Will Cousins Play For The Skins In 2018

[Paul Cumberland]

15 minutes ago, fordranger76 said:

If we cut Terrell McClain it will be a cap hit of -2,312,500 if its pre June 1st. After June 1st its a dead cap of 4,500,500 for 2018 and 2,500,000 for 2019. Only get a savings of 187,500 dollars. That is one guy we should not cut because he is going to ding the cap. At least not this year. We need every dollar of it if resigning Cousins.

 

Which site did you use for this?  According to OverTheCap.com (OTC), if McClain is a cut this year, we pick up 1m in cap with 3.75m in dead cap as his current cap number is 4.75m for 2018.  But even assuming OTC is correct, it's hard to see him being a cap causality for the pittance of only picking up 1m in cap, though perhaps it would be enough to get our kicker signed..

 

I've been playing around with the cap calculator on OTC.  Have cut a bunch of injury-signed players that wouldn't have been on the team otherwise that have 0 dead cap consequences, signed Kirk to a LTD with a 26m cap hit in 2018, signed ZB, Spencer Long and a few others.  Was even able to sign Breeland to a LTD with the thought of Norman being a June 1 cut.  Really hard juggling numbers there and having much left for draft picks and injury signings, which we all know we'll need.  That said, if Norman is a June 1 cut designee, we'd have enough for draft picks and the like, though that money doesn't actually go on our books till June 2 and due to draft slotting, we normally have drafted players signed way ahead of that.  I suppose there's still the possibility of renegotiations or possibly restructuring like we did back in the Vinny days where we push cap consequences out to later years, but if we feel our window to win is now, perhaps that's the way to go as much as I personally detest it from a cap standpoint..

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

1 minute ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

I've said for a long time that Alex Smith will be our QB if Cousins is gone.

 

However, I'd add that the Browns are actually well placed to go for Smith. Trade a couple of picks for him from the second/third round, trade back from one of their firsts to acquire some picks back. Draft a QB to take over in a couple of years, and still have enough ammo left to purge both the draft and FA.

Alex Smith is going to get 20M+ out of somebody.

 

It would be a damn shame if we give up draft capital and 20M+ per season for him.  34 years old, new system with less weapons and no running game.  Yeah, it pretty much has the McNabb scenario written all over it.

[Est.1974]

Just now, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Alex Smith is going to get 20M+ out of somebody.

 

It would be a damn shame if we give up draft capital and 20M+ per season for him.  34 years old, new system with less weapons and no running game.  Yeah, it pretty much has the McNabb scenario written all over it.

 

He is without doubt. The Chiefs are potentially going to screw someone over big time.

[Fat Stupid Loser]

5 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Alex Smith is going to get 20M+ out of somebody.

 

It would be a damn shame if we give up draft capital and 20M+ per season for him.  34 years old, new system with less weapons and no running game.  Yeah, it pretty much has the McNabb scenario written all over it.

We will. We can't win with a lesser QB and won't pay for one we can win with, whether that is Kirk or Smith. Or if we do pay for Smith, then we are bigger idiots than even I think.  SMH.

[Mooka]

16 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Alex Smith is going to get 20M+ out of somebody.

 

It would be a damn shame if we give up draft capital and 20M+ per season for him.  34 years old, new system with less weapons and no running game.  Yeah, it pretty much has the McNabb scenario written all over it.

 

With that 2nd round pick we gave up too.

 

Alex Smith is a huge no unless he hits FA.

 

Gruden's system also hamstings one of the things Smith does very well; controlling the LOS, setting the blocking, audibles, etc. 

 

[fordranger76]

35 minutes ago, Paul Cumberland said:

 

Which site did you use for this? 

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/washington-redskins/terrell-mcclain-7784/ Seems to be more accurate but I dunno.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, markmills67 said:

We should have Traded cousin's last year if he wasn't signing a LTD, we could have gone with McCoy and probably got a top 5 draft pick this year and draft a QB, I said last year that we would end up with between 7-9 wins and a mid 1st round pick were all the best QB's will be gone. This FO are useless, I wouldn't trust them to run me a bath never mind an NFL team. 

 

HTTR 

 

The run me a bath is a classic line, got me rolling. 

 

I was just listening to Russell, who to me has been on the hottest gossip streak for the last year or so.  He thinks they let Kirk hit FA.  They think with SF and the Rams out of the running the bidding might not get outrageous.  Denver doesn't have a ton of cap room.  The Jets-Browns have plenty of cap room but they'd risk that Kirk wouldn't choose them.

 

Other tidbits, according to Russell:  Dan is actually one of pro-Kirk guys in the building.  Bruce isn't a Kirk guy.   As for Jay, Russell didn't really spell it out aside from he's a big believer in Colt.   I'd guess based on other things said in the past, Jay has pushed for Kirk but doesn't think its the end of the world if its Colt. 

 

Going back to Dan, Russell's narrative is that Dan really started to dig Kirk in a big way last Spring.   I am guessing what happened was when the negotiations got off to a rocky start in 2017, Dan got involved.  We heard about that at the time.   And Dan dealing with Kirk directly perhaps led him to start to dig him as a person.  If Russell's narrative is correct.

 

If that narrative is true then Dan was part of the problem for most of this but may have turned the other way, Bruce has consistently likely been part of the problem.  By problem meaning if you want to keep Kirk. 

 

It's been noticeable that Kirk in his two long narratives about the contract has more or less danced around Bruce.  He's been nice but he isn't showering the dude with praise aside from complementing him for coming to see him in Michigan.  He's been nice about Bruce but not effusive.  With Dan, we got in the first interview on this about how he wants to make him happy-dance, citing the GB game -- and he was complementary.  And in the Q & A, Kirk goes Dan has been phenomenal.  The beat reporters likewise in the past played up animosity here and there relating to Bruce and Kirk's agent.  I don't recall hearing anything like that about Schaffer or Dan. 

 

Regardless, one refrain we keep hearing from Kirk and beat guys talking to his camp is -- Kirk wants to win and wants to play for an organization built to win.  In his Q & A he even praised how the Steelers built their team.  The Steelers FO structure-team is night and day from this FO.  Does he think this FO can build a winner? 

 

The odd thing here is if Dan sincerely likes Kirk, it doesn't sound like he can charm him to stay put.  Because Kirk's bottom line just might be the set up of this FO.  And the idea that Bruce has perhaps impinged on working out a deal -- puts the whole FO structure in play because the contract negotiation itself is a living example of the FO in motion.   And if he's a FA, he'd have a chance to do apples to apples comparisons.  And I am doubting the Redskins FO looks great if he does so.

[Est.1974]

50 minutes ago, Paul Cumberland said:

signed Kirk to a LTD with a 26m cap hit in 2018

 

a LTD for Kirk will hit the cap under 20mil in 2018. 

10 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

The odd thing here is if Dan sincerely likes Kirk, it doesn't sound like he can charm him to stay put.  Because Kirk's bottom line just might be the set up of this FO.

 

If Dan wants Kirk that badly changes would be made.

[MartinC]

2 hours ago, goskins10 said:

 

I am not a fan of trading away any resources if they let Kirk walk. If they do let him walk, then just live with what you have. Roll with Colt (yes, I know he is a disaster, that's kind of the point.). Draft someone this year or/and next to be the long term. 2019 we should have a pretty high draft pick. 

 

I just do not see the logic in replacing Kirk with Alex Smith who is older and not as talented but will cost not just at least 1 draft pick but considerable CAP space also. His salary and roster bonuses are $17M. Colt is $3.6M. 

 

That all makes perfect sense from the point of view of a fan - at least a sensible fan who is thinking long term!

 

It does not make as much sense if you are Jay Gruden on the hot seat (arguably) and probably not going to survive another sub .500 season. I think if you start Colt you are pretty much guaranteeing a sub .500 season! With Alex Smith I would make a case he is AT LEAST as physically talented as Cousins and arguably more. I think he would be a great fit for Gruden's system and would likely put you in the frame for a circa 9 win season - maybe more if we stay healthy, improve the defense and put some more talent out there at receiver. Just like Kirk (IMO).

 

So I don't think the comparison is Smith to Colt - its Smith to Kirk. Smith at $17M or Kirk at (say) $28M? I get the draft pick that we have to send (and I certainly would not trade a 1st round pick or maybe even a 2nd round pick = but I'd be all over sending a 3rd which could maybe become a 2nd based on performance). Meanwhile I would draft someone as well - maybe at #13 if say Mayfield was still there but I would not feel the need to trade up into the top 10 to get a guy if we had traded for Smith.

 

Now this is where an actual GM comes in with the long term thinking and if they decided to roll with Colt and a rookie saying to Gruden your safe this year. This year is a mulligan as we rebuild and then reboot at QB. But I don't think many of us believe that kind of thinking is in play here.

 

19 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

 

a LTD for Kirk will hit the cap under 20mil in 2018. 

 

Highly highly unlikely. It will be very difficult to structure a deal at the kind of money we are looking at for Kirk that has that low a cap hit. If you did it would be a LOT higher cap hit at the back end and put is in a world of trouble.

 

Cousins deal is going to come in over Carrs deal - his cap hit is $25M in 2018.

[Skinsinparadise]

20 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

 

a LTD for Kirk will hit the cap under 20mil in 2018. 

 

If Dan wants Kirk that badly changes would be made.

 

Russell didn't say Dan wants Kirk badly but he has gotten to dig him in 2017.  And it doesn't sound like Bruce shares that take.  If Russell is correct. 

 

3 minutes ago, MartinC said:

With Alex Smith I would make a case he is AT LEAST as physically talented as Cousins and arguably more. I think he would be a great fit for Gruden's system and would likely put you in the frame for a circa 9 win season - maybe more if we stay healthy, improve the defense and put some more talent out there at receiver. Just like Kirk (IMO).

 

I personally hate the idea of trading for Alex Smith.  But I agree with this point.  Smith is Jay's best shot of surviving next season.

 

5 minutes ago, MartinC said:

maybe at #13 if say Mayfield was still there but I would not feel the need to trade up into the top 10 to get a guy if we had traded for Smith.

 

Right now, I am guessing short of Mayfield bombing in the Senior bowl or measuring at under 6 foot -- he's unlikely to fall to #13.  I can see why Finlay (according to someone here who posted on it) said today he hears they are unlikely to go for Mayfield but he's hearing a lot of chatter about Rudolph.  Rudolph is likely to still be there at #13.

 

9 minutes ago, MartinC said:

 

Now this is where an actual GM comes in with the long term thinking and if they decided to roll with Colt and a rookie saying to Gruden your safe this year. This year is a mulligan as we rebuild and then reboot at QB. But I don't think many of us believe that kind of thinking is in play here.

 

  

That's the sad part.  It's hard for some of us to trust the process because we don't believe the process with this organization is sound.  

[Est.1974]

19 minutes ago, MartinC said:

Highly highly unlikely. It will be very difficult to structure a deal at the kind of money we are looking at for Kirk that has that low a cap hit. If you did it would be a LOT higher cap hit at the back end and put is in a world of trouble.

 

Cousins deal is going to come in over Carrs deal - his cap hit is $25M in 2018.

 

Staffords cap hit in 2017 was 16.5mil

 

50mil bonus spread over five years plus change from other elements. Cap hit gradually rolls out to 30mil by 2021. Reasonable by that stage.

[Est.1974]

28 minutes ago, MartinC said:

With Alex Smith I would make a case he is AT LEAST as physically talented as Cousins and arguably more. I think he would be a great fit for Gruden's system and would likely put you in the frame for a circa 9 win season - maybe more

 

I agree with this. Smith is a good short term fit. Hate the idea of what the trade cost could be though.

[Paul Cumberland]

19 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

 

Staffords cap hit in 2017 was 16.5mil

 

50mil bonus spread over five years plus change from other elements. Cap hit gradually rolls out to 30mil by 2021. Reasonable by that stage.

 

Stafford signed an extension where it's easier to be creative with % impact on the cap.  His per year average contract value is 27m though his fully guaranteed base salary was only 1m in 2017.  You can see the % of cap hits he will have in the following table.  When I came up with the 26m cap figure in 2018 on a LTD for Kirk I was trying to put hard numbers down on what it might possibly take to get him signed.  140m over 5 years which is a slight step above Stafford's deal.

 

Current Contract

Year	Age	Base Salary (Guaranteed)	Bonuses				Cap Number	Cap %		Dead Money & Cap Savings Cut (pre-June 1)Cut (post-June 1)Trade (pre-June 1)Trade (post-June 1)RestructureExtension
			Prorated	Roster	Workout	Other
Total		$61,000,000	$55,500,000	$38,000,000	$2,500,000	$0	$157,000,000
2017	29	$1,000,000 $1,000,000	$15,500,000	$0	$0	$0	$16,500,000	9.9%
2018	30	$9,500,000 $9,500,000	$10,000,000	$6,500,000	$500,000	$0	$26,500,000	14.9%		$49,500,000	($23,000,000)
2019	31	$13,500,000	$10,000,000	$5,500,000	$500,000	$0	$29,500,000	15.5%		$30,000,000	($500,000)
2020	32	$15,000,000	$10,000,000	$6,000,000	$500,000	$0	$31,500,000	15.8%		$20,000,000	$11,500,000
2021	33	$9,500,000	$10,000,000	$10,000,000	$500,000	$0	$30,000,000	--		$10,000,000	$20,000,000
2022	34	$12,500,000	$0	$10,000,000	$500,000	$0	$23,000,000	--		$0	$23,000,000

[ThomasRoane]

18 hours ago, bowhunter said:

The QB from Memphis Ferguson seems to have a lot of pluses (mobile, good arm, 63% accuracy, throws well on roll outs) and will quite probably make it to round 2. So it would be possible to strengthen a weakness on the DL with Vea in rd 1, add Freguson on Day 2. Let Colt start and groom Fergy to be a Mid season starter.

 

No offense, but I think the mark of a good NFL QB is the ability to be able to function in the pocket.  If you can stay ahead of the sticks then play action with a rollout is great.  But there will come a time (vs a good defense) when a defense will make your guy stay in the pocket and force him to read a defense and complete a 3rd and long.  If a QB can't master that then he won't have a future in the NFL. 

 

Another drawback with a "mobile" QB is that those guys on the other side of the field are going to do what they can to knock that guy out of the game.  It's not personal.  It's just if they can put your starting QB on the sidelines then that's half the battle.  You have DE's now that run faster than QBs.  If my son were an NFL QB I'd counsel him to run sparingly and even then get down quickly!

[skinny21]

22 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

 

I agree with this. Smith is a good short term fit. Hate the idea of what the trade cost could be though.

I hate it even more since we’d be giving up 2 picks for the qb spot (one to draft the younger guy).  

 

My preference, if we don’t/can’t sign Kirk to a LTD, is to go with Colt and a later round pick and shoot for a qb next year.  I think SIP is right though (and others echoed it) - the PR angle wouldn’t work.  

 

Moving forward, aside from extensions for Scherff, Crowder and Smith, just keep focusing on the draft so you have a future without Reed, Norman, Williams and Kerrigan, you have more money to re-sign your younger guys that have proven themselves and bring in FAs.  We’d have to get really lucky finding a qb, but I think we have a core to the roster that is younger and/or signed for a while.  

[Est.1974]

11 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

 

My preference, if we don’t/can’t sign Kirk to a LTD, is to go with Colt and a later round pick and shoot for a qb next year.  I think SIP is right though (and others echoed it) - the PR angle wouldn’t work.  

 

Id go with Colt if the plan is tank at best. I agree with SIP too and I'd be curious on Grudens stance on that, although he may be more comfortable than we think with him than we know.

[MartinC]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Right now, I am guessing short of Mayfield bombing in the Senior bowl or measuring at under 6 foot -- he's unlikely to fall to #13.  I can see why Finlay (according to someone here who posted on it) said today he hears they are unlikely to go for Mayfield but he's hearing a lot of chatter about Rudolph.  Rudolph is likely to still be there at #13.

 

This is a convo for a different thread but Rudolph at #13 would be be a hell of a reach IMO. He has got a so so arm and his accuracy was inconsistent. He put up insane numbers in a system design to do exactly that. But the tape is not that impressive IMO. I would not pick him anywhere in the first round. But then I don't get a vote.

 

Mayfield is listed at 6' 1". Thats generous. I think he measure in at 6 foot even at best.

 

Now I don't care about that. But its way outside the NFL prototype for the position. It will take a leap of faith for an NFL GM to pick him top 10. I would (but my job is not on the line) and it could well happen - but I think there is at least a chance he is there at #13. if he is and we pass ..

[ThomasRoane]

50 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

 

I agree with this. Smith is a good short term fit. Hate the idea of what the trade cost could be though.

 

If you can't make a deep run in the playoffs with Smith (and his history does not reflect the ability to do so) then what's the point?  The Chiefs have a much better situation as far as skills players.  We all saw what happened when Kelce went out.  He was lost.  We saw what happened to Kirk when his best weapon (Reed) went out.  He threw for over 4K to a bunch of average players (minus Christ Thompson). 

[Est.1974]

31 minutes ago, Paul Cumberland said:

Stafford signed an extension where it's easier to be creative with % impact on the cap. 

 

I disagree because he carried over 5.5mil of his previous contract bonus prorated into his 2017 cap hit of 16.5mil. On Kirk, I could see a voidable 6th year out there to ease the burden of a 140mil plus deal though. Either way, I believe year one cap hit should drop under 20.

[Skinsinparadise]

10 minutes ago, MartinC said:

 

This is a convo for a different thread but Rudolph at #13 would be be a hell of a reach IMO. He has got a so so arm and his accuracy was inconsistent. He put up insane numbers in a system design to do exactly that. But the tape is not that impressive IMO. I would not pick him anywhere in the first round. But then I don't get a vote.

 

Mayfield is listed at 6' 1". Thats generous. I think he measure in at 6 foot even at best.

 

Now I don't care about that. But its way outside the NFL prototype for the position. It will take a leap of faith for an NFL GM to pick him top 10. I would (but my job is not on the line) and it could well happen - but I think there is at least a chance he is there at #13. if he is and we pass ..

 

Seems like on Mayfield is a bit of a love-hate prospect but guys like Albert Breer who claim to be talking to scouts-personnel types -- seems to think there are enough who love him that he might be picked top 10.  Breer isn't the only one with that point of view.  I guess will see.   In some mocks, i see him top 10 right now.  All speculation now since its early in the process.

 

Yeah Rudolph is a polarizing prospect too for different reasons.  He looks the part.  Big dude. But he played in the spread, has questionable accuracy and one heck of a supporting cast that likely helped inflate his numbers. 

 

Having said that, I recall Finlay wasn't that far off last off season as for draft talk in the building -- so if he says he's hearing some talk there about Rudolph maybe there is something to it.   We are about to see Rudolph showcased -- ditto Mayfield in the Senior Bowl -- should be interesting.

 

Personally, I am skeptical of most Big 12 QBs.  They play in spread systems against atrocious defenses.  And most of them don't translate to the NFL.  The last Oklahoma State QB with big numbers was Weeden -- and he's another Big 12 flop.

 

Back to Kirk.  I'd feel a lot better letting him go if they had a shot at Rosen or Darnold but that's not happening.

 

 

[skinzplay]

For some reason, I'm not really impressed with the crop of QBs coming out this year. I think most of those being touted as early 1st rounders are fool's gold.

[HigSkin]

The Finley conversation also included a little bit about Josh Allen too which is a guy you'd have to draft at #13.  I don't think a guy like Rudolph would be a 1st round selection but draft position was not discussed.

 

What's interesting is if Cleveland or Denver happens to sign Kirk, that takes a team off the board ahead of us for QB's and maybe a guy like Allen drops.

[Paul Cumberland]

15 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

[Stafford] carried over 5.5mil of his previous contract bonus prorated into his 2017 cap hit of 16.5mil. On Kirk, I could see a voidable 6th year out there to ease the burden of a 140mil plus deal though. Either way, I believe year one cap hit should drop under 20.

 

Your 1st sentence actually proves my point about being able to be creative when it's an extension and not an outright FA signing.  The voidable years is an interesting one though.  Perhaps include that on a longer term contract ala what Brees currently has.  But to be able to get under a 20m cap hit in Kirk's 1st year on a LTD I think is a bit of a stretch, at best...  and though I'd love to see it working out like that, I highly doubt it would occur - with us or elsewhere...

[Fat Stupid Loser]

48 minutes ago, skinzplay said:

For some reason, I'm not really impressed with the crop of QBs coming out this year. I think most of those being touted as early 1st rounders are fool's gold.

They hype the best QBs every year, whether they are good or not. They are just the best that year. 

[skinzplay]

I wish I had some kind of eye for QBs. I love it when talented scouts with that kind of eye can zero in on a kid in the 3rd - 4th round, pair him with a damn good QB coach for development, and see him take off. I'm hoping there are some kids like that in this year's or next year's pool. Unfortunately, I didn't watch much college football at all this season, except for the two playoff games.