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The Official Washington Wizards Thread: The Beal Era


BRAVEONAWARPATH
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Yeah, I see no point in trading Deni or Rui. Why would you give up on your first round draft pick who was 9th overall and 20 years old? To me that just tells me you don't trust your scouting and evaluation of players and want to cover up your mistake. Same goes with Golden State trading Wiseman. Give these dudes time to develop before you attempt to cut your losses.

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1 hour ago, BRAVEONAWARPATH said:

 

 

That's a stupid take.  It isn't over valuing.  It is negotiating.  In order to maximize your return, you start by asking for more than you think you should get.

 

(The Simmons situation is a little different because there is an apparent huge separation between his likely ceiling (a guy that hits ~70% of FT, attacks the basket regularly, averages nearly a triple-double and plays some of the best defense in the NBA) and his floor (what you saw in the Atlanta series, a guy that shoots less than 50% from the FT and passes up pretty much wide open dunks.  And then how much you think his mental state and what has been happening in his family affected his play.  And for Sixers it makes more sense to focus on his ceiling and for many of their likely trade partners to focus on the floor.)

Edited by PeterMP
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Seems like a lot. Will depend on if there are protections built into the pick swap that make it very unlikely to convey, but I wouldn't have wanted to throw in the other 2nd round pick if the pick swap is at all likely to convey.  If it is really just 2 2nd round picks and Hutchison it isn't awful.

 

(Which is why you start by asking for more)

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The contract is the bigger concern than the reported draft picks in the exchange.  If Dinwiddie doesn't recover from his injury, then all of that flexibility we opened up with the Westbrook trade is gone and we've got another Mahinmi-esque anchor on our hands.  Three years can be a long time.  I wonder how much of that third year is guaranteed?

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1 hour ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

The contract is the bigger concern than the reported draft picks in the exchange.  If Dinwiddie doesn't recover from his injury, then all of that flexibility we opened up with the Westbrook trade is gone and we've got another Mahinmi-esque anchor on our hands.  Three years can be a long time.  I wonder how much of that third year is guaranteed?

 

Disagree 100%.  If he's not healthy the pick swap could be disastrous depending on protections.  Especially if coupled with injuries to other top players.

 

**EDIT** Just to be clear, the pick doesn't convey until 2025.  Him and Beal are likely going to be irrelevant.  The below is just to make the point in the context of him.

 

If he's not healthy and Beal has an injury, it could be a top 5 pick.  Swapping a top 5 pick for a pick at the bottom of the 1st round would set a franchise back far more than a bad 3 year contract.

 

(Generally, today you'd expect him to be essentially what he was.  If he isn't the Wizards medical staff should be able to pick that out in a physical and reject the trade.  Though you can't account that he might have some sort of other injury during the season.  Assuming he's nearly 100% recovered, the contract seems reasonable.)

 

The fear with pick swap is some sort of combination of injuries to him or other players might make you a worse team than you expect and if there aren't protections and result in the trade being very expensive.

 

Injuries to Beal + a combination of players could make them a lottery team even if he's completely healthy.  And if not protected, going from the a lottery pick to the end of the 1st round would be bad.

Edited by PeterMP
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11 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

 

Disagree 100%.  If he's not healthy the pick swap could be disastrous depending on protections.  Especially if coupled with injuries to other top players.

 

If he's not healthy and Beal has an injury, it could be a top 5 pick.  Swapping a top 5 pick for a pick at the bottom of the 1st round would set a franchise back far more than a bad 3 year contract.

 

(Generally, today you'd expect him to be essentially what he was.  If he isn't the Wizards medical staff should be able to pick that out in a physical and reject the trade.  Though you can't account that he might have some sort of other injury during the season.  Assuming he's nearly 100% recovered, the contract seems reasonable.)

 

The fear with pick swap is some sort of combination of injuries to him or other players might make you a worse team than you expect and if there aren't protections and result in the trade being very expensive.

 

Injuries to Beal + a combination of players could make them a lottery team even if he's completely healthy.  And if not protected, going from the a lottery pick to the end of the 1st round would be bad.

Isn’t the pick swap in 2025, a year after Dinwiddie’s contract is up?

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So, 2 2nd rounders, 2025 pick swap w/ Brooklyn, and Hutchinson. 3 years $62M. That doesn't sound like much if anything. Great deal. We're hoping for the 2019 Dinwiddie that averaged 20/7. 

 

This doesn't feel like the final roster either. Deni/Rui/Kuzma/KCP/Bertans - one or two from this group will probably be gone. I hope we keep Harrell but I suppose him too. 

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54 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

Isn’t the pick swap in 2025, a year after Dinwiddie’s contract is up?

 

Yeah.  I was just trying to make the point directly related to him.  Should have made that clear.

 

Swapping a the 10th pick of the draft for the 25th pick of the draft makes the trade much worse than if he's not healthy and the player that he wasn't.  In fact, that compounds the problem.  Not only have you over paid him, but you've given up too much to over pay him.  Giving up too much draft capital to over pay a player makes giving up too much that much of a bigger issue.

 

In 2025, the pick won't necessarily be directly related to his (or Beal's) performance, but the idea is important.  2025 makes it much more likely the Nets aren't going to be good, which means it isn't likely to even convey (which is good).  But I'd still want some protections built into it.  Having to swap to the 5th pick in the draft for the 25th pick in the draft any year for Dinwiddie makes this a bad trade.

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57 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

If this, if that, even if they all stay healthy its not a contender. Is the plan to add more star power with Beal or not?  Doesn't seem like it.

 

To add star talent to Beal, you essentially need star talent that wants to come to play with Beal (or get lucky and find an unexpected star).

 

Not much that can be done about that.

 

(They really should have taken the best deal they could before the draft for Beal and looked to rebuild.  But if they aren't going to do that, this is a reasonable move (assuming they have some protections in the pick swap, the medical team does its jobs with the physical, and they just don't have bad luck.))

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