2024 Schedule News, Rumors, and Mocks

[88Comrade2000]

I move the ceiling to 9-8 now, with a little luck. Anywhere from 7-10 to 9-8.

[Riggo#44]

On 5/14/2024 at 6:30 PM, clskinsfan said:

RG3 canned from Monday night football. 

 

 

Replaced a self-aggrandizing windbag for a tongue chewing babbling obnoxious idiot.

[Skinsinparadise]

I think the idea of we have no idea of who is good or bad is an overplayed point -- I blame Sheehan for this, he loves this take. 

 

If it was framed that its possible that a bad team becomes good and a good team becomes bad and there is a given unpredictability to any schedule especially because of injuries -- that to me is dead on.

 

But if you bet on the odds for example, Carolina isn't winnng the SB next year for example and the Eagles are likely a better team then them, you are more likely to be correct than wrong -- I thnk there is a reason why Vegas doesn't see it as an even money bet that Carolina = Eagles. 

 

Just like you can't say for certain how things play out you can also bet that the odds are greater that a team with Lamar Jackson at the helm will likely be better than a team with Will Levis at the helm, etc.  Nothing is certain in life no doubt.  But playing the odds is about more likely outcomes.  And more likely outcomes indeed exist.

Edited May 16 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

Tough for me to predict the record based on the schedule.  All depends to me on Jayden Daniels.  If he lights the league on fire from the jump, its not outrageous to me that they can go 11-6.  If he goes medium than maybe 8-9.  If he struggles which I don't expect, 6-11

 

Hindsight tends to overtake things where points change from where they were in real time.  For example, I see a bunch of pundit types say now wow yeah the Texans were loaded hence they won last year.  Stroud was surrounded by hat great O line and weapons. 

 

When reality was their offensive line was ravaged by injuries.  Dudes like Nico Collins were considered just a guy at the time until he blossomed playing with Stroud, etc.  And back then many thought the Texans would have the worst record in the NFL.  But now apparently it was a stacked roster and Stroud just had to play and play with their well oiled machine. 

 

My point is the QB can change the narrative more dramatically than even some give them credit for.

 

Heck when we won the division in 2012 with RG3 catching fire.  The defense was meh.  Weapons just OK.

 

I think this team has enough talent to win if the QB catches fire. 

 

Texans overcame league's highest injury total in 2023

https://texanswire.usatoday.com/2024/03/10/texans-overcame-leagues-highest-injury-total-in-2023/

The Houston Texans struggled with injuries as far back as August when they found out two 2022 offensive line starters would miss the season. Former starting center Scott Quessenberry tore his ACL on Aug. 3, and then first-round pick Kenyon Green suffered a season-ending shoulder injury.

Houston’s injury luck didn’t improve in the regular season as the Texans led the league in injuries to significant players, according to the adjusted games lost metric (AGL) from FTN Fantasy.

Despite the rash of injuries, Houston finished 10-7, won the AFC South and made the playoffs for the first time since 2019. The Texans then beat the Cleveland Browns, who also had several injuries of their own, in the wild-card round.

FTN Fantasy charted the AGL for each team and found that injuries declined in 2023. However, the Texans did not have that luxury — especially on the offensive line.

Houston set a new record with 82.1 AGL, which surpassed the previous record set by the Los Angeles Rams in 2022. The Texans shuffled constantly throughout the regular season, starting seven different offensive line combinations. No group up front played more than four consecutive games together.

Texans right guard Shaq Mason was the only lineman to play all 17 regular season games. Green, tackle Tytus Howard, and rookie linemen Jarrett Patterson and Juice Scruggs each accounted for 10 AGL.

 

The lack of continuity up front likely contributed to the running game struggles. Houston averaged 3.7 yards per carry, tied with the Las Vegas Raiders for fourth-worst in the league. The Texans’ pass blocking was slightly better, with 47 sacks surrendered — just outside the bottom-10 in the league.

 

The injury bug also bit Houston’s defensive back room. Eric Murray, Jimmie Ward, Tavierre Thomas and Derek Stingley combined to account for 33.4 AGL. General manager Nick Caserio made savvy moves on the waiver wire, like signing safety DeAndre Houston-Carson to plug the holes caused by injury.

Houston receivers accounted for 17.2 AGL, the fifth-most in the league. Noah Brown and rookie Tank Dell were the biggest contributors to this metric.

 

Brown, who signed in 2023, was hampered by a multitude of injuries throughout the regular season as well and ended the year on injured reserve with a shoulder injury he suffered in the wild-card round. Dell sustained a broken fibula in the Texans’ Week 13 victory over the Denver Broncos and missed the rest of the season.

Edited May 16 by Skinsinparadise

[mhd24]

To me, the schedule is always about the opposite QBs.  Here's who we face:

 

Elite (Tier 1):

Burrow (away)

Lamar (away)

 

Very Good (Tier 2):

Dak (x2)

Hurts (x2)

 

Good (Tier 3):

Kirk (home)

 

Average (Tier 4):

Carr (away)

Baker (away)

Watson (home)

Kyler (away)

 

Below Average (Tier 5):

Wilson (home)

Jones (x2)

 

Unknown (Tier 6):

Caleb (home)

Levis (home)

Bryce (home)

 

 

[Llevron]

7 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

To me, the schedule is always about the opposite QBs.  Here's who we face:

 

Elite (Tier 1):

Burrow (away)

Lamar (away)

 

Very Good (Tier 2):

Dak (x2)

Hurts (x2)

 

Good (Tier 3):

Kirk (home)

 

Average (Tier 4):

Carr (away)

Baker (away)

Watson (home)

Kyler (away)

 

Below Average (Tier 5):

Wilson (home)

Jones (x2)

 

Unknown (Tier 6):

Caleb (home)

Levis (home)

Bryce (home)

 

 

 

I think this is the correct way to think about it. A few notes though:

 

• We play Cinnci early and Burrow is a notoriously slow starter. Win for us imo
• You have Kirk as just good? Think he is too low. Maybe the team is just good but I think he is every bit as good as Dak and Hurts, probably better. 
• I don't trust Wilson and the stealers. I know Wilson is not the same and never will be. But neither him nor Tomlin should be seen as walks. Ever. 

[Warhead36]

When we play the Bengals they'll be coming off a road SNF game in Kansas City, so it could be a trap game kinda thing. Of course, playing on MNF kinda eliminates some of the trap game aura I guess. 

[kingdaddy]

10 hours ago, mhd24 said:

 

Well they are playing @ Dallas at 4:25 before that Thursday game while we play home against Pittsburgh.  They'll have less time to prepare, plus. are coming back from a 3 hour plane ride.

Good point, and hopefully Dallas beats them up some although Pittsburgh is gonna be tough for us too. They get after it. 

[clskinsfan]

 

[mhd24]

1 hour ago, Llevron said:

 

I think this is the correct way to think about it. A few notes though:

 

• We play Cinnci early and Burrow is a notoriously slow starter. Win for us imo
• You have Kirk as just good? Think he is too low. Maybe the team is just good but I think he is every bit as good as Dak and Hurts, probably better. 
• I don't trust Wilson and the stealers. I know Wilson is not the same and never will be. But neither him nor Tomlin should be seen as walks. Ever. 

 

 

Dak was a near MVP last year while Hurts was in the super bowl two years ago.  Kirk is coming off an Achilles injury and going to a new team.  I think Dak & Hurts are comfortably ahead of Kirk due to all those factors.

[Llevron]

8 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

 

 

Dak was a near MVP last year while Hurts was in the super bowl two years ago.  Kirk is coming off an Achilles injury and going to a new team.  I think Dak & Hurts are comfortably ahead of Kirk due to all those factors.

 

How he comes back from his achilles is the only factor here for me. I'm comfortable putting Kirk above both of them, even on his new team, outside of that. He is just better than both of them imo. Hurts I think can possibly be a more athletic version of him. Dak is too turnover prone to compete imho. I have not dived into analytics to prove this. We don't have to fight that hard. Just my possibly uneducated opinion on it. 

 

But you aint gonna get me of all people on here defending Kirk Cousins lol

[88Comrade2000]

Kirk is so good, Atlanta already drafted his replacement.

[Warhead36]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

 

Steelers should be in the QB purgatory group as well and the Colts should also be in the young QB tier. 

[Simmsy]

I'm not sure how I feel about the schedule. At first, I thought it would be rough, now I think we have a chance for a post season. Our tough stretch is in the beginning, hoping our opponents aren't firing on all cylinders yet.

[Riggo#44]

Quasi relevant to this topic. These uniforms could be a competitive advantage, as the competition won't be able to take the Giants seriously in these.

 

[Conn]

I voted 7-10 in the poll, which I consider to be extremely optimistic. 
 

But if people think there’s a chance for a Stroud/Texans like surprise surge…this is the sort of schedule you’d need to pull it off. So I won’t rule it out. Depends on a lot of factors, but most of all it depends on Daniels being ahead of schedule and our defense immediately transforming into a top-12 unit.

 

I won’t rule it out. It’s not a daunting schedule or arrangement of games/travel. 
 

Still unlikely of course.

[Idaho fan]

OUCH

 

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

I literally just learned that this thread existed to predict the schedule.

 

Why on earth would that be interesting?

 

Anyway.

 

Go, team.

[kleese]

2 hours ago, Lombardi's_kid_brother said:

I literally just learned that this thread existed to predict the schedule.

 

Why on earth would that be interesting?

 

Anyway.

 

Go, team.

It’s always been WAY more interesting to me than mock drafts. Started doodling schedules on my folders as a kind in school in the 80s. I think it’s because I also find all of the network/broadcasting stuff highly interesting as well. There is forum out there for it, just like ES is dedicated to the team— The 501 on discord. Sort of media breakdown of scheduling and broadcasting topics. I love it. The schedule also affects me personally more than any other aspect of the off-season. The planning can never start too early. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

9 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I think the idea of we have no idea of who is good or bad is an overplayed point -- I blame Sheehan for this, he loves this take. 

From Galdi: 

 

Your guy Warren Sharpe ranked the 2023 schedule as the 6th hardest in August of last year.

 

According to the DVOA strength of schedule rankings at the end of the season, it was 22.

Im sure I'm going to get a blow by blow account of why. And a full throated defense of mustachio.  
 

Also, Sharpe uses Vegas win totals as part of his formula.  Vegas typically underestimates 1/3 of the league, overestimates 1/3 of the league, and is really close.  Becuase they’re not trying to be right, they’re trying to get equal betting on both sides.  
 

Absent a few elite teams who you can predict will be elite unless there is a QB injury, the rest of the league is a huge ?

 

[Est.1974]

3 hours ago, Lombardi's_kid_brother said:

I literally just learned that this thread existed to predict the schedule.

 

Why on earth would that be interesting?

 

Anyway.

 

Go, team.

What the **** did you think it was for ?

[Riggo#44]

Need to take the stadium back!

 

[Skinsinparadise]

3 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

From Galdi: 

 

Your guy Warren Sharpe ranked the 2023 schedule as the 6th hardest in August of last year.

 

According to the DVOA strength of schedule rankings at the end of the season, it was 22.

Im sure I'm going to get a blow by blow account of why. And a full throated defense of mustachio.  
 

Also, Sharpe uses Vegas win totals as part of his formula.  Vegas typically underestimates 1/3 of the league, overestimates 1/3 of the league, and is really close.  Becuase they’re not trying to be right, they’re trying to get equal betting on both sides.  
 

Absent a few elite teams who you can predict will be elite unless there is a QB injury, the rest of the league is a huge ?

 

 

Don't care enough to give you a blow by blow.   And my point was never about absolutes.  I don't believe in absolutes in much.  Exceptions exist.  

 

In the last 36 years, 4 new teams on average are in the playoffs every year that weren't their the previous year.  So that's a constant change year after year.  But is the playoffs mostly new teams who haven't been there the previous year?  Not typically.  Could it happen on an off year here and there.  Sure.    

 

But its about playing the odds.  I recall the example I gave you last year.  We can say we are playing the Cardinals and the Bills and we have no idea who the harder team is -- that was your point.  My point is I'd bet the Bills are the better team.  Not with 100% certainty.  But the odds are decent enough.

 

In addition, besides outliers being a given and no doubt there is a certain unpredictable element to any season, stats can be manipulated to make almost any point.  I should know, I used to TA stats in college, the professor I worked for would harp on how stats can be manipulated and often are, it was basically his mantra and then he'd teach us how to do just that.

 

The Giants collapse and went from having a good team the year before to a bad team last year and you play them twice.  Jets have an injured Aaron Rodgers and then suck.  Then you average all these teams together in one soup and that will dilute strength of schedule.  If you played an awful team it diminishes your SOS.  But the problem is you don't get an extra bonus from beating a 3-14 team lets say --  so I am not sure what stats all these guys use but for example I wouldn't use the traditional SOS because its misleading.  

 

More on point, you can cherry pick a team or a season to make any case.  Now if you told me on average the MAJORITY of teams predicted SOS or whatever metric you like to use is proven to be closer to the reverse in the end -- where the hard schedules are shown in the end to be easy and vice versa, and here's data over years to indicate this point which measures the same variables for apples to apples comparisons -- then you'd get my attention.

 

Otherwise, the way I take your point on that IMO you are reaching extreme implications about a basic point.  If you stuck to the basic point that yes there will be some teams that suck that end up good and some teams that are good and suck the year before and also injuries all combine to add a wildcard element to a season -- I'd say duh and right on.     But you take the point way farther than that.  That's our disagreement. 😉

Edited May 17 by Skinsinparadise

[Warhead36]

1 hour ago, Riggo#44 said:

Need to take the stadium back!

 

And we'll send them home in tears.

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

20 hours ago, Est.1974 said:

What the **** did you think it was for ?

I thought it was like....gametimes and ****...

 

That seemed pretty stupid in and of itself, but I'm used to the Boomers here asking questions like "What channel is the game on?"

 

So,,,,you know.....