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The Fully Analyzed 2015 NFL Draft Position Thread *Thread cleared, Redskins pick 5th in 2015*

Forehead

By Forehead
in The Stadium

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Commander Adama

Commander Adama

Posted
Posted

Blue Collar, I'm not sure why that's showing up as a quote of mine, but it is correct.

 

 

Yeah, I don't bother updating till after the Monday night game so I don't have to go back and make tweaks.  Tennessee is at least within striking distance SOS wise, it was 2.5 games going into this week.  As Moco said though, Jacksonville is a sure thing, if they win we move ahead of them, and at this point, I'll take the sure thing and let the rest fall where it may.  We might catch Tennessee yet.

*EDIT* Hey actually, not so bad.  I just did a quick calculation.  Our schedule went 7-9 this week while the Titans went 9-7.  We're only a 1/2 game behind them in the SOS department now!

 

Sorry about that Forehead. I quoted you and tried to edit it to reflect the article. I had changed Forehead to the context of the article but I guess it changed it back.

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Larry

Larry

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Still think rooting for Jax is the smart move. If Tenn wins, then start rooting for the tiebreaker.

Ah, but you're assuming that, what we root for, is more likely to happen.

When history indicates that, if that were true, this thread wouldn't exist.

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JamesMadisonSkins

JamesMadisonSkins

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Most likely to happen: Raiders go 0-2, Jags go 1-1, Titans go 0-2, Bucs go 0-2 ... Skins go 0-2 ... pick #4

Best case (in my book): Raiders go 0-2, Jags go 1-1 (lose to Titans, beat Texans), Titans go 1-1 (beat Jags), Bucs go 1-1 (Beat Saints)

 

Bucs, Titans, Jags, Redskins finish 3-13 ... Raiders finish 2-14

 

Raiders, Bucs, Redskins, Titans, Jags, Jets? I'm fuzzy on the tie-break ... we might still get 4th in that scenario. Man. 

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JamesMadisonSkins

JamesMadisonSkins

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So, I'm not sure if the ESPN standings SOS % are "to date" or include all current teams on the 16-game schedule but they currently have the SoS % as the following:

 

Tampa Bay: .472

Washington: .478

Tennessee: .525

Jacksonville: .530

New York Jets: .569

Oakland: .571

 

If those hold ... here is what we need to happen to get the #2 pick ...

 

Tennessee beats Jacksonville to finish 3-13

Jacksonville beats Houston to finish 3-13

Oakland beats Buffalo to finish 3-13

Washington loses out to finish 3-13

 

Tampa Bay would pick #1 with a 2-12 record

Washington would pick #2 with a 3-13 record but a tie-break over Jax, Ten and Oakland with SOS winning %

 

The logic reigns ... Jacksonville beats Tennessee and loses to Houston. Oakland loses out. Tennessee loses out. Redskins end up picking #4 behind Tampa, Tennessee, Oakland.

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Aireskoi

Aireskoi

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OK here's my hopes for the 3rd pick.

 

Bucs Lose Out - 1st Pick Raiders Lose Out - 2nd Pick

Redskins Lose Out - 3rd Pick

Titans -4th

Jags - 5th

 

Titans will beat Jags, then will lose to the Colts (who will probably beat the Cowboys).  

 

The Jags will then beat the Texans (who will lose to the Ravens).   

 

We (SOS 111) get 3rd pick beating out the 3 win Titans (SOS 112) and 3 win Jags (SOS 113).

 

Sorry if someone posted this and I missed it, I think it's the best case scenario.

 

 

Edit * I don't see Bills losing to the Raiders, but that could be a factor.

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Forehead

Forehead

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So, I'm not sure if the ESPN standings SOS % are "to date" or include all current teams on the 16-game schedule but they currently have the SoS % as the following:

 

Tampa Bay: .472

Washington: .478

Tennessee: .525

Jacksonville: .530

New York Jets: .569

Oakland: .571

 

 

They aren't, I think that's only through the 14 teams we've played.  Take our .478 and add the records of Philly and Dallas to it for the next two games, a combined 19-9, and you'll see us jump to the .500 or so I have us at in the OP.  It's kind of lazy to do it ESPN's way, those games are going to happen and be added in eventually, why not just do it from the get-go?  That's also why Tennessee's drops below us, FYI, adding a 2-11 Jacksonville team into their SOS is a recipe for it to plummet.

 

At this point, I honestly think the Bucs are a lost cause and the #1 is out of reach, but there's still a faint glimmer of hope.  Oakland has games against Buffalo and Denver, they win either of those, they're behind us, cut and dry.  I'm pretty sure the Jags are in the same boat.

 

So the question is, which way do you want to go?  Take the sure thing and root for the Jags, guaranteeing us another draft slot?  Or root for Tennessee and hope for a game of SOS help, knowing that the Titans play the Colts week 17 while the Jags play the Texans, something you can at least envision them having a chance in.

 

Too many variables for me.  I'm rooting for the Jags to win to get the sure draft slot, then hope the Raiders can pull one out against the Bills to get us one more.

OK here's my hopes for the 3rd pick.

 

Bucs Lose Out - 1st Pick Raiders Lose Out - 2nd Pick

Redskins Lose Out - 3rd Pick

Titans -4th

Jags - 5th

 

 

We (SOS 111) get 3rd pick beating out the 3 win Titans (SOS 112) and 3 win Jags (SOS 113).

 

 

 

What are SOS 111, SOS 112, and SOS 113?

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Mocountyskins

Mocountyskins

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OT, I was talking to a classmate who said that Williams is the best DL prospect since Sapp but I can't find that comparison anywhere has anyone else heard that? I want the best Olineman or Landon Collins but top 3 is too early for Collins. Imo Mariota will be the bust out of the 2 QBs. Winston is more of a leader. I hear that Mariota is a really quiet shy guy

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JamesMadisonSkins

JamesMadisonSkins

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I could see the Raiders beating the Bills since it's in Oakland ... but the Bills defense is suffocating.

 

I guess I will be rooting for:

Bucs to beat Saints

Jags to beat Titans

Raiders to beat Bills

 

That should get us the #3 pick ... or possibly the #2 depending on the bucs tie-break

 

In my mind, that's a bit more realistic than rooting for the Titans to beat the Jags but then the Jags to beat the Texans.

 

That said, Fitzpatrick broke his leg ... Mallet is already out, so the Texans would be rolling with Tom Savage. 

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Gallen5862

Gallen5862

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http://www.csnwashington.com/redskinsblog/redskins-draft-slot-moves-notch

 

Redskins' draft slot moves up a notch

The silver lining in the Redskins’ 27-13 loss to the Giants yesterday was that they moved up a notch in the NFL draft order.

If the season ended today the Redskins would be picking fifth. They were in the six hole last week but their loss and the Jets’ win over the Titans tied those two teams at 3-11. The Jets’ opponents have won 123 games and the Redskins’ have won 109 so Washington gets the strength of schedule tiebreaker. New York’s remaining games are at home against the Patriots and at the Dolphins.

The four teams currently holding draft position all are 2-12. Here they are with the number of wins their opponents currently have and the remaining two games on their schedule:

Current position, Team, opponent wins, remaining games

1. Bucs, 104, Packers, Saints
2. Titans, 109, @ Jaguars, Colts
3. Jaguars, 113, Titans, @ Texans
4. Raiders, 131, Bills, @ Broncos

So a lot could happen. If you’re looking for a team to “root” for on Thursday night football, pull for the Jaguars since one of the teams will tie the Redskins with three wins and Washington holds the tiebreaker over the Jaguars but not the Titans (note that head to head record has no bearing on breaking ties for draft position).

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Forehead

Forehead

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See Gallen5862's post above.  I should have explained better, but it's opponent's strength of schedule (SOS).  Their opponent's wins added up.

 

Gotcha, I wonder if Tandler is lifting information from this thread without giving credit.  Either way, it isn't entirely accurate.  Because of the Carolina-Cincy tie, many teams have half wins. Half points can be crucial in gambling, I don't understand why they would round them here.

 

Is one of you Tramell Canady?

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Forehead

Forehead

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Alright folks, we're fully updated through Week 15.  I had to really agonize over a few games this week, trying to play out various scenarios, and I think we have to face the facts.  Even with a win, I think the Titans are uncatchable.  They're only .5 a game ahead of us in SOS, but to get them to even eight wins this week, I'm asking for things like the Jets beating the Patriots and the Bengals beating the Broncos.  Week 17 is divisional week, meaning a lot of opponents on your schedule are going to be playing each other, so there's going to be a lot of 8-8 weeks.

 

At this point, I think it is safer to root for the Jaguars so we can secure that draft spot, and root for the Raiders so we can pick up another one there.  That will settle us in at #3.  There are a few games like Colts-Cowboys and Ravens-Texans which have some SOS implications, but ultimately I don't think there's enough out there to help us get the job done.

 

The worst that can happen is the Raiders losing, the Titans winning, but not getting enough help elsewhere.  Then we're still stuck at #5 with nothing to show for our "efforts."

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Larry

Larry

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OK, if I'm reading things correctly, then Larry's interpretation of things:

Right now, TB, Tenn, Jax, and Oak are drafting ahead of us.

Barring divine intervention, TB and Oak are gonna stay ahead of us. (In fact, for TB to move behind us, it would take divine intervention twice.)

 

However, Tenn and Jax, if they win a game, they move behind us.  And they have games coming up which they could win. 

 

In fact, next week, they play each other.  One of those teams is pretty much guaranteed to move behind us. 

 

And, after those teams play each other, Jax plays Houston, who they might beat.  (Tenn's final game is against the Colts, so they're guaranteed to lose that one.) 

 

So: 

 

We're pretty much guaranteed to move up to 4th, next week, because somebody between Tenn/Jax has to win. 

 

And, if

 

1)  Tenn beats Jax, next week (and moves behind us).

2)  Jax beats Houston, in week 17 (and moves behind us)

 

Then there's a chance we draft #3. 

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ExoDus84

ExoDus84

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OK, if I'm reading things correctly, then Larry's interpretation of things

 

Referring to yourself in the 3rd person aside, If Jacksonville wins they would still pick ahead of us. I'm pretty sure head-to-head win percentage is the first tiebreaker, and since they would also have 3 wins (assuming we lose to philthy), they would still pick ahead of us.

 

So, root for Tennessee. Jacksonville would have to win both of their next 2 games to move behind us.

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Forehead

Forehead

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Exodus...for the love of God, please go read the OP.  Head to head match-ups mean nothing for the draft.  Even if you were right (which you aren't) did you forget we also played and beat Tennessee, so rooting for them would also be useless in your version of things.

 

Larry, you're close.  Here's a quick way to keep things straight.

 

1. Jacksonville and Oakland move behind us with any win.

 

2. With Tennessee, we'd need a win and a little help.  More on this in a second.

 

3. The Bucs are pretty much uncatchable, they'd have to win their last two games against Green Bay and New Orleans.

 

With Tennessee, we're only 1/2 a game behind them in SOS tiebreakers, but because of the way the games are set up, it's going to be tough to catch them.  As an example, we need to lose to Philly, but doing that adds a loss and a win to their SOS (because they played us and Philly) and adds two wins to our SOS because Philly is on our schedule twice.  But we have to lose to maintain our position, there's no way around it.  Similarly, if we wanted Tennessee to win, they'd get two extra losses on their SOS because of Jacksonville.

 

Week 17 is going to be even harder because there are so many divisional games.  As in, we played the NFC West, they all play each other week 17, so that's an automatic 2-2.  But it's going to be like that for almost the entire schedule, there will only be 1-2 games where we may be able to make up any ground.

 

That's why I'm saying root Jacksonville, take the sure thing.  And root for Oakland to beat Buffalo, because that would be another.  There are no guarantees with the Titans.  3rd may be the best we can hope for.  If Tennessee beats Jacksonville, it's not a sure thing that we move past them.

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