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The Fully Analyzed 2015 NFL Draft Position Thread *Thread cleared, Redskins pick 5th in 2015*

Forehead

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Forehead

Forehead

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Raiders are not the top pick at this point per CBS...

 

I know.  The OP is currently updated through Week 13.  I don't update it until all the games, including the Monday night game, are played, so I don't have to update all the SOS stuff more than once per week.  Updates will occur today.

 

Noting that you posted this at 6:45 a.m., damn you are impatient. ;)

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Forehead

Forehead

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Alright guys, the OP has been completely updated for Week 14.  Reflected in this update are the Raiders dropping four spots with their win, updated schedules, and updated dream scenario, etc.

 

A new feature you may enjoy is a breakdown of just how hard it is to make up SOS ground this late in the season, and how even if things went totally our way in terms of moving up in the draft this week, we'd actually lose ground to two of the worst teams.  Let's see how Week 15 plays out.

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redskins4ever28

redskins4ever28

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We wont get first pick because our luck is too awful for that.

However, if by some crazy miracle we got it, I think its impossible not to take Mariotta, depending on his play in the next couple playoff/nc games etc;

Mariotta is being talked up by everyone, even though the system QB thing worries me, hes also got the potential to be amazing.  Im not a fan of running QBs but if hes a runner like Luck or Newton, that would be ok for me.

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Rufus T Firefly

Rufus T Firefly

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Alright guys, the OP has been completely updated for Week 14.  Reflected in this update are the Raiders dropping four spots with their win, updated schedules, and updated dream scenario, etc.

 

A new feature you may enjoy is a breakdown of just how hard it is to make up SOS ground this late in the season, and how even if things went totally our way in terms of moving up in the draft this week, we'd actually lose ground to two of the worst teams.  Let's see how Week 15 plays out.

That's really good work. I remember making a similar argument in the past, about how all the common opponents or two opponents playing each other made it really hard for the numbers to move this late. Although I didn't do it anywhere near as well or detailed.

 

The Titans are the team I've been watching with regards to that. They could still move ahead (behind?) us. As of last week, I had some hope that Tampa could move, but it looks unlikely now. 

 

One quibble is you say it's "likely" New Orleans will be playing for the division in the last week. It's certainly possible, but I wouldn't use the word likely. There are too many things at play. With them playing Chicago this week and Atlanta playing Pitt and then the head to head being in New Orleans, there is actually a pretty decent chance NO will have clinched the division and be resting starters in week 17. Or, if they both win this week and Atlanta beats them in week 16, then Atlanta clinches it. Or they could go into the final week tied, which would technically have NO still alive, but being down in the tiebreaker, really knowing they have little chance.

 

BTW, Cam's injury sure opens up a potential for a TB win this week.

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JamesMadisonSkins

JamesMadisonSkins

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Looks like ... with the remaining matches, if we lose out we should be at least 3rd. I'm rooting for the Titans over the Jets but then the Jags over the Titans ... which would leave all 3 with 3 wins. I think we would leap frog all of them. Then if the Raiders can win ... which they very well could the way they're playing, if we lose out we have the #2 pick? 

 

Rooting for the Bucs to beat the Panthers AND Saints to finish 4-12 and give us the #1 pick since I doubt we take them over in the tie-break. 

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Forehead

Forehead

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Looks like ... with the remaining matches, if we lose out we should be at least 3rd. I'm rooting for the Titans over the Jets but then the Jags over the Titans ... which would leave all 3 with 3 wins. I think we would leap frog all of them. Then if the Raiders can win ... which they very well could the way they're playing, if we lose out we have the #2 pick? 

 

Rooting for the Bucs to beat the Panthers AND Saints to finish 4-12 and give us the #1 pick since I doubt we take them over in the tie-break. 

 

We're behind the Titans in the tiebreak as well.  If they only have three wins, we'd need help to jump them.  If the Jets and Jags beat them (assuming losses by us) it's a guarantee of at least #4.  If the Raiders win again, we jump them easy, so that's #3.  It's the Titans and Bucs that need to win twice for any assurances.

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Forehead

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So jets win to get to 3-11.

 

Yep, that will get us to #5.  I'll need to see how the SOS played out this week to determine where we stand vs. the Titans.  If they look uncatchable, we'll need to pull hard for the Jaguars next week.  The Bucs are almost assuredly out of reach unless they sweep their next two.  A shame really, they've come damned close in several games.

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Commander Adama

Commander Adama

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http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/jets-win--jets-win------and-also-lose-2015-draft-pick-positioning-005655714.html

 

The Jets' 16-11 victory (and yes, it was ugly as that score looks on your screen) was the team's third victory of the season, and it moved them behind the glut of four two-win teams that includes the Titans in the race for the first overall pick in the 2015 NFL draft.

Yes, the Jets' win Sunday was really a loss.

As things stand, the top of the draft looks like this:

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2. Tennessee Titans
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
4. Oakland Raiders
5. Washington Redskins
6. New York Jets

The Jets and Redskins each have three wins, but the Redskins would pick ahead of them because the winning percentage of their opponents is far lower.

Can the Jets move up for a quarterback? We shall see — plenty of time to debate that one. Maybe Ryan was trying to sabotage the Jets' chances of getting Mariota by trying to win this game, realizing that it wasn't likely to save his job status.

More interesting to the top of the draft is the fact that the Titans and Jaguars play on Thursday to kick off Week 16. And that is the only interesting thing about that game.

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Larry

Larry

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Tenn/Jax matchup hopefully will benefit us. What's SOS of tjose teams compared to ours.

We can pencil in 3-13

If I'm reading the OP correctly, looking at SOS, (which has not been updated for this week), then, if Tenn is tied with us, they'd draft ahead of us. But if Jax moves to 3 wins, they draft behind us.

One "good thing" is, with Philly and Dalas being so thick in the playoff fight, they're pretty much guaranteed to both slaughter us.

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Forehead

Forehead

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Blue Collar, I'm not sure why that's showing up as a quote of mine, but it is correct.

 

If I'm reading the OP correctly, looking at SOS, (which has not been updated for this week), then, if Tenn is tied with us, they'd draft ahead of us. But if Jax moves to 3 wins, they draft behind us.

One "good thing" is, with Philly and Dalas being so thick in the playoff fight, they're pretty much guaranteed to both slaughter us.

 

Yeah, I don't bother updating till after the Monday night game so I don't have to go back and make tweaks.  Tennessee is at least within striking distance SOS wise, it was 2.5 games going into this week.  As Moco said though, Jacksonville is a sure thing, if they win we move ahead of them, and at this point, I'll take the sure thing and let the rest fall where it may.  We might catch Tennessee yet.


*EDIT* Hey actually, not so bad.  I just did a quick calculation.  Our schedule went 7-9 this week while the Titans went 9-7.  We're only a 1/2 game behind them in the SOS department now!

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