Jets and the Browns and chances in that case he might choose it here.

 

I still think its the guaranteed money that likely determines it more than anything else.   As an example, 27 million a year -- 55 guaranteed loses out to 25 million a year and 75 million guaranteed.

Agreed. And this may be why the Browns are being mentioned with everything now. One look at their cap situation they can dump money into a contract any way they choose and may ultimately be what happens. I think Cousins is a Jet next year personally but time will tell.

[Thinking Skins]

34 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

That's possible.   As C. Russell said (and I mentioned it here) they are perhaps willing to chance it in FA because the teams that can challenge them in that sphere financially are the Jets and the Browns and chances in that case he might choose it here.

 

I still think its the guaranteed money that likely determines it more than anything else.   As an example, 27 million a year -- 55 guaranteed loses out to 25 million a year and 75 million guaranteed.

 

There's that, but there's also the fact that the Browns are still in only year one of this new structure. The same questions Kirk had about us should be raised about them. How will Hue's offense be set up with him? How will the front office get along? Will they value aged vets or young players? What will they do with the draft? how many rookies will they start? What kind of relationships will he have with them? 

 

I think the Jets have more structure and did a good job this year in what looked like a horrible year for them, so there's that but he'd still have to know that where they are as a team - players wise - is still lagging and needs work. Can he help that? And does he want his legacy to be leaving one mediocre to bad team for another mediocre to bad team? If that's the case and word gets out that we offered the same or more money ( guaranteed money) then his rep may take a hit because what wasn't about the money begins to look like it was, or about Bruce/Gruden. 

[goskins10]

33 minutes ago, fordranger76 said:

I think people are too easily skipping over salary cap implications with Kirk. If he gets 27 or 28 million a team like the Broncos will not and I repeat WILL NOT do that. That one player takes all of the cap that they have. You really believe thats what they will do? I know I know they can cut this guy and cut that guy and restructure blah blah blah. They won't cripple themselves salary wise with one player and zero upgrades anywhere else. Teams need depth. Depth costs money. I don't think this market is going to materialize with 32 teams like some of you seem to think. Might only be 3 or 4 teams max spending on him.

 

Real time view of the caps as they stand now.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/

 

Scoff if you want (referring to blah, blah, blah), but the money is there if they want it and it will not cripple them. Not even close. They have a lot of options. Several guys with huge CAP hits could be restructured to make room like Miller, Thomas and Talib. There are also guys like CJ Anderson who could be given an extension that pushes their CAP hit out.

 

Not to mention, and this is the one you seem to be completely ignoring, they could structure Kirk's contract so that the CAP hit this year is more like $16M to $19M. They do not need all their $26M+ remaining CAP just on Kirk. As @Skinsinparadise pointed out it's the guaranteed money, not so much th yearly salary. 

 

With all due respect, I believe you underestimating Denver's ability to be a player in a Kirk sweepstakes and overly dramatizing the impact of them making those moves. It all depends on if they believe a QB is all they need to make a SB run. If they do, the money is there and it will not cripple them at all.  

[goskins10]

4 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

 

There's that, but there's also the fact that the Browns are still in only year one of this new structure. The same questions Kirk had about us should be raised about them. How will Hue's offense be set up with him? How will the front office get along? Will they value aged vets or young players? What will they do with the draft? how many rookies will they start? What kind of relationships will he have with them? 

 

I think the Jets have more structure and did a good job this year in what looked like a horrible year for them, so there's that but he'd still have to know that where they are as a team - players wise - is still lagging and needs work. Can he help that? And does he want his legacy to be leaving one mediocre to bad team for another mediocre to bad team? If that's the case and word gets out that we offered the same or more money ( guaranteed money) then his rep may take a hit because what wasn't about the money begins to look like it was, or about Bruce/Gruden. 

 

Not directed at you, but using your post as a jump off - 

 

If I am Kirk's agent I want to maximize Kirk's contract. I know there is likely to be a bidding war unless the Redskins do the unthinkably awesome thing of placing te exclusive franchise tag. Assuming even bruce is not that ****ing stupid (I know, that's expecting a lot), how to get the best offers? Having my client mention he is fine going to the team with clearly the most resources should be good enough to put any team interested on notice to come big or stay home. Maybe he is telling the truth. He is willing to go to Cleveland. I have no idea. But at this point there are no contract offers - can't yet. He can still pick which ever contract he wants. He is not tied to the largest. 

 

 

[Vilandil Tasardur]

Why wouldn't the Broncos be happy to pay that contract to Kirk? It's not as if "not paying a QB" was part of their building model...they paid a QB the same percentage of the cap. After winning a super bowl, he retired. They aren't adverse to spending money on a QB, they had already done it. He's gone now though, and they haven't found another one worth it. If they do, of course they'll pay it; depth be damned. 

[fordranger76]

27 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

 

Scoff if you want (referring to blah, blah, blah), but the money is there if they want it and it will not cripple them. Not even close. They have a lot of options. Several guys with huge CAP hits could be restructured to make room like Miller, Thomas and Talib. There are also guys like CJ Anderson who could be given an extension that pushes their CAP hit out.

 

Not to mention, and this is the one you seem to be completely ignoring, they could structure Kirk's contract so that the CAP hit this year is more like $16M to $19M. They do not need all their $26M+ remaining CAP just on Kirk. As @Skinsinparadise pointed out it's the guaranteed money, not so much th yearly salary. 

 

With all due respect, I believe you underestimating Denver's ability to be a player in a Kirk sweepstakes and overly dramatizing the impact of them making those moves. It all depends on if they believe a QB is all they need to make a SB run. If they do, the money is there and it will not cripple them at all.  

Here is the thing. You are assuming these players would go for a restructuring of contracts. Can they? Sure. Will they? Who knows. Not all players are big team players when restructuring talks come around. These guys have won a super bowl. They got their ring. I promise you they want their money now because they know they can get it. I could be wrong of course but I am just looking at the typical modern NFL player. Greed is good.

 

In regards to the contract. Lets take a look at what Stafford is making and the cap hit for him and the Lions. 26,500,000 in 2018. 29,500,000 in 2019. Derrick Carr is going to be making 25,000,000 for 2018. 22,500,000 in 2019. What makes you think Kirk is going to go to 16m or 19m? Those are the last two contracts on the books for QB's. Cousins is expected to have a Stafford deal or better. No way they construct that contract to be only a 16m to 19m hit. That would blow up their cap to 29 or 30 million dollars in the future years if he gets anywhere near Stafford money because they would have to backload all of it.

 

If they (Denver) do indeed sign Cousins I would suggest that in the very least he makes 25,000,000 on the cap hit. With their current situation a lot of folks will have to take pay cuts or released outright for it to work. I am sure it could happen but with what I outlined its not very likely IMO. The Jets and Browns however could launch a down right contractual assault on the senses for Cousins that would make everyone's head spin and I do believe that to be the scenario. Time will tell on all of this. At the end of the day I think we are all going to sit back and say what were they thinking about one team be it the Skins or someone else.