2024 NFL Draft Position/Tracker - Final Pick #2

[Riggo#44]

[JamesMadisonSkins]

I just ran through the playoff predictor machine thing and got the following for draft picks/final records. You can go through each game with a fine-tooth comb but I tried to go with my gut:

1. Arizona (2-15)

2. New England (3-14)

3. Chicago via Carolina (3-14)

4. NY Jets (5-12)

5. Washington (5-12)

6. Chicago (5-12)

7. NY Giants (5-12)

8. Tennessee (5-12)

9. LV Raiders (6-11)

10. Minnesota (6-11)

11. Tampa Bay (6-11)

12. LA Chargers (7-10)

 

I think the "machine" ranks each conference accurately, although it's hard to tell who would have the draft pick tie-break between conferences. Ex, does NE or CAR pick 2nd ... do the Jets or Commanders pick 4th. Do Giants or Titans pick 7th, etc. I put the Jets at 4th over WAS since I have that being the Commanders lone win, but I'm pretty sure the draft pick tie-break is SOS not H2H

If anyone knows of a similar simulator that ranks teams based on SOS across conferences 1-32 that would be super helpful. 

 

Edited November 29, 2023 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Skinsinparadise]

some other picks as the Brugler top 5

 

2. Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

Another embattled quarterback under an organizational microscope: Kyler Murray, as he returns from last season’s injury. Neither Arizona general manager Monti Ossenfort nor head coach Jonathan Gannon drafted Murray or signed him to his lucrative extension, which creates plenty of unknowns for this franchise. But we do know that a trade of Murray is unlikely — who’d trade for that contract? — and cutting him would be easier to stomach a year from now.

In this scenario, I have them keeping Murray (and his hefty contract) for at least one more season.

Last year, the Cardinals drafted an Ohio State offensive tackle in the top 10, and they go back to Columbus for one of the best wide receiver prospects of the last few decades. This pick would come on the 20-year anniversary of Arizona selecting Larry Fitzgerald at No. 3 in 2004, which is interesting because Harrison reminds me of a leaner version of Fitzgerald.

3. New England Patriots: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

With their quarterback situation in shambles, the Patriots have a bottom-five offense.

In his 24 years as head coach in New England, Bill Belichick has never drafted in the top five, but this season is certainly trending in that direction. That’s the bad news. The good news? This is a great draft for a quarterback-needy team to own an early pick. Maye is a young player and not without his faults, but he has

4. Chicago Bears: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

When you draft in the top five, the goal is to find an organizational cornerstone that also addresses a pressing need. This class offers a pair of outstanding offensive tackles who are not only blue-chip prospects but would also give Chicago a much-needed upgrade at a key position.

A standout pass protector and run blocker, Alt has a massive body with coordinated feet and rare recovery skills, which will have him ready to start as a 21-year-old rookie.

 

 

 

 

Edited November 29, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Koolblue13]

As long as we're ahead of the NYG, so we can trade our pick to someone else for the QB they want.

[Warhead36]

2 hours ago, Commander Adama said:

I think the whole Chase Young thing did this to us all.

That and Dwayne Haskins(RIP)...

[Skinsinparadise]

32 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

As long as we're ahead of the NYG, so we can trade our pick to someone else for the QB they want.

 

Agree.  Jaylen Daniels is #7 in Dane's mock so as i suspected he's rising.  If he keeps on this track he's likely going top 4.  I also don't buy the Cards go for Harrison over Drake Maye.

[The Consigliere]

I think you're right about Harrison and the QB's, SIP. The most likely scenario will be the QB's go 1-2, and then the debate over whether to trade up to 3 to take a QB or whether NE just grabs a QB becomes a question. I don't think Billichek would take a WR there, he'd either trade down or go QB (and considering there are another 2-3 QB's projected to go round 1, I'd expect him to move down with a team that wants a QB, OT, or Harrison Jr or even an edge. If the pats pick 3rd, a lot will turn on that as we all know, the question is whether the pats will trade down or go QB, to me, I tend to think they'd trade down unless they really love a QB. 

[Skinsinparadise]

5 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

I think you're right about Harrison and the QB's, SIP. The most likely scenario will be the QB's go 1-2, and then the debate over whether to trade up to 3 to take a QB or whether NE just grabs a QB becomes a question. I don't think Billichek would take a WR there, he'd either trade down or go QB (and considering there are another 2-3 QB's projected to go round 1, I'd expect him to move down with a team that wants a QB, OT, or Harrison Jr or even an edge. If the pats pick 3rd, a lot will turn on that as we all know, the question is whether the pats will trade down or go QB, to me, I tend to think they'd trade down unless they really love a QB. 

 

I don't think it will be Belichick making the call for NE, he's likely gone.  I figure a new regime would likely want a QB.  Will see.

 

I think 50-50 Marvin Harrison Jr, will be there at 4.  

Edited November 29, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[MartinC]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I don't think it will be Belichick making the call.  I figure new regime would likely want a QB.  Will see.

 

I think 50-50 Marvin Harrison Jr, will be there at 4.  

 

I think we end up at #5. I dont think Harrison makes it to #5. But we should have our pick of the OTs.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Just now, MartinC said:

 

I think we end up at #5. I dont think Harrison makes it to #5. But we should have our pick of the OTs.

 

If we are picking at #4 there is a real chance we'll be choosing between Marvin Harrison, the top OT, or trading down. If we are at #4 and Marvin Harrison is gone, then I suspect that #4 pick will be prime trade-up target for any team wanting a QB. The question then becomes, do we trade off the Top OT on the board for a king's ransom in draft picks?

 

I also do not expect that we'll be picking at #4. There are two "winnable" games left on our schedule ... Jets and Rams. I don't expect we win both, but would be surprised if we didn't win 1. Given the number of teams currently hovering at 4 wins, I have a hard time seeing a 5-12 record getting us a pick higher than #5/#6. 

[Skinsinparadise]

4 minutes ago, MartinC said:

 

I think we end up at #5. I dont think Harrison makes it to #5. But we should have our pick of the OTs.

 

I don't think he makes it to 5 either but 50-50 he's there at 4.

 

I think we have a shot at 4, if we lose out I think its a borderline lock because I think the Bears schedule is weaker and they should take at least 1 if not 2.  Giants worry me some but if i understand they got the stronger strength of schedule including going forward because they got the Eagles twice.

Edited November 29, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[MartinC]

4 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

 If we are at #4 and Marvin Harrison is gone, then I suspect that #4 pick will be prime trade-up target for any team wanting a QB. The question then becomes, do we trade off the Top OT on the board for a king's ransom in draft picks?

 

Everything has a price but we lack real all pro calibre talent. Given a chance to draft someone like Harrison I would pick him and look to add O'line in rounds 2 or 3. Its a deep OT class there will likely be people available top of the 2nd who can help us.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

29 minutes ago, MartinC said:

 

Everything has a price but we lack real all pro calibre talent. Given a chance to draft someone like Harrison I would pick him and look to add O'line in rounds 2 or 3. Its a deep OT class there will likely be people available top of the 2nd who can help us.

 

Inclined to agree here. If we go into the draft with our same stable of WRs (less Curtis Samuel, assuming he's gone) WR will be a need. If we use some of our $$ in FA to sign a premier OT or OL I do think it opens things up more to go elsewhere with that 1st pick. 

 

IF we leapfrog the Bears and end up picking #4 we are really sitting in the driver's seat .... QBs either go 1-2-3 or Harrison goes top 3 and Jayden Daniels is there at #4 and another team comes calling. In a perfect world, that team is someone like the Raiders or Titans picking in the Top 8... in which case we could still get a premier OT after a trade-down

[method man]

1 hour ago, MartinC said:

 

Everything has a price but we lack real all pro calibre talent. Given a chance to draft someone like Harrison I would pick him and look to add O'line in rounds 2 or 3. Its a deep OT class there will likely be people available top of the 2nd who can help us.

 

Yep or worst case we have the assets to move into the mid to late 1st to guarantee it

[philibusters]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I don't think he makes it to 5 either but 50-50 he's there at 4.

 

I think we have a shot at 4, if we lose out I think its a borderline lock because I think the Bears schedule is weaker and they should take at least 1 if not 2.  Giants worry me some but if i understand they got the stronger strength of schedule including going forward because they got the Eagles twice.

 

The tiebreaker with NY is a 50-50 proposition.  Denver going on a winning streak has made us vulnerable on that front.  We have 12 of the same games as the Giants, then the 2 against each other, which means there are only 3 real differences.  They are 1) we played the Bronocos, they played the Raiders.  That favors them as Raiders are 5-7 and Bronocos 6-5 2) We played the Bears and they played the Packers.  That favors us as the Packers are 5-6 and the Bears 4-8. 3) We played the Falcons and they play the Saints.  That is currently a draw as both teams are 5-6.  Right now, they 

[kingdaddy]

2 hours ago, MartinC said:

 

I think we end up at #5. I dont think Harrison makes it to #5. But we should have our pick of the OTs.

I agree with you but what if someone in the top 4 (Bears?) goes with one of the tackles????? Or, what if the Bears trade back to someone who wants a QB? #4 is the place to be!!!

[MartinC]

10 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

I agree with you but what if someone in the top 4 (Bears?) goes with one of the tackles????? Or, what if the Bears trade back to someone who wants a QB? #4 is the place to be!!!

 

If one of the OTs go top 4 someone falls - a QB or Harrison likely. If its Harrison I pick him, if its a QB I field calls for a trade back.

[Warhead36]

#3 is the real sweet spot but is basically impossible to reach unless some of the teams ahead of us go on win streaks. 

[KDawg]

If we’re on the board and MHJ is there I think I’d have a real hard time not taking him and going OL in the second. Maybe twice. 
 

I don’t think he’s going to be there when we pick. And if he’s gone I don’t see anyone I’d take over any of the top 3 tackles. 

[Rex Tomb]

4 minutes ago, KDawg said:

If we’re on the board and MHJ is there I think I’d have a real hard time not taking him and going OL in the second. Maybe twice. 
 

I don’t think he’s going to be there when we pick. And if he’s gone I don’t see anyone I’d take over any of the top 3 tackles. 

Is Joe Alt considered the blue chipper in this tackle class?

[KDawg]

4 minutes ago, Rex Tomb said:

Is Joe Alt considered the blue chipper in this tackle class?

I think he’s the most solid across the board OT in the class but he isn’t a destroyer. Good across the board but not standout anywhere. Olu is probably the best in pass pro and more aggressive. Fuaga is the most dominant. Mims is a mix of the three of them. 

Edited November 29, 2023 by KDawg

[The Consigliere]

I should add, considering the depth of talent this year at WR, We could potentially trade up, or sit tight and probably get a darn good option in early round 2. Sounds like it's a nice draft for both. You aren't gonna get that alpha Jamar Chase type, more than likely in round 3, probably not in round 3, but with a class this deep, guys you are taking 35-55 are probably guys that would normally go in the later 1st in a lot of classes. The depth reminds me of 2020, which was deep beyond 12 guys although plenty missed. The most exciting thing to me is that the guys that are generally in that 3rd-5th zone, are more typical of the #1 in an average class (I'm talking Odunze, Neighbors, Egbuka, Coleman). Any of those guys could evolve into a legit #1 option. The problem is I don't see much of a chance any last to round 2, they all seem like guys that will go between 10-25 other than maybe Egbuka. 

[ExoDus84]

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

#3 is the real sweet spot but is basically impossible to reach unless some of the teams ahead of us go on win streaks. 

 

I feel like the Bears and Patriots could end up with more wins than us, given our schedule. What's more, there's nothing I believe in more than Ron's ability to underperform and underachieve.

 

#3 here we come!

[philibusters]

37 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I think he’s the most solid across the board OT in the class but he isn’t a destroyer. Good across the board but not standout anywhere. Olu is probably the best in pass pro and more aggressive. Fuaga is the most dominant. Mims is a mix of the three of them. 

 

Mims is the physical specimen of the group at 6'7 340 pounds, good length, and good mobility for his size.  But its difficult to say what he is as a player because in 3 years at Georgia including this season he has played a total of 638 snaps including only 231 this season due to injury.  He is the most raw of the group, but he has the physical tools to be an all pro, but his floor could be bust.

[Redskins 2021]

 I cant see us getting into top 3. I think we get 4 and the top OT.