ESPN.com: Kirk Cousins contract talks with Redskins on positive track

[elkabong82]

2 hours ago, Cliffmark1 said:

IMHO this is false and is perpetuated by Pawn Stars. 

 

You can piss people off to the point they walk. If an offer is insulting it actually hurts the process. It can even get to the point of stopping the consideration of future offers which is likely not far off for Kirk because what he would lose is much less than what he would gain from ignoring such offers. 

 

No, it's not false. Pawn shops typically are at the advantage, as the customer comes to them and often the customer needs to make the sale, hence why they are even going to a pawn shop. So a pawn shop's offer is going to be very low, and at times it ticks off sellers, but they too know and have even said on that show they get it, that's how pawn stores operate.

 

Now if Skins this year offered Kirk $16 mil a year, yeah that would be insultingly low. But what their initial offer was would put Cousins as a top 10 paid QB and it's only 4-5 million a year off. Likely Kirk's side is wanting closer to 30, which is way too high, and I assume where the free agency number comes from that keeps getting floated around. One side starts very high, the other low, and they negotiate from those points. Starting at $20 mil to get to 24-25 is not insultingly low. It's an expected initial offer.

[Cliffmark1]

14 minutes ago, elkabong82 said:

 

No, it's not false. Pawn shops typically are at the advantage, as the customer comes to them and often the customer needs to make the sale, hence why they are even going to a pawn shop. So a pawn shop's offer is going to be very low, and at times it ticks off sellers, but they too know and have even said on that show they get it, that's how pawn stores operate.

 

Now if Skins this year offered Kirk $16 mil a year, yeah that would be insultingly low. But what their initial offer was would put Cousins as a top 10 paid QB and it's only 4-5 million a year off. Likely Kirk's side is wanting closer to 30, which is way too high, and I assume where the free agency number comes from that keeps getting floated around. One side starts very high, the other low, and they negotiate from those points. Starting at $20 mil to get to 24-25 is not insultingly low. It's an expected initial offer.

It is false outside of a pawnshop.  You are extrapolating Pawn Shop tactics to multi-million dollar negotiations with differing amounts of leverage.  I took a negotiation class in college and have sold many high value items, there are several things that bring a deal together including added value.  The redskins current offer adds nothing to Kirk and is less than market rate by 20%. Kirk signing with the Redskins makes the Redskins franchise more valuable as starting poor QBs hurts ticket sales, jersey sales etc. 

 

I have sold many high dollar items, SaaS, consulting services, you name it but let's take the example of a Porsche.  You would not believe the number of lowball offers that I 100% ignored because they are less than offers I know I can get (e.g. CarMax buy in).  So when Kirk sees 20 million per year offered, and he knows he might get close to 30 million next year (or 34 if tagged again) there is absolutely no value or incentive for him to continue the negotiation, even if the end up at 24mm he may decide it is too little too late.  OTOH offers that are fair, fast, and when the opposing side is easy to work with, you do often get deals done.  

 

Washington Post offered a really low amount for my company NinjaTickets.com, which was ignored.  They went and built it themselves and that promptly died for a multitude of reasons many of which would have been addressed if they just offered a fair amount for NinjaTickets.com.  If they had offered a reasonable amount for NinjaTickets they would still be making money on tickets.  

[elkabong82]

1 hour ago, Cliffmark1 said:

What leverage do the skins think they have to offer less than 24-25 million per year? 

 

Why would the Skins start at the point the deal is likely to finish? If that was their initial offer then Cousins' agent would know the team is willing to go higher and have him hold out for more. 

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/17084231/denver-broncos-von-miller-agree-6-year-1145-million-deal

 

Here is the story of how the Von Miller deal went down. This was a player that said he would not play on the tag and told the team he would demand a trade if they didn't agree to a long term deal. Denever didn't want to trade him. Both sides agreed on the contract length and overall number before summer. Guaranteed money is what kept the two sides apart. Miller used other top D players' guaranteed amounts as bargaining points. The Broncos started at $39.8 million in guarantees, eventually getting to the $70 million Miller agreed to.

 

While Kirk has been much more amicable in dealings (which leads me to still believe a LTD gets done), at this point with 3 weeks left it's likely both sides have agreed to year length and total amount but it's the guaranteed money they are finalizing. Kirk is going to get more than Carr, and that contract is definitely being used in the negotiations now. Carr has just over $70 million guaranteed total, Kirk I bet gets something around $80 with the same annual amount as Carr.

[Cliffmark1]

1 minute ago, elkabong82 said:

 

Why would the Skins start at the point the deal is likely to finish? If that was their initial offer then Cousins' agent would know the team is willing to go higher and have him hold out for more. 

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/17084231/denver-broncos-von-miller-agree-6-year-1145-million-deal

 

Here is the story of how the Von Miller deal went down. This was a player that said he would not play on the tag and told the team he would demand a trade if they didn't agree to a long term deal. Denever didn't want to trade him. Both sides agreed on the contract length and overall number before summer. Guaranteed money is what kept the two sides apart. Miller used other top D players' guaranteed amounts as bargaining points. The Broncos started at $39.8 million in guarantees, eventually getting to the $70 million Miller agreed to.

 

While Kirk has been much more amicable in dealings (which leads me to still believe a LTD gets done), at this point with 3 weeks left it's likely both sides have agreed to year length and total amount but it's the guaranteed money they are finalizing. Kirk is going to get more than Carr, and that contract is definitely being used in the negotiations now. Carr has just over $70 million guaranteed total, Kirk I bet gets something around $80 with the same annual amount as Carr.

Because Kirk has been tagged twice and the third time is an astronomical amount.  The Redskins have zero leverage in this deal, their goal has to be to get it done, not necessarily to get a great deal on it.  It's like flying someplace for work at the last minute, if you don't take the expensive flight, charter a plane or any number of expensive items, you stand to lose much more.   The Redskins had a chance to get Kirk dirt cheap, if they extended him during his rookie deal like Carr.  

[elkabong82]

29 minutes ago, Cliffmark1 said:

It is false outside of a pawnshop.  You are extrapolating Pawn Shop tactics to multi-million dollar negotiations with differing amounts of leverage.  

 

No, I am not, and even explained why further in the post you just replied to. 

 

Pawn shops intentionally go very low, they have the advantage. Contract negotiations with players, teams start low, players start high. Teams don't just offer right away what they are willing to pay unless it is free agency. But, it's true also teams can go insultingly low. Offering 20 mil a year over 5 years to a player likely to get 25 mil a year over 5 is not an insult. 

[Cliffmark1]

6 minutes ago, elkabong82 said:

 

No, I am not, and even explained why further in the post you just replied to. 

 

Pawn shops intentionally go very low, they have the advantage. Contract negotiations with players, teams start low, players start high. Teams don't just offer right away what they are willing to pay unless it is free agency. But, it's true also teams can't go insultingly low. Offering 20 mil a year over 5 years to a player likely to get 25 mil a year over 5 is not an insult. 

What will Kirk make next year?  If he doesn't sign a deal this year it is more than the deal he could potentially sign this year and maybe 30-40% more than was offered.  Redskins do not have the ability to start low, it will muck up the deal.  They have to make the deal very sweet to get him to sign because of the derivative value of his abilities and the Redskins (in)ability to keep Kirk on their team. 

 

Are you suggesting you can't offend people with low offers? 

[elkabong82]

1 minute ago, Cliffmark1 said:

Because Kirk has been tagged twice and the third time is an astronomical amount.  The Redskins have zero leverage in this deal, their goal has to be to get it done, not necessarily to get a great deal on it.  It's like flying someplace for work at the last minute, if you don't take the expensive flight, charter a plane or any number of expensive items, you stand to lose much more.   The Redskins had a chance to get Kirk dirt cheap, if they extended him during his rookie deal like Carr.  

 

Skins do have leverage. The team aqnd Kirk's success here is a known quantity. Kirk doesn't know what teams actually will need a QB next year and, of them, which will be ok with forking out more something like $26 mil a year or more over 5 years with high 80s or more in guarnteed money rather than drafting a QB in a strong QB draft class when they likely have a high pick. On top of that, of those teams, Kirk would be gambling big time that with him at the helm the team will turn around, be good, Kirk will do well with that teams' offense and players, etc. That is a MAJOR gamble. Kirk could get a big LTD as a free agent, and wind up going to a team where his career dies and he doesn't see a lot of the money from the contract.

 

Or, he stays here in a known offensive system where he excels, with a great OL and passing weapons, especially an elite TE his favorite target, and the team could be right back in the playoffs this coming year. The Redskins do have some advantage. The fans that say otherwise are wrong. 

 

Interesting that close to $20 million a year, what Kirk repotedly wanted after 2015, is now "dirt cheap," lol. If Kirk busted after a brief stint of doing good (and the Skins LITERALLY just had that happen at QB), that wouldn't be a dirt cheap contract, it would have significantly hurt the team. 

[elkabong82]

6 minutes ago, Cliffmark1 said:

What will Kirk make next year?  If he doesn't sign a deal this year it is more than the deal he could potentially sign this year and maybe 30-40% more than was offered.  Redskins do not have the ability to start low, it will muck up the deal.  They have to make the deal very sweet to get him to sign because of the derivative value of his abilities and the Redskins (in)ability to keep Kirk on their team. 

 

Are you suggesting you can't offend people with low offers? 

 

Maybe slow down on the replies and actually read my posts all the way through and take some time to think about it, because despite me laying out my position several times now in very clear terms, you either A) still don't get it, or B ) are so worked up and determined to be "right" that you're missing my points entirely for the sake of arguing strawmen to your benefit.

 

I've said throughout that the initial offer was not "insultingly low" and even said if they had offered something like $16 a year, that would be insultingly low. So your silly question was answered well before you asked it, lol

 

Skins DO have the ability to start low. Your entire position seems predicated on the belief that Kirk has NO incentive to sign with the Skins and has all the advantage. As already explained, this is completely wrong. The team is a known quantity. Kirk KNOWS he can be successful here. Kirk does NOT know what his options will be next year if he became a free agent. Odds are it will be a few teams that are rebuilding and that can spell doom for a QB. It worked for Brees, but we all forget that same year Culpepper was a free agent, went to Miami on a big money contract, and it did NOT work out. 

[wit33]

I truly wonder where Jay Gruden is on all this. I would imagine his thoughts are providing Skins front office some leverage. Possibly? 

 

 

[@DCGoldPants]

$24m a year should be the offer with like $75M guaranteed. Make a 5 year deal which would put him around 34-35 with maybe a team option for a 6th year. $24M is about 14% of the cap this year. That % will keep going down if the next few years are anything like the last. 12-13% bump Would you pay 14% for the guy who touches the ball on every offensive snap? I would. I'd even put in bonuses for things like playoffs wins, yards and completion %.

 

Again....

 

Suck it up. Overpay the guy. Praise him in public. Say they should have done it right last year but have no issue paying for a guy. 

 

 

[ILikeBilly]

Didn't want to respond in the twitter thread, so I am doing it here.  I will related my comment to the contract.

 

Kirk cheated in his jenga video.  You can't use two hands to pull a block or place a block back on the tower.  So Kirk, for cheating, please drop your salary demands down to $24.5 mil a year with $55 mil guaranteed.

[Cliffmark1]

1 hour ago, elkabong82 said:

 

Maybe slow down on the replies and actually read my posts all the way through and take some time to think about it, because despite me laying out my position several times now in very clear terms, you either A) still don't get it, or B ) are so worked up and determined to be "right" that you're missing my points entirely for the sake of arguing strawmen to your benefit.

 

I've said throughout that the initial offer was not "insultingly low" and even said if they had offered something like $16 a year, that would be insultingly low. So your silly question was answered well before you asked it, lol

 

Skins DO have the ability to start low. Your entire position seems predicated on the belief that Kirk has NO incentive to sign with the Skins and has all the advantage. As already explained, this is completely wrong. The team is a known quantity. Kirk KNOWS he can be successful here. Kirk does NOT know what his options will be next year if he became a free agent. Odds are it will be a few teams that are rebuilding and that can spell doom for a QB. It worked for Brees, but we all forget that same year Culpepper was a free agent, went to Miami on a big money contract, and it did NOT work out. 

 

 

I don't think you are considering my posts either. You ignored two vital questions and have made a huge assumption. 

 

What would kirk likely make next year if he doesn't take a deal this year?

 

What leverage does Kirk have?

 

The assumption you made is that we are like the NE patriots in how good we are and that will boost his net worth. But in reality if you weren't signed early and after the rg3 thing, then 20+ years of not being in the SB and 2 3-4 win seasons recently would you really believe the argument you are making if you're KC?

 

the only good imo argument is he could get hurt or be terrible.

 

but again the value proposition and leverage imo are all in kirks favor whereas the examples you provided there was a FT etc which evened the deck or made it a dealers table. That just isn't what you have here. In my opinion there is almost no reason for kirk to take even a 25 per year contract here. It has to be a very sweet deal to get it done. 

[Veryoldschool]

Snyder looks like absolute fool no matter how it works out but I hope idiots realizes it is better to look foolish with a QB than without aQB.

[skins2victory]

I keep seeing people say that the Redskins have no leverage. Kirk definitely has the upper hand in the leverage department. But why do players want long term deals?? Well one big reason is so they will continue to get paid, even if they suffer an injury. The LTD is basically injury insurance. God forbid, but if Kirk plays this year under the tag, and suffers a major injury, then he would be wishing he signed for 5 years at 20 million. That is where the Skins have some leverage. I think something like 5 years 23 to 23.5 mill a year is fair. Sure hope they work it out!

[Skinsinparadise]

 

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jun/25/kirk-cousins-highest-paid-nfl-player-ever/

With the July 17 deadline looming for the team to sign Cousins to a long-term contract or else live with the one-year, $24 million franchise tag deal they have, industry observers continue to marvel at the leverage Cousins has over the franchise.

“He is in a position of power,” ESPN’s Adam Schefter said in January. “He holds the keys there.”

Six months later, Cousins‘ position has only improved. “Cousins has so much leverage that a new Redskins official compliments him publicly every day,” Gregg Rosenthal of nfl.com tweeted Thursday. “The ‘Skins are forced to campaign for Cousins just to take their money because the QB knows greater riches are around the corner if he becomes available next offseason.”

The Redskins gave Cousins all this power by refusing to commit to a long-term contract earlier in the process. Committing to Counsins was reportedly something that departed general manager Scot McCloughan wanted to do.

You remember the McCloughan era, don’t you? When chaos reigned and the team was in a downward spiral — not like now, with the franchise in the hands of this new well-oiled front office.

The team opted not to sign Cousins when McCloughan wanted to because, well, they could. They had the power then.

Now, it’s like that scene in “A Bronx Tale,” where Chazz Palminteri, playing mobster Sonny LoSpecchio, locks a motorcycle gang inside a mob bar they refused to leave after starting to break it up and says, “Now youse can’t leave.” Narrator Calogero Anello describes how, in that moment, the gang lost all power.

When the Redskins tagged Cousins not once, but twice, they lost all their power — ironically, even though the franchise tag is a device to control the player.

Not this time.

Cousins‘ value has only gone up, as the market price for quarterbacks has risen dramatically, the latest being Raiders quarterback Derek Carr’s record-setting $125 million deal. Cousins will likely require more.

 

http://czabe.com/the-post/3084/

They lost the precious window in which the guaranteed weight of the franchise tag salary was not going to start work against them. In the winter of ’16, when Kirk’s franchise number was $20M, the team came in weak and somewhat insulting with a $16M/per year offer that set in (slow) motion the last 18 months of non-action Kirk contract “cha-cha-cha” as Galdi would say.

So no, I don’t think the David Carr signing does anything really to help or hurt the chances Kirk signs a new long term deal by July 17. I thought those chances were only about 5% before this new QB salary “data point” and it was a “courtesy” 5% anyway, filed under: “Well… you never know.”

 

...And starters cost $25M++ right now. They cost a little LESS about 2 years ago (like say $20M++) but the price is going up, and it’s never coming down. So if you like having a starter, and don’t like having 16 weeks of live game auditions that count in the standings (I’m looking at YOU, Cleveland!) then you better get the guy locked up.

But here we still are. Kirk is not locked up. So at this point, I propose a radical approach for the Skins brass that is our only hope for a long and wonderful marriage.

Tell Kirk you will not use the franchise tag again this winter. Not even the “transition” tag. Apologize for letting it come to this point. Say to him publicly, and honestly: “Look, we love you. You are the best thing to happen to us at QB in over 20 years. We want you here for 10 more years of great football. But we screwed up just a bit. We thought the first franchise tag was just a placeholder, and we never got our numbers right. And we did it again this winter.”

“So after this season, Kirk will be a free agent, and he can leave if he wants. But we not only think he can best thrive in our offense, with our coaching staff, and the team we are building around him… we also know that we will not lose a bidding war for his services. As anyone who has been here under owner Daniel M. Snyder, one thing he does not lose are battles for high profile free agents.”

It’s the “if you love something, set it free” approach. Crazy? Maybe. Humbling? Sure. But I think it has the best chance for success.

It removes the Redskins from looking like contractual hostage-takers. It puts subtle pressure on Kirk to contemplate having to be the “bad guy” by leaving.

 

...Kirk and his agent know that his client has ALREADY SIGNED a 3-year guaranteed contract with the Washington Redskins for $72 million. They virtually “signed” their own deal, the minute the Redskins locked them in the franchise tag basement. Kirk and his agent understood two things 1) Franchise tag values for QB’s are fantastic! 2) No team has ever franchised a QB, and then NOT franchised him the following year if a deal didn’t get done.

Kirk lucked into a team that hit “start” on a doomsday clock that now can’t be stopped. In fact, I’d be shocked if any team ever uses the franchise tag on a good QB ever again. Even for a minute. It’s too risky for the team!

 

...The Skins have zero leverage on Kirk. In fact, I think they’ve kinda pissed him off.

I repeat: using the tag on Kirk was a mistake from the jump. So let’s admit it, be honest about our appreciation of him as our starter, and commit to winning his trust both on the field and off, and also at the negotiating table this winter.

The door is open. You will be free to leave. But we plan on convincing you that you’d be crazy to do so.

They say that’s how love works. No matter what, Kirk will win in the end. He’s got $44M in the bank from the Redskins, he will get a multi-year contract from somebody next season even if he stinks like a rotten carp in 2017 and the Skins let him walk.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

9 hours ago, skins2victory said:

I keep seeing people say that the Redskins have no leverage. Kirk definitely has the upper hand in the leverage department. But why do players want long term deals?? Well one big reason is so they will continue to get paid, even if they suffer an injury. The LTD is basically injury insurance. God forbid, but if Kirk plays this year under the tag, and suffers a major injury, then he would be wishing he signed for 5 years at 20 million. That is where the Skins have some leverage. I think something like 5 years 23 to 23.5 mill a year is fair. Sure hope they work it out!

While there is risk associated with playing on the tag.  I think for a guy like Kirk it's very minimal.  God forbid anything catastrophic happen, but I'm sure he'll be just fine with the 44M he's raked in 2016/2017.  While I don't know Kirk, I suspect his desire for a LTD is more about commitment and respect than it is $$$.  That's just the vibe he gives off. 

[bowhunter]

6 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

While there is risk associated with playing on the tag.  I think for a guy like Kirk it's very minimal.  God forbid anything catastrophic happen, but I'm sure he'll be just fine with the 44M he's raked in 2016/2017.  While I don't know Kirk, I suspect his desire for a LTD is more about commitment and respect than it is $$$.  That's just the vibe he gives off. 

I hope you're right, but I also have a feeling his agent won't let him settle for something less than the $$$ that sets the market

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

4 minutes ago, bowhunter said:

I hope you're right, but I also have a feeling his agent won't let him settle for something less than the $$$ that sets the market

That too.

 

I also get the impression that he lets his agent do his job.  I absolutely think it will take Kirk getting an equal deal to Carr, maybe plus some, to make this happen.

[Burgold]

Part of me thinks the problem is that Kirk is too removed from the negotiation. It's probably smart on his part, but I think it's a big reason why nothing is happening. I liken it to me being a reporter trying to secure an interview with an A lister. Now, I've landed some pretty big fish. I've chatted with Joe Gibbs, Robin Williams, Mark Hamill, Dave Goelz (Muppets), Stan Lee, etc. but pretty much all of these guys I got buy working the system. If I had to go through handlers I was very often told no. If, however, I could pitch the star themselves or someone who knew the star my batting average went from .115 to about .700. 

 

Agents and handlers make life difficult. Thy often prevent things from getting done. Oft times, things their clients actually want. McCartney wants to get the best deal for his client, but he also wants to make a name for himself and prove to all the other guys out there that he should sign with him because he kills it. Right now, that's the third leg of this battle of ego and dollars.

 

Frankly, Kirk needs to get involved in the talks. If he did so, I bet an agreement would follow pretty quickly. If it didn't then there are real issues that just can't get solved.

[Hail2theSkins24]

This slow news is killing me: I'm ready for some football 

[HOF44]

27 minutes ago, Burgold said:

 

 

Frankly, Kirk needs to get involved in the talks. If he did so, I bet an agreement would follow pretty quickly. If it didn't then there are real issues that just can't get solved.

That assumes Kirk has a real desire to be here.  I don't think he is against staying in DC, but I also don't think he has any desire to give anything up to an organization that has been a mess for a long time and lukewarm to him at best.  I think he is happy to get a Lloyds of London policy on himself and play under the tag if the Skins don't meet what he thinks is fair.  He really has nothing to lose except the cost of the insurance policy.

[Dont Taze Me Bro]

1 hour ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

That too.

 

I also get the impression that he lets his agent do his job.  I absolutely think it will take Kirk getting an equal deal to Carr, maybe plus some, to make this happen.

 

See, I'm fine with overpaying him (to a certain degree of course).  With that said, I don't think his deal should be more than Carr's based on both of their body's of work and where each is right now (again, I'm willing to overpay to keep him, but that does not have to agree with what I think his worth is).  

 

What I'm afraid of is the Carr deal and our FO.  Look at both teams and both QBs stats.  The Raiders defense was only slightly better than ours (as far as rank - they were two spots higher) and when you look at both, it's basically the same team.  Carr took his team to a 12-3 record while Kirk went 8-7-1.  Statistically Kirk had some better QB stats than Carr, but had twice as many interceptions.  

 

While both QBs are somewhat in similar situations with both their teams having very poor defenses, one was able to still translate into 12 wins out of 15 games before being injured.  The other was only able to provide 8 wins.  And no, I'm not dogging Kirk and I am a huge supporter and want him here on a LTD and don't care if we overpay this year for him.  So to those that will read this the wrong way, please don't come at me with those silly arguments and try and start something when there is nothing.

 

I agree with you Battered, it's going to cost as much or more than Carr's deal and I'm worried our FO is going to screw this up and the max offer be something slightly less but close to it and it's going to come down to Kirk's agent/side feeling disrespected again, him playing under the tag and most likely leaving after the season next year.

[Burgold]

Just now, HOF44 said:

That assumes Kirk has a real desire to be here. 

I was thinking about that too. Mind you, if we got around the gatekeepers (agent) he might feel more loved and wanted which might help.

 

Kirk has done a lot of the side stuff that makes you think he wants to succeed here whether or not he wants to be here. He's held the off season private workouts with the receivers, he's signed his tags pretty quickly, etc. I tend to believe the answer and the fault usually lies somewhere in the middle. I suspect that's true here too. The Front Office has made a mess of things. Kirk brings his own issues, and the agent is probably being the typical greedy agent and exercising all the leverage he thinks he can get away with.

[HOF44]

15 minutes ago, Burgold said:

 

 

Kirk has done a lot of the side stuff that makes you think he wants to succeed here whether or not he wants to be here. He's held the off season private workouts with the receivers, he's signed his tags pretty quickly, etc. 

I just think the things he has done are because he wants success.  He is mature and smart enough to realize that he needs to do everything he can to be great wether he ends up here next year or elsewhere.  The better he is the bigger the payday, be it the skins or someone else.  So I don't necessarily see those things as indicative of a huge desire to remain Redskin.  Again I don't think he has a problem staying with the Skins, just not any special desire to.

[LaRonDontLikeUgly]

16 minutes ago, Dont Taze Me Bro said:

So to those that will read this the wrong way, please don't come at me with those silly arguments and try and start something when there is nothing.

 

I'm gonna agree with your post 100%, take it a step further, and invite anyone silly enough to argue this point to do so:

 

Carr is better than Cousins in every possible way.

 

I'm down to overpay for Kirk bc quite frankly I think we need to-- However, if he's asking for a bigger contract than Carr then he is just delusional.  Match it or let him walk.