A look at the QB situation of all teams who could draft ahead of the Skins

[TK]

= Jacksonville... This is a great point, TK. Unfortunately I think Del Rio THOUGHT himself a year or two with Gabbert, but he's benched him twice now.

Other hot seats are Miami & St. Louis. Also, Philly, depending on if Fat Andy can finish strong.

[Voice_of_Reason]

The teams with bad records break down into 4 categories:

1. Teams that have recently spent a high draft pick acquiring a QB either by draft or trade. These include St. Louis (Bradford), Cleveland (McCoy), Minn (Ponder), KC (Cassel), Tampa (Freeman), Arizona (Kolb), Jax (Gabbert). These teams are unlikely to pick anybody but Andrew Luck. Any one of the other QBs would probably have about the same upside as the QB that they picked or traded for. These teams are likely to give Indy a call about the #1 overall pick, but probably not interested in any of the other QBs.

2. Teams that have atrocious records but will not be picking a QB. Carolina (Newton), San Diego (Rivers), Philly (Vick)

3. Teams that need a QB, any QB, just give me a damn QB. 'Skins, Miami, Seattle. The 'Skins would probably love Luck, but would settle for anybody better than Grossman and Beck. Miami probably isn't sold on Matt Moore or Chad Henne, so they look to pick somebody. And then there's Seattle. Tavaris isn't the answer. My guess is that they are targeting Barkley.

4. The Colts. They are a category into themselves. They area almost a lock for the #1 spot AND they have Peyton. It seems unlikely they would spend #1 overall money and pay Peyton what they are paying him. So they have to move one of the two, either the pick or Peyton.

So, the real question is, what are the Colts going to do? They could trade Peyton and select Luck. My guess is that one of the teams listed in #1 above would be the landing spot for Peyton.

Or, they trade the pick. If they trade the pick, then the only three teams that really should show interest would be Miami and Seattle. My gut feeling is that Seattle woudl be willing to just go with Barkley, and not give up a lot. They could probably stay pat and just select where they are.

So, here's how it might play out: (These are not the draft pick order, just general-loose order...)

1. Colts trade pick to Miami. Miami selects Luck.

2. Seattle selects Barkley.

3. 'Skins select RGIII, or one of the other QBs that they like.

My analysis really is predicated on one of the teams listed in #1 not deciding that they want to just cut bait and run from their current QB. KC would be the biggest risk to do that, if you ask me. But I think it's unlikely.

[Mad Mike]

I wouldn't bet on Minnesota or Jacksonville passing on a great QB, *especially" if it's Luck. Neither QB has proven themselves beyond a doubt and they may feel like they can trade the QB they have now at a later time.

[Brandon Lloyd Christmas]

Other hot seats are Miami & St. Louis. Also, Philly, depending on if Fat Andy can finish strong.

miami is surefire QB needy.

st louis has so much money locked up in bradford theyd have to trade him to another QB needy team in order to draft one.

philly same thing with bradford, vick signed 100 mil contract, so unless theres a way out of that in philly, they are wedded to him for a little bit.

---------- Post added November-28th-2011 at 01:15 PM ----------

I wouldn't bet on Minnesota or Jacksonville passing on a great QB, *especially" if it's Luck. Neither QB has proven themselves beyond a doubt and they may feel like they can trade the QB they have now at a later time.

i like what ive seen out of ponder as far as rookies go. hes made some big throws, has nice scramble ability, and he also gets to lean on peterson. they need oline and secondary help a lot more, and ponder has shown some decent flashes.

gabbert however, is terrible and showing little to no signs of spark. but is jacksonville even with a new coach just ready to give up on the 10th overall pick after like 13 games?

[Rufus T Firefly]

Looking at schedules, it is entirely possible that Miami, Seattle or Cleveland picks ahead of us if we win one more game (I think we will). Probably not Seattle, but the other 2 easily.

People have also been assuming that all 4 junior QBs come out, and that is just highly unlikely. The scenario to really worry about is that 2 of them go back to school.

The other thing at play is that the draft is after FA and the trade period. Depending on who comes out, which of them Shanahan likes and who picks in front of us, I think people are being a little foolish in assuming Shanny can just sit back until the draft saying "Don't worry, I'll get my QB in the draft". I think we have to wonder if he ends up feeling he has to put a Matt Flynn or Brian Hoyer situation into play before then.

[hitmandm]

Other teams that may want a QB, like Cleveland, have much more ammo to trade than we do. They wanted to trade their entire draft for Bradford.

Let's pray we keep losing and the other teams keep winning. It is a numbers game and if we can get the right situation, we can draft some hope for the future

[Goingforburgundy]

gabbert however, is terrible and showing little to no signs of spark. but is jacksonville even with a new coach just ready to give up on the 10th overall pick after like 13 games?

Jamarcus had the similar amount of games as the number one with a lot more money.

[GWinSkins83]

People got to ask themselves this question. Are you going to pass up on Barkley or RG3 because you got McCoy? Like really. If we get a 3rd round QB and we have a chance to get a better one the following year in the Draft than I'm gonna take that QB. Especially if that QB falls to where I'm picking.

[Brandon Lloyd Christmas]

Jamarcus had the similar amount of games as the number one with a lot more money.

jamarcus was given multiple years tho. he got his rookie year, then was given almost 2 full seasons after before the plug was pulled.

[BKSkinsFan]

Luck and Barkley will be off the board by the time our pick is up. I don't see getting any hopes up for either one of them unless we make a trade. The good news for me is I want RG3, and there's a very good chance he is available.

I feel like Luck is going to be great, Barkley can be very good if given a great o-line (if he goes to the wrong team I could see him getting Ramsey'd). So we either trade the farm for Luck which is doubtful, or draft RG3 and Dwight Jones in the 2nd, and grab some good free agent o-linemen. I honestly see a lot of people being upset when the draft rolls around and we are selecting an OT or G with our 1st pick.

[jflow78]

I have bet my membership that this won't happen.

No way in hell you can have both those guys on the same roster, due to many reasons

I honestly believe that if Manning retires before the draft, the Colts are more likely to trade down a handful of spots to get more picks and still get one of the top 4-5 QBs.

With Manning gone, it's exposed how poorly Polian has drafted in the past 5-6 years. He hit it big his first few years with that team, but without Manning their cupboard is empty. They need a young QB and about 17 other starters.

I didn't initially think that, and I think it was you that said you thought they'd be the most likely to trade, but if it's true that Manning doesn't play anymore (which wouldn't be shocking due to his condition) then I can definitely see them trying to get picks.

[PerryMason]

Cleveland would absolutely take one of the top 3 QBs... McCoy is awful & was only a 3rd round investment... Gotta worry about Cleveland(brutal schedule probably won't win another game) & Miami (right now sitting @3-8 but could win another game or two)...

So that leaves Indy obviously taking Luck & the other 3 teams keying in on two QB prospects, Barkley & Griffin III... I honestly believe Landry Jones returns for his Senior year but you never know...

Word around Norman is that Landry Jones doesn't want to play football for a career and won't even go to the NFL regardless of when he stops playing at OU.

[deejaydana]

Indy WILL NOT TRADE out of the #1 spot and not take Luck. There is simply no reason they would do this now that rookie salaries have been scaled back. Even if Manning comes back, which is the only unclear thing here, they could still draft Luck and have him learn under Manning for a year. Oh, and all the stuff you've read about Luck is true, he's every bit as good as his billing. It's not fair is it? The Colts get the best QB to come out since....Peyton Manning.

I just don't know why people think the Colts would trade down and not take the best QB to come out in the past 12+ years. It will never happen.

[AKM311]

The wild card to watch out for is how many teams make coaching changes who then may want to make a QB change.

Was just about to say this.

Every new coach wants there hand picked QB. Wayyy too much up in the air for us to predict who needs one and who doesnt.

Also, if Minny and Jax finish in the top 5 and have a legit shot at RG3, dont think that drafting a QB last year will stop them.

Ponder and Gabbert can be traded to recoup some value.

---------- Post added November-28th-2011 at 06:28 PM ----------

I honestly believe that if Manning retires before the draft, the Colts are more likely to trade down a handful of spots to get more picks and still get one of the top 4-5 QBs.

With Manning gone, it's exposed how poorly Polian has drafted in the past 5-6 years. He hit it big his first few years with that team, but without Manning their cupboard is empty. They need a young QB and about 17 other starters.

No way. If Manning retires, Luck is definitely the pick. Look what Manning did for them with crap on there team. They can have the same luck with Luck.

[justice98]

I wouldn't even include Matt Flynn in the conversation. I don't think he'll wind up being all that relevant. I don't see the clamor of teams trying to get their hands on him to make him their starter.

[Brandon Lloyd Christmas]

Indy WILL NOT TRADE out of the #1 spot and not take Luck. There is simply no reason they would do this now that rookie salaries have been scaled back. Even if Manning comes back, which is the only unclear thing here, they could still draft Luck and have him learn under Manning for a year. Oh, and all the stuff you've read about Luck is true, he's every bit as good as his billing. It's not fair is it? The Colts get the best QB to come out since....Peyton Manning.

I just don't know why people think the Colts would trade down and take the best QB to come out in the past 12+ years. It will never happen.

if manning retires, they take luck, thats a no brainer.

if manning is healthy and ready to go, they still take luck? walk me through that. how long does the #1 overall draft pick or "the best QB to come out in the past 12+ years" sit behind a hall of fame top 10 QB of all time? you really think luck wants to go to a team where he sits forever if manning is healthy? i highly doubt that.

rodgers sat for 3 years because he was the 24th overall pick. i dont think a 1st overall has sat for more than 1 season ever. last i can remember was palmer sitting for 03, but aside from him, the #1 overalls usually get inserted right away, and they are picked there because they are NFL ready. id assume rodgers fell to #24 because teams didnt feel he was NFL ready, same reason why campbell sat for 1.5 years, he wasnt NFL ready.

if manning is healthy and ready to go, id assume they trade that pick for god knows what, they restock with youth and some smart FA pickups, and they make one more run. however, if manning retires, luck is the target, and he starts from day one. and ill throw up all over myself if hes as good as advertised, cause it just aint fair to go from one monster right to another!

[deejaydana]

Luck is the target regardless. Mark my words. Manning from the looks of it may never play again, it won't matter either way here. Luck is the pick.

[DogofWar1]

Jacksonville - Blaine Gabbert. No QB.

Seattle - Tavaris Jackson ... could definitely go QB. But their schedule is NFC West easy and I see them finishing with 6-7 wins. We will likely pick ahead of them.

Philadelphia - Vick. No QB.

I kinda cut up the OP's post, but I just wanted to comment on these predictions.

Jacksonville certainly can't be happy with Gabbert. I agree that they SHOULD give him more time, but they could easily look at Carolina and what happened with the Clausen-Newton situation and toss their hat into the ring. Unlikely, but definitely possible.

Seattle probably goes QB in the draft, and if Barkley is still available when they pick expect them to take him. Pete Carroll has known the kid forever, and would no doubt take him.

Philly is in a tough situation, but if Vick's injuries are bad, and Young/Kafka can't perform (and they haven't really so far), they might invest in another QB. Probably not a first rounder, but it's impossible to know yet.

I'd also like to add the Broncos and 49ers to the list of teams who might go QB. If Tim Tebow turns out to be a crappy passer (or his pact with the devil runs out), they might look for a replacement. Also, the 49ers could try and find someone to upgrade Smith, though they probably draft outside the 1st looking for a developmental guy.

And I know that those 2 teams aren't ahead of the Skins, but I thought it was worth mentioning them as teams who might go QB, in case we get into a weird situation trading down or something.

if manning is healthy and ready to go, they still take luck? walk me through that. how long does the #1 overall draft pick or "the best QB to come out in the past 12+ years" sit behind a hall of fame top 10 QB of all time? you really think luck wants to go to a team where he sits forever if manning is healthy? i highly doubt that.

The problem is that Manning isn't a spring chicken anymore, and probably has 3 years left maximum, assuming he's perfectly healthy. If you're Indy, you're seeing the writing on the wall, that you need your Manning successor, and need him now. Luck is probably the best QB to hit the board in a decade. If you've got the golden ticket, I think you take him. Hell, even if Luck has to sit a year or two, I think you take him. Let him learn the system, and build up a team around Luck while Manning can still play. Then when Manning retires and takes over the whole organization by force (which I'm sure he'll do) you've got a guy to step in with a team built around him.

Basically, if you have to choose between Luck now, or some ? potential guy later, I think you go with Luck now.

[GaryE]

He's owed a frak ton of guaranteed money. You don't cut a guy you just signed to a huge contract and give up draft picks and great player for. You just don't. Not only is Kolb's contract nye untradeable, if you cut him, you still have to pay for him unless he gets claimed off waivers, and with his contract, he won't be. Not to mention if you draft a quarterback in the first round, you pay him first round QB money, and even with the rookie salary cap, you'd be investing a ton of money in one position on the field.

Great points and I have one more to add. Bidwell is the cheapest owner in the league (and maybe in the entire history of the league). There is no way on God's green earth that Bidwell throws away money. He charges the draft picks for the jersey they hold up at the draft. There is just no way Bidwell "tears up Kolb's contract". NO WAY

[illone]

Seattle is a better team than the Skins, and should win more games than us based on division alone. We'll see, but i think they will pick after us if all goes correct.

[Brandon Lloyd Christmas]

I'd also like to add the Broncos and 49ers to the list of teams who might go QB. If Tim Tebow turns out to be a crappy passer (or his pact with the devil runs out), they might look for a replacement. Also, the 49ers could try and find someone to upgrade Smith, though they probably draft outside the 1st looking for a developmental guy.

And I know that those 2 teams aren't ahead of the Skins, but I thought it was worth mentioning them as teams who might go QB, in case we get into a weird situation trading down or something.

broncos are gonna win too many games for it to matter, and the 49ers are gonna finish way ahead of us, plus they already took kapernick last draft, and hes the current heir to that throne.

[TheGreek1973]

Like someone else said in here we can analyze this until our fingers drop but the fact is we have a "multiple variable" equation because we don't know if Barkely, Jones or RGIII are declaring. What happens if all are coming our or non at all? Talk about different scenarios

[TheLongshot]

if manning retires, they take luck, thats a no brainer.

if manning is healthy and ready to go, they still take luck? walk me through that. how long does the #1 overall draft pick or "the best QB to come out in the past 12+ years" sit behind a hall of fame top 10 QB of all time? you really think luck wants to go to a team where he sits forever if manning is healthy? i highly doubt that.

rodgers sat for 3 years because he was the 24th overall pick. i dont think a 1st overall has sat for more than 1 season ever. last i can remember was palmer sitting for 03, but aside from him, the #1 overalls usually get inserted right away, and they are picked there because they are NFL ready. id assume rodgers fell to #24 because teams didnt feel he was NFL ready, same reason why campbell sat for 1.5 years, he wasnt NFL ready.

if manning is healthy and ready to go, id assume they trade that pick for god knows what, they restock with youth and some smart FA pickups, and they make one more run. however, if manning retires, luck is the target, and he starts from day one. and ill throw up all over myself if hes as good as advertised, cause it just aint fair to go from one monster right to another!

The problem with your logic is that Indy's situation is unprecedented. When was the last time a team with a great QB (and is still considered great when healthy) completely tanked the season like this? I don't think you can use past history to predict what Indy will do. I think there is little doubt that they need to address the QB position this offseason, even if they determine that Manning is healthy. Now, whether that will be Luck or another QB, that is another question.

Yeah, I'm one who thinks that Luck and Manning can coexist on the same team, tho I don't think that's a situation that can last longer than a season.

[Larry Brown #43]

Other hot seats are Miami & St. Louis. Also, Philly, depending on if Fat Andy can finish strong.

So true. I'm thinking the situations in Arizona, KC, Tampa, and San Diego are also up in the air, which could mean the job security of guys like Kolb, Cassell, Freeman, and Rivers (after the season he has had) are far from certain.

[Brandon Lloyd Christmas]

The problem with your logic is that Indy's situation is unprecedented. When was the last time a team with a great QB (and is still considered great when healthy) completely tanked the season like this? I don't think you can use past history to predict what Indy will do. I think there is little doubt that they need to address the QB position this offseason, even if they determine that Manning is healthy. Now, whether that will be Luck or another QB, that is another question.

Yeah, I'm one who thinks that Luck and Manning can coexist on the same team, tho I don't think that's a situation that can last longer than a season.

IMO they arent tanking, as i dont think any team ever would. they are just that bad. painter is terrible, they have no running game, and their defense has holes everywhere and has never had to stop the run past the 3rd quarter. that defense was built to protect double digit leads and rush the passer. manning is that team, so if hes healthy and ready to go, thats a problem regarding the drafting of luck.

and take your last comment that you dont think it lasts more than a season. what if manning can play for 3-4 more years, what then? lots of question marks floating around for indy.