DogofWar1 Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 (edited) This race ended up being surprisingly unsurprising. It's not an amazing thing for Dems, but it's certainly not bad. The special elections thus far have been around an average of around a 13 point swing towards Dems. GA6 had an even larger swing from the 2016 election (about 18), but even by other measures that are less favorable to the GOP, this swing is a minimum of about 5 points in the direction of Dems. So ultimately, this doesn't change much from before, which is that probably around 64ish seats are legitimately in play. More will be "close" but ultimately not flip, and some of that 64 will end up held. That being said, outside of GOP strongholds, 2018 will likely have lots of GOP losses. Dems will need to follow their 2006 strategy of competing everywhere. They should also put together strong policy planks, which, while they probably won't matter to a ton of the public, will start to matter down the road in terms of contrasting with the GOP's governance going into 2020. Some other observations: - Dems spent a ton, but so did GOP. - This probably bodes both good and bad for 2018 for both sides. On the one hand, Dems couldn't possibly pour in the money to every race like they did in GA6, but simultaneously, neither will the GOP be able to spend as much in defense. - In the end the money stuff probably just cancels out assuming there isn't some huge imbalance in spending. - Lots of news items from earlier were helpful to Dems (mostly Russia stuff coming out against Trump) BUT late breaking news items, including the shooting, probably helped the GOP (not so much adding voters but probably increasing enthusiasm). - GOP will probably take it as good news that they won by more than a point or two, and it sort of is, but the margin (presently sitting at 4.2% apart) isn't particularly large. I think the margin really needed to be around 8 or so before the GOP could start rejoicing, an 8 point margin would be sufficiently close to it's prior expected lean that they could argue/believe that the negatives of Trump had subsided at least somewhat. At only a 4 point win, it's clear there is still a major tidal effect. Edited June 21, 2017 by DogofWar1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogofWar1 Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 I like the analogy this guy used in this twitter thread: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGreatBuzz Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 22 minutes ago, visionary said: Anyone else notice he used the letter O and not the number 0? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 (edited) 3 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said: Anyone else notice he used the letter O and not the number 0? I saw a lot of folks pointing it out on twitter...but I couldn't tell. Oh blah...I was looking at the end of his statement, not the other part. Now I see it. Doh. Edited June 21, 2017 by visionary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGreatBuzz Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 Wait.......how do I get a cool description below my name like that? Can I be "only non-retarded conservative left anywhere ever"? I demand recognition! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nonniey Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 55 minutes ago, haithman said: Our politics are broken in this country. Just a complete lack of decorum and grace and these are the people in charge and their opposition. Where did we go wrong as a country? It's just incredibly sad. Fixed it for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkinsHokieFan Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 The opposition is incredibly weak and timid i would love to see what foxnews would be doing if Hillary was President and under federal investigation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Going Commando Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 I wonder if anyone in the Trump administration realizes that calling these elections as Trump victories 1 - accepts that they're referendums on his presidency 2 - celebrates 1 and 2 point wins in districts that go Republican by 20+. That means that Trump is a -18 point drag on Republican candidates. Actually I don't wonder if they realize this. They're morons. To a man. What I wonder is if congressional Republicans realize this. 6 minutes ago, nonniey said: Fixed it for you. Your party is a disgrace. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 3 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said: Keep laughing you dumb smug turd. Let's see what happens when you all pass this piece of **** healthcare bill and Republicans have to defend seats they haven't held for the last 40 years. Chickens and hatched. At at least the House version of the law doesn't really screw large numbers of people until after the next Presidential election. There's a reason for that. These predictions of Democrats being swept into power atop a huge wave of anger over Republican suckitude are premature, at the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
@DCGoldPants Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 11 hours ago, @SkinsGoldPants said: If the DNC doesn't realize this by now. They never will. Rings more true this AM. If you have candidates running against Pelosi while not even having to mention the leader of their party until after the election. The Dems are idiots for trotting her out in front of the camera a few times a week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zoony Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 8 minutes ago, @SkinsGoldPants said: Rings more true this AM. If you have candidates running against Pelosi while not even having to mention the leader of their party until after the election. The Dems are idiots for trotting her out in front of the camera a few times a week. There is a true crisis of leadership 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
@DCGoldPants Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 1 minute ago, zoony said: There is a true crisis of leadership It's true. They need different names running their party right now. If your name can be used by the opposition in election after election with success. Then you're a problem. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrcunning15 Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 8 minutes ago, @SkinsGoldPants said: Rings more true this AM. If you have candidates running against Pelosi while not even having to mention the leader of their party until after the election. The Dems are idiots for trotting her out in front of the camera a few times a week. Yeah, Pelosi seems to bring out the same hatred from the white male suburbanite baby boomer demo as Hillary does. Why exactly is there so much hatred for her? I understand she made that stupid comment about ObamaCare but what other baggage does she have? or is it just a very effective smear job on the part of the right wing media? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
@DCGoldPants Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 24 minutes ago, mrcunning15 said: Yeah, Pelosi seems to bring out the same hatred from the white male suburbanite baby boomer demo as Hillary does. Why exactly is there so much hatred for her? I understand she made that stupid comment about ObamaCare but what other baggage does she have? or is it just a very effective smear job on the part of the right wing media? It doesn't matter. She's an easy target and it works. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bliz Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 (edited) 10 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said: LOL Trump's a ****ing anchor. He's the reason these races have been close. The actual truth is that Democrats haven't yet figured out how to pry away Republican strongholds. It's going to take a lot more than spending a ton of money on ads and mailers and attracting national attention to your campaign for a few months. Democrats are literally going to have to go into these places and engage with the voters and recruit quality local Democrats for candidacies at the municipal and state level. It's going to take a long term effort to establish lines of communication with these polities and change hearts and minds. A smart take on that subject: http://steveschale.com/blog/2017/6/20/one-big-lesson-from-ga-06.html Edited June 21, 2017 by Bliz 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No Excuses Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 It's a district that Mitt Romney won by 23% and we now have two elections (2016 and 2017) showing nearly a 20% swing to Democrats. It's a realignment that will shape out over the next decade. The problem with hot takes is that they ignore long term trends. Democrats had been getting wiped out in districts with uneducated white voters for a while which came to full force in 2016. We are seeing the same trends for the GOP in districts with high percentages of college educated/professional class voters. We don't really know how this play out on a larger scale over the next decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Going Commando Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 37 minutes ago, mrcunning15 said: Yeah, Pelosi seems to bring out the same hatred from the white male suburbanite baby boomer demo as Hillary does. Why exactly is there so much hatred for her? I understand she made that stupid comment about ObamaCare but what other baggage does she have? or is it just a very effective smear job on the part of the right wing media? She's a Democratic leader with long time national name recognition. Her record doesn't matter. Replacing her will wipe out the name recognition among GoP voters... for a time. Until the next one gets the same treatment from the powerful right wing propaganda machine. The only way to fight this is to figure out a way to deliver the democratic message directly to the voters and not let right wing propagandists define you with said voters. It's difficult because you're talking about diminishing the credibility and influence of institutions that are distressingly powerful and influential, without ever taking them on directly. Voter outreach and direct communication is the only way. Democrats have to become familiar members of these communities. You have to get progressives in local offices who run successful progressive policy that convinces people Democratic administration makes their lives better in x, y, and z tangible ways. It is an absolutely monumental challenge that could take a generation of work to overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Going Commando Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, No Excuses said: We are seeing the same trends for the GOP in districts with high percentages of college educated/professional class voters. We don't really know how this play out on a larger scale over the next decade. Not good IMO. Democrats and Republicans swapping stripes is going to be absolutely disastrous for the poor. Low wage, low security working white poor and non college educated demos have been and will continue to be ravaged by Republican policy. If Democrats totally give up on them and say "it serves the ignorant yokels right for voting Republican" then there will be no one left fighting for them. Democrats will be abrogating one of the fundamental values of the party's identity: to be a champion for the poor and working class. Not just that, over the next generation there are going to be a lot of college educated whites joining the ranks of the working poor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No Excuses Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 (edited) 15 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said: Not good IMO. Democrats and Republicans swapping stripes is going to be absolutely disastrous for the poor. Low wage, low security working white poor and non college educated demos have been and will continue to be ravaged by Republican policy. If Democrats totally give up on them and say "it serves the ignorant yokels right for voting Republican" then there will be no one left fighting for them. Democrats will be abrogating one of the fundamental values of the party's identity: to be a champion for the poor and working class. Not just that, over the next generation there are going to be a lot of college educated whites joining the ranks of the working poor. Working poor who are POC will still be a core constituency of the Dem base. Ultimately it will come down to educated professional class voters becoming allies in the fight for labor and economic justice. Although I have a sneaking suspicion that economic policy is not really a driving force in the US political climate right now. I think we are seeing voters coalescing around ideas that define the social structure of our country. And there are apparently enough college educated professional voters who are willing to overlook the leftist economic platform because it comes attached with a social vision they are more comfortable with. We see this because Hillary did great in educated/wealthy districts that were previously inaccessible to liberals. Conversely, poor rural whites are overlooking the GOPs economic platform because of social issues related to ethnicity and religion. The Democrats have plenty of answers for economic issues but no answer for the social anxieties of uneducated religious whites. The only difference is that the GOP hasn't fully felt the effects of losing educated/professional whites yet. So we aren't getting hot takes about this as much as we are about Dems losing working class whites. Edited June 21, 2017 by No Excuses 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No Excuses Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 Aside from GA-6, it's really really dumb that the DNC spent no resources whatsoever in SC-5. A district that had a Dem rep till 2010. It swung +16 yesterday and was closer than GA-6, and it didn't even have high voter turnout. The DNC pretty much has no one surveying some of these districts. They couldn't tell from the ground that it was wildly swinging in their favor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kilmer17 Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 Looking at the money. When Price beat Stookbury, he spent just over 2 million. Stooksbury spent zero (essentially). And Price won 200,000 to 125,000. 10 dollars per vote for Price, 0 per vote for Stooksbury (this am, they joked that the media couldnt find a picture of Stooksbury to use on election night). For yesterdays election, Almost 60 MILLION was spent (in both the primary and the runoff). Almost half by groups not officially associated with the campaigns. Lot's of nerd numbers here for those interested https://www.issueone.org/money-behind-expensive-u-s-house-race-history/ BUt the bottom line is that in the end, Ossoff spent about 220 dollars per EXTRA vote (over Stooksbury) and Handel spent about 200 per extra vote (over Price). Anyone trying to use this as any kind of bellweather or example of what could happen in 2018 is missing the point. This was a unique situation, with unlimited cash being throw about. That wont happen when there are 435 of these happening at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zoony Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 59 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said: Not good IMO. Democrats and Republicans swapping stripes is going to be absolutely disastrous for the poor. Low wage, low security working white poor and non college educated demos have been and will continue to be ravaged by Republican policy. If Democrats totally give up on them and say "it serves the ignorant yokels right for voting Republican" then there will be no one left fighting for them. Democrats will be abrogating one of the fundamental values of the party's identity: to be a champion for the poor and working class. Not just that, over the next generation there are going to be a lot of college educated whites joining the ranks of the working poor. The dems have already lost on the two most important issues of the working poor. God and Guns. Theyre not getting them back. They will most likely keep large portions of the black working poor, as they do today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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