Welcome to the Commanders Jer'Zhan Newton DT Illinois

[The Consigliere]

5 hours ago, 757SeanTaylor21 said:

Ok...so what about him turning 27 is drastically different? Is his ability going to nose dive into tjr abyss cause hes 1 year older then i mentioned? He will be what...30? 29? When his contract is up...why would we trade him when by the time his contract is up Newton is just finishing his rookie contract...makes 0 sense.

Look at the prime production years of players. Its pretty clear. The world isn't going to end or anything, but it is worth paying attention to these things, a players prime is generally age 21-26, sometimes it can extend to 27, but your getting your peak year production usually in the mid 20s, if a guy is 27, hes more likely to either be starting his downhill trend, or starting it within the year. That's why it matters. 

 

Your peak years of Allen were what we've already had. Production profiles suggest that typically you get about a 1 in 5 to 1 in 7 chance that a player will return that production after age 26 or 27, so Allen's probably donezo in that sense and Payne is close to. As for Payne's age, he'll be turning 30 the year he enters free agency. As for trading Payne, the reason is pretty simple (really for either of them), they are luxuries, whatever they've got left, they will be giving us in rebuild seasons. It's one thing to get peak Allen or Payne when we're fighting for a playoff spot, it's another thing when we're trying to top the Vegas Over/Under of a 6-11 or 7-10 season. Whatever they do is unlikely to move the needle substantially in terms of wins and losses, but getting some value back, might actually do that in the form of draft capital, or young players with multiple years of cost control on rookie deals etc. 

 

That being said, I don't see the team trading either of them this year unless one makes a demand. They know the cancer at the root of the team is gone, they know there's a direction now, they know they are on long term deals for multiple years. They could make a request if they're sick of losing and don't want to spend what's left of their semi-prime playing for a bottom 10 team, maybe Allen does that, I'm not sold Payne will, and its largely immaterial. If a trade happens it would happen in October or next offseason, its moot now. 

[Dark Acre]

7 hours ago, Berggy9598 said:

What about his athletic ability will start immediately eroding when he wakes up on his 27th birthday? 

Depends on the hangover....

 

That's a great video of Newton.  Unless he's got a secret dark side (and with a cute baby like that, I doubt it), there's no way he's going to slack off, not do his job, party hearty, etc.  Didn't having a kid turn things around for Sean Taylor? (RIP)

Edited May 2 by Dark Acre

[skinny21]

7 hours ago, sinews said:

The more I learn about this guy, the more I like. Adam Peters definitely has a type and I think what makes him such a good talent evaluator (part of it at least) is that he's perceptive enough to scout intangibles and which of those qualities translates to good football players. Not saying he's perfect–it's one of the most difficult things to do–but I think he's better than most at it.

 

You could sum it up with a Gibbs-ism: "he's super smart." Anyway, just a cool little video here, had no idea he was a dad.

 

 

 

 

Probably gonna sound like an old kermudgin, but I’ll be honest, my first thought after reading your statement was “A baby in college?  That’s not necessarily great…”, but wow, he absolutely lights up talking about her.  Great stuff.

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

My dog keeps saying Orhorhoro every morning when I’m making his breakfast. I think he’s mad that we missed out on him by a pick.

Edited May 4 by Sacks 'n' Stuff

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[DWinzit]

I paid very little attention to DT leading up to the draft. When I heard DT announced as our pick at 36 my initial thought was negative.

 

Now every time I read or watch more on Newton I get more amped up and am more anxious to see him on the field than almost any other new acquisition. 

[RandyHolt]

Ron largely did not draft for need IMO. He basically ignored QB, stockpiled defense with questionable top picks, and ignored the OL.

 

I have PTSD from him drafting defenders as a priority (and the stacked defense failing in spectacular fashion) so was jaded at the pick but if Newton sees the field along side Allen and Payne and gets us immediate return on investment the pick will work out fine.

 

All things equal I think its a mistake to draft a first round grade player on defense and at best them be rotational or "maybe a starter by year 2 or 3". Blame Jamin Mathis Forbes et al. Maybe even Quan. I get it; modern defense is all about shuttling your best players off the field to put in spackle backups - I am just old school and don't always like it. Give me Allen a supreme athlete arguably our best player full time vs Allen splitting time with Potatoe' or Mathis. Now, subbing him out for Newton I could sign off on (i like to see top rookies PLAY) but again, we are taking a TOTAL STUD off the field. The push back to folks like me?  Allen NEEDS a breather he is really gassed. Oh really. Any proof to that?

 

Food for thought: A 320 pound DL sprinting to the sideline (or back on the field) to avoid a 12th man may gas them more, than staying in the game actually does. Actual game time with players going full bore is a mere 11 minutes, all very liberally spread out over 3 hours.

 

I really hope we have a package with our 3 stud DL in the game at the same time, A TON.

Edited May 6 by RandyHolt

[method man]

15 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

Ron largely did not draft for need IMO. He basically ignored QB, stockpiled defense with questionable top picks, and ignored the OL.

 

I have PTSD from him drafting defenders as a priority (and the stacked defense failing in spectacular fashion) so was jaded at the pick but if Newton sees the field along side Allen and Payne and gets us immediate return on investment the pick will work out fine.

 

All things equal I think its a mistake to draft a first round grade player on defense and at best them be rotational or "maybe a starter by year 2 or 3". Blame Jamin Mathis Forbes et al. Maybe even Quan. I get it; modern defense is all about shuttling your best players off the field to put in spakle backups - I am just old school and don't always like it. Give me Allen a supreme athlete arguably our best player full time vs Allen splitting time with Potatoe' or Mathis. Now, subbing him out for Newton I could sign off on (i like to see top rookies PLAY) but again, we are taking a TOTAL STUD off the field. The push back to folks like me?  Allen NEEDS a breather he is really gassed. Oh really. Any proof to that?

 

Food for thought: A 320 pound DL sprinting to the sideline (or back on the field) to avoid a 12th man may gas them more, than staying in the game actually does.

 

I really hope we have a package with our 3 stud DL in the game at the same time, A TON.

Back 7 players don’t really rotate out of a game if they are great players. It speaks to Jamin’s limitations that he has not played 100% of snaps.

[RandyHolt]

32 minutes ago, method man said:

Back 7 players don’t really rotate out of a game if they are great players. It speaks to Jamin’s limitations that he has not played 100% of snaps.

Agree but more so to the 4 DBs IMO. Backers sub out quite a bit. Regardless any of those back 7 top draft picks barely able to get on the field yet should be full time players, are absolute disasters of a draft pick. 

 

Just like a top pick in the front 4 that barely sees the field, its simply not wise usage of draft capital. All things equal I think top picks should be focused on full time players.

 

Defenders are being subbed out because the modern day defensive coordinator clearly likes complexity with multiple packages in confusing exotic schemes. Its no surprise we see blown coverages so often. Subs come at a price more than just taking your best players off the field.

Edited May 6 by RandyHolt

[Rex Tomb]

On 5/4/2024 at 3:02 PM, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

My dog keeps saying Orhorhoro every morning when I’m making his breakfast. I think he’s mad that we missed out on him by a pick.

What was hilarious was hearing how many times the analyst who was talking about the pick had to say his name - it must have been like 15 times in two minutes... probably felt a little bit like a tongue twister by the end... howmuchwoodcouldawoodchuckchuck.

[redskinss]

39 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

All things equal I think its a mistake to draft a first round grade player on defense and at best them be rotational or "maybe a starter by year 2 or 3".

 

Seems like kind of an odd way of looking at it, because we got him in the second round you had to use the phrase "first round grade" which is an admission that we got him at a discount but implies that maybe his talents are being wasted and I don't think that's a good reason to not want him on your team.

If he's as good as most think he is trust me we'll get plenty of use out of him and the fact he was grabbed in the second will be a steal.

 

[kingdaddy]

Dallas and Philly both just lost their starting centers this off-season....The strength of our defense is gonna be the interior defensive line and it just got massively better with this pick. I want the Boys in week 1 so they have to deal with our new triplets right out of the gate. I don't know when we're gonna be able to run to the restroom this season given the excitement there will be on both sides of the ball? 

[RandyHolt]

42 minutes ago, redskinss said:

 

Seems like kind of an odd way of looking at it, because we got him in the second round you had to use the phrase "first round grade" which is an admission that we got him at a discount but implies that maybe his talents are being wasted and I don't think that's a good reason to not want him on your team.

If he's as good as most think he is trust me we'll get plenty of use out of him and the fact he was grabbed in the second will be a steal.

 

There is enough disagreement within the scouting service for me to label him a first round grade and it not be far off base.  Heck, Maye was consensus #2. What happened?

 

Its kind of odd you are splitting hairs over me calling him a first round grade taken 4th in round 2, and then go on to say "trust me we'll get plenty of use out of him and the fact he was grabbed in the second will be a steal". Isn't a 2nd round "steal" basically the same as a first round talent, and just the scouts or GMs were a little off?

 

I'll counter that and say trust me, we will all wish he could be on the field full time.

Edited May 6 by RandyHolt

[redskinss]

3 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

There is a enough disagreement within the scouting service for me to label him a first round grade and it not be far off base.  Heck, Maye was consensus #2. What happened?

 

Its kind of odd you are splitting hairs over me calling him a first round grade, and then go on to say "trust me we'll get plenty of use out of him and the fact he was grabbed in the second will be a steal". Isn't a 2nd round "steal" basically the same as a first round talent, and just the scouts or GMs were a little off?

 

I'll counter that and say trust me, we will all wish he could be on the field full time.

 

No what I'm saying is by using the term "first round grade" while also saying it's a mistake because he's only going to be rotational or a full time starter by year 2 or 3 suggests you don't have a problem picking a player at a position of lesser need more so than picking a player who's too good to be a rotational player.

Almost suggesting that you're ok with picking a defensive tackle but would rather a guy who's talent is more fitting of a rotational player which seems weird to me.

 

 

[goskins10]

1 hour ago, RandyHolt said:

Ron largely did not draft for need IMO. He basically ignored QB, stockpiled defense with questionable top picks, and ignored the OL.

 

I have PTSD from him drafting defenders as a priority (and the stacked defense failing in spectacular fashion) so was jaded at the pick but if Newton sees the field along side Allen and Payne and gets us immediate return on investment the pick will work out fine.

 

All things equal I think its a mistake to draft a first round grade player on defense and at best them be rotational or "maybe a starter by year 2 or 3". Blame Jamin Mathis Forbes et al. Maybe even Quan. I get it; modern defense is all about shuttling your best players off the field to put in spackle backups - I am just old school and don't always like it. Give me Allen a supreme athlete arguably our best player full time vs Allen splitting time with Potatoe' or Mathis. Now, subbing him out for Newton I could sign off on (i like to see top rookies PLAY) but again, we are taking a TOTAL STUD off the field. The push back to folks like me?  Allen NEEDS a breather he is really gassed. Oh really. Any proof to that?

 

Food for thought: A 320 pound DL sprinting to the sideline (or back on the field) to avoid a 12th man may gas them more, than staying in the game actually does. Actual game time with players going full bore is a mere 11 minutes, all very liberally spread out over 3 hours.

 

I really hope we have a package with our 3 stud DL in the game at the same time, A TON.

 

Not sure where you heard Newton will be mostly rotational or maybe not see the field at all. Right now Allen and Payne are seeing way too many snaps. It showed in Allens drop off in performance last year as he got nicked up but could not get off the field. The team has said there are probably 400 snaps for Newton. I could not disagree more with the analogy of them running off the field. It's not like you hve them changing out every play. It's more like 3 to 4 downs at a time. And they NEED rest. That way they stay fresh for the 4th Q when you need thme to make big plays. 

 

That's not including when all 3 are on the field at the same time. To them being on the field together, they have already stated they have plans to get all 3 on the field at times. I would not say a ton. All over the NFL there has been a move to 5 man fronts on critical downs. This is when I would expect them to get Allen Payne, and Newton on the field at the same time. 

 

Newton was an amazing get at that point of the draft and he will NOT just ride the bench unless his game does not translate. And that happens. But the information there is on him suggests he will be a beast. I can't wait to see how they use him and the others. 

[Dah-Dee]

ESPN article on draft surprises discusses Newton:

 

2024 NFL draft confidential: College coaches' surprises, sleepers

https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/40076470/nfl-draft-2024-college-coaches-confidential-sleepers-surprises

 

Illinois defensive tackle Jer'Zhan Newton was a two-time AP All-America selection, a consensus All-American in 2023, the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year and a Nagurski Trophy finalist.

 

"Everybody thought he was going to be a first-rounder," a Big Ten coordinator said.

 

But Newton had to wait until the second round, when Washington drafted him 36th overall.

 

"When he [gave full effort], he was unblockable," a Big Ten coach said. "His problem is, it's on and off. He's not consistent with his effort, and at that level, if you want to be a first-rounder, you better be a freakazoid or relentless effort. But when we watched his film, we were like, 'If he's going to play hard the whole game, I don't think we can block this guy.'"

 

Edited May 6 by Dah-Dee

[mistertim]

4 minutes ago, Dah-Dee said:

ESPN article on draft surprises discusses Newton:

 

2024 NFL draft confidential: College coaches' surprises, sleepers

https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/40076470/nfl-draft-2024-college-coaches-confidential-sleepers-surprises

 

Illinois defensive tackle Jer'Zhan Newton was a two-time AP All-America selection, a consensus All-American in 2023, the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year and a Nagurski Trophy finalist.

 

"Everybody thought he was going to be a first-rounder," a Big Ten coordinator said.

 

But Newton had to wait until the second round, when Washington drafted him 36th overall.

 

"When he [gave full effort], he was unblockable," a Big Ten coach said. "His problem is, it's on and off. He's not consistent with his effort, and at that level, if you want to be a first-rounder, you better be a freakazoid or relentless effort. But when we watched his film, we were like, 'If he's going to play hard the whole game, I don't think we can block this guy.'"

 

 

That's rather odd. One thing I noticed in watching his cutups is how nonstop his motor seems to be.

[redskinss]

Just now, mistertim said:

 

That's rather odd. One thing I noticed in watching his cutups is how nonstop his motor seems to be.

That's exactly what I was just thinking, and the media consensus has all seemed to suggest he has a non stop motor, I've heard it a dozen times with this guy.

 

That was very surprising to read and almost tantalizing, if he was that good going half assed imagine what he'll do if we can motivate him. 😁

[mistertim]

Winner for the best description of Newton is Fox Sports: "A bowling ball of butcher knives"

[RandyHolt]

23 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

 

Not sure where you heard Newton will be mostly rotational or maybe not see the field at all. Right now Allen and Payne are seeing way too many snaps. It showed in Allens drop off in performance last year as he got nicked up but could not get off the field. The team has said there are probably 400 snaps for Newton. I could not disagree more with the analogy of them running off the field. It's not like you hve them changing out every play. It's more like 3 to 4 downs at a time. And they NEED rest. That way they stay fresh for the 4th Q when you need thme to make big plays. 

 

That's not including when all 3 are on the field at the same time. To them being on the field together, they have already stated they have plans to get all 3 on the field at times. I would not say a ton. All over the NFL there has been a move to 5 man fronts on critical downs. This is when I would expect them to get Allen Payne, and Newton on the field at the same time. 

 

Newton was an amazing get at that point of the draft and he will NOT just ride the bench unless his game does not translate. And that happens. But the information there is on him suggests he will be a beast. I can't wait to see how they use him and the others. 

Woah woah they said he was going to get ~400 snaps??  I can't wait to see him in beast mode too.  My complaint is not about the player at all, its a fear that our best players wont be used as much as possible since our 3 best players on D play the same position. And sure enough, we hear the 3 will be on the field at times. Almost reeks of PR damage control to validate drafting him into a position of strength. Why show our hand to OCs in April??

 

Newton seems flexible and Q seems smart enough to move him around. Only, our DCs have failed to meet my expectations for 2 decades despite my 2 decades of buying into what they say when hired. We are gonna attack the QB and force turnovers... yeah right.

 

You say players need rest. I am sticking to my guns. They get rest after every play. Hurry up is almost completely gone less the 2 minute drills. Allen goes full bore for 5 minutes across 3 hours. Again, a world class athlete. It's 100% pure speculation that he needs rest. What he needs is to be at full health to play full time and be effective.  Allen had a foot injury plantars?? that maybe never fully healed. That **** is painful as F and was on the injured list all year. And he had a knee late.

 

 

Edited May 6 by RandyHolt

[skinny21]

44 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

Agree but more so to the 4 DBs IMO. Backers sub out quite a bit. Regardless any of those back 7 top draft picks barely able to get on the field yet should be full time players, are absolute disasters of a draft pick. 

 

Just like a top pick in the front 4 that barely sees the field, its simply not wise usage of draft capital. All things equal I think top picks should be focused on full time players.

 

Defenders are being subbed out because the modern day defensive coordinator clearly likes complexity with multiple packages in confusing exotic schemes. Its no surprise we see blown coverages so often. Subs come at a price more than just taking your best players off the field.

Pretty sure subbing is more often about matchups than trying to be exotic.  And I’d think that different packages actually means less info for a player to have learn/retain.

 

As for Newton (and the philosophy around the pick), the combo of BPA, focusing on beefing up the trenches, being able to play all 3 DTs at the same time (at times), keeping your guys on the line fresh, and succession planning (and really, Allen could be traded as soon as this year) make this a pretty savvy pick, IMO.  I do get your point though, and all things being equal, it makes sense to prefer a player that will be on the field more often.

 

To me, Sainristil might fit your complaints a bit better (even though I like the pick).  Martin performed well in the slot (and St Juste can play there as well) and is only in his second year, so I can understand it feeling more like “we can find ways to get Sainristil in the game” and “we added depth”.  Of course, if/when Sainristil gets up to speed, I think the plan might be to have Martin play FS and serve as a chess piece type.

 

As for your point about subbing and energy burned, 1) subs usually occur when an offense subs (and the defense must be given time to sub), and 2) a player that stays in might have to stay in for multiple plays if a team goes to hurry up.  Additionally, I’ll share an anecdote - I had one wrestling match in HS and I was mind-numbingly, could barely stand type of exhausted after the 3 minutes.  Fast forward 30+ years and me out of shape, I’ve never been that exhausted after playing 2 hours of soccer, running my *** off.  It’s just a different animal.

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, method man said:

Back 7 players don’t really rotate out of a game if they are great players. It speaks to Jamin’s limitations that he has not played 100% of snaps.

 

I'm not sure that is true.  I'm looking at the snap counts of the best linebackers in the NFL and Jamin's snap count last season would have been the same as Fred Warner's average season.  He played 57 per game, which puts him at 970 for the year if he didn't get hurt and go on IR.  I don't think there is anything wrong with rotating linebackers off the field and limiting their snap counts.  Jeremiah Owusu-Koromoah made the Probowl last season as the best linebacker on the best defense while only playing 47 snaps per game.

[goskins10]

4 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

Woah woah they said he was going to get ~400 snaps??  I can't wait to see him in beast mode too.  My complaint is not about the player at all, its a fear that our best players wont be used as much as possible since our 3 best players on D play the same position. And sure enough, we hear the 3 will be on the field at times. Almost reeks of PR damage control to validate drafting him into a position of strength. Why show our hand to OCs in April??

 

I absolutely do not get this at all. PR damage control? Sorry, that makes zero sense. As far as "showing OCs thier hand" - it's blatantly obvious they would get those 3 on the field at the same time. That was for fans who have a narrow "old school" view of things. Philly has maintained a dominant DLine bvy doubling down on a position of strength year over year. SO have other great dlines. 

 

4 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

 

Newton seems flexible and Q seems smart enough to move him around. Only, our DCs have failed to meet my expectations for 2 decades despite my 2 decades of buying into what they say when hired. We are gonna attack the QB...

 

 

Lumping this FO is with the previous 25+ yrs of snyder's disaster also makes no sense. This group has shown so far to be much more calculated and intelligent in how they go about things. Does not mean they can't be ciritsized. But this pick seems an odd hill to stand on. 

 

4 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

 

You say players need rest. I am sticking to my guns. They get rest after every play. Hurry up is almost completely gone less the 2 minute drills. Allen goes full bore for 5 minutes across 3 hours. Again, a world class athlete. It's 100% pure speculation that he needs rest. What he needs is to be at full health to play full time and be effective.  Allen had a foot injury plantars?? that maybe never fully healed. That **** is painful as F and was on the injured list all year. And he had a knee late.

 

 

Players needing rest is not a guess or just my opinion. It's a fact. This is why there are more than one person at a position. Think of the most dominant DLines in football. They all have players that are interchangable and they rotate thme to keep them fresh. Could they play the whole game? Of course. But are they more effective if they are used more strtegically? Yes. 

 

[The Consigliere]

2 hours ago, DWinzit said:

I paid very little attention to DT leading up to the draft. When I heard DT announced as our pick at 36 my initial thought was negative.

 

Now every time I read or watch more on Newton I get more amped up and am more anxious to see him on the field than almost any other new acquisition. 

Me too, if he stays healthy it feels like we got a classic dude that goes 10-15 in most drafts, like the '18 class where we just missed on Vita Vea or '02 when like 4 DT's went top 12. They seem to drift down further these days I think do to cap related reasons and best management of draft capital (you really need to invest your top picks on positions that cost the most to sign/franchise guys in free agency: its the most efficient use of draft capital and cap dollars to get them cheap on rookie deals rather than pay through the nose in FA, that is why Bowers fell. TE is cheap to franchise, cheap to extend, and the top earners earn fractions of what the top WR's, Edge's, QB's, DB's earn etc). Love, love, love the pick. Just looks explosive and special. If he can stay healthy, I think we'll be thrilled. 

 

 

[Going Commando]

The best defenses don't play any of their IDLs more than 60-65% of their snaps.  I don't think we've ever really appreciated how crazy and detrimental it was that we played Daron 900+ snaps some years, and that he sits at over 800 snaps on average.  And Allen hasn't been that far off from that, which is worse because we know he has chronic shoulder issues.  Aaron Donald was basically the only IDL in the NFL that can handle that workload and remain effective, and he retired super young for a GOAT tier DT.

 

The best defenses have their top IDLs play 600 to low 700 snaps per season, and that needs to be the pitch count for Allen and Payne.  That means there will easily be 500+ snaps available for Newton if he is healthy and earns the IDL3 job.  And that's assuming we don't play any of them at edge or run 3 IDL packages.  Great defenses almost all play a four man rotation at IDL, with three players getting 400-700 snaps.  We have been ruining Allen and Payne by playing them too much ever since Ioannidis went down in 2020.

 

If we get 500 snaps from Newton next year, and 200+ from either Ridgeway or Mathis, then that'd put Allen and Payne at upper 600s or very low 700s at most, and I promise you will see a drastic improvement in the performance of both the DL and the defense as a whole.  ~670 is the sweet spot for them, and if we can hit that from a full season, then the best years of their careers are ahead.

Edited May 6 by Going Commando