2023 Offseason Mini Camp, OTA’s, Training Camp Discussion Thread: Hallelujah, Josh Harris & Co. Era Edition

[Thinking Skins]

1 hour ago, FootballZombie said:

Charles and our #1 Oline got a TON of reps this preseason playing against other teams 2s and 3s, and to their credit, they looked great 95% of the time doing it. Can't ask for more in that department. 

 

That being said, he and the whole unit looked terrible the two series they actually got to play vs 1s and when it comes to the rest of the tape, a bunch of starters, even bad ones, bullying a bunch of backups does very little to alleviate my concerns w/ this O-line.

 

I have not seen good play from Charles last year or vs quality opponents this year and anything above a human turnstile will be a pleasant surprise for me when the real games start. I'm gonna need him to put some good play on film vs real opponents before I change my opinion on him based on what I have seen in masse.

 

That and he has to stay healthy.

The food info I've got on Charles is that he had a first round grade coming into the draft out of LSU. If he can hold up that will be nice of him and Cosmi anchoring those spots for a while. 

[88Comrade2000]

Surprised there's isn't a thread for Sunday's game yet. At least a prediction thread we do before each game.  This would be separate from the game day thread that the mods post on game day.

[HigSkin]

1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I might have missed a Keim podcast.  I honestly don't remember hearing Logan on Keim's podcast.  I haven't listened to something from Paulsen probably since the start of the second week of camp.  I'll have to go back and find it. I generally don't miss those.  But, I've been busy.  So, might have snuck through the cracks.

 

 

It's a good listen about a lot of things.....

 

 

[MartinC]

2 hours ago, CapsSkins said:

Winning an argument is fatal.

 

Interesting theory. If it ever happens it will be interesting to see if you are right!

 

23 years and counting it’s not happened yet …

[petey hodge]

3 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

If you fall victim to a trap game in THIS game where the stadium is going to be off-the-hook, new ownership present, first game of a new regime?  

 

Then need to fire everybody out of a damn cannon into the Chesapeake Bay from the parking lot and never let them step foot in the Commonwealth of VA, let alone team HQ, ever again.

I dont disagree...  but that is the definition of a Trap Game... just believing the our own hype, and forgetting the part about competing against that other team.

[Dark Acre]

3 hours ago, Thinking Skins said:

The food info I've got on Charles is that he had a first round grade coming into the draft out of LSU. If he can hold up that will be nice of him and Cosmi anchoring those spots for a while. 

I'm telling you all now, get ready for S'iq ("sick") Chuck.  Is Chris Berman still around?  I want to hear him say Sick Chuck.

[FootballZombie]

1 hour ago, petey hodge said:

just believing the our own hype

 

I think it more a belief of what Ariz is than what we are.

 

At the end of the day we are an org that is at least trying to win. I think we are "mid", but we are trying. Ariz is out here doing everything in their conceivable power to lose out.

[Skinsinparadise]

• John Keim, ESPN Staff WriterSep 5, 2023, 06:00 AM ET

ASHBURN, Va., -- Something needed to change. It would need to be more than just swapping one coach for another, or even one system for another. Washington Commanders coach Ron Rivera needed more, his team sputtered down the stretch and the organization needed a jolt.

Enter new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy.

 

Something needed to change at quarterback, too. Washington had a young passer Rivera felt was capable of leading a franchise and giving it a chance to build toward a bright future.

 

 

Enter new starter Sam Howell.

From the outside, it appears Rivera -- who earned the moniker "Riverboat Ron" when coaching with the Carolina Panthers -- has bet his Commanders tenure on an offensive coordinator who, though decorated, has never been a primary play caller, and a fifth-round quarterback with 19 career pass attempts.

“This is a calculated risk. This has been thought out,” Rivera said. “It’s something I felt needed to be done. I wanted a change because I wanted to see us do something different.”

 

Added to the mix: The Commanders have a new owner in Josh Harris, which means everything and everyone in the organization will be scrutinized this season. Rivera, who enters a critical Year 4 in Washington, has posted a 22-27-1 record -- comparing favorably after three years to Joe Gibbs (21-27), Mike Shanahan (21-27) and Jay Gruden (21-26-1) under former owner Dan Snyder.

In his introductory news conference, Harris expressed support for what Rivera and Washington's front office is doing. But what happens beyond 2023 remains an unknown.

 

“I don’t worry about that,” Rivera said of his future. “If we go 8-8-1 this year and he fires me and next year they win the division and 40 of the 53 players we drafted and it’s the same quarterback, I’m vindicated. Send me my Super Bowl ring. That’s the way I look at it. I want us to be right and to see this community have that excitement again.”

 

But the risk was in not making those moves. Rivera knows that his fate in Washington is tied to both those offseason decisions, and that all three men's careers are tied together: Any future head coaching prospects for Bieniemy would be enhanced if Howell succeeds; Howell’s long-term future would be solidified with a strong year; and any success or failure from either or both likely will affects Rivera's standing with the new owner.

 

“It’s a quarterback driven league so you get tied to the hip of a quarterback,” Bieniemy said.

“If I play well it helps [Bieniemy], it helps Ron, it helps his team, it helps everybody,” Howell said. “You could say that about everyone in the building. Winning obviously helps everybody. We all indirectly impact each other's lives.”

 

...Since Bieniemy arrived, Washington has conducted longer practices and had more physical workouts. Players said there was more urgency and running back Antonio Gibson said he was in the best shape of his career due to the faster tempo at practice and the high volume of plays the offense has been able to run.

 

For Rivera, entering his 13th year as a head coach, Bieniemy’s influence has represented a big change that he’s embraced.

“I had to shake it up,” Rivera said. “I’m out of that comfort zone because for 12 years we did the same thing and now I’m changing and adapting and I’m working with EB. What we’ve done is change the outlook. The players get it. The best thing EB said is let’s learn to be comfortable when you’re uncomfortable. It changed the thought process for everybody, me included. It did a lot for me.”

 

https://www.espn.com/blog/washington-commanders/post/_/id/43097/tangled-fates-will-ron-riveras-big-bets-on-eric-bieniemy-sam-howell-go-bust-for-all

 

 

Edited September 5, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

10 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I might have missed a Keim podcast.  I honestly don't remember hearing Logan on Keim's podcast.  I haven't listened to something from Paulsen probably since the start of the second week of camp.  I'll have to go back and find it. I generally don't miss those.  But, I've been busy.  So, might have snuck through the cracks.

 

 

I recapped it a few days ago on this thread.  

 

10 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

Amazingly, mine wasn't a leading questions in any way, I saw it dropped but haven't listened to it (best friend from college came to visit with his family over the holiday weekend, hosted 2 BBQs, family time, etc.), didn't know if I was going to get to it tonight (I didn't, and won't), and wondered if you posted a recap.  

 

I will get to it, but thanks for the recap in your next post.

 

Bram and Keim have been on the same train. Nothing new from them in awhile as to their takes.

 

When you mentioned Keim on with Bram and asking me if I listened to it considering your previous take that these dudes come off more optimistic than I describe about the O line.  And my subsequent response to that here where I transcribed their actual comments -- I thought maybe they backed off some of their pessimism? 

 

Part of that was how heavy handed Logan was on Keim's podcast.  As I pointed out he continues to ramp it up on that unit.  The last podcast took the cake.  So maybe he finally broke Keim down.   But listening to Keim on Bram, it didn't come off that way,  they didn't even talk too much on that topic. 

 

Edited September 5, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

As for the Keim article quoting Ron which i posted.

 

It's ironic that Ron goes to my exact thought or close enough.  8-8-1.   That's his 2nd run of comments that allude to the season not ending up a winning one.  So I am guessing clearly its on his mind that this can be another mediocre season for him.

 

For me, I think 8-9, but its close enough to what Ron said. So maybe me and a slew of others expections might not be that far off in our thoughts about this roster if Ron has a similar record on his mind.  I took Ron's comments as heck if they have a good roster in spite of their record and Harris doesn't have the patience to wait for year 5 then so be it.  It's still a victory to him because we all know he'd do it in season 5. 

 

If he was confident like he was in the off season of year 3 where he expressed in advance that this is their big climb season just like he had in Carolina in season 3.  But no bravado now like he had last offseason.  This time its in year 4, its heck if we go 8-8-1 and he gets fired so be it, he'd stil see it as a victory. That comment is telling to me because that's how in my mind he approached the off season like its another build up season for next year.

 

For me I half agree with his point.  I do think he'd have built a good roster and that's commendable.  But I don't think the dude knows how to finish a roster so the idea that he'd kill it in year 5 I don't buy.  IMO you need someone to finish a roster and knows how to close.   I think the idea that he deserves a SB ring if they win one without him is a bit obnoxious.  It is predicated on some notion that every team needs 5 years to turn around which we all know is nonsense.  And that he's the guy to make that happen in year 5 -- which in my mind i don't think so.

 

But to use a baseball analogy, Ron is a decent setup man, he's a bit slow at it so he's far from killer good but he gets there ultimately but he's not a closer IMO.  If he wants to take credit for being a decent set up man, that's cool with me.  But to presume he's the right guy to close this.  I seriously doubt he has that in him to know how to step on the gas and complete a roster.  But will see.

Edited September 5, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

Some Denver mentions who are up soon.

 

 

Broncos’ offensive line: Sean Payton has an uphill battle in Denver after a tumultuous preseason.

 

The offense struggled under Russell Wilson during two preseason performances. To make matters worse, the wide receivers were hit with a rash of injuries, including losing Tim Patrick for the season. Top wide receiver Jerry Jeudy has been sidelined the past week with a hamstring injury.

There’s also uncertainty on the offensive line with tackle Mike McGlinchey dealing with a knee injury. Upgrading the line was a priority for Payton in the offseason, and Denver signed McGlinchey to a five-year, $87.5 million contract.

 

2. Washington’s defense will end the NFL’s longest shutout-less streak — in Week 1.

Why it’s preposterous: Predicting anything about Week 1 is a recipe for disaster, but I’m prepared for one of these predictions to be proved wrong before halftime of the season opener. For those unaware, Washington’s defense has gone an NFL record 509 regular season games without a shutout — since Sept. 30, 1991, when it recorded the third of three shutouts in a month en route to the franchise’s third Super Bowl title. According to Pro Football Reference, there have been 226 regular season shutouts since then, including a combined 16 by the other three teams in the current NFC East. The Jacksonville Jaguars and Carolina Panthers, who entered the league in 1995, have blanked opponents eight and seven times. There’s even a social media account — @Commanders0 — dedicated to tracking Washington’s streak. The NFL’s last Week 1 shutout was in 2017.

 

Why it could happen: The Cardinals, Washington’s Week 1 opponent, aren’t exactly an offensive juggernaut. After averaging 20 points per game last season, they released star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins in May and will be without quarterback Kyler Murray, who is working his way back from the torn ACL he suffered in December.

[Skinsinparadise]

12 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

 

I will get to it, but thanks for the recap in your next post.

 

Just listened to the new Paulsen podcast with Hoffman

 

While he's your guy as to the O line might be good. He doubles down on that again but wasn't as heavy handed on the point like he was with Keim.

 

He's definitely not your guy when it comes to the idea that the schedule doesn't matter.  He must have said like 8 times or so on that podcast that this schedule is tougher than last year and that won't make the season easy. 

 

He's split in between us as to the record.  You predicted 10-7.  I predicted 8-9.  He went through the games and landed at 9-8.

 

He thinks the key games for them are the Bears, Falcons, Denver.  He can see those games going either way and if they want to be a good team they need to win those.

 

I mentioned this point after listening to Paulsen on Keim which is he came off more concerned about Howell than the O line.   He somewhat doubled down on that again this time.  He wondered if Howell can replicate Wentz-Heinicke's TD-INT ratio.  He thinks he will throw for around 20 TDs.  It's not that he's down on Howell but just expects normal ups and downs for a young QB.

 

Overall he vacillated some about how the season will go in different segments.  He defends the national media's pessimism again about this team -- saying from afar he likely would feel the same way.    He goes up close this team looks better than it does from afar.  But then throws in the disclaimer that when you are close to the team, you are also biased to an extent.  Usually you feel good from within.  And he goes he has no idea how this camp for example is going versus other camps.

 

Even with the O line at one point he goes, I think they can be good but he's not sure.  Or something like that.  Am too lazy to transcribe that one.

 

His optimism including about the O line is driven by how relentless and methodical Bieineimy's practices are and he thinks the O line's unit is coached up well by Wharton

 

Both he and Hoffman think this team hovers around 500 during the season.

 

They seem more concerned by Jonathan Allen's foot than other members in the media.

 

Logan is concerned that the defense will not match last years heights even though its better because of the strength of schedule which includes a better QB lineup.

 

Curtis Samuel will be used more as a gadget player than Gibson.  He doesn't think Gibson is much of a route runner, hence he's not used like SF uses McCaffrey who is a really good route runner.  He seemed to hint that it wouldn't surprise him if neither player is back in 2024, they are both FAs.

 

He thinks Dotson is going to explode.  Big year.  Sounds like bigger season than Terry in his mind.

 

 

Edited September 5, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Voice_of_Reason]

For what it's worth, I think in the NFL, any record that's within 1 on either side is essentially the same record with some component of luck.  

 

A team which finished 8-9 almost certainly could have finished 7-10 or 9-8 just as easily if a few breaks went for them or against them.  They are essentially the same record.  What's the difference?  Possibly a made vs. missed game winning 53 yard FG.  A dropped interception. A missed call.  A made call.  McLaruin catching an underthrown [REDACTED] pass into double coverage for a TD instead of an INT.  

 

I take everybody who's predicting anywhere from 8-9 to 10-7, which is a WHOPPING 2 game swing in the win column, as basically having the same basic view of the team, just some variable in terms of how maybe close games they might win vs. lose.  If we all projected them at 9-8, and one more "unfortunate" thing happened, they end up at 8-9.  If one "fortunate" thing happens, they end up at 10-7.  Quibbling between 8-9 and 10-7, to me, is pointless unless you're walking up to the window to lay down a bet in Vegas.  

 

I would say people if you compare people who are predicting 5-12 to 7-10 to people predicting 11-6 to 13-4, they would have very different views of the team.  

 

From what I can see, almost everybody on this board is grouped somewhere in the middle. 8-9 to 10-7.  However they get there, whether they get there with the schedule game, gut feel, PFF rankings, Vegas odds, whatever.  It's where most people are on this board. I guess 10-7. Would I be SHOCKED if they ended up at 9-8?  Absolutely not.  8-9?  Not really.  I'm sortof taking the high end of the "average" grouping.  Others are taking the lower end of the "average" grouping.  I'm taking the "more fortunate things go right for an average team" view.  Shrug.  I think it's all kindof the same.

 

I also think it's all pointless entertainment. Unless you're putting money on it, it doesn't really matter.  It's just a fun game.  It's why people bet on it.  It's a fun game. 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

For what it's worth, I think in the NFL, any record that's within 1 on either side is essentially the same record with some component of luck.  

 

A team which finished 8-9 almost certainly could have finished 7-10 or 9-8 just as easily if a few breaks went for them or against them.  They are essentially the same record.  What's the difference?  Possibly a made vs. missed game winning 53 yard FG.  A dropped interception. A missed call.  A made call.  McLaruin catching an underthrown [REDACTED] pass into double coverage for a TD instead of an INT.  

 

I take everybody who's predicting anywhere from 8-9 to 10-7, which is a WHOPPING 2 game swing in the win column, as basically having the same basic view of the team, just some variable in terms of how maybe close games they might win vs. lose.  If we all projected them at 9-8, and one more "unfortunate" thing happened, they end up at 8-9.  If one "fortunate" thing happens, they end up at 10-7.  Quibbling between 8-9 and 10-7, to me, is pointless unless you're walking up to the window to lay down a bet in Vegas.  

 

I would say people if you compare people who are predicting 5-12 to 7-10 to people predicting 11-6 to 13-4, they would have very different views of the team.  

 

From what I can see, almost everybody on this board is grouped somewhere in the middle. 8-9 to 10-7.  However they get there, whether they get there with the schedule game, gut feel, PFF rankings, Vegas odds, whatever.  It's where most people are on this board. I guess 10-7. Would I be SHOCKED if they ended up at 9-8?  Absolutely not.  8-9?  Not really.  I'm sortof taking the high end of the "average" grouping.  Others are taking the lower end of the "average" grouping.  I'm taking the "more fortunate things go right for an average team" view.  Shrug.  I think it's all kindof the same.

 

I also think it's all pointless entertainment. Unless you're putting money on it, it doesn't really matter.  It's just a fun game.  It's why people bet on it.  It's a fun game. 

 

Three games over 500.  And one game under 500 doesn't feel like the same thing.  I agree its not a dramatic difference but its different.

 

As far as it matters?  Of course, no prediction matters.  No thought on this board matters.  It's all entertainment.  It's all to talk football, kill some time.  Have some fun.

Edited September 5, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[skinny21]

On 8/31/2023 at 10:55 AM, Koolblue13 said:

I think to start the season the line will look better than last year, for sure. No Heini/Wentz holding it too long, being afraid to leave the pocket, better play calls from EB who understand our limitations. So, I think it'll be better than last year to start, but there are some bully DLs we face and I think some of them are going to completely expose our weaknesses and frustrate the offense to the point of it being completely shut down. I also think it'll get worse as the season goes on and we lose/move guys around.

Got on here to type a separate post and realized I’d meant to respond to this last week…

I actually don’t think we’ll see much of guys moving around.  Up until recently, I was with you in that assumption, but with Stromberg emerging and hearing they like Gates much better at C, I think the only way we see position shifts is if 2 or more guys go down at one spot.  

 

As to the offense getting shut down, I’d be surprised.  And frankly, if it does happen, I think it’ll be more about injuries and Howell’s inexperience than the oline.  I’ve said since the spring that I have more faith in Howell than this oline - I think he’s got far more talent that the oline does.  However, I believe the scheme is going to make a significant difference in making the game easier for the olinemen.  I still think Howell has far more upside, and the scheme is designed to help him, but the nature of the position means his mistakes are likely to be more costly… and a young qb is bound to make a lot of mistakes.  Howell’s shown he learns from his mistakes, and that’s massive, yet we’ll have to see what it looks like when the bullets start flying.  Does he hold the ball too long at times?  Does he hit his hot reads consistently?  Does he turn down easier passes for deeper ones?  Does he take a beating fighting for a 1st down/td?

 

Don’t get me wrong, I have serious concerns about this oline.  This scheme though I believe is such a massive divergence from Turner’s, especially in terms of the stress it takes off the oline and the options it gives the qb.  Chips from backs and TEs, multiple option routes, and quick hitters are some examples, but hearing Logan talk about how the motion makes so much more sense in this offense, how the run blocking is made easier, how the scheme attacks different coverages… that stuff’s big.  On top of it helping the oline/qb, I think it’s going to benefit the runners/pass catchers as well.  This isn’t to say it’s all going to go great of course, I just think the chances of having success (as an offense) are going to go up dramatically.  Oline is still the weak link, but I believe it’s more so going to come down to Howell’s play.  Oline will screw up/be overmatched at times, the defense will disappoint at times, but Howell playing within the scheme (and creating on his own at times of course) will be the top factor for success IMO.

[Simmsy]

We should destroy the Cardinals and Broncos (moreso the former), but I like our chances against Buffalo as well. I think the Bills will shock some people as to how much they will fall off this year. They won't be a bad team, but they won't be high in the win column, that is a game to be won by us. Philly, maybe not week 4, but we can take them at home.

 

Arizona is a trap game, yes they suck, yes they are tanking...but the coaches are tanking...not the players. Expect them to put up a fight in the first qtr before we take command and steam roll them. Payton is already making excuses for a losing season, if we start with two wins followed by two losses, I would still be content with that record. However, no reason why we should'nt be at least 2-2 after week four.

Edited September 5, 2023 by Simmsy

[HigSkin]

 

[HigSkin]

LOL, agree

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

Rivera is being raked some by different radio shows for the ESPN interview.

 

Sheehan nailing him for this one.  Him telling Breer he wished he would have known that Howell was good during the last season.  Now telling Keim the opposite.

 

Never a doubt in my mind’

Rivera named Howell the No. 1 quarterback entering offseason workouts. The Commanders, who fired Turner as OC shortly after the 2022 season, were high on Howell before the 2022 draft. One team source said prior to the draft that, had Washington not traded for Carson Wentz before the start of last season, it would have targeted Howell on Day 2.

Then, after seeing Howell -- whom they selected 144th overall -- improve during practices throughout his rookie year, they hoped for a chance to get him playing time.

“We knew what we thought we had 

 

 

 

Grant and Danny hitting him for this part of it below.  Coming off arrogant.  they go considering many of their star players were drafted by Jay's regime, would he get a ring, too?

 

https://www.espn.com/blog/washington-commanders/post/_/id/43097/tangled-fates-will-ron-riveras-big-bets-on-eric-bieniemy-sam-howell-go-bust-for-all

 

In his introductory news conference, Harris expressed support for what Rivera and Washington's front office is doing. But what happens beyond 2023 remains an unknown.

“I don’t worry about that,” Rivera said of his future. “If we go 8-8-1 this year and he fires me and next year they win the division and 40 of the 53 players we drafted and it’s the same quarterback, I’m vindicated. Send me my Super Bowl ring. That’s the way I look at it. I want us to be right and to see this community have that excitement again.”

 

...“If we’re playing well and we’re right about the quarterback then that’s enough,” he said. “This is my 36th year in football. I’ve been to the Super Bowl so I’ve had all that. If this was about ego then every chance I would remind everyone about what I did. I’m past that. Maybe 10 to 15 years ago I worried about that, but I don’t worry about that now. I want to see this area get the team it deserves to have.”

Edited September 5, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[FootballZombie]

Guh

 

Revisionist history just a couple of days later is another form of coming out and apologizing.

Another symptom of foot in mouth disease.

Feels dirty

 

Maybe if he knew things like wen his team was facing elimination I'd scoff a little less at this.

 

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Three games over 500.  And one game under 500 doesn't feel like the same thing.  I agree its not a dramatic difference but its different.

 

As far as it matters?  Of course, no prediction matters.  No thought on this board matters.  It's all entertainment.  It's all to talk football, kill some time.  Have some fun.

Well...  this is where I've always had a problem with the vernacular "x games over 500" and the way it's applied.  Like this is a decades long gripe of mine.  I get the way people talk about it, it's basically the difference between the record you have to even.  So if you're 10-7, you're 3 games over 500.  What it means is you would have to lose 3 more games to get to 500, which would mean you'd have 20 games. But there aren't 20 games in an NFL season.  I hate the way the math is applied and referenced

 

Because a .500 winning percentage is actually 8-8-1 with the stupid 17 game schedule.

 

So 8-9 is technically .5 games under a .500 winning percentage based on the number of games in an NFL regular season.  

 

And 10-7 is technically 1.5 games over .500 winning percentage based on the number of games in an NFL regular season.

 

And it's STILL just a 2 game difference between them in the win column.  And for that matter, the loss column.  

 

I dunno.  I get why it looks like a big difference.  But if you take "actual .500" in an NFL season being 8-8-1, which is what we were last year, being 1.5 games better than that vs. being .5 games worse is a total of a 2 game swing.  It's just not that much.

 

I get that people don't like to talk about math.  I'll leave it here.  It's been a bugaboo of mine, particularly in baseball, since I think I was in 8th grade and screaming at the radio because the announcers couldn't do basic math. 

 

[NickyJ]

"We knew what we thought had" is what I've been waiting to hear. I'd have been concerned if they didn't know what they thought they had, or if they knew what they didn't think they had. If they didn't know what they didn't think they had, I'd have been downright scared.

 

On a more tangible positive, I'm glad that Ron didn't finish the sentence with "We knew what we thought we had, so we were thrilled when we landed Jacoby this offseason."

 

It feels like Ron has made this offseason a bit more tumultuous than it needed to be. But one day, we'll be able to look back and say that we never knew what we didn't think we didn't have.

Edited September 5, 2023 by NickyJ

[Voice_of_Reason]

2 hours ago, HigSkin said:

LOL, agree

 

 

 

I went to the Colts vs. Redskins game at the RCA dome in 2006 (I think) during Gibbs II.  Wonderful people.  I was there for work, came into the stadium wearing just a regular polo and a black 'Skins hat with a black embossed logo. (ie: if you weren't really looking, it was tough to tell it was a 'Skins hat.  Wasn't flashy.  Was one of my favorite hats of all time.  but I digress.)

 

Everybody was so nice.  People I was sitting next to, people in the stadium, just a bunch of very happy, jovial, not overly drunk, nice people.  Had some good conversations, they didn't try and rub it in when it was apparent they were going to crush us, etc. 

 

I have no comment on Dallas fans. But when I found out on our first date my (now) wife was born in the Dallas area, I asked her if she was a Cowboy fan.  If she answered yes, my life would be very different.  At the very least, I would either be unmarried or have a different wife.   (Luckily she's a die hard Saints fan. Family was from Louisiana, she went to college in Louisiana, and kidnof hates Texas.  So, it worked out.) 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

12 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Well...  this is where I've always had a problem with the vernacular "x games over 500" and the way it's applied.  Like this is a decades long gripe of mine.  I get the way people talk about it, it's basically the difference between the record you have to even.  So if you're 10-7, you're 3 games over 500.  What it means is you would have to lose 3 more games to get to 500, which would mean you'd have 20 games. But there aren't 20 games in an NFL season.  I hate the way the math is applied and referenced

 

Because a .500 winning percentage is actually 8-8-1 with the stupid 17 game schedule.

 

So 8-9 is technically .5 games under a .500 winning percentage based on the number of games in an NFL regular season.  

 

And 10-7 is technically 1.5 games over .500 winning percentage based on the number of games in an NFL regular season.

 

And it's STILL just a 2 game difference between them in the win column.  And for that matter, the loss column.  

 

I dunno.  I get why it looks like a big difference.  But if you take "actual .500" in an NFL season being 8-8-1, which is what we were last year, being 1.5 games better than that vs. being .5 games worse is a total of a 2 game swing.  It's just not that much.

 

I get that people don't like to talk about math.  I'll leave it here.  It's been a bugaboo of mine, particularly in baseball, since I think I was in 8th grade and screaming at the radio because the announcers couldn't do basic math. 

 

 

For a dude who said it doesn't matter, "pointless entertainment", you sure like to dive deep into the weeds on this.  

 

I'll simplify it another way.

 

A.  Your prediction of 10-7 likely means a playoff season.  We rarely got those.  The playoffs are almost this team's new version of the SB.    Ron seems chesty when he talks about this roster and "progress".  Can you imagine him if he finally had a winning record here with a playoff birth?    He'd be expecting a parade. 

 

And I do think that would be enough progress to hold the renewed fan enthusiam.  10 wins which would be tied for the best win total for this team in the last 30 years would be celebrated.

 

Speaking for myself, I desperately want to see a playoff game live for the first time, so i'd be jazzed, too.

 

B.  My prediction of 8-9 likely means Ron is fired, new coaching staff, new FO.  Ron would cap off his career here with zero winning seasons.  And record wise at least zero progress for his tenure.  He can talk it up all he wants but no one is hositing Ron on their shoulders if they win the SB when he's gone.  Apparently he thinks he deserves that.  But I don't think it will happen for him if he goes 8-9.   Fan enthusiam likely wanes some but ironically the excitement comes from new beginnings.

 

6 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

I have no comment on Dallas fans. But when I found out on our first date my (now) wife was born in the Dallas area, I asked her if she was a Cowboy fan.  If she answered yes, my life would be very different.  At the very least, I would either be unmarried or have a different wife.   (Luckily she's a die hard Saints fan. Family was from Louisiana, she went to college in Louisiana, and kidnof hates Texas.  So, it worked out.) 

 

 

I believe they are playing the Saints on the road next year.  Of all the road games I've been to -- New Orleans is my fav.    

Edited September 5, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Voice_of_Reason]

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

 

For a dude who said it doesn't matter, "pointless entertainment", you sure like to dive deep into the weeds on this.  

I have significant emotional issues when math is applied poorly.  And I didn't say I didn't enjoy the pointless entertainment.   

 

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

I'll simplify it another way.

 

A.  Your prediction of 10-7 likely means a playoff season.  We rarely got thoses.  The playoffs are almost this team's new version of the SB.    Ron seems chesty when he talks about this roster and "progress".  Can you imagine him if he finally had a winning record here with a playoff birth?    He's be expecting a parade. 

 

And I do think that would be enough progress to hold the renewed fan enthusiam.  10 wins which would be tied for the best win total for this team in the last 30 years would be celebrated.

But remember: 10 wins in a 17 game season is actually really close to 9 games in a 16 game season from a winning percentage perspective:

9-7 = 56.52%

10-7 = 58.82%

 

No, they're not EXACTLY the same, but it's basically the same thing.  To me, 10-7 isn't impressive.  Just like 9-7 wasn't remotely impressive. In my math, it's 1 game over .500.  It's every so slightly above average.  

 

In a 17 game season, 11 wins is the new 10 wins.  

10-6 = 62.5%

11-6 = 64.7%

 

If you want to impress me, get to 11 wins.  That's the equivalent of 10 wins in a 16 game season.

 

 

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

Speaking for myself, I desperately want to see a playoff game live for the first time, so i'd be jazzed, too.

I've seen one: 1999, top row of the stadium vs. Detroit.  Frerotte was the Lion's QB.  It was a lot of fun.  Norv's shining moment as Redskins coach.  

 

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

B.  My prediction of 8-9 likely means Ron is fired, new coaching staff, new FO.  Ron would cap off his career here with zero winning seasons.  And record wise at least zero progress for his tenure.  He can talk it up all he wants but no one is hositing Ron on their shoulders if they win the SB when he's gone.  Apparently he thinks he deserves that.  But I don't think it will happen for him if he goes 8-9.   Fan enthusiams likely wanes some but ironically the excitement comes from new beginnings.

 

Agree.

 

However, regardless of the eventual consequences of each scenario, it still doesn't change the fact each record is 2 games from the other.  10 wins vs 8 wins = difference of 2 wins.  Nothing is going to change that.

 

The consequences are very different in each scenario.  But really, let's say 3 games come down to Slye making a last minute FG to win the game. Th other games, we're 8-6.  If he hits 2, misses 1, we end up at 10-7.  If he misses 2, hits one, we're 9-8, and if he misses all three, we're 8-9.  It could be THAT close between those three records.  And yeah, those three kicks could mean the difference between playoff berth and Ron fired.  (And yeah, I get it, have a bigger lead, you don't have to rely on your kicker to hit 3 game winning FGs.)  

 

Shrug.  We're due for some good juju around these parts. My prediction is basically that we're an average team and get a couple breaks.  We're due a break or two, and I'm baking on the football gods will grant us a break or two.  Slye's going to hit all 3 of his game winning FGs in my above scenario and we're going to dance in the streets.  (For the equivalent of a 9-7 record.)