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Will Cousins Play For The Skins In 2018


Veryoldschool

Will Cousins Be Back In 2018?  

206 members have voted

  1. 1. Will Cousins play for the Skins in 2018?

    • Yes, as part of a LTD.
      51
    • Yes, on a tag for a year
      43
    • No, the Skins tag him and manage to trade him
      30
    • No, the Skins let Cousins walk and he signs a LTD with another team
      82

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  • Poll closed on 12/22/2017 at 08:02 PM

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24 minutes ago, Paul Cumberland said:

 

Actually, Stafford's deal includes 92m in guarantees of which 60.5m was the signing bonus.

 

Per OverTheCap.com:

 

Matt Stafford signed a five year, $135 million contract extension with the Detroit Lions on August 29, 2017. These contract details come from a report by Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk.  Stafford received $92 million guaranteed, $60.5 million of which is fully guaranteed at signing. The guarantee includes a $50 million signing bonus and his 2017 and 2018 base salaried. If Stafford is on the Lions roster on the 3rd day of the 2018 league year a $6.5 million 2018 roster bonus,  $5.5 million 2019 roster bonus and his 2019 base salary will all become fully guaranteed. If on the roster the 3rd day of the 2019 league year a $6 million roster bonus due in 2020 will become fully guaranteed. There are also annual workout bonuses of $500,000.

 

I read that it was $60.5 million fully guaranteed over the first 3 years and Luck's was $47 million fully guaranteed over the first 3 years. If so, Kirk could be asking for 17 million more than that over the first 3 years. That's nuts, even if it shaves a million or two off of the annual salary.

23 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

 

Structured so the contract has the first 3 years ($26 per year) guaranteed for how ever many years they want to make it.  Could be 5-6 for example with more money each of those added years, not necessarily guaranteed in those added years.

 

Some team is gonna offer that if not the Skins...

 

That's true, I was assuming it was actually a 3 year contract but misread.

21 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

I think you, maybe accidentally, hit the key part... another team is less likely to make that kind of offer, whereas we know certain teams can (and likely will?) outbid us on the annual average.  If we did that, but shaved off a couple-several mil off the annual salary (from what other teams might offer), it's a win, win for us.  We keep our franchise qb and save enough money to be slightly more active in FA.  

 

Giving anyone $78 million fully guaranteed over 3 years is not a win for anyone but Kirk. That's a crazy amount of money considering what the other top paid QBs got in fully guaranteed money over the first 3 years. I don't see any way the Skins are willing to throw that much fully guaranteed money to him, and I don't see any way another team will because they have no clue how good he'll be with them. If he ends up being a guy who was just good in one system and he struggles a lot they are in the hole no matter what. It's not like he's won multiple playoff games or a SB or something. There are still question marks with his game.

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Cousins durability has to count as something and worth a premium.  You could have a Tony Romo at $25 million but missing numerous games due to injuries making his pay per game much higher.  Cousins hasn’t missed one game yet.  Carr missed some games this year....not sure about Stafford.  At the very least being durable allows a team to carry just two quarterbacks to save money like the Redskins did this year with just Cousins and McCoy.  Durability is the big reason why I think the Redskins need to shop Jordan Reed and get rid of him.  The guy is made of glass and not worth paying a huge salary to.   Just saying.  

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1 hour ago, mistertim said:

 

That's an insane amount of fully guaranteed money, especially for a 3 year contract. Insane. Matt Stafford's blockbuster deal included a record $60.5 million fully guaranteed, and that was a 5 year deal. Luck's was $47 million fully guaranteed and that was a 6 year deal. So that means (if that number is correct) Kirk wants literally 18 million more fully guaranteed than the next highest guaranteed player for on a 2 year shorter contract. I don't see anyone willing to pay that amount for him, Skins or other teams. 

 

I actually think other teams would balk at that even more than the Skins. They have no idea how he'll do in their system or with their personnel. That huge amount guaranteed means that if he goes there and sucks, oh well, they're still in the toilet for a ton of money even if they want to cut him.

 

Why is it insane to guarantee $78 over three years going forward when you will have paid over $80 for 16, 17, and 18 if he signs the franchise tag.

 

This is what no one seems to grasp. Kirk is actually sitting on year three of a three year $80+ million year. His agent certainly understands that. So, if you are going to sign him long term, you need to beat what he already has gotten.

 

From his agents perspective, $78 million guaranteed over the next three years is actually a pretty big discount to the team since his number will be lower than last year's while the cap is going up.

 

The Redskins have set the market here. Kirk knows precisely what he is worth because he has been paid that over the past two seasons.

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39 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Slightly off the current topic, but on topic:

 

I see some here (this isn’t a slight, for the record) that get frustrated when people try to look at Cousins in a Vacuum. It’s a team game is a common retort. Absolutely correct. But it seems as if a lot of the same people who get frustrated with those who try to view this whole “is he worth it” situation in a Vacuum then want to do the same thing with his contract. 

 

“He’s worth whatever they need to pay him. He’s the best QB the team has had in a long, long time.”

 

 

But the other side is missing something, too. If we let Cousins walk and go with someone else, will the money saved help the team sign someone to fill the gap and improve another position with at least one quality player each season? If not, what’s the point in moving on? 

 

 

Absolutely everyone gets that. You are providing no great insight here.

 

Yes, if you let Cousins go, you can spend his money elsewhere while you look for a QB that is as good as him and who you will pay the same amount to......

 

Every rebuilding project in the NFL starts with the same step: Find a quality QB.

 

There is a very good reason that no QB as good as Cousins has ever hit the free agent market at this age before. Teams hold onto to any remotely good QB like grim death.

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2 minutes ago, Lombardi's_kid_brother said:

There is a very good reason that no QB as good as Cousins has ever hit the free agent market at this age before. Teams hold onto to any remotely good QB like grim death.

They typically identify early on whether they want to hold on to the QB and proceed accordingly as well.  Only the Redskins played the dangerous game of franchise tagging.

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16 minutes ago, Lombardi's_kid_brother said:

 

Why is it insane to guarantee $78 over three years going forward when you will have paid over $80 for 16, 17, and 18 if he signs the franchise tag.

 

This is what no one seems to grasp. Kirk is actually sitting on year three of a three year $80+ million year. His agent certainly understands that. So, if you are going to sign him long term, you need to beat what he already has gotten.

 

From his agents perspective, $78 million guaranteed over the next three years is actually a pretty big discount to the team since his number will be lower than last year's while the cap is going up.

 

The Redskins have set the market here. Kirk knows precisely what he is worth because he has been paid that over the past two seasons.

 

I don't see any way that $78 million fully guaranteed is actually "market value" for Kirk. He'd be asking for a LTD with a much higher guaranteed 3 year amount than the most recent blockbuster QB deals. I doubt other teams would say "Well, the Skins will have payed him $80 million over the last couple of years and this year, so I guess that's around what we have to pay". They'll look at other recent QB contracts, look at his production and his tape, and decide based on those things what they think he's worth. If he sits firm at that much guaranteed money I doubt a team in the league would pay it.

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4 minutes ago, Lombardi's_kid_brother said:

 

Why is it insane to guarantee $78 over three years going forward when you will have paid over $80 for 16, 17, and 18 if he signs the franchise tag.

 

This is what no one seems to grasp. Kirk is actually sitting on year three of a three year $80+ million year. His agent certainly understands that. So, if you are going to sign him long term, you need to beat what he already has gotten.

 

From his agents perspective, $78 million guaranteed over the next three years is actually a pretty big discount to the team since his number will be lower than last year's while the cap is going up.

 

The Redskins have set the market here. Kirk knows precisely what he is worth because he has been paid that over the past two seasons.

 

Fully agree with your point. The only side issue I'd raise his ~$80M guaranteed over a 3 year span (potentially) came at the risk of getting hurt or significantly regressing any of those seasons. He's taken on more risk, bet on himself and therefore is reaping the reward. 

 

I'd also add that comparing the Stafford and Luck deals are not accurate to this situatoin. 

 

Stafford's deal was done this past off season, but it was also an extension. That's very different in terms of leverage. The player is financially motivated to get off the one year deal and negotiate in larger dollars. 

 

Luck's deal again was an extension and was done one year before the Stafford deal. It also had a $87 million in injury guarantees, which is very high even by today's standards. Given it was 2 years from this current market, an extension and created with some unique provisions It's really not that applicable. 

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16 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

They typically identify early on whether they want to hold on to the QB and proceed accordingly as well.  Only the Redskins played the dangerous game of franchise tagging.

 

And as Tandler pointed out in the article he just wrote which I posted here, they didn't plan well for alternatives.    I think the alternatives is what makes the situation IMO to be even more frustrating.

 

Another FA signing:  all you have to do is look at contracts being doled out right now for QBs to realize a plan B in FA would likely still command paying a QB in the 20s -- so you are likely going a peg lower at QB for essentially saving yourself 5-6 million.   So the whole look at all we do with the windfall of that money -- doesn't really play into this scene in all likelihood.

 

The Draft:  based on their position in the draft they are likely either getting the 4th-5th most regarded QB in the draft or they have to trade up and lose more draft capital.  So either way its an opportunity cost to upgrade the rest of the roster in the draft because of draft capital spent on QB (draft capital IMO is way more important than FA capital).  And with all of that you can easily get the pick wrong -- drafting QBs especially outside of the top 10 is a crap shoot.

 

Trading For A Veteran:  My least favorite option.  You get older at QB in all likelihood, you go a step down in all likelihood AND you lost draft capital to upgrade the rest of your roster.

 

Colt McCoy:  He's only getting paid 3 million but is a FA next season.  I don't have much faith in the dude.  I've already explained why.   

 

As to the let Kirk go crowd among the the ones who explain we can't afford him and talk up the bounty of signings we will make when he's gone, etc.  To me, the only option that plays fully into that argument is Colt's the guy.  Otherwise, in FA you are unlikely to gain a big bounty of money.  And the other options make it harder not easier to build the rest of your roster via the draft.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Colt McCoy:  He's only getting paid 3 million but is a FA next season.  I don't have much faith in the dude.  I've already explained why.   

 

Among the let Kirk go crowd among the the ones who explain we can't afford him and talk up the bounty of signings we will make when he's gone, etc.  To me, the only option that plays fully into that argument is Colt's the guy.  Otherwise, in FA you are unlikely to gain a big bounty of money.  And the other options make it harder not easier to build the rest of your roster via the draft.

 

 

The "team control" aspect of McCoy is interesting to consider. As you point out, he's a FA after 2018. So, let's play the unlikely scenario where he comes in and actually does a great job. Hooray for Jay...he's vindicated and proves that he has a very QB-friendly (potentially QB-agnostic) system. Hooray for Bruce and Dan as they played the game of chicken and won. But...

 

...whoops, now we have to do this entire song and dance again with Colt McCoy who would have just put up nearly 4,000 yards and 25 TDs. It seems like once again we'd be banking on Colt to do adequately but not great or we'd have to sign him before the season. 

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4 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

The "team control" aspect of McCoy is interesting to consider. As you point out, he's a FA after 2018. So, let's play the unlikely scenario where he comes in and actually does a great job. Hooray for Jay...he's vindicated and proves that he has a very QB-friendly (potentially QB-agnostic) system. Hooray for Bruce and Dan as they played the game of chicken and won. But...

 

...whoops, now we have to do this entire song and dance again with Colt McCoy who would have just put up nearly 4,000 yards and 25 TDs. It seems like once again we'd be banking on Colt to do adequately but not great or we'd have to sign him before the season. 

 

Yeah, agree, we've covered that in the last off season.  The irony of Colt shining in his one year is then all of a sudden we got another dude who will likely command a 20 million plus contract.

 

I don't see any easy end game where the team ends up with a cheap QB who is good over the long haul.  Unless they strike gold in the draft.

 

For me I hate every Plan B but just to different degrees.  If I had to pick my poison it would be seeing if Jay loves anyone in the draft and if so and they have to trade up for that guy so be it. 

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8 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I don't see any way that $78 million fully guaranteed is actually "market value" for Kirk. He'd be asking for a LTD with a much higher guaranteed 3 year amount than the most recent blockbuster QB deals. I doubt other teams would say "Well, the Skins will have payed him $80 million over the last couple of years and this year, so I guess that's around what we have to pay". They'll look at other recent QB contracts, look at his production and his tape, and decide based on those things what they think he's worth. If he sits firm at that much guaranteed money I doubt a team in the league would pay it.

 

The 'most recent' deals are only partially applicable. It's real tough to compare because a 'top ten' caliber QB hasn't really hit the market outside of Peyton Manning and using those numbers are just so outdated they aren't very relevant. 

 

I know you want to look at the Stafford or Luck deal and use that as the floor, but remember both were extensions where the players and teams both had leverage. The player wanted to avoid going into the final year of their contact, wanted more money up front and the teams wanted to avoid what the Skins are going through. This is very different in Kirk's agent has most of the leverage. 

 

As it stands unless the Skins offer an insane deal there will be no LTD before free agency. I see Allen/Snyder have 3 options: 

 

1 - Offer something with ~$80M guaranteed - This is just them having to overbid to beat free agency. 

2 - Tag him - either one will have the same end result. Transition might have him gone for 2018, Franchise will be 2019.  

3 - Let him hit free agency - market will set his price, but it's doubtful he'll be coming back. 

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4 hours ago, HigSkin said:

Media guys like Finley, Keim and Tandler seem to think it's gonna take some term contract with first 3 years guaranteed at $78 mil

 

Adding the extra years gtd money to 3 years and trying to skim a few mil off the top to say 78mil, bringing down the average per year, seems the way to go. The extra years assurance might tempt them to bite on the deal. Bit trickier on the short term cap doing that opposed to a 5/6 year deal.

 

Not sure we have the brains to think that far outside the box.

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1 hour ago, Unbias said:

 

The 'most recent' deals are only partially applicable. It's real tough to compare because a 'top ten' caliber QB hasn't really hit the market outside of Peyton Manning and using those numbers are just so outdated they aren't very relevant. 

 

I know you want to look at the Stafford or Luck deal and use that as the floor, but remember both were extensions where the players and teams both had leverage. The player wanted to avoid going into the final year of their contact, wanted more money up front and the teams wanted to avoid what the Skins are going through. This is very different in Kirk's agent has most of the leverage. 

 

As it stands unless the Skins offer an insane deal there will be no LTD before free agency. I see Allen/Snyder have 3 options: 

 

1 - Offer something with ~$80M guaranteed - This is just them having to overbid to beat free agency. 

2 - Tag him - either one will have the same end result. Transition might have him gone for 2018, Franchise will be 2019.  

3 - Let him hit free agency - market will set his price, but it's doubtful he'll be coming back. 

 

I'd think all of that (the fact that those other guys are extensions and not FA) would make other teams even more reluctant to give Kirk that much fully guaranteed money. Those guys are known quantities on their teams and in their systems; those teams know and feel that they can be successful with them. Kirk in another system with other players is an unknown. He might do great, he might flop or just be completely mediocre. They'd be taking a HUGE risk in giving that much guaranteed money, because if he doesn't fit their team for whatever reason and flops or is totally ho-hum they're stuck even if they want to bench or cut him.

 

The Peyton situation was completely different as Peyton was already a SB winner and sure fire first ballot HOFer. There was little doubt that he could be successful in any system since he's basically an on-field coordinator. The only thing they needed to worry about was whether he would stay healthy which was a bit of a gamble but IIRC they did their homework and worked him out quit a bit. Is Kirk a good QB? Yeah. Top half of the league? Yes. Top 10? Maybe, but debatable. But he is far from Peyton Manning and still does have some questions about his game.

 

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48 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I'd think all of that (the fact that those other guys are extensions and not FA) would make other teams even more reluctant to give Kirk that much fully guaranteed money. Those guys are known quantities on their teams and in their systems; those teams know and feel that they can be successful with them. Kirk in another system with other players is an unknown. He might do great, he might flop or just be completely mediocre. They'd be taking a HUGE risk in giving that much guaranteed money, because if he doesn't fit their team for whatever reason and flops or is totally ho-hum they're stuck even if they want to bench or cut him.

 

The Peyton situation was completely different as Peyton was already a SB winner and sure fire first ballot HOFer. There was little doubt that he could be successful in any system since he's basically an on-field coordinator. The only thing they needed to worry about was whether he would stay healthy which was a bit of a gamble but IIRC they did their homework and worked him out quit a bit. Is Kirk a good QB? Yeah. Top half of the league? Yes. Top 10? Maybe, but debatable. But he is far from Peyton Manning and still does have some questions about his game.

 

 

On a very simple basis it's supply and demand. In the case of an extension you have one seller (the QB) and one buyer (the current team). If they become a free agent you have all the QBs available, but all the teams biding on their services. If all players were equal then free agents would get paid less, but I'm pretty confident Kirk will be by far the best QB to hit the market (assuming Brees and Garoppolo are locked up). In that case let's say there are 7 teams that would want him. They will naturally bid up his price until one team just outbids the rest. 

 

I'll say this again, it's very rare for a top 10 QB to become available. Some can be traded for (like Jay Culter to the Bears), but it's very rare for a top 10 guy to be there. Maybe the Brees/Culpepper free agent year of 2006, but that was a long time ago with Brees coming off a nasty throwing shoulder injury and Culpepper was coming off a nasty knee injury. Personally I think there will be teams that have a QB, but are not financially committed long term that will enter the bidding war. I'm thinking about the Dolphins (Tannehill), Bills (taylor) Jags (Bortles), Bengals (Dalton) and/or Giants (Manning) would be interested in joining the bidding that will already be going on between the Skins, Jets, Browns, Viks, Broncos and Cards. That's 11 teams in the NFL who could be competing for his services. 

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4 hours ago, KDawg said:

 

 

“He’s worth whatever they need to pay him. He’s the best QB the team has had in a long, long time.”

 

Absolutely. But where’s that gotten the Skins as a franchise? And that’s not to say that Kirk can’t guide the team forward and onto bigger and better things, but it is to say that the team hasn’t seen the kind of success you’d hope for given the cap % that he is allegedly looking at. 

 

Thats where a lot of the “Cousins is the best we’ve had” crowd is missing. 

 

But the other side is missing something, too. If we let Cousins walk and go with someone else, will the money saved help the team sign someone to fill the gap and improve another position with at least one quality player each season? If not, what’s the point in moving on? 

 

This is where there is a disconnect.

 

3 straight competitive seasons, including 1 division title, 1 near miss of a wild card berth, and a third season in which the qb often had to overcome ridiculous adversity, with sub par units all around (for various reasons), and therefore showed he might be even better than we thought.  In other words (and I hate to keep repeating myself), probably the best 3 season stretch in the last 25 or whatever years.  Not a great 3 year stretch, but also not embarrassingly inept.  Consistently mediocre.  While that shouldn't be something we're content with, it's better than our recent past.  

 

Does it mean that if we continue on we should be winning Super Bowls?  Likely no, but possibly.  Does that mean we're doomed without Cousins?  Not necessarily.  Does keeping him mean we can't build a team around him?  Not necessarily.  

 

If you accept the premise that this roster was the best we've had in a long while (albeit decimated by injury), and we assembled it 1) without multiple early round picks and 2) while paying the qb a lot of money the past two years... maybe we should stay on this path and see where it takes us.  

 

There's inherent risk in signing Cousins to a LTD, but I think you could argue that risk isn't any less (just different) if we opt for the journeyman or rookie route.  

 

Icing on the cake?  If we let him walk and don't get lucky with a new qb, we likely look like fools... once again.  

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4 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

Giving anyone $78 million fully guaranteed over 3 years is not a win for anyone but Kirk. That's a crazy amount of money considering what the other top paid QBs got in fully guaranteed money over the first 3 years. I don't see any way the Skins are willing to throw that much fully guaranteed money to him, and I don't see any way another team will because they have no clue how good he'll be with them. If he ends up being a guy who was just good in one system and he struggles a lot they are in the hole no matter what. It's not like he's won multiple playoff games or a SB or something. There are still question marks with his game.

Skins retain their franchise qb

Skins don't get labeled a laughing stock

Skins keep their qb and pay under market value (cap-wise) and are able to add an additional player or two via FA

 

Is it ideal?  Of course not.  Ideal would be Kirk getting paid 16/year, or better yet, the Skins finding a qb in the draft that is a complete stud.  It's a heck of a lot better for the team than what's been speculated though.  Always the chance he suffers a career ending injury, and that would be devastating.  Of course it would be devastating if we paid him 45 in guarantees and he were injured... just a bit less so.  

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49 minutes ago, Unbias said:

 

On a very simple basis it's supply and demand. In the case of an extension you have one seller (the QB) and one buyer (the current team). If they become a free agent you have all the QBs available, but all the teams biding on their services. If all players were equal then free agents would get paid less, but I'm pretty confident Kirk will be by far the best QB to hit the market (assuming Brees and Garoppolo are locked up). In that case let's say there are 7 teams that would want him. They will naturally bid up his price until one team just outbids the rest. 

 

I'll say this again, it's very rare for a top 10 QB to become available. Some can be traded for (like Jay Culter to the Bears), but it's very rare for a top 10 guy to be there. Maybe the Brees/Culpepper free agent year of 2006, but that was a long time ago with Brees coming off a nasty throwing shoulder injury and Culpepper was coming off a nasty knee injury. Personally I think there will be teams that have a QB, but are not financially committed long term that will enter the bidding war. I'm thinking about the Dolphins (Tannehill), Bills (taylor) Jags (Bortles), Bengals (Dalton) and/or Giants (Manning) would be interested in joining the bidding that will already be going on between the Skins, Jets, Browns, Viks, Broncos and Cards. That's 11 teams in the NFL who could be competing for his services. 

 

That's true in theory (though I really doubt there will be that many teams in a bidding war for him) but with the number we're talking about I think many teams would drop out really quick. If Kirk goes out and says "I want $80 million fully guaranteed over the first 3 years" most teams would likely just say "lol, later", while some may try to negotiate it down but I see pretty much no way he gets anywhere near that in an offer. He's a good QB but he's not elite and he still has some question marks with his game, and you better bet that if he's asking for that sort of money teams will be focusing on his tape and potential deficiencies like a laser. And again, it's unknown how he'll do with another team in a different system so that fully guaranteed money would be an enormous risk to take in the event that he flops. A QB like Peyton hitting the FA market was pretty much a once in a generation sort of thing to happen. The Bears probably kicked themselves for years for giving up 2 1st round picks and a huge contract for Cutler and getting nothing but consistent mediocre seasons. The Saints took a chance with an injured Brees and got lucky and it paid off.

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8 minutes ago, PF Chang said:

If I were a Broncos fan and my team had a chance to add a franchise QB for 3yrs/$78M, for nothing but CAP SPACE, I'd be pissed off if they declined. Though I think they'd happily do that deal. 

 

I don't think Elway would ever give Kirk a $78 million fully guaranteed over 3 years contract. He broke the bank for Peyton but Kirk is not Peyton.

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22 minutes ago, PF Chang said:

If I were a Broncos fan and my team had a chance to add a franchise QB for 3yrs/$78M, for nothing but CAP SPACE, I'd be pissed off if they declined. Though I think they'd happily do that deal. 

 

I'm sure KC took note of all the warm and fuzzy overtures from Von Miller, Chris Harris and Vance Joseph after the Broncos game.  Kirk is nerdy that way....

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16 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I don't think Elway would ever give Kirk a $78 million fully guaranteed over 3 years contract. He broke the bank for Peyton but Kirk is not Peyton.

 

I think Elway would be all over that deal like a rash.

 

Restucture Von Miller, ship out the other QBs and with a stacked draft pick some OL high.

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Perhaps some of you haven't caught on, but under no circumstances will mistertim budge one iota on Kirk Cousins skills, earning power, personality, etc.  I'm not sure there is anyone here more heavily invested in the detriment of Kirk Cousins.  This is nothing new and there is plenty of history there to support exactly what I'm saying.  Goal post mover extraordinaire.

 

Do yourselves a favor, disengage and stop banging your head against the wall.  You can thank me later. 

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4 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

They typically identify early on whether they want to hold on to the QB and proceed accordingly as well.  Only the Redskins played the dangerous game of franchise tagging.

If this current Redskins FO had their way Cousins would have never started in 2015, until Rg3 went down after 1 to 3 games, but even then they may have preferred Colt.

 

Then we'd have heard about how great this backup scrub was playing for the Vikings after Bridgewater went down in 2016, with an actually playoff caliber roster.

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