Global Conflict Escalations

[Bang]

Across the globe conflicts are escalating involving either the US directly, or our direct interests or allies. More than the usual juntas and coups and assorted small fires always going on somewhere on earth, great powers are moving closer to war, and the words "World War III" are not being used in a facetious way so much anymore. So this can be a thread to post news of these events, our involvement, etc., beyond the politics of the other threads.

 

 

 

This is from December 26
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/super-hornets-score-air-to-air-kills-over-red-sea

Super Hornets score aerial kills over Red Sea
Yemen's Houthis unleashed a new onslaught of anti-ship and land attack weaponry today around the southern end of the Red Sea. U.S. Central Command says the Arleigh Burke class destroyer USS Laboon (DDG-58) and F/A-18 Super Hornets from the Eisenhower Carrier Strike group shot down a dozen one-way attack drones, three anti-ship ballistic missiles, and two land attack cruise missiles. The series of engagements occurred over a 10-hour period starting at 6:30 AM local time. Not one of the weapons hit its mark.

The fact that Super Hornets scored kills is a new development. They would constitute just the second (and possibly more) aerial kill by a F/A-18E/F, the first being an Su-22 over Syria in 2017. While the Israeli Air Force has shot down Houthi drones since October 7th (and apparently did so again today, as seen in the tweet below), and it's possible Saudi Arabia, which has a long history of air-to-air kills on drones emanating from Yemen, may have as well, U.S. fighters have not. The employment of Super Hornets in the air defense role isn't that surprising though, as the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (Ike) is currently loitering in the Gulf of Aden. This body of water is separated from the Red Sea by the narrow and tumultous Bab el-Madeb Strait.
Click the link for the rest of the story.

An update: 
With the recent spate of attacks on commercial shipping now extending far out from the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, the Indian Navy has announced the deployment of warships and maritime patrol aircraft to “maintain a deterrent presence” out into the Arabian Sea.

The move comes after a suspected drone attack on the tanker M/V Chem Pluto about 120 miles off the Indian coast over the weekend, which Washington has now blamed squarely on Iran. The damaged ship is now pier side in Mumbai. You can read our coverage of that incident here.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/india-enhances-naval-posture-red-sea-attacks-continue

 

~Bang

Edited December 28, 2023 by Bang

[Wildbunny]

Year this period feels like we're gonna merge those isreali and Ukrainian thread altogether.

 

Which feels scary...

[The 12th Commandment]

13 minutes ago, Wildbunny said:

Year this period feels like we're gonna merge those isreali and Ukrainian thread altogether.

 

Which feels scary...

And Taiwan is cued up to be added to the mix.  I really hope smarter heads prevail.  

[Bang]

It's all connected, one is using the others who are using others. But we are the target. Stretch us thin, then hit.

 

~Bang
 

 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

7 hours ago, Wildbunny said:

Year this period feels like we're gonna merge those isreali and Ukrainian thread altogether.

 

Which feels scary...

What’s going on falls right into the sleepy joe narrative. Wasps buzzing all around us and we just waiting around to get stung. It puts Biden in a tough situation. Right now it’s a lot of buzzing. Swing around and you’ll start a swarm/sting attack.

 

what’s going on right now isn’t really hurting is strategically and isn’t killing our troops (yet). Even if it feels wrong to just sit and wait it is probably the best option.  Of course the hawks on the right will say we should teach Iran a lesson. Show strength. But then, they aren’t the ones who have to pay for that bravado. 
 

it feels right but it is wrong. Biden continuously finds himself in this kind of scenario. Where he is doing the right thing but it doesn’t feel like it. 

[Destino]

7 hours ago, Bang said:

It's all connected, one is using the others who are using others. But we are the target. Stretch us thin, then hit.

 

~Bang

Don’t sell them short they’re also convincing every fringe group in the country that our enemies are actually the good ones. 
 

[TheGreatBuzz]

Important to not lose perspective.

 

 

 

 

[EmirOfShmo]

Language

Three Houthi boats got smoked by US Navy choppers. The Houthi boat crews are now an impromptu smorgasbord for fish and crustaceans. They fired on the choppers and discovered quickly that was most unwise

 

Spoiler

 

 

[Wildbunny]

2 hours ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

Important to not lose perspective.

 

 

There was a poll a week or two in France, and something like 30% of the muslims living in France are OK with what Hamas did on October the 7th...

 

Don't look any further why so many of our leaders are scared about backing up Israel a bit more...

 

Problem is, if you look the other way, problems aren't solved and just grow bigger.

[Barry.Randolphe]

4 hours ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

Important to not lose perspective.

 

 

 

 

 

Can we not post unverified claims (especially from questionable sources https://visegradinsight.eu/polish-misinformation-using-a-hungarian-recipe-the-curious-case-of-visegrad-24/) that further inflame tensions/prolong the ongoing genocide?

[TheGreatBuzz]

52 minutes ago, Barry.Randolphe said:

 

Can we not post unverified claims (especially from questionable sources https://visegradinsight.eu/polish-misinformation-using-a-hungarian-recipe-the-curious-case-of-visegrad-24/) that further inflame tensions/prolong the ongoing genocide?

 

Hamas has not earned the benefit of any doubt. 

[Fergasun]

I don't like us getting more directly involved in these conflicts.  Yet, other countries either can't project force or don't have the domestic resolve to stand up or some other reason don't seem to care about global tade. 

 

At the same time, Islamic terrorists have been running amuck in Northern and Western Africa, committing similar atrocities as Hamas on 10/7 and we don't jump in there either. 

 

I understand how we are such a great ally to the state of Israel.  But, as time has gone on and our country has grown more secular since 1948, some of the more religiously rooted reasons for our support don't exist anymore.  I am not sure I have heard full throated "God's promise lands belongs to the Jewish people according to the Bible" articulated much in this recent conflict.  This is somewhat awkward.  Also, some of the cultural bias - we've always supported Israel - reasons are being questioned.  

 

I don't know that Iran has as much control over thr Houthis as our media portrays it.  Iran very much seems to know what is at stake... which is why think their attacks seem to be symboloc in nature. I don't think they want this expand either.  Who has more to lose by picking a direct fight with America?  

 

But if I had to choose between funding Ukraine or Israel (giving more) -- and we don't necessarily need to choose, I am funding Ukraine.  

[Wildbunny]

42 minutes ago, Fergasun said:

Yet, other countries either can't project force or don't have the domestic resolve to stand up or some other reason don't seem to care about global tade. 

Most "other countries", and by that I mean Europe,mostly, simply got rid of their armies decades ago due to UE and economic trades and stuff. because army is kinda costly and all of us counted on the USA to get the job done. (I could debate on how you played a role in that too because it served your interest in selling weapons and such to those countries, that aren't developping much nowdays, but that's another subject).

 

It's a fact that we as a whole thought war would never happen again because of world economy. That everybody would come to reason and not go to war with X or Y...

 

Now it's just exploding in our faces, Ukraine seems to just be the begining and we aren't getting ready for it anyway....

 

42 minutes ago, Fergasun said:

But if I had to choose between funding Ukraine or Israel (giving more) -- and we don't necessarily need to choose, I am funding Ukraine.

As Batman said facing Enigma in Batman Forever deciding between chosing saving Robin or his girlfriend:

"I had to save them both".

 

We should have the same goal here. We have to help them both. Chosing is not an option.

 

Edit:

Furthermore, if us democracies started sending a signal that we're gearing up for wars and are not gonna tolerate this **** anymore would probably send some of those wannabe dictators to bed for some time, because most of them know they don't stand a chance...

Edited December 31, 2023 by Wildbunny

[PeterMP]

Let's be realistic.  Between Ukraine and Israel only one actually needs saving.  The other case is just a matter of how much is it going to cost them to do what they want vs. cost us. 

 

Hamas is not close to capable of destroying Israel.  Israel wants to do what they want to do and wants us to pay (at least a good chunk of) the bill.  Framing our increase in support of Israel as "saving" Israel is an attempt to badly misframe the discussion.

 

(Where long term, I doubt what they are doing is actually going to be very effective.)

 

Edited December 31, 2023 by PeterMP

[Barry.Randolphe]

2 hours ago, PeterMP said:

Let's be realistic.  Between Ukraine and Israel only one actually needs saving.  The other case is just a matter of how much is it going to cost them to do what they want vs. cost us. 

 

Hamas is not close to capable of destroying Israel.  Israel wants to do what they want to do and wants us to pay (at least a good chunk of) the bill.  Framing our increase in support of Israel as "saving" Israel is an attempt to badly misframe the discussion.

 

(Where long term, I doubt what they are doing is actually going to be very effective.)

 

 

This.

 

My tax dollars don't need to continue to go fund bombing women and babies on a witch hunt to find these supposed elaborate command centers in a hospitals, etc (sound like Afghanistan's search for Bin Laden anyone?). Continuing to fund that genocide is doing real damage to our image abroad....and good luck preventing extremism when you're literally giving people with their backs against a wall in an open air prison ammunition to see Hamas as the good guys after they watched entire generations of their families get wiped out with indiscriminate bombing.

 

Even the Pope is condemning and has tapped danced around calling what Israel is doing genocide. How often does that happen? You all can keep pretending this is a Muslim vs Jew issue - it's not. It's ethnic cleansing and a land grab.

 

Quote

https://www.reuters.com/world/pope-francis-deplores-israeli-killings-civilians-gaza-church-2023-12-17/

Pope Francis deplores Israeli killings of civilians in Gaza church

VATICAN CITY, Dec 17 (Reuters) - Pope Francis on Sunday again suggested Israel was using "terrorism" tactics in Gaza, deploring the reported killing by the Israeli military of two Christian women who had taken refuge in a church complex.

At his weekly blessing, Francis referred to a statement about an incident on Saturday by the Latin Patriarchate of Jerusalem, the Catholic authority in the Holy Land.

 

The Patriarchate said an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) "sniper" killed the two women, whom the pope named as Nahida Khalil Anton and her daughter Samar, as they walked to a convent of nuns in the compound of the Holy Family Parish.

The Patriarchate statement said seven other people were shot and wounded as they tried to protect others.

 

"I continue to receive very grave and painful news from Gaza," Francis said. "Unarmed civilians are the objects of bombings and shootings. And this happened even inside the Holy Family parish complex, where there are no terrorists, but families, children, people who are sick or disabled, nuns."

 

Francis said they were killed by "snipers" and also referred to the Patriarchate's statement that a convent of nuns of the order founded by Mother Teresa was damaged by Israeli tank fire.

"Some would say 'It is war. It is terrorism.' Yes, it is war. It is terrorism," he said.

 

An Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesperson said the incident was still under review and had no immediate comment on the pope's words.

The Israeli military said that church representatives had contacted it early on Saturday regarding explosions in the area but did not report any casualties in the church complex.

 

"The IDF only targets terrorists and terror infrastructure and does not target civilians, no matter their religion," the military said.

The pope's remarks on Sunday marked the second time in less than a month that he used the word "terrorism" while speaking of events in Gaza.

 

On Nov. 22, after meeting separately with Israeli relatives of hostages held by Hamas and with Palestinians who have family in Gaza, he said: "This is what wars do. But here we have gone beyond wars. This is not war. This is terrorism."

 

Later that day, a messy dispute broke out over whether he used the word "genocide" to describe events in Gaza, with Palestinians who met him insisting that he did and the Vatican saying he did not.

 

Jewish groups criticised the pope for last month's "terrorism" comments.

 

Israel stepped up its bombardment of Gaza overnight and into Sunday, killing at least 40 people, Palestinians said, after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu argued the only way to secure the release of hostages was intense military pressure on Hamas.

 

[China]

He just deplores those killings?  As head of a Christian church you’d think he’d deplore all killings.  But history shows that the Catholic Church hasn’t always been averse to bloodshed.

 

Edited January 1 by China

[Renegade7]

I don't get this thread @Bang

 

There's multiple different conflicts and threads specific to them scattered around the Tailgate.  Have been for years, will be going forward.

 

Why a catch all likes it building up to something?

 

World War 1 was very unique in its buildup, World War 2 case be made was a continuation slash revenge tour for how World War 1 ended.

 

We didn't have nukes then or globalization of interconnected economies as we have today.

 

For context:

 

Coming into this century we collecting enough data to suggest that deaths as a ratio to total population from armed conflicts was spiraling downwards going into 2000 to a place not seen in nearly 600 hears.

 

 

 

https://www.vox.com/2015/6/23/8832311/war-casualties-600-years

 

Yes, 2023 is the highest number of deaths via conflict of any year so far this century:

 

https://www.dw.com/en/global-conflicts-death-toll-at-highest-in-21st-century/a-66047287

 

Same time that was dominated by Ukraine and Ethiopia...one of which has all but ended their Civil War while the other Putin is throwing out signs he's serious about a cease fire.

 

 

Look, I know sometimes I come across as an optimist, but sometimes I have to in order to keep my anxiety and depression from getting the best of me.  I do that primarily through arming myself with facts to make sure what I'm really dealing with, because there's more then enough folks in media that have no problem feeding this as opposed to clarifying this.  I won't speak to how much I pray to mKe sense of the rest because I know not everyone does and that's OT.

 

Perception is reality...we should not underestimate the ability to speak things into existence when we know words have power.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesfarrell/2023/12/29/homicides-see-historic-decline-in-2023-despite-perceptions-that-crime-is-on-the-rise/?sh=5188b10cd76e

Edited January 1 by Renegade7

[Bang]

I figured this might be a spot to discuss correlations to the US for all of it.

Our military is now acting under the notion that we are in the first stages of conflict with China, and they firmly expect war by 2027 if not sooner. I work with these folks, and these are the words being used by leadership right now. t isn't a secret. The lead ups to past wars are much clearer in the light of history, and the lead up to what is happening now is becoming quite clear as well.

First up is China, who has been ramping up military production madly in the last five years. They are cranking out warships at an alarming rate. Their primary goal is Taiwan, it's no secret, they say it's theirs and will take it back. Their incursion games happen almost daily. They routinely muster flights of fighters and troop carriers and send them directly on attack vectors toward Taiwan, scrambling defense forces. They launch invasion ships filled with soldiers and send them toward Taiwan, and like the jets, turn back at the last second. 
They have been increasingly belligerent toward our ships and aircraft. They have done dangerous things, like flying fighter jets directly across the nose of American aircraft, within a few dozen yards. Sailing warships dangerously close. In other things they have been expanding what they think is their territory by using warships to chase off fishing boats that are operating in traditional fishing waters.
We routinely transit the South China sea to show we will defend 'free and open trade routes'. We don't shy from the games of chicken that are going on. Australia feels war is inevitable, and feel as if they are directly under the gun. 
And on top of that, a relatively new China is now interested in projecting power globally. Used to be they were insular, wanting only what they think is traditionally theirs. Now they have built long range warships, they have started to establish bases in other parts of the world. Their success with that has been up or down. They built a pier in Djbouti that can handle an aircraft carrier, and within six months it was discovered to be loaded with spy gear and it is in a state of flux right now. Building piers and facilities in middle east ports is a priority of theirs, and thankfully, the process is slow. But if they get warships into the middle east nothing good can come of it.
They are building hypersonic missiles that can be virtually undetectable, and can easily hit us.
Drone armadas, not only for themselves, but they are selling them around the world.
You see this somewhat new commercial for the Marines, they go out in the field and zap down all these drones. China have developed fleets of trucks that can launch hundreds of these things from pretty much anywhere. Some are autonomous, and they are selling them worldwide. 
 

They are 100% winning the cyber war. Our military cyber forces have literally been at war for years, the attempts to penetrate are daily, and have been for a long time. But it s a tpoiugh fight, as in most cyber security it is largely reactive.. it is hard to anticipate the next tech. Our best defense is constant monitoring and defending, which we do.
but it also isn't infallible. A few years ago a fuel pipeline in Virginia (?) was shut down with a cyber attack, and it affected a panic along the east coast. A cyber attack group working out of and with the blessing of Russia sell things like this, and they proved they could do something as severe as that. They have been working on that ever since.. it's a HUGE first strike capability that can cause massive amounts of damage without firing a shot.
We laugh about Tik Tok. they don't. All of these things... as a people we are ignorant, stupid, over-confident and self-absorbed. And our misuse of social media is a goldmine of intel. People don't think about how this is done and so they never see their own part in it, but it's a matter of assembling billions of pieces of info into pictures that reveal something to them. Almost all of the info is useless, but not everything, and many things we never consider. 
We take a picture of our night in a restaurant and post it to facebook, but we don't know who is in the picture, like that guy back there who looks like no one special, but is a person of interest in a sensitive position at the Pentagon, and now they know he's there, when he's there and that he goes there. It feeds into the puzzle.
It sounds ridiculous, but we (especially those of us in the DC area) need to consider this.

 

China is the primary puppeteer. A role that used to be the Soviets. But Russia is now theirs, economically and reliant on Chinese weapon tech. 
While China likely did not order Putin to attack Ukraine, they certainly are pleased with the result. We have poured loads of money and material in. The material depletes our stocks.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/17/politics/us-weapon-stocks-ukraine/index.html
and as is shown in that article, our own homegrown traitors are aiding in this effort by denying resupply. The military has been under attack by the GOP, and while some questions need answering, NOTHING the GOP does is done in good faith, or for the good of our country. Delay and disruption tactics aren't even hidden, nor is the desire to poison our minds. (Military recruiting is unbelievably low, and when conflict does happen, the potential of a draft is very real. Our resident dividers would LOVE to see that.) The Ukraine war has provided yet another wedge to drive. (Russia also becomes more dependent on China as they get their ass kicked around.)

Chinese money infects our political system, and while we love to think a lot of these GOP have Russia guiding them, ultimately it is China. (Unless we doubt that at least a huge part of the GOP are not bought and paid for.) Tommy Tuberville suddenly takes a radical stance that significantly damages our command structure as all of this other stuff is happening. GOP congress-people attack leadership, attack in their media outlets, drive wedges. I mentioned recruiting, think this isn't connected? 
None of this is coincidental. The GOP is part of the "axis", even if many of them don't know it. Boebert, Jordan and assorted idiots are pawns.

Does that sound paranoid?
I don't think so. Things that would have sounded paranoid about the radical right of our country ten years ago have come to be very real. 
 

Houthi rebels now firing off all these drones. 
Their goal of capturing Yemen is likely a pipe dream, but it is easily used by the "axis" to disrupt shipping as much as possible through the Red Sea and Suez canal. Disrupt economies, and tie up military resources.
They do this under the direction (and supply) of Iran, who takes their marching orders from Russia, who take their marching orders from China. Last week an Indian ship was attacked and the US officially leveled the finger at Iran. Which doesn't seem like much and hardly new, except we are now officially making warlike public declarations.

A US carrier group is now engaged in picking at these fleas as shown in the article leading off this thread.

If they can do it. the Chinese / Russian / Iran chain will get us further involved with these pests, and no matter what we do, if we escalate like maybe invade Houthi compounds in Yemen, it is a propaganda win, and puts pressure on us even further, because if Biden is president when we do anything we do, the powerful GOP propaganda network goes on the attack, further distracting and dividing us.

On cue, North Korea rattles the nuclear sabers again, which is getting to be a Christmas tradition. And as much as it's easy to ignore them, they DO have this capability, and likely CAN be pushed into using it as a proxy. In the last several months most of the news out of NK that has been worth paying attention to are not their usual political nonsense, but population problems, desperation even more desperate than usual. This can be used.

And all of it is aimed at us, and NATO. 

 

I think it is time we do prepare for the potential for the 3rd world war in a realistic way.

I know i'm a bit of an alarmist on these pages, but I also think the things I ring alarms about are real. I may not be the most articulate in presenting this, I tend to be a bit scattered.

But all of this is out there from plenty of reputable sources, and seeing the big picture coming together doesn't seem so difficult to me, nor does it seem paranoid.
And that is why this thread. I learn a lot from all of you, and if we view these things from these angles in a concentrated place, we/ I may see it all clearer.

 

If it is redundant, I don't mind if mods delete it. I did consider this before making it. I even started to write a message to Jumbo to see what he thought, but then i said "You know what? **** him." 😁

 

Happy new year!
 

 

~Bang

Edited January 1 by Bang

[Larry]

28 minutes ago, Bang said:

While China likely did not order Putin to attack Ukraine, they certainly are pleased with the result. We have poured loads of money and material in. The material depletes our stocks.

 

I'm not worried a lot about us running out of weapons. 

 

I confess, I am worried that the Ukraine war is giving them a ****load of Intel.  Both in terms of tech, and how to effectively use it. 

[Renegade7]

@Bang

 

You raise some good points, and being in federal cyber you don't have to sell me know the current state of affairs.

 

Having said that, I and others don't see China's economic model as substainable.  Giving loans for infrastructure to folks they know can't pay it back and all these empty cities and highways to prop up their own economy...that bill comes due eventually.

 

Time that with their demographic time bomb from the ashes of their one child policy, I'm more concerned on them lashing out to take Taiwain while they can versus truly moving past us as thr superior superpower.

 

I look at the situation in the middle east through the scope of major powers preferring not to fight each other directly as a sign they really don't want to, and that's come out in regards to how does Iran prevent Hamas getting pushed put into the Mediterranean.

 

I'll be back, but I see China as the one country that really isnt against going toe to toe with us directly and the rest banking on too much going on at the same time.  The need to pick battles in regards to leading to potentially larger one ones and watching at our Allies get serious aboutnincressing their military spending, like Germany and Japan are paramount here.

 

I still want to be optimistic we can collective keep the top on this pot...but with climate change accelerating, I'm not sure how the conversation in priorities will change.  It should be our collective survival, but we don't have a pointable track record of when that's on the line outside maybe COVID.

Edited January 1 by Renegade7

[Larry]

15 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

I still want to be optimistic we can collective keep the top on this pot...but with climate change accelerating, I'm not sure how the conversation in priorities will change.  It should be our collective survival, but we don't have a pointable track record of when that's on the line outside maybe COVID

 

You're listing COVID as the high point for our nation responding to a crisis?  

[Renegade7]

16 minutes ago, Larry said:

 

You're listing COVID as the high point for our nation responding to a crisis?  

 

I intentionally deleted positive, it's only track record we have, good or bad...

 

Other parts of the world did much better then us, the vaccines we made did come out in record time.  So not all bad, overall I'd say we dodged a bullet more then passed that test.

Edited January 1 by Renegade7

[PeterMP]

The military is looking for the next thing to keep their funding up.  It is the nature of any organization, especially government organizations.  Russia, Iraq, Iran, Al Qeada are no longer significant military threats that can be used to justify significant military funding.  When all you have is a hammer everything looks like a nail and you start arguing that everything should be treated like a nail to justify keeping your hammer.

 

China is natural resource poor.  While they are a little better off with the rising importance of rare earth elements they still aren't in a good situation.  The idea of China being a true destabilizing force in the ME is laughable.  They have the same inherent interest in to keep oil flowing as we (and really our European allies do.  At purely a competitive economic stand point instability in the ME likely favors us over China and much of the rest of the world).  They've also embraced and economic and political system that long term will lose.

 

In terms of money/economics, we're both sort of stuck in the same place and stuck on a merry go round.  They need US dollars and US money to prop up their economy/government spending.  We need them to keep buying our debt and supplying us with cheap goods to keep our economy propped up.  But with ideas like MMT coming to the surface, there is a much better chance we can step off of the merry go round with minimal damage than they can.

 

(How often Americans/westerners will talk about how great democracy and capitalism are but then run around worrying about some other political/economic system passing them by and taking over the world truly astounds me.  If you believe in our system, then the obvious conclusion is if you just let time take its course the other system will lose.  It is like many people don't really believe in capitalism and democracy and somehow think collective/authoritarian based regimes are better.)

 

It is clear that much of their supposed economic growth over the last few decades was fraudulent, they have huge issues with things like ethics in their science, their population demographics don't look good, and they aren't a country that's likely to embrace immigration or be embraced by immigrants.  They've likely reached their peak as a world power.

 

People talking about WWIII makes no sense.  Who is going to be fighting in this war?  China (who has yet to try and actually take Taiwan) and who?  Russia who can't successfully invade their neighbor that has no real military history?  Iran?  What are they doing in WWIII?  Lobbing missiles at Israel?

 

There are 3 relevant concerns with China (and really we have the same issues with Russia)

 

1.  That they will do something stupid and desperate (invade Taiwan) as it becomes clear they will never really achieve true super power status (and won't be able to do things like retake Taiwan unless we just completely fold and let them) and that somehow will escalate to the use of nuclear weapons.

 

2.  That our allies are going through the same demographic issues and also aren't overly open to immigration and that in general creates power imbalance issues in the region (with respect to Russia this isn't as much of an issue towards Europe because Europe has been more open to immigrants and is more attractive to immigrants but certainly with respect to Asia it is an issue).

 

3.  There is the issue of cybersecurity and our reliance on technology to do basic things like deliver energy and for our military.  I suspect none of us really now where we are situated on that front.  While they've clearly been able to do somethings, we don't have a good understanding of what we can do vs. what they can do.  And how far we've penetrated their systems.  The fact that they closed down a pipe line isn't something I'm overly worried about, especially because at some level it is likely useful to allow them to have some successes to see what their capabilities are.  I'm not worried about it in terms of them "beating" us, but in terms of doing a lot of damage as they also diminish in power.

 

(We need to acknowledge that China has a role to play in the world as one of the largest and most populous countries in the world and that they have a long and impressive history.  That the we as a human population and global society wouldn't be where we are today without China, the Chinese, and their contributions.  That they should be considered a great country and treated with a level of respect.

 

While we slowly let the economics of the situation and population demographics do the work of whittling away their power and global importance until their time has passed and they've been surpassed by countries like India.)

Edited January 1 by PeterMP

[PeterMP]

12 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

Coming into this century we collecting enough data to suggest that deaths as a ratio to total population from armed conflicts was spiraling downwards going into 2000 to a place not seen in nearly 600 hears.

 

 

I will point out that I'm not a big fan of this type of thinking.  The past is often not a good predictor of the future (past performance is not indicative of future performance).

 

It seems likely to me eventually there will be the use of a significant nuclear weapon, and then all of those numbers will change really quickly.

[Larry]

1 hour ago, PeterMP said:

The military is looking for the next thing to keep their funding up.  It is the nature of any organization, especially government organizations.  Russia, Iraq, Iran, Al Qeada are no longer significant military threats that can be used to justify significant military funding.  When all you have is a hammer everything looks like a nail and you start arguing that everything should be treated like a nail to justify keeping your hammer.

 

Just pointing out another possible explanation. 

 

The Pentagon's job is to be prepared, in advance, for anything that might happen. 

 

And it's really hard to be certain that something can't happen. 

 

And, we have to be prepared for it in advance. Being a dictatorship gives China the ability to mobilize quickly. For example, I understand that when Covid hit, Beijing built two hospitals of 5,000 beds each, in 4 weeks. And staffed them, by drafting medical personnel from elsewhere.