The Official Washington Basketball Thread: Wizards, Mystics etc

[method man]

Having the level of depth they do is kind of bad. Not enough mouths to feed and younger guys will be underdeveloped if they don't get PT and lose trade value. This is what happens with teams like the Magic and Cavs who are in the lottery every year.

 

I too agree they are not done. To convince Beal to stay, you have to bring in a legit star. They need to have the gumption to structure something around Rui to get Siakam. Siakam wasn't good last season but was coming off two excellent seasons prior to that and would be a fantastic fit next to Dinwiddie and Beal with his ability to hit the three, create for himself and others & defend.

[Ball Security]

1 minute ago, method man said:

Having the level of depth they do is kind of bad. Not enough mouths to feed and younger guys will be underdeveloped if they don't get PT and lose trade value. This is what happens with teams like the Magic and Cavs who are in the lottery every year.

 

I too agree they are not done. To convince Beal to stay, you have to bring in a legit star. They need to have the gumption to structure something around Rui to get Siakam. Siakam wasn't good last season but was coming off two excellent seasons prior to that and would be a fantastic fit next to Dinwiddie and Beal with his ability to hit the three, create for himself and others & defend.

Would there be a way to do that without giving up Rui?  He’s a guy I don’t want to give up on.  I like the idea of getting Siakam, but then two of your “big 3” are coming off injury.  

[PeterMP]

Assuming Toronto believes Siakam is likely to further develop into a star, the only way they trade him for less than a star or something that is likely to become a star is if he says I want out and Washington is one of the few places I'll go.

 

(i.e. a star wants to come to Beal).

 

Unless he's demanding a trade if they accept anything less than a star or assets likely to turn into a star, what that tells you is that they don't think he's likely to become a star.  Trading for a player that has been with a team for years that they don't think is going to become and then he becomes a star isn't very common.  Toronto has a much better sense of what Siakam is than any other organization than the NBA.  You are essentially hoping a team has misscouted their only player.  It happens some but not much.

[bearrock]

I'm seeing some reports that there's no pick swap of first rounder in the Dinwiddle trade?  Instead it looks like BK getting a choice between two of our 2nd in 2025.  That would make me feel significantly better about the trade.

 

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/31959304/washington-wizards-get-spencer-dinwiddie-sign-trade-deal

[Hersh]

I hope Beal asks for a trade after all this. The only way the Wiz are gonna do the right thing is for him to ask out. 

 

The model the Wiz need to take is the Atlanta model. 

1 hour ago, method man said:

Having the level of depth they do is kind of bad. Not enough mouths to feed and younger guys will be underdeveloped if they don't get PT.

 

This is what is likely to happen. 

[TradeTheBeal!]

It would seem we have some tradable assets at 4/5.  Maybe at the deadline, maybe next year.

 

Maybe tomorrow.

[Hersh]

8 minutes ago, TryTheBeal! said:

It would seem we have some tradable assets at 4/5.  Maybe at the deadline, maybe next year.

 

Maybe tomorrow.

 

They have a tradable asset at the 2. 😂

[method man]

1 hour ago, PeterMP said:

Assuming Toronto believes Siakam is likely to further develop into a star, the only way they trade him for less than a star or something that is likely to become a star is if he says I want out and Washington is one of the few places I'll go.

 

(i.e. a star wants to come to Beal).

 

Unless he's demanding a trade if they accept anything less than a star or assets likely to turn into a star, what that tells you is that they don't think he's likely to become a star.  Trading for a player that has been with a team for years that they don't think is going to become and then he becomes a star isn't very common.  Toronto has a much better sense of what Siakam is than any other organization than the NBA.  You are essentially hoping a team has misscouted their only player.  It happens some but not much.

 

Siakam and Nurse had blowups last season and they just passed on the guy every other team would have taken at #4 in Jalen Suggs to take Scottie Barnes who plays the same position as Siakam. On top of that, Boucher, Siakam's backup, played well when he was out last year.

 

[Hersh]

Not sure what the Wiz have that Toronto would want unless the Wiz are giving up a boat load of firsts. 

[Hersh]

 

 

 

This makes the contract a little better. 

[Going Commando]

3 hours ago, Barry.Randolphe said:

 

So who is the starting 5? My guess is:

 

Dinwiddie

Beal

Kuzma

Rui

Bryant

 

2nd team is:

Neto/Holiday

KCP

Kispert

Bertans

Gafford

 

That's not bad depth and the 2nd team has some shooters

 

I think it'll be Dinwiddie 1, Beal 2, KCP 3, Rui 4, Gafford 5.  Harrell off the bench at 5 until Bryant's knee heals.  Kuzma probably plays the 4 here mostly.

[method man]

1 hour ago, Hersh said:

 

 

 

This makes the contract a little better. 

 

Ugh. The 2023 draft is a double draft because it is the first in a while in which players from high school can go straight to the NBA. It was shrewd by Tommy to get that pick for Sato. It's too bad he is giving it away.

2 hours ago, Hersh said:

Not sure what the Wiz have that Toronto would want unless the Wiz are giving up a boat load of firsts. 

 

No. Wiz don't have the star power to do a 1 on 1 trade for Siakam but I doubt anyone does that given the season he is coming off of. What we do have are 3 young prospects, a full set of firsts outside of the pick that was given away with Wall (the rules around that pick do make it hard to trade firsts in general anyway) and tradeable piecemeal contracts. IT is hte type of trade you can involve 3-4 teams because there will be takers out there for guys like Bryant and Kuzma

[abdcskins]

So we are not getting rid of Kuzma and Harrell? That makes the Dinwiddie deal way better. We are just getting rid of a bunch of second round draft picks? If that is true, and Beal stays, I'd say our squad is much improved.

[Destino]

2 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I think it'll be Dinwiddie 1, Beal 2, KCP 3, Rui 4, Gafford 5.  Harrell off the bench at 5 until Bryant's knee heals.  Kuzma probably plays the 4 here mostly.

 

Point guard:  Dinwiddie and Beal will see the most minutes here.  I’d bet Neto gets more minutes than Holiday.  We won’t see much of Winston.

 

Shooting guard:  Beal and KCP get virtually every minute.  Mathews is in when the game is out of reach.  Deni might get some burn here but there won’t be many minutes to take.  Maybe Kispert too?  I have no idea how quick his feet are.
 

SF:  I could see Kuzma taking over the starting spot here.  Deni will get the second most minutes here, easily if his three point shot has improved.  Bertans will get some burn but only stay in if his shot is falling.  Deni is a better defender, ball handler, and passer and the new coach wants the ball moving this season.  Kispert is the unknown here.  If he’s nba ready, he’s going to steal someone’s minutes.  
 

PF:  Rui gets the lions share with Bertans and Kuzma splitting the rest.  
 

Center:  I’d prefer they start Gafford for defense but I suspect they’ll start Bryant when he’s healthy.  Gafford behind him.  Harrell looks like the odd man out on this roster.  
 

I’m not sure the trades are done though.  The roster seems a bit bloated in places with guys that won’t be happy getting so little burn.  How is Kispert going to play without leaving someone that expecting minutes out in the cold?  
 

This roster should look ok in the regular season.  Plenty of scoring and lots of depth.  When the rotations tighten up in the post season though the weaknesses in the starting five will be glaring against an improved eastern conference.  The starting unit needs more star power unless Rui makes a much greater leap than I expect.  
 

Defensively things look pretty grim, even though the team has plenty of size.  Coach has his work cut out for him.  

 

 

 

[PeterMP]

8 hours ago, method man said:

 

Siakam and Nurse had blowups last season and they just passed on the guy every other team would have taken at #4 in Jalen Suggs to take Scottie Barnes who plays the same position as Siakam. On top of that, Boucher, Siakam's backup, played well when he was out last year.

 

 

That is all true, but none of it is actually relevant to my post.

 

Especially if you read the Raptors' draft is they passed on the better player to draft Siakam's replacement.  The only way they do that is if they think Siakim isn't a star.

 

The only way Raptors' let go of Siakam for less than a package for a star is if they don't think he's a star.  If you put together a package as if he is a star, then the only way you are right is if Toronto is wrong about their own player.  That happens, but it isn't common.

 

(It is even worse than that because even if Toronto is willing to take a package less than a star for Siakam all you need is one team to bid like he is a star.  If Toronto doesn't think he's a star and Portland is willing to gamble that he can be one next to Lillard and make the difference for them, to get Siakam you then have to out bid Portland.  To get Siakam, you have to give up more than any other team so you have to give up more than the team that has the highest evaluation on Siakam.  The team that has the highest evaluation of Siakam is almost certainly wrong.) 

 

Trade deadline deals are a little different.  Players that are forcing themselves off of a team and have some control over where they might are different (the Dinwiddie trade).  Trades between very good and very bad teams are a little different.  But other than those sort of exceptions trading for an existing player as if they are more than they've consistently shown is almost always a losing deal.  To win that trade the team that has had the player has to misevaluated their own player.  That doesn't happen much.  Until Siakam is demanding a trade where Washington is one of his agreeable destinations trading for him will almost certainly be a losing proposition.

Edited August 5, 2021 by PeterMP

[“Misdirection”]

Montrezl averaged 20-25 mpg last three years, with 16 pts and 6.5 rebounds. 
 

we really think he’s going to wither away on the bench here of all places? 
 

I think he either gets minutes or is traded 

[Hersh]

7 hours ago, method man said:

 

Ugh. The 2023 draft is a double draft because it is the first in a while in which players from high school can go straight to the NBA. It was shrewd by Tommy to get that pick for Sato. It's too bad he is giving it away.

 

No. Wiz don't have the star power to do a 1 on 1 trade for Siakam but I doubt anyone does that given the season he is coming off of. What we do have are 3 young prospects, a full set of firsts outside of the pick that was given away with Wall (the rules around that pick do make it hard to trade firsts in general anyway) and tradeable piecemeal contracts. IT is hte type of trade you can involve 3-4 teams because there will be takers out there for guys like Bryant and Kuzma

 

The Wizards young prospects all play the same position as where Toronto has strength/depth. Bryant wouldn't return much since he's not expected back until December and he's coming off a knee injury and under contract for one season. 

5 hours ago, Destino said:

 

Point guard:  Dinwiddie and Beal will see the most minutes here.  I’d bet Neto gets more minutes than Holiday.  We won’t see much of Winston.

 

 

 

Signing Neto makes trading out of the first round more bizarre to me. If you aren't playing and developing Holiday to see if he could be good, why not grab one of the PGs sitting there at 22 and have them under contract significantly longer to develop. 

[Ball Security]

4 minutes ago, Hersh said:

 

The Wizards young prospects all play the same position as where Toronto has strength/depth. Bryant wouldn't return much since he's not expected back until December and he's coming off a knee injury and under contract for one season. 

 

Signing Neto makes trading out of the first round more bizarre to me. If you aren't playing and developing Holiday to see if he could be good, why not grab one of the PGs sitting there at 22 and have them under contract significantly longer to develop. 

Yeah, the Neto signing doesn’t make much sense when you have Holiday and Denwiddie, plus Deni’s supposed playmaking ability.  I could see some rotation of Beal, KCP, Deni, Bertans, Gafford at times.  I do think that Todd ends up better than the UK center picked at 22 though.  Brian Shaw absolutely loves him.  Says he runs the break extremely well and knows where to be.  Without Westbrook, Len, and Lopez, I can see them as more if a running team. 

[Hersh]

5 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

Yeah, the Neto signing doesn’t make much sense when you have Holiday and Denwiddie, plus Deni’s supposed playmaking ability.  I could see some rotation of Beal, KCP, Deni, Bertans, Gafford at times.  I do think that Todd ends up better than the UK center picked at 22 though.  Brian Shaw absolutely loves him.  Says he runs the break extremely well and knows where to be.  Without Westbrook, Len, and Lopez, I can see them as more if a running team. 

 

Todd is another issue. Sure he will get some G-league run again, but if you are trying to develop him, he needs NBA minutes. Bryant and Harrell are both FAs after this season. Development is gonna big an issue unless they unload some of these players. But that's unlikely now.

[abdcskins]

Holiday will be seeing more minutes at PG than people expect. Todd will also get some time. I think Harrell and Gafford will be on the court more often than not. Our defense should be much better with those two getting regular minutes. 

[Hersh]

9 minutes ago, abdcskins said:

Holiday will be seeing more minutes at PG than people expect. Todd will also get some time. I think Harrell and Gafford will be on the court more often than not. Our defense should be much better with those two getting regular minutes. 

 

That's a lot of players getting minutes. Not sure how much a player develops if they get a few minutes a game. 

[abdcskins]

Just now, Hersh said:

 

That's a lot of players getting minutes. Not sure how much a player develops if they get a few minutes a game. 

 

The roster is definitely stacked right now. I'm sure there will be some moves. I'd love to see them get rid of Bertans, he's sort of worthless imo with Kispert, Rui, Kuzma, Harrell, and Todd on the squad. His conract unfortunately makes that difficult. 

[Ball Security]

5 minutes ago, abdcskins said:

 

The roster is definitely stacked right now. I'm sure there will be some moves. I'd love to see them get rid of Bertans, he's sort of worthless imo with Kispert, Rui, Kuzma, Harrell, and Todd on the squad. His conract unfortunately makes that difficult. 

I’d be on the phone with Dallas.  I always thought they could use a spacing shooter.

 

This won’t be the same roster going into October.

[method man]

2 hours ago, Ball Security said:

Yeah, the Neto signing doesn’t make much sense when you have Holiday and Denwiddie, plus Deni’s supposed playmaking ability.  I could see some rotation of Beal, KCP, Deni, Bertans, Gafford at times.  I do think that Todd ends up better than the UK center picked at 22 though.  Brian Shaw absolutely loves him.  Says he runs the break extremely well and knows where to be.  Without Westbrook, Len, and Lopez, I can see them as more if a running team. 

 

Neto is honestly more of a combo guard than a point guard. He plays well off the ball. Glad they brought him back - I bet we see lineups with both Neto and Holiday out there on the second unit.

 

 

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]