2015 Washington Nationals Thread - Hot Stove News: Daniel Murphy signed, Phillips is an idiot.

[Slateman]

I told you before. Our "Big 3" is more of fan misperception, media hype, than a reality.

I also told you I wanted to add another arm, last year, in preparation for the playoffs.

I told you that J. Zimm was our ACE and that's all we really could hang our hat on. I said we needed to stop using regular season era to arbitrarily notch wins for the postseason, different beast. YOU all said, "pitching is fine."

Well, I think you should be asking yourself the same question you posed to me. Simply said, Straus ain't the ACE. He's a #4 in our rotation now. Let that sink in vis-a-vis fan perception. And Gio has declined steadily since year-1.

I know you wanted bats last summer, but I never got your treatise on the matter. I was fine with trading Laroche last year, especially to improve 2nd base or to get a better situational bat. We all knew moving R.Zimm to 1st was the endgame. I was fine with getting rid of Espi.

And I also told you that the bats would naturally rise back to level as guys got healthier and they did.

I was fine with Souza gets ABs. I wanted Walters to get more ABs. We all know about Dezi's situational hitting and we've seen the flashes of Rendon's bat. I was ok with going balls-out after a premiere bat for 1st base. I was even fine with going after an outfield bat ... the name escapes me right now, can't remember if was someone from the Rockies or Red Sox.

I was perfectly fine with trading for some bats, but it had to be the right guy.

I still haven't got your thesis on how we get our superbat by having Miggy man 1st base for us?

The pitching was fine. It wasn't the problem. Pitching doesn't guarantee you post season success. Particularly starting pitching.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Your starting pitchers gave up 4 Runs, 2ERs in 24.2 innings in October. You didn't lose cause of a starting pitching problem.

I'm still looking bigger picture. You have a hole at 2B and will be replacing your SS after this season ... I look at this move as insurance to losing Zimmermann and Fister next year ... but also allowing us to use Zimmermann as trade bait this year to bring in some top infield and pitching prospects.

 

Having Scherzer makes Zimmermann expendable. 

 

If we weren't going to be able to sign Zimmermann beyond 2015 ... this allows us to replace him and then trade him for 2-3 big prospects that will ready us for the future as well.

 

Or you just have a dominant staff this year and get pick compensation next, and still have Zimmermann's replacement.

[Slateman]

Strasburg thing makes no sense. Not sure I understand it at all.

And we just agreed on arbitration numbers. Again, just not seeing it.

May be misdirection from Rizzo. However, I think a rift has formed between Strasburg and management. He just has not developed in the way he was touted coming out of the draft. First it was the shutdown. Then it was too hot. Then the icy hot. Then issues with the mound. And then last season he was good, except that he kept getting taken yard like it was cool. I think that he and his coaches had a disagreement in how he should pitch. Combine that with him being mentally soft (IMO) and Strasburg may want to leave.

If given my choice of keeping Strasburg or Zimmermann long term, I'd want JZ.

[Hersh]

I'm still looking bigger picture. You have a hole at 2B and will be replacing your SS after this season ... I look at this move as insurance to losing Zimmermann and Fister next year ... but also allowing us to use Zimmermann as trade bait this year to bring in some top infield and pitching prospects.

 

Having Scherzer makes Zimmermann expendable. 

 

If we weren't going to be able to sign Zimmermann beyond 2015 ... this allows us to replace him and then trade him for 2-3 big prospects that will ready us for the future as well.

 

Or you just have a dominant staff this year and get pick compensation next, and still have Zimmermann's replacement.

 

I get that to a degree, but I was under the impression that the starting pitching pipeline the Nats have built up is pretty deep. Who doesn't start for the Nats if no one gets traded? Roark was great last season but seems the odd man and Scherzer's stats, including WAR, aren't that much better.

 

If the Nats are going to spend, go pay Nelson Cruz who does nothing but deliver huge in the postseason.

[SkinsHokieFan]

Jeff Passan ‏@JeffPassan  2m2 minutes ago

The Nationals are a Ferrari amid Hondas and Toyotas. Time for them to step on the gas. Don't make a trade. Column: http://yhoo.it/1yzcKyy 

 

Again

I am again looking at this from an October perspective. The team only needs 85-90 wins to get the division

 

Add one more reliever and no pitching staff matches up against ours in October. 

[SkinsHokieFan]

Lineup

 

CF Span

3B Rendon

LF Harper

1B Zimmerman

RF Werth

SS Desmond

C Ramos

2B Escobar

P 

[Slateman]

I get that to a degree, but I was under the impression that the starting pitching pipeline the Nats have built up is pretty deep. Who doesn't start for the Nats if no one gets traded? Roark was great last season but seems the odd man and Scherzer's stats, including WAR, aren't that much better.

If the Nats are going to spend, go pay Nelson Cruz who does nothing but deliver huge in the postseason.

If you go by WAR, Scherzer is the best pitcher on the team.

Jeff Passan ‏@JeffPassan 2m2 minutes ago

The Nationals are a Ferrari amid Hondas and Toyotas. Time for them to step on the gas. Don't make a trade. Column: http://yhoo.it/1yzcKyy

Again

I am again looking at this from an October perspective. The team only needs 85-90 wins to get the division

Add one more reliever and no pitching staff matches up against ours in October.

Should be able to handle that at the deadline

[SkinsHokieFan]

On the sports fix Kevin Sheehan just asked Thom Loverro

 

"If Scherzer is on the roster, do the Nats win the series (vs the Giants"

 

Loverro: "Absolutely. Absolutely they do"

 

 

Tommy's logic being the Giants and Nats scored the exact same amount of runs. Says Nats got "out pitched" 

[Hersh]

If you go by WAR, Scherzer is the best pitcher on the team.

 

 

But depending on who he replaces they upgraded the staff by 1 or 2 WARs vs potential upgrades in other areas.

On the sports fix Kevin Sheehan just asked Thom Loverro

 

"If Scherzer is on the roster, do the Nats win the series (vs the Giants"

 

Loverro: "Absolutely. Absolutely they do"

 

 

Tommy's logic being the Giants and Nats scored the exact same amount of runs. Says Nats got "out pitched" 

 

The Tigers and A's tried to load up on Aces and neither made the LCS. Scherzer gave up more runs in 7 innings in the playoffs last year than all of the starters combined for the Nats. Check that, Nats starter gave up 5 runs, 2 ER so he gave up the same amount of runs and 3 more ERs.

[GoSkins0721]

But depending on who he replaces they upgraded the staff by 1 or 2 WARs vs potential upgrades in other areas.

 

The Tigers and A's tried to load up on Aces and neither made the LCS. Scherzer gave up more runs in 7 innings in the playoffs last year than all of the starters combined for the Nats. Check that, Nats starter gave up 5 runs, 2 ER so he gave up the same amount of runs and 3 more ERs.

 

Yeah, I don't think the Nats playoff losses were pitching related. They didn't hit. Anyone who watched the games saw it. 

 

I'm beginning to think the Scherzer trade is only part 1 or the 1st shoe to drop. Rizzo has to know replacing Cabrera with Escobar isn't much of an upgrade at the plate. I'm expecting some other big move before ST starts. 

[Mocountyskins]

I don't like this signing. Its a lot of money for a 30 year old pitcher who is going to be garbage once he loses his fastball

They another hitter or 2 more than anything

The money they gave Max could go to a hitter or they could get another quality pitcher from somewhere but a 30 year old who depends on his fastball not a good idea imo

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Interesting article by Jeff Passan on Yahoo ... calling the Nats a Ferrari in a world of Toyotas ... said Nats need to keep this squad together in 2015 and just put the pedal to the metal ...

 

Also, this has been thrown out regarding draft compensation ... but just think about THIS ...

 

If the Nats keep this team together for a run in 2015 ... then let Zimmermann, Fister and Desmond go in Free Agency ... the Nationals will STILL, at a minimum, have FOUR ... FOUR 1st round picks in 2016.

So yeah, you could trade for prospects and draft picks are far from guarantees ... but 4 first round picks is a TON. 

[Forehead]

I don't like this signing. Its a lot of money for a 30 year old pitcher who is going to be garbage once he loses his fastball

 

This isn't correct.  This was being discussed on the radio this morning.  The guy has already lost one or two mph off his fastball.  He's one of the best pitch locators in the game, just a tick behind Kershaw.  He'll be fine even if loses a few more mph.

[JoeWolf990]

Letting Desmond go is stupid. Hes one of the best SS in baseball and you're acting like he can be replaced so easily.

he is absolutely not one of the best SS in baseball.

He is a power hitter who strikes out a lot, doesnt walk, and doesnt get on base that much. He also isnt that good defensively, and that will get worse now that LaRoche is gone.

I advocated trading Desmond once the season is over because he isnt a guy we can win a World Series with.

A SS who has a good glove and gets on base is enough for this lineup.

[Slateman]

I don't like this signing. Its a lot of money for a 30 year old pitcher who is going to be garbage once he loses his fastball

They another hitter or 2 more than anything

The money they gave Max could go to a hitter or they could get another quality pitcher from somewhere but a 30 year old who depends on his fastball not a good idea imo

Uh, no offense, but have you seen Max's breaking stuff? It's awesome. And if you want to get technical, he is losing his fastball. Down 2 mph from 2013.

 

Max has really worked hard on location and movement the last three seasons. It shows. While he may never be the kind of starting pitcher that goes deep in to games, he should not see a tremendous drop off because of lost fastball velocity.

[Mocountyskins]

I just know that he has one of the best Fastballs in the bigs but in the other categories I thought he was just "Solid"

 

I like the move as long as we keep the rest of the pitchers. But if it costs us Zimmerman I think I'd rather have Zimmerman for longer even if he is not quite as good as a pitcher who is better but older. Idk. I should not even be commenting I only watch about 30 games a season because I can't watch day games.

[StillUnknown]

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/01/19/report-nationals-likely-to-host-the-2018-all-star-game/

 

 

 

Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post hears from “people with reason to know” that the Nationals almost certainly will host the 2018 All-Star Game, and the organization has already been notified.

 

The Padres were recently awarded the 2016 All-Star Game at Petco Park, making it back-to-back years for a National League host. James Wagner of the Post reported several days ago that Washington had been ruled out for the 2017 All-Star Game due to preexisting commitments with conventions and events. Baltimore and Miami are potential candidates to host the 2017 festivities.

[Slateman]

I just know that he has one of the best Fastballs in the bigs but in the other categories I thought he was just "Solid"

 

I like the move as long as we keep the rest of the pitchers. But if it costs us Zimmerman I think I'd rather have Zimmerman for longer even if he is not quite as good as a pitcher who is better but older. Idk. I should not even be commenting I only watch about 30 games a season because I can't watch day games.

He may not have had the best fastball on the Tigers, let alone in the bigs. He's second in K/9 in the last three seasons, behind Yu Darvish and ahead of Strasburg. You don't do that with a good fastball and "solid" stuff.

 

Anyway, as for Strasburg, if they do trade him, what about to the Rangers? Say for Profar/Ordor, Gallo, and Alfaro?

[Going Commando]

Yes SP was not the reason we lost to the Giants. It was the one part of the team that excelled. They beat us with inferior pitchers who we couldn't friggin hit.

But that's also not a reason not to sign Scherzer. You get to make more than one move an offseason. And adding Scherzer isn't about getting the one final piece to let us beat the Giants in last year's NLDS. Scherzer has pretty much been the third best picther in the majors the past three years. Adding him is about adding one of the best pitchers in the game, and for the kind of money we're spending, he's going to be one of our foundation players--not a hired gun for a few seasons to make a run with.

None of us like it, but Zim is probably gone by next year. Signing Scherzer is also about finding an adequate replacement for Zim so that at least we won't be stuck with our dicks in our hands when Zim walks. If it's nothing more than a 1:1 replacement for Zim, we ended up getting a better pitcher for less money per year than we could have kept Zim for.

[Dan T.]

Max will be paid $15M for the next 14 years

Jeezus. That's 7.5 mill a year for the blue eye and 7.5 mil a year for the brown eye.

And I have to believe they offered J. Zimmerman some similar big numbers that he turned down. I really get the sense that he wants to be back in the Midwest closer to home. And on ESPN 980 today - and I can't pull who it was - but a guy was on saying he has people telling him that Strasburg really wants to be back on the West Coast - preferably San Diego, his home town. I took it with a grain of salt because the guy didn't name his sources, but it left me with an uneasy feeling.

One thing about a team reloading like this is the danger of losing that intangible team "chemistry." Some scoff at that notion but I think it really is a factor. Sometimes the whole is greater than the sum of the parts, and sometimes the opposite is true. And there's no way of knowing until the seasons play out.

[grego]

Jeezus. That's 7.5 mill a year for the blue eye and 7.5 mil a year for the brown eye.

That's one highly paid brown eye.

[Taylor703]

he is absolutely not one of the best SS in baseball.

He is a power hitter who strikes out a lot, doesnt walk, and doesnt get on base that much. He also isnt that good defensively, and that will get worse now that LaRoche is gone.

I advocated trading Desmond once the season is over because he isnt a guy we can win a World Series with.

A SS who has a good glove and gets on base is enough for this lineup.

Yes, he is certainly one of the best SS in baseball.

[Dan T.]

Yes, he is certainly one of the best SS in baseball.

People have a tendency to really undervalue Desi. For whatever flaws he has, he's a damn good shortstop to have in your lineup.

[@DCGoldPants]

As a Nats fan, I honestly don't know what to think about all of this. 

 

Def doesn't feel like this is the final move though. I think somebody will be traded. Maybe 2 guys. Not sure who. Desi? JZimm? Roark? Fister? Something else is probably going to happen.

[Warhead36]

Desi is a real good SS, but he's the type of guy that will struggle in October due to his swing for the fences mentality and inability to grind out ABs or take walks.

 

I like him a lot, but he's not a $100 Mil a year type player. We have other guys on the team who hit for as much if not more power, we might be better off getting a better OBP guy to fill his shoes.

 

As SHF said, it's all about positioning ourselves for October. The team as is can get out of bed and win 90 games and that will win the NL East easily this year. And it's not like seeding matters in the baseball playoffs. Just gotta get in and after that it's a crapshoot.

 

I don't really care at all about how much $ we're paying Scherz either. People panicced when we signed Werth, saying we'd never be able to spend again. Then we gave record contracts to Stras and Harper(record for draft picks anyway). Then we gave Zimm a big extension. Money isn't an issue. The Lerners are loaded beyond belief.

 

Ultimately, signing Scherz means we can trade J Zimm for 2-3 prospects. So, would you rather have J Zimm, or Scherzer(who is at least as good as J Zimm albeit a couple of years older)AND 2-3 prospects?