I don't like President Obama's new immigration Reform

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

It will be interesting to see how this plays out, if the President is successful in granting amnesty for what looks to be a significant number of illegal immigrants into this country.   Based on what has been reported, the numbers will continue to increase and it is at least logical to consider the possibility of even more to follow. 

 

This may not be all that popular with the Hispanic community currently living here in the U.S.   This means that the price of poker, for all who have been here and are working here, has just gone up.  There are only so many jobs available.   It is a very real possibility that this might be viewed as a negative. 

 

No idea how that might play.

 

"This may or may not hurt the President."

 

That's the kind of thoughtful political analysis that brings me back to this board time and time again.

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

I keep reading this from you and I think you have a fundamental misunderstanding if the economics of outsourcing.

 

Yea....I'm not quite following the illegals prevent outsourcing argument unless it's some kind of backdoor argument against a minimum wage.

 

I think illegals do a lot of jobs that the vast majority of Americans don't even know exist - migrant farm work, seasonal low-skilled labor, etc.

 

I know twa is the Texas expert and may in fact be our next governor, but I live here too. What seems to be fundamentally misunderstood is how fluid illegal immigration is. It's not like everyone crosses the border, rents a garage apartment, gets food stamps, and starts working at a gas station.

 

A lot of these dudes work here for a few months, go back home for a while, and come back when the work is available again. That's actually becoming more difficult to do because - believe it or not - the border security is tighter than it's been in forever. But that has been the pattern for hundres of thousands if not millions. The public perception seems to be that the traffic only goes one way, and that's not necessarily the case.

 

It does get a little more complicated when people bring their families over and start having children on US soil.

[zoony]

Labor is not the big saving of outsourcing. It's quite minor actually

Environmental restrictions

Taxes

That's where you look. The dirty secret of the Chinese economic explosion is that cheap labor was a small part of it.

Mexico has cheap labor. Plus you can avoid 12 week lead times. They haven't experienced the same ridiculous amount if foreign investment though if it were about labor costs, they would have

[ABQCOWBOY]

Yea....I'm not quite following the illegals prevent outsourcing argument unless it's some kind of backdoor argument against a minimum wage.

 

I think illegals do a lot of jobs that the vast majority of Americans don't even know exist - migrant farm work, seasonal low-skilled labor, etc.

 

I know twa is the Texas expert and may in fact be our next governor, but I live here too. What seems to be fundamentally misunderstood is how fluid illegal immigration is. It's not like everyone crosses the border, rents a garage apartment, gets food stamps, and starts working at a gas station.

 

A lot of these dudes work here for a few months, go back home for a while, and come back when the work is available again. That's actually becoming more difficult to do because - believe it or not - the border security is tighter than it's been in forever. But that has been the pattern for hundres of thousands if not millions. The public perception seems to be that the traffic only goes one way, and that's not necessarily the case.

 

It does get a little more complicated when people bring their families over and start having children on US soil.

 

 

Good post. 

 

I would also point out that many, many illegals are not working for Minimum Wage.   I know that in the case of workers who are working under the table, they are not low balling jobs to the point of Minimum Wage.   They are bidding jobs just under what you might hire a legal firm to do the work, which is considerably more then Minimum Wage.   Illegal is not code for stupid.   Illegals understand the economics around their customer base as well.

 

Add in the costs benefits of not hiring legally employed workforce and it allows for a decent living. 

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

Labor is not the big saving of outsourcing. It's quite minor actually

Environmental restrictions

Taxes

That's where you look. The dirty secret of the Chinese economic explosion is that cheap labor was a small part of it.

Mexico has cheap labor. Plus you can avoid 12 week lead times. They haven't experienced the same ridiculous amount if foreign investment though if it were about labor costs, they would have

 

Those two are big; I think the biggest incentive China provides is flat out cash. They will build you that high-tech plant and find the staff and ship them in from Beijing and build the dorm for you.

 

Mexico does none of that. My company actually tried to open a call center in Mexico (before all the murders drove away American investment) and getting any kind of government support was unbelievably difficult.

[PeterMP]

This is probably a waste of my time, but:

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1465-7287.2010.00208.x/full

 

The below are the results of models of what happens if you restrict illegal immigration.

 

"Column 4 of Table 2 shows long-run deviation results for industry outputs. Because the SR simulation gives a positive long-run deviation in the real exchange rate (Chart 3), trade-exposed industries show output deviations in 2019 that are more negative than that for GDP. The long-run deviation in Construction is also slightly more negative than that of GDP, in line with the long-run investment deviation (Chart 3). Non-trade-exposed consumption-oriented industries, mainly services, have output deviations that are less negative than that for GDP."

 

Trade exposed industries are hit hard.  The jobs leave the US because yes, there are illegal immigrants out there making less than the minimum wage and if that doesn't happen there will be more pressure for those jobs to leave.

 

And if those jobs leave, then the higher paying jobs above them will also leave the US.

 

Service jobs, which are less non-trade exposed (e.g. mowing my lawn) are less negative, but still negative.

 

Why?

Because I worked for a company that was in business in the US because it was employeeing illegal immigrants.  When that stopped, it went out of business or moved and my job went away, and I no longer had money to pay somebody to mow my lawn.

 

"In broad terms, the employment results in Table 1 show a long-run transfer of U.S. legal employment from Services other to the occupations that currently employ large numbers of illegal immigrants. The regression of legal-job deviations in column (2) against the illegal shares in column (1) gives an R² of 0.998. Consistent with the demand-supply theory of wage determination (Section II.E), the wage results for legal residents in column (3) reflect the employment results in column (2). Regressing column (3) against column (2) gives an R² of 0.999.

 

At the aggregate level, the long-run deviation in legal employment is −0.16% (column [2], Table 1): in the absence of supply shocks to the legal workforce, restricting illegal immigration can have no more than a minor effect on aggregate long-run employment of legal residents. With illegal employment falling by 28.6%, giving a 28.4% reduction in the illegal/legal employment ratio, USAGE implies that the average illegal/legal wage rate ratio must increase by 9.2%. This is brought about by a 9.5% increase in the real wage (consumer-price-deflated) of illegal workers combined with a 0.3% increase for legal workers."

 

For legal workers, there is a shift (from easy) service jobs to harder jobs that are currently done by illegal workers.

 

And there are actually fewer jobs for legal workers (by a small amount -0.16%).

 

The effect has a small positive affect on legal workers salaries (i.e. 0.3%).

 

The effects are small in general (which I also stated in the other thread).  The effect on GDP is negative.  The effect on legal jobs is negative.

 

And the effects on legal worker salaries are small but positive

 

Jobs will leave the US and that will have a trickle down affect especially as the jobs we are talking about are to people that spend a lot of their money in the US.

 

And I can post similar things from lot's of different studies.

 

But I don't know what I'm talking about.

[Bliz]

Yea....I'm not quite following the illegals prevent outsourcing argument unless it's some kind of backdoor argument against a minimum wage.

 

I think illegals do a lot of jobs that the vast majority of Americans don't even know exist - migrant farm work, seasonal low-skilled labor, etc.

 

I know twa is the Texas expert and may in fact be our next governor, but I live here too. What seems to be fundamentally misunderstood is how fluid illegal immigration is. It's not like everyone crosses the border, rents a garage apartment, gets food stamps, and starts working at a gas station.

 

A lot of these dudes work here for a few months, go back home for a while, and come back when the work is available again. That's actually becoming more difficult to do because - believe it or not - the border security is tighter than it's been in forever. But that has been the pattern for hundres of thousands if not millions. The public perception seems to be that the traffic only goes one way, and that's not necessarily the case.

 

It does get a little more complicated when people bring their families over and start having children on US soil.

 

That's also just one class of illegals.

 

A large number of illegals are people who came here legally, perhaps to go to school, their visas expired, and they stayed anyway. 

 

I'm not saying there aren't illegal migrant farm workers.  Of course there are lots of them.  But, I believe the person who came here legally to go to school and earned an engineering degree is a very big target of whatever it is that's coming.

[SkinInsite]

It's actually cheaper to hire people with H-1B, they are basically stuck with that company unless they can find another sponsor. 

 

 

And it's stupid not to encourage people who comes over her and get a under/graduate degree to stay.

[zoony]

This is probably a waste of my time, but:

I picture you to look a lot like the large eagle on the muppets

[PeterMP]

Yea....I'm not quite following the illegals prevent outsourcing argument unless it's some kind of backdoor argument against a minimum wage.

 

I'd just like to point out that the economics literature actually indicates that in most cases (under most conditions) a minimum wage is actually a bad thing in terms of economics.

 

(As a stated in the other thread with respect to illegal immigration and out sourcing there are moral and social considerations as well and everything shouldn't be driven by economics (and I'd even argue not primarily based on economics)).

[Larry]

Labor is not the big saving of outsourcing. It's quite minor actually

Environmental restrictions

Taxes

That's where you look. The dirty secret of the Chinese economic explosion is that cheap labor was a small part of it.

Mexico has cheap labor. Plus you can avoid 12 week lead times. They haven't experienced the same ridiculous amount if foreign investment though if it were about labor costs, they would have

Agree that you don;t see the same growth in Mexico.

But I would assert that the #1 reason for the growth in outsourcing to China, is because companies want to sell things to China.

There just aren't that many potential customers in Mexico.

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

That's also just one class of illegals.

 

A large number of illegals are people who came here legally, perhaps to go to school, their visas expired, and they stayed anyway. 

 

I'm not saying there aren't illegal migrant farm workers.  Of course there are lots of them.  But, I believe the person who came here legally to go to school and earned an engineering degree is a very big target of whatever it is that's coming.

 

True.

 

But when we talk "Illegals" at a national level, everyone knows exactly what we are talking about, and it's not the thousands of Irish guys in New York and Boston on expired Visas or the Indian dudes in IT who are done with school.

I'd just like to point out that the economics literature actually indicates that in most cases (under most conditions) a minimum wage is actually a bad thing in terms of economics.

 

(As a stated in the other thread with respect to illegal immigration and out sourcing there are moral and social considerations as well and everything shouldn't be driven by economics (and I'd even argue not primarily based on economics)).

 

 

Did you really just rock the dual parentheticals? That's amazing.

Agree that you don;t see the same growth in Mexico.

But I would assert that the #1 reason for the growth in outsourcing to China, is because companies want to sell things to China.

There just aren't that many potential customers in Mexico.

 

That's starting to be the case now. It wasn't the case 20 years ago. And China is now starting to be concerned about the fact that their water and air is poison and - as a result - is seeing factories leave for browner pastures like Vietnam.

[Slateman]

Admiring the notion that American employers are not paying illegals minimum wage, right now. 

 

I will note that failing to pay your employees minimum wage constitutes written, documented, proof that you knew they were illegal. 

 

And, therefore, if they get caught, you've given the prosecution all the evidence they need to send you to jail.  Whereas, if you pay them minimum wage, and pay taxes for them, and all those other things, then you can pull the "I didn't know they were illegal!  They fooled me!" defense. 

So you think employers would knowingly hire illegals, with now reason other than to hire them for the dame amount as they could hire a legal worker?

[Larry]

So you think employers would knowingly hire illegals, with now reason other than to hire them for the dame amount as they could hire a legal worker?

 

Could you quote the part of my post where I said that?  Thanks in advance. 

[mike42]

All political. Obama is doing this to win the hispanic votes. The problem is he is spitting on the democratic process by doing this. Once they are legal, it'll cost us taxpayers trillions dollars. We don't have the money, the economy. Besides, since when did illegal become legal according to 1 man without congress? It's straight up insane and very dangerous.

 

I don't believe that the majority of money being made by Illegals is being spent locally.  I believe a lot of that money goes back home but you will never be able to prove that.   Heck, we can't even prove how many illegals are actually in the country. 

I learned this through my personal experience as I knew/worked with many hispanics. Even the ones that I know were legal residents, were sending half of their paychecks to their families in the homeland. And were saving what little was left over and eventually go back to their homelands.

 

This could explain why we see a dozen hispanics shacking up in a 2 bedroom house.

[Slateman]

Could you quote the part of my post where I said that?  Thanks in advance. 

The part where you said they were being paid minimum wage.

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

Yeah? And I don't like that aggressive mail chimps have a better chance of being fathers but there ain't **** I can do about it.

[Fergasun]

I dont't get the outrage. The deferred action plan would just formalize the wink-wink-nod-nod policy of "as long as you behave, you can stay". Sure, there are a handful of stories about bad immigrants who commit heartwrenching actions every year, but I think its time past due to acknowledge the 99.8% of undocumented residents who makes positive contributions to America. Policy wise this is a nothingburger to me - just articulating the unwritten policy of the land.

I thinm we need to control borders and check undocumentedmened workers more, but this country doesn't have the resources.

[PokerPacker]

Yeah? And I don't like that aggressive mail chimps have a better chance of being fathers but there ain't **** I can do about it.

Aggressive Mail Chimps? Do they mishandle your package?

[DallasCowboyFan156]

I haven't heard much about this bill since I'm overseas but any bill that has amnesty in it has about a 0% chance of passing the Republican house. Less than 0 once they get the senate. I'm pretty sure Obama knows this. This bill isn't meant to pass if it has amnesty in it. When the Republicans inevitably shoot it down it'll be what the Dems point to two years from now to hold onto the Hispanic vote in 2016. They'll use it to label the Reps as anti immigration reform and say they tried but the Reps wouldn't let them. As a famous comic book super villain once said, it's all part of the plan.

Edit: Oh yeah and in the twilight zone where the Reps pass this Obama takes credit for the bill and looks like a hero to immigration supporters. Same result in 2016. He can't lose with this bill imo

[Kosher Ham]

Couldn't have said it better DCF156.

 

He expects it will get shot down. It's political posturing. Nothing to lose by throwing it out there.

[planter]

In the 80's Reagan signed an "immigration reform" law that granted amnesty to 10 million. Thirty years later Obama will sign an "immigration reform" Executive Order granting amnesty to 20 million. What is wrong with this picture?

Apparently neither Party has a solution other than granting amnesty under the guise of "immigration reform".

[twa]

Couldn't have said it better DCF156.

 

He expects it will get shot down. It's political posturing. Nothing to lose by throwing it out there.

 

He personally ,no, the Dems on the other hand can certainly lose from the games

[Kosher Ham]

He personally ,no, the Dems on the other hand can certainly lose from the games

 

I agree. It's risky. I have a wait and see how this shakes out type of stance with this one.

I wish he was more aggressive earlier in his presidency, it would have put a perhaps different dynamic on his tenure.

[War Paint]

What is that belief based on?  You have to be making pretty good coin to cover basic expenses and then have enough left over that whatever you are sending back home is a "majority" of what you are making.  Most of the money is spent locally on rent, food, etc.

I think AQCowboy has a point.  When I used to work in construction, there were Mexicans on the job sites.  They all bunked up together in small apartments in order to save most of their money and send it back to Mexico to their families.  They would have like 5 or 6 men crammed up in a small, two bedroom apartment.