Why Mike Shanahan may start Grossman over Beck

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

I've already posted an argument why Beck should start. Namely:

1. Injuries on OL will put pressure on passing game and increase the value of QB mobility, an obvious Beck forte / Grossman weakness.
   
2. After 4 INTs by Grossman, fans and team deserve the opportunity to see what's behind door #2.
   
3. Starting Beck assures better support for either QB. If Beck does well, great. If he blows chunks and Grossman plays again this year, then Grossman won't be the same scapegoat he's been. Either outcome is healthier than the current hostile fan situation.
   

While that's a reasonable argument, there's a good counter-argument based on possible game-planning for the Eagles game.

Against the Rams, I noticed that Rex didn't throw deep at all. This continued a trend started in the Cowboys game, when Rex threw deep less than he did in the first two games. It looked to me that Rex didn't trust that his receivers were getting open deep against the Rams' Cover 2, and it's hard to evaluate those decisions without camera views of the deep routes.

Over the bye, both Davis and Grossman practiced at Redskin Park. It's very plausible that a decision was made to re-establish the deep pass against the Eagles, with a particular focus on targeting Davis. We saw a lot of deep passes against the Eagles, many targeting Davis and also Gaffney. Three of those were INTs. Two plays prior to his 4th INT, Rex threw a perfect deep pass to Davis that Davis dropped. Of all 4 INTs, only one was a very inaccurate pass - the last pass thrown on the run on 3rd down. The others were very catchable passes on which the safety Coleman made a better play for the ball than Davis did (first and third INTs) and the safety Allen in single coverage made a better play than Gaffney did on a slightly underthrown ball.

It's credible to me that the Shanahans went to Grossman early in the bye week and told him that he needed to trust his deep pass and trust his receivers to make plays for the ball. If that was his coaching, the coaches can't reasonably bench Grossman for throwing three pretty decent passes, catchable passes, when they told him to throw those passes and to trust his receivers.

Above: INT #1. Davis has position, ball is accurate, but safety makes better play for ball

The Redskins don't have receivers with a track record for catching contested passes deep. I thought Davis was capable of catching those types of passes, but he didn't against the Eagles. Nor Gaffney (who didn't even bother to jump for the ball - ouch). If Grossman was told to throw those passes and the receivers didn't make a play on the ball, those INTs aren't soley on Grossman. They're fairly shared by the coaches (for telling Rex to throw the passes regardless of coverage) and by the receivers for failing to make a play on the ball.

Edit: I just noticed a simiilarity in the first 3 INTs: they were all targeting a receiver deep against a safety (Davis vs Coleman / Gaffney vs Allen / Davis vs Coleman). This reinforces my impression that the game plan was to avoid the 3 great CBs and go deep to challenge the safeties. If that was the game plan, it blew up. The plan probably sounded good on paper. Coleman had one career INT going into the game. Allen had 3. Meanwhile, the CBs have been more lethal: 43 INTs by Samuel, 13 INTs by DRC, 12 by Asomugha.

The 4th INT was squarely on Grossman. He doesn't throw well at all on the run. Even if he expected Gaffney to come back to the QB (standard procedure on broken plays), it was still a poor throw. The others? That depends on the game plan and what the coaches told Grossman to do.

I think Rex will have trouble throwing behind a damaged OL, in obvious passing situations with the running game likely struggling now. So, I'm not at all convinced that starting Rex will lead to better play. But, I do think it's unfair to bench a QB for following the coach's instructions to throw deep no matter what (if those were the instructions), especially when those passes were fairly well thrown (those to Davis especially).

In this situation, and with team captain Moss coming out for Grossman, and Davis blaming himself for two INTs, I think it's fair to start Rex next week. I'm just not convinced that ends well for anyone in the next few weeks. If ever this team needed a mobile QB, now is that time, and that's the strongest argument for Beck.

Fair treatment of players may argue for Grossman. Best chance to win with a broken OL may favor Beck right now. The balance of those arguments depends on the game plan and coaching for the Eagles game. If I'm right about the coaching, Shanahan may go with Grossman at least another week.

Also: this is an excellent time for an away game against the Panthers. Their defense is poor against both the rush and the pass. They have only 9 sacks and 3 INTs on the season, and opposing QBs are averaging a 99.8 QB rating (two of those QBs were Rodgers and Brees). This might be a game when either Rex or Beck plays well against lowered expectations, in tandem with a rushing game that gets some new life against a bad rushing defense. With the game being in Carolina, at least Rex won't have to listen to boos from his own fans. It's a good time for Rex to redeem himself ... or for that matter, Beck to get off to a good start.

I'll support Mike Shanahan either way he goes with this decision right now.

[skinfan2k]

Another thing is that I bet Mike S knows that Rex can throw for 300 yds while they know Beck probably isn't. And with this offensive line banged up like this, i rather have Rex in there too. People seem to think that this 4 Int game was out of nowhere but it is inconsistent Rex we all know. He will probably come back with a 4 TD game this weekend

[grego]

are you a lobbyist? you should be.

interesting that grossman seems to have support among those he throws to. while i've supported shanny and whoever they pick as QB, rex has regressed, essentially, every week.

certainly, not all those INT's were bad throws. the first one was a beauty, actually. seems our receivers arent aggressive enough at times trying to fight for the ball. i dont kow if its rex, kyle, WR's, or a combination of all 3, but we arent scoring. becks mobility should be a plus, and i'd like to see what he has. somehow, i think shanny will convince himself that grossman isnt that bad.

can we trade for cutler?

---------- Post added October-17th-2011 at 10:12 PM ----------

And with this offensive line banged up like this, i rather have Rex in there too.

you want the less mobile QB out there with a banged up line?

[brandymac27]

But, I do think it's unfair to bench a QB for following the coach's instructions to throw deep no matter what (if those were the instructions), especially when those passes were fairly well thrown (those to Davis especially).

The whole point you're making is null and void considering we have no idea what the game plan was. We don't know what the coaches told Rex over the bye. IMO, what Rex did against the eagles is consistent with what he does period! THAT'S our Rex, regardless of what the coaches told him to do. He obviously isn't the answer, and neither is Beck, so I don't know why we keep debating the issue when we all know deep down we're never gonna be solid until we get a franchise QB.

[skinfan2k]

are you a lobbyist? you should be.

interesting that grossman seems to have support among those he throws to. while i've supported shanny and whoever they pick as QB, rex has regressed, essentially, every week.

certainly, not all those INT's were bad throws. the first one was a beauty, actually. seems our receivers arent aggressive enough at times trying to fight for the ball. i dont kow if its rex, kyle, WR's, or a combination of all 3, but we arent scoring. becks mobility should be a plus, and i'd like to see what he has. somehow, i think shanny will convince himself that grossman isnt that bad.

can we trade for cutler?

---------- Post added October-17th-2011 at 10:12 PM ----------

you want the less mobile QB out there with a banged up line?

not because of that because we are gonna need the passing game more than ever without the strong part of our oline that we use for our running game.

[Saqs]

Good assessment.

[Spear]

I think that Rex keeps his job, but I agree that we're probably doomed by the OL injuries.

[skins2victory]

I am for Rex starting on sunday. Tell him that this is his last shot to keep his job. If he plays horrible and keeps us from winning, then you bench him the rest of the year. It's too early for big changes yet, like a qb change when a win this sunday puts us back in first place in the east.

[NoCalMike]

If the O-line didn't just lose 2 starters I could see Shanahan starting Rex merely because he thinks Carolina won't present as much pass rush, which will allow Grossman to settle down, however being down 2 starters on the O-line, Beck's mobility may not only be a luxury but a necessity until at least Trent Williams is back.

Beck can roll out after the snap, similar to what Philly was doing with Vick last week.

At least Beck can escape and scramble if need be.

[Boss_Hogg]

Both QBs are lousy. I'm not sure it matters who starts.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

That's the most elaborate and detailed post I've read that is based solely off of a possible what-if scenario. If the coaches happened to tell Rex to fire the ball deep this week, Rex is excused. Nice.

[GWinSkins83]

Another thing is that I bet Mike S knows that Rex can throw for 300 yds while they know Beck probably isn't. And with this offensive line banged up like this, i rather have Rex in there too. People seem to think that this 4 Int game was out of nowhere but it is inconsistent Rex we all know. He will probably come back with a 4 TD game this weekend

U my fellow fan need to lay off that OOWW WEE

[NoCalMike]

Why do people think Beck can't throw for 300 yards? If Donte Stallworth catches a pass that is right to him on Sunday, Beck in one pass probably throws for half the yards Grossman did in the entire game.

Lets not forget what conditions Beck came into the game under. Down by 2 scores, the running game was all but eliminated, hadn't taken any snaps with the starters since preseason.

It isn't like Beck is taking 50% of the practice during the week. Beck came in with only his sideline warmups to get prepared.

[THEREALTOR1]

Another thing is that I bet Mike S knows that Rex can throw for 300 yds while they know Beck probably isn't.

What makes you say this? Stats would say otherwise.

Beck avg 7.2 YPP in the games he played in preseason, while Rex avg 7.4 YPP during the preseason. Both had very similiar comp % at 62% & 64%. For the regular season Rex has avg 6.9 YPP, with a comp % of 55.8%. What would make you think Rex could throw for 300 but Beck couldn't? Just curious where you got that at.

[hands11]

All good points. I hadnt considered it from that view point. Should be interesting.

[AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy]

Everyone knew that this was going to be an issue before the season started. I understand the lynch mob mentality, but I think it's unfortunate. Either quarterback is likely to struggle, and we are in the middle of a rebuild. Personally, I am just happy that we were able to add some nice pieces. Cofield, Bowen, JJ, Helu, Kerrigan, Paul, Hank, etc. have me excited about being a fan again. One game does not change that, no matter how much kool-aid I threw up yesterday.

I am indifferent about who starts at quarterback on Sunday. I have a feeling that Rex will get one more go, and I'm okay with that. I truly feel like the job in the preseason was Beck's to lose. When he wasn't able to win that job over a a guy like Rex, it makes me wonder what kind of a dumpster fire Shanny is trying to keep us away from.

[Redskins4ever]

Grossman has been on a downward spiral since the Dallas game. He's looked worse with each game since then. The Carolina Panthers have the 16th ranked defense They are giving up an average of 360 yards a game. They rank 31st against the run and 11th against the pass. It would appear that Torain and Helu can run all over them. But given the fact that they are almost in the top ten in pass defense, I would play Beck if I were Mike Shanahan. I wouldn't trust Grossman against a defense that can defend the pass very well.

[Oldfan]

That's the most elaborate and detailed post I've read that is based solely off of a possible what-if scenario. If the coaches happened to tell Rex to fire the ball deep this week, Rex is excused. Nice.

ASF is a wizard isn't he? The man can make chicken salad out of chicken ****.

[WhoRUSupposed2Be]

Damn, just when I had lost faith in Grossman, you turnaround and do something like that ASF

[moondog]

I'm not too worried about the O-line right now. We are playing against a team with a poor pass rush. Right now, I'm thinking losing Lichtensteiger hurts the worst because it really screws up a G-C-G combo that was coming into its own. Trent is coming into his own at LT but the fact is we are either replacing him with Jammal Brown or Sean Locklear - both of which have started a lot of games in this league and one of which has previously performed at a Pro-Bowl level at that position. Locklear looked pretty damn good against the Eagles and I'm not too worried about our Tackles. I think losing Lich hurts us more right now.

I think Grossman gets the start and the way Cam's been playing so far this year, we're going to need his "A" game in this one.

[bowhunter]

Either way, Coach S needs to **** or get off the pot.It's unfair to either QB to get limited or no reps all week, and then be expected to play as an integral part of the Offense.

[SkinsFTW]

Grossman hasn't looked like a starter since the first half of the Dallas game, or maybe the 4th quarter of the Cardinals game and even then his play could be called nothing less than Cringeworthy.

I seriously doubt that Beck could do any worse than 2-3 turnovers a game to go with only 13-20 points. If he put up 30+ every week then 2-3 turnovers wouldn't even matter in most games but we don't even average 20 a game on offense.

We aren't winning the division this year with Grossman starting and anyone who believes that we can hasn't been paying attention. The teams have figured him out.

Compare defensive rankings of other teams when they play a team other than the Redskins. It's Campbellesque except Grossman turns the ball over 2 times as often and hasn't been making that many more plays in the passing game. In fact, MOST of the extra plays he makes are for the wrong team.

[MartinC]

Another thing is that I bet Mike S knows that Rex can throw for 300 yds while they know Beck probably isn't. And with this offensive line banged up like this, i rather have Rex in there too. People seem to think that this 4 Int game was out of nowhere but it is inconsistent Rex we all know. He will probably come back with a 4 TD game this weekend

Beck threw for over 100 yards in two drives Sunday. I hate extrapolations but that at least suggests Beck is capable of producing and moving the team. Add in Becks mobility opens out parts of the play book just not accessible to Rex and is a big plus behind what is now a banged up OLine.

The clincher for me tough is that we know what Rex is and it's not a starting NFL QB. He is a decent back up but not a guy you can rely on to get to where you want to be as a team. With Beck we don't know - its possible he will be worse than Rex but he has better physical ability and the potential to be much better with experience and an opportunity. We are not winning the Division or making the playoffs this year with Rex (and probably not with Beck) but we can find out what we have with Beck and maybe be a much better team in Dec than we arev right now.

We are a good starting QB away from being a very good team. Rex is not that - let's see if Beck is or could be.

---------- Post added October-18th-2011 at 03:56 AM ----------

Either way, Coach S needs to **** or get off the pot.It's unfair to either QB to get limited or no reps all week, and then be expected to play as an integral part of the Offense.

If you mean the backup not taking any snaps in practice that's is standard across the NFL and has been for as long as I have been interested in the game and much longer. The starter gets all the work in the week.

[theTruthTeller]

Here's my two cents. MS would need to be insane not to give Beck significant snaps this week. If he doesn't get any snaps, then it means Beck sucks so bad in Shanny's mind that he'll only get in if Rex lays a turd like last week or the Skin's are mathematically eliminated. Assuming they haven't reached that point and Beck practices with the first team this week, what is the point of starting Grossman? So they can sit back and watch how bad he is? Mark it down - Beck will be starting.

[Wyvern]

My sense is that Shanahan sticks a bit longer with Grossman --simply it's a big move to switch from the established starter with the most experience in the offensive scheme. Also Rex has had the lion's share of the reps in practice. Team chemistry, timing, receivers familiarity with a QB-- a lot gets changed, when you switch starting QBs. And should the switch wind up backfiring ... that carries implications too.

Of course, if game-film reveals that Grossman is not making the throws to receivers who were in the right place or Rex was constantly overlooking the open receiver and throwing into double coverage instead -- then maybe Shanahan might opt for the change. In short it would happen when Shanahan is convinced that the risk of staying with the status quo outweighs the risk of making a change.

Even in that case, I suspect Shanahan might give Grossman one more chance to shine and to put this 4-Int game behind him. But I also suspect Rex has already been put on something like 'double-secret probation.'