Lindy's Sports: 2016 Redskins will finish 4th in NFC East

[SkinsGuy]

I was tracking this on a website but after the season ended they wanted me to pay. If I can find it again I will post. But the last one had us at 4th. However, they very well could have recalculated and decided it was 2nd. Either way, it was **** load of injuries - yet as you point out we still won the div!

 

There were a lot of injuries.

 

I didn't see anything at USA Today, but here is a list of the top five most injured teams from the "Sports Heaven" website:

 

http://sportsheaven.sportsblog.com/posts/11225132/top-five-most-injured-teams-nfl-season.html

 

The Redskins are listed at #2 (the Cowboys are nowhere to be found ).

[HanburgerBum]

The 2 games of difference have nothing to do with tiebreaking procedures until the sixth procedure.

 

Now, last place team from last year are not likely to be last place this year, mostly because of NFL parity. Last place teams from last year are Chicago, 49ers, Tampa and Dallas. 49ers will mostly suck, but Chiacgo and Tampa should be more tough to play.

On the other hand, the Rams that finished third are in trouble with their first pick getting slow to get ready... They might be easy win in the early season. The Eagles, as well finished second. I can easily see them fall to last place (eck, maybe even first pick next year). Even Detroit is looking bad, and they were third as well.

 

In the NFC, Titans and Chargers were last place teams, I doubt they repeat. Jaguars, Raiders were third. Thos two will be freaking tough, and why not make a run for their division

 

So with our 2 games different we face Cardinals and Panthers. One team with an overaging QB and an injury prone FS, and another one that overachieved on O due to 1 guy, that is less likely to repeat, and we face them both late in the season (when injuries are taking their toll). Dallas will face 49 ers and Tampa. 49ers in the first Q of the season might be a big ? for them, even if I don't see the 49ers as a real threat, considering where they come from (and well, that's Chip Kelly). But the Bucs might still be in the run for a playoff spot late in the season, so that won't be an easy game.

 

I would agree that things do change from year to year, and bad teams last year can be good this year and vice versa.  But, at this point of the off season, the only available means to judge teams is their recent performances and projections for this coming season.  I hope you are not serious when you seem to equate Cards/Panthers to two cellar-dwellers when it comes to SOS.  The Skins will be significant underdogs against Ariz and Carolina, while Dallas should be no worse than even against two last-place teams.  To me, there is no question the schedule favors Dallas.

 

By the way, when I was discussing tiebreakers in my previous post, I was not talking about what step in the tiebreaking procedure those two games may come into play.  What I was trying to say is that the difference between making the playoffs or missing the playoffs often comes down to a tiebreaker.  That means every game is vital, and that means a 2-game difference in the degree of difficulty in schedules is huge.

[HanburgerBum]

You are using the assumption that the performance the year before will be the same. By that logic, if you are going to have the Vikings on here, for last year you have to have the Dolphins and Falcons on the strong team list going into last year. Both were expected to not just make the playoffs they were supposed to make big runs. So that's just a 2 game difference. Even if you use actual results, how can the Jets not be on that list? They were 10-6 and just barely missed the POs. If you include the Vikings this year you have to include the falcons from last year. They were undefeated when we played them and playing at a very high level.

 

But let's look at %'s again, They hold pretty true and eliminate the teams that rise vs the teams that fall. Who saw the cowpukes going 4-12? That's a 16 gm difference yet the total diff was only 3 gms! That means the other teams we played had that many more wins. SOme of that was caromina - but that's only 4 gms. On average the %s will be pretty close. Assuming you know who will be "strong" or not is not much more than a crap shoot.

 

Sorry, but the data and facts suggest that while we have a little bit stronger schedule, last years was pretty close.

 

Here is my prediction for wins, admittedly way too early -

Wins - boys - giants - Clev - Lions - vikes - bears - eagles twice

Loses - AZ - boys - giants - pack -

Pick em - pitts - ravens - bengals - panthers

 

If we split the pick ems that's 10-6.

 

 

 

 

I was tracking this on a website but after the season ended they wanted me to pay. If I can find it again I will post. But the last one had us at 4th. However, they very well could have recalculated and decided it was 2nd. Either way, it was **** load of injuries - yet as you point out we still won the div!

 

You say Mia and Atl should be counted as strong opponents for 2015 if Minn is counted as a strong opponent for 2016.  While I think the 2016 Vikings figure to be better than the 2015 Dolphins and Falcons, the Skins ended up losing to both Mia and Atl in 2015.  So, I don't think you have made a good argument to take Minn out of the tough opponent category for 2016 if the Vikings are regarded to be on a par with the Dolphins and Falcons of 2015.  But, even if we do take the Vikings out, that would still leave GB, Cincy, Pitt and Ariz in the tough opponent group.

 

And, I think you are overly optimistic to put the Steelers, Bengals and Panthers in the pick'em category.  But, having said all that, I sure hope you are right about the Skins ending up 10-6, because that should be good enough for at least a wildcard spot.

[HanburgerBum]

lol...sorry bout that...I meant Dallass 'TonyRomo...

 

Thanks for clarifying.  romoSUCKS is brittle, but I wouldn't say he is done.  If he manages to stay healthy, and with that last-place schedule, I would think Dallas would be the favorite to win the division.

[HanburgerBum]

The funny thing is, the Redskins had massive injuries last season (as goskin10 said, we were 4th in total injuries, though I remember reading a USA Today article that said the Redskins were the second most injured team in the NFL), yet still made the playoffs.

 

True, Dallas did lose their starting QB, but he wasn't all that great when he did play.

 

This guy is saying the Redskins will fall into the basement because they lost some players who were perceived to be leaders on the team.

 

That is just silly, and two of the players he mentioned (Knighton and Goldson) were only on the team for a year and didn't play all that well.

 

Seems like this guy is just reaching for any excuse to put the Redskins in the cellar again.

 

I agree the idea the Skins will back track this coming season because they have lost "veteran leadership" borders on the absurd.  I think the Skins 2016 win/loss record may not be what fans hope for, but it wouldn't be because they lost Knighton and Goldson.

 

As to the Skins being high on the injury list, I think that could be misleading as well.  It is not always the number of players who get injured, but it is who got hurt.  The Skins were fortunate to have Cousins, Reed and the Oline stay healthy.  And, injuries even allowed the Skins to discover replacements who can play (Smith, W Compton, Foster, Long, Dunbar, Jarrett, Nsekhe).  In contrast, Dallas lost its starting QB and had no adequate replacement resulting in 12 losses.

[goskins10]

You say Mia and Atl should be counted as strong opponents for 2015 if Minn is counted as a strong opponent for 2016.  While I think the 2016 Vikings figure to be better than the 2015 Dolphins and Falcons, the Skins ended up losing to both Mia and Atl in 2015.  So, I don't think you have made a good argument to take Minn out of the tough opponent category for 2016 if the Vikings are regarded to be on a par with the Dolphins and Falcons of 2015.  But, even if we do take the Vikings out, that would still leave GB, Cincy, Pitt and Ariz in the tough opponent group.

 

And, I think you are overly optimistic to put the Steelers, Bengals and Panthers in the pick'em category.  But, having said all that, I sure hope you are right about the Skins ending up 10-6, because that should be good enough for at least a wildcard spot.

 

 

You completely missed my point about Minnesota and Atl/Mia. Going into this year Minn is expected to be a good team - not sure I agree completely but I will go along. But going into last year Mia and Atl were both expected to be very good - the same as Minn this year. Yes, after the season it turned out Atl and Mia were not very good overall (although Atl has the team just poor coaching IMO). But again going into the season they both were expected to be good - which is all you can go by for Minn at this point (and probably Pitts since they did very little to improve their D) - the same expectation. So it's an excellent argument and was my point you can't really make the comparison you are suggesting. 

 

I may be optimistic about Pitt, Bengals and Panthers, but I did not take them out of the strong team category. That was part of my prediction for a result only.

 

If you want to think we will backslide as a team, that's your right. But the facts do not support the reason of us having a much harder schedule than last year. There are legitimate concerns but I do not think the schedule is one of them.

[goskins10]

There were a lot of injuries.

 

I didn't see anything at USA Today, but here is a list of the top five most injured teams from the "Sports Heaven" website:

 

http://sportsheaven.sportsblog.com/posts/11225132/top-five-most-injured-teams-nfl-season.html

 

The Redskins are listed at #2 (the Cowboys are nowhere to be found ).

 

What I am referring to lost start games due to injury. I joined so I could get the chart but I can't figure out how to put the image here. I wish I knew more how to do this stuff. I can't even find where to add attachments.

 

Anyway - here is the web site - www.mangameslost.com. It cost's $5.00 to see the NFL data - $12 for all sports. Not promoting them, just giving you the info if you want it.

 

My guess is USA Today is counting the number of people injured instead of lost starter games. I could see that being a little higher. I will post the chart if I can ever figure it out - I am sure it's simply operator error since everyone else seems to be able to do it. I just need to sit down and figure it out.

[ntotoro]

It's amazing what winning 2 playoff games in 20 years will give a team. Homers gonna homer.

 

And one of those was a complete gift courtesy of a picked-up flag.

 

Nick

[LD0506]

Personally I'm not worried about SOS, that's an honor earned by playing well last season. You can't just hope your team trips over losers and falls ass first into a good record, what the hell is the point of watching that?!?

 

It ain't who ya play it's how you play, this team hits the ground running the way it could and should and we can hang with anybody. The most I ever ask for is a level playing field, ie. the damn zebras don't screw us (again).

 

Bring it

Show up healthy

Start your best

Play your game

See what happens

 

For instance NOBODY, and I mean nobody on the freekin planet, is going to bragging if we roll the Browns, they are simply not a good organization and we ought to beat them like a drum. That's no measure of where we're at or want to be. Take Pitt to the woodshed in the opener and you've got somethin' goin. But the point is if you just avoid the top tier and grab cheap wins where ya can it don't mean jack****, you're still losers. We should WANT Seattle, we should should want the Pats or Panthers, we should be looking forward to the Cards, dammit if you're gonna be good you should gripe about a good team NOT being in the lineup, tell yourself THEY dodged a bullet by not playing us.

 

I wanna curbstomp Dallas with all their starters in

Teach those FAs in NY what this div is all about

Hell, make Wentz lock himself back in the can to hide his tears

 

Be a winner, a team to be feared, that team others dance around and avoid, hell be the strength on schedule yourself!

 

And all this namby pamby whiny BS disappears

[TSO]

Great post, LD.

I think this is the mentality the players have right now, and what the organization is fostering starting with Scot and Jay... but it's going to take some time for the fans to get there, which is understandable.

At this point, it's almost inscribed on our hearts and minds that this upcoming season is going to be a failure. No matter what the neocortex comprehends, the mid brain and reptilian are taking over, lol.

Winning streak to end the season after it being mostly up and down? Check.

Quick exit out of the playoffs? Check.

Excitement during the subsequent offseason for the direction of the franchise? Check.

Dan Snyder as owner throughout all of this? Check.

Those things have happened four times in the last ten years and we've followed them up with absolute stinkers of seasons. Like, historically bad seasons for the most part.

So it makes sense that people are paranoid and even panicked.

But then the logic gets applied. And you're forced to recognize that this time is actually different, and that it's not only a possibility, but a likelihood that it's real.

Because the FO is actually properly structured for the first time.

Because we actually have a legitimate talent evaluator as GM.

Because we actually have a ton of young talent being coached and developed, with actual results already produced.

Because said coaching staff has largely remained in tact.

Because we have a QB who just set franchise records while working in an offense that was purposely designed to be extremely conservative for most of the season.

Yeaaah. The fans will get there. These type of posts won't be homerrific, anymore. Just reality. And we'll have a new dynamic to deal with... obnoxiously arrogant Skins fans.

[Darth Tater]

thesubmiitedone,

 

One thing that you did not mention that we fans may take heart in.  We looked strong at the end of 1998, going 6-3 after the bye week. Half of our losses were by about a play.  1999 was by no means a surprise.  We looked very strong at the end of 2004, 2005 was not a surprise.  With the exception of how we did it, 2007 was not a surprise.  The 2011 defense was the best defense we've fielded since 2007 and we got the one of the big pieces we were missing so 2012 was not a shock.  2014 was a hot mess, 2015 looked to be the year that Gruden would be canned (even up to the first half to the TB game) and the best hope is the Scott would make us his team. Our 2015 season was most definitely a surprise.

[clskinsfan]

I just cant see us finishing worse than the Eagles. They are a complete dumpster fire right now. Dallas and NY both have a lot of talent on their roster's. But so do we. I wouldnt be completely shocked if we finish 3rd in the division. I would kinda be shocked if we won the division again to be honest. I mean no one has gone back to back in the NFCE since Philly did it in 03-04.

[LD0506]

Pffft, talent alone in a dysfunctional org can't produce, haven't we of all people seen that? Dallas is in denial, completely ignoring all the valid reasons they reeked last year and putting it all on romoSUCKS's absence. NY? That team trying the high-priced FA quick fix? Again, haven't we seen that before? The excuses will be flying thick n fast by Halloween, mark my words.

 

People dismissing Philly need to look beyond the sound bites, hiring Schwartz as DC will make a difference there, the guy can flat out coach like a mf'er. Their D is going to keep them alive until their O decides if it can.

 

The Skins need to keep doin' what they're doin', we have a lot of new faces and a lot of good players back from injury, and you only need one or two to make a difference. Junior full bore can change games, Josh comfy here can change games, Callahan with a full complement on the line can change games, there are a lot of reasons to be positive. As far as I'm concerned, the rest of the div needs to worry 'bout us!

[TheGreek1973]

I will say it again, when you need to evaluate a team in the NFL you must evaluate coaching staff/front office as well as players first and foremost.  In addition, just as important, depth.  This is where these so called experts miss this year, we are the most talented team when it comes to depth, even at the QB position.  When the injury bug bites, there isn't a team in the NFCE that can hold a candle to us because our front office has done an awesome job picking up talented players that can step in and perform.  Maybe the Giants are semi-close to us in that respect but we all know that Dallas, they lose a single star (be it romoSUCKS, Dez, Zeke, Lee, etc) their team doesn't much talent to step in and be serviceable.

[ntotoro]

That buttnugget Chris Russell, who practically gets worshiped here for whatever reason, still thinks Dan Snyder is the reason Cousins isn't getting paid.

 

Nick

[Conn]

That buttnugget Chris Russell, who practically gets worshiped here for whatever reason, still thinks Dan Snyder is the reason Cousins isn't getting paid.

Nick

Actually other than two members who have met/know him personally he is pretty much universally disliked here on ES.

[bobandweave]

Not sure if ya'll seen this one

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/balanced-roster-gives-redskins-shot-at-nfc-east-championship-repeat/

 

But they say

 

 

 

While far from ideal, their deficiencies are unlikely to prove crippling. Washington is in a better position to cope than the Cowboys with their depleted defensive line, the Eagles with a receiving corps that leaves a lot to be desired and the Giants with a pair of turnstile tackles. While their division rivals have more star quality, Washington has fewer weaknesses top to bottom.

 

and

 

The NFC East should be tight again in 2016. Each team has a chance of taking the division. Washington, however, have the strongest claim on the favorite’s label because of their roster’s ideal blend of balance and depth. With few weaknesses, and the bodies to rotate when necessary, they may well repeat as NFC East champs next season.

 

So one of these fools is correct, I'm going with we got a chance and staying medium. Only thing that gives me pause is that brutal schedule. If we can get through that then look out, we will be battle tested and will be tough to be in the playoffs by anyone

[NeverSurrender]

When we beat the Steelers in week one people will start to respect us.

[LD0506]

When we beat the Steelers in week one people will start to respect us.

 

See, this guy gets it!

 

I'm tired of hearing about the schedule, as far as I'm concerned, the rest of the division needs to worry about us being on theirs, 2 games against us, the two the week after when they're limping and busted up. We get a break, we don't have to play us!

[TheGreatBuzz]

As much as  the schedule has been discussed on here< I can't believe it is still being brought up as a major point against us.  90% of our schedule is the same as the rest of the NFCE.  So what is the problem?

[bobandweave]

We might be seriously better this year then last season and be looking at ending up with a worse record because of the schedule. That's why it matters and no other NFC East opponant has as bad a schedule as we do. Some of you may be tired of hearing about this but any conversation about this team and where it ends up in the 2016 season must start there

 

 

 

It’s hard to remember a stretch that in April looks as daunting as the one the Redskins face starting in late October, when they play Cincinnati in London, and stretching into mid-December. Of the seven games Washington will play during this stretch, five are against teams that made the playoffs and were a combined 61-19 last season with four division titles. And the other two games are against divisional opponents on the road, including one against the team that could be the preseason NFC East favorite (Dallas). Topping this stretch off is a Monday night game against Carolina followed by a Saturday game at Chicago. Did I mention the three consecutive road games for the first time since 2002? Spare me the conspiracy theories, but we can all agree the schedule-makers did the Redskins no favors in the second half of the season. At least they play two straight home games to open the season for the third time in five years.

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/washington-redskins/post/_/id/24509/washington-redskins-face-brutal-seven-game-stretch

 

Furthermore only two teams this year have 3 consecutive road games on the schedule, us and the Packers. The NFL gave the Packers a 4 game home stand and only gave us a 2 game home stand.

 

Furthermore when you look at the last five games played against the teams we play this season we only have a winning record against  Cleveland, Philly, Cardinals, and the Bears in the last five games played

 

http://redskinscapitalconnection.com/redskins-2016-schedule-breakdown/

 

I'm not saying the season is impossible but we all should realize the hard road ahead of us.

 

If we can some how make it to the playoffs after getting through that we will go deep and I'm sticking to that, that's a big big IF to me so expectations are lower then they might normally be for me right now which is good. We need to be battle tested and that's what we are going to get

 

If anyone doesn't like me using Us~We~or similar type words when speaking of the Redskins team sorry bad habit

[RedskinsLegacy]

I would rather be the underdog and dominate, than be crowned the champs and utterly disappoint "Cowboys"!

See ya in the Playoffs!

[Stefanskins]

yes take the Skins early and often next regular season

[Skinsinparadise]

I beat this drum last year and will continue to this year and that is I don't think there is a team in the division that disrespects us more than the Giants.   But for whatever reason for many Redskins fans they are the team to be ok with in the division. 

 

I recall Coughlin smirking and even gave a small nod when asked before the game against the Redskins last year whether they have a beat on the Redskins scheme and that's why they've done so well against them.  Guys like Wynn who played for both teams said the Giants have no respect for the Redskins and always expected to beat them.  We had the A. Rolle comment years ago about how embarassing it was to lose to the Redskins and they'd beat the Redskins 99 times out of 100.   We got Mara on the cap penalty.

 

The NY papers were comically arrogant and disrespectful last season to the Redskins before the game against the Giants.  And now, I see this which I take as the Giants saying hey we lost to those guys?  The lowly Redskins?  How embarassing!  

 

IMO, that team should be disliked at the same level if not more than Philly and Dallas.  And bringing this point home, I've noticed they are getting in some of the football magazines more respect than us.  You'd think they went 10-6 last season, not 6-10.

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/washington-redskins/post/_/id/25334/nfc-east-qa-should-the-redskins-be-the-favorite-to-repeat-as-division-champs

 

Dan Graziano, Giants: The 2015 loss that annoyed the New York Giants the most was the one in Washington. Their defense hasn’t had a lot of success overall in recent years, but they firmly believe they know how to beat Washington, as they had five times in a row before that post-Thanksgiving defeat last year. Kirk Cousins has eight interceptions and just three touchdown passes in four career games against the Giants, who remain confident in their ability to catch him in mistakes by forcing him to throw downfield. Cousins may have turned a corner last year and become more consistent and reliable, but my sense is that the Giants are going to have to see it first-hand a few more times before they believe it.

[Reaper Skins]

^^^ Couldn't agree more.  I've hated the Giants way more over the last decade than Dallas, mostly because they seem to always have our number.  Plus they cheat incessantly both on and off the field in order to get homefield advantage.  Refs make one-sided calls favoring their team when they play at home.  Players faking injuries without reprocussions, players punching opponents without reprocussions, owners stealing money from other teams without reprocussions.  They are the most crooked organization in the NFL (with the exception of the Patriots) and they have the nerve to act like they have the moral high ground by heading up the competition committee.

 

Its unfair, its cheating, and it WILL catch up to them one day.  Peyton Manning got to ride off into the sunset and retire.  Eli manning has the current ironman streak and is reaching the twilight of his career.  With the "spend everything to win now" way they approached the offseason it would not surprise me in the least if they make another "miraculous" late season push to get Eli one more chance at a Super Bowl before he retires.

 

I'm going to be paying extra attention to the amount of "last second comebacks" and heroic plays that happen for the Giants this season.  Something tells me they will be getting some very lucky calls in tight games.  In my opinion they will be our biggest challenge for the division title.