2023 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Skinsinparadise]

6 minutes ago, method man said:

I agree they take 2 linemen. However, with the premium positions like OT and EDGE, you are getting projects in rd 3. On the other hand, with a non premium position like guard or center, you can potentially get yourself a guy who can step in Day 1 like a Stromberg with the 3rd round comp pick

 

lol, I am not going to go hard for Freeland, like I said i am agnostic on him.  Our third round pick is basically a 4th rounder, its at the end of the round.  Statistically speaking the odds are better at that point that the player is a bust.

 

so at that point, I am OK with rolling the dice on dudes who are athletic freaks especially at a spot where athleticism is often relevant.

 

The odds are good that there is a player at the bottom of the third or in the 4th round that I will like better than Freeland.   Like I said i am not really even a Freeland guy myself. 

 

But for @Chump Bailey, @RWJ among others who dig him -- i don't think their thought is from Mars.  

 

He likely wouldn't be who i want but if he was taken in that range, I'd get it, that's all. 😎

 

 

 

 

Edited March 25, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Chump Bailey]

3 draft prospects being linked to the Commanders at No. 47 overall

https://riggosrag.com/2023/03/24/3-draft-prospects-linked-commanders-no-47-overall/3/

 

Commanders could draft Eli Ricks

Commanders could draft Drew Sanders

Commanders could draft Trenton Simpson

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, Chump Bailey said:

3 draft prospects being linked to the Commanders at No. 47 overall

https://riggosrag.com/2023/03/24/3-draft-prospects-linked-commanders-no-47-overall/3/

 

Commanders could draft Eli Ricks

Commanders could draft Drew Sanders

Commanders could draft Trenton Simpson

 

 

the link headline is deceiving because basically the link is mock drafts.

[method man]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

lol, I am not going to go hard for Freeland, like I said i am agnostic on him.  Our third round pick is basically a 4th rounder, its at the end of the round.  Statistically speaking the odds are better at that point that the player is a bust.

 

so at that point, I am OK with rolling the dice on dudes who are athletic freaks especially at a spot where athleticism is often relevant.

 

The odds are good that there is a player at the bottom of the third or in the 4th round that I will like better than Freeland.   Like I said i am not really even a Freeland guy myself. 

 

But for @Chump Bailey, @RWJ among others who dig him -- i don't think their thought is from Mars.  

 

He likely wouldn't be who i want but if he was taken in that range, I'd get it, that's all. 😎

 

 

 

 

I know you are not a big Freeland fan. For all positions, it is generally true the later you draft, the higher the bust rate is

 

Interesting to note that every single prospect with the official designation as a center taken with a 3rd round comp pick or a 4th rounder between 2018-2021 has been a hit - Mason Cole, Allen on the Rams, Biadasz, Drew Dalman and Quinn Meinerz

[Going Commando]

Damn, Will Levis looks like a linebacker.  Only even less sloppy around the middle than a typical LB.  He is a beast in terms of his physical make up, and that pro day had a Josh Allen type of feel to it in terms of the superior athleticism and throwing power he put on display.

 

I know I said we shouldn't draft him because of the potential coaching change and ownership transition, but man, he is tempting.  You just don't see an arm like that very often.  Ripping 40 yard throws on a line with a blazing fast release and almost no lower body gathering up.  Just explosive upper body strength and super quick feet.

 

Could drafting Levis actually buy Rivera more time?

 

I'm kind of hoping that a Anthony Richardson goes in the top five and Levis falls.  If he makes it to around ten, that puts him in our range.

Edited March 25, 2023 by Going Commando

[Est.1974]

So we’ve spoken to a whole raft of OL prospects. For comparison, last year 19 OL players were selected by time the 92nd pick was in the book. 
 

I know that can’t be taken as a direct link to this years draft, but by time our 3rd round pick rolls around we are going to be a long way down the list of OL players already taken.

 

[philibusters]

1 hour ago, DWinzit said:

That's  where I  am at as well.

I just went through all the potential LT's again. To me PJJ is the only one capable of playing there this year or maybe next year.  In order to get him they'd need to move up and he isn't that good, he isn't in Trent Williams level

They should hold off and go interior in the 2nd or 3rd (some with RT potential) where there's a lot of good options

Based on my comments above, I could see them taking Mayer or Washington after a trade back at the back half of the first round. Would give immediate assistance on the outside for the tackles. Then go CB/LB and OL while cutting Logan Thomas. We absolutely need to add a good receiving quick RB like a Vaughn

 

To me the best O-Line starting 5 we could have next year is going to include Leno at LT, rookie at RT, Wylie and Cosmi at Guard.

[Going Commando]

Blake Freeland is an elite athlete for sure, but I guess my biggest problem with him as a prospect is that he always gets his ass kicked and can't block anyone.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, method man said:

 

 

Interesting to note that every single prospect with the official designation as a center taken with a 3rd round comp pick or a 4th rounder between 2018-2021 has been a hit - Mason Cole, Allen on the Rams, Biadasz, Drew Dalman and Quinn Meinerz

 

Feels like Wypler, Olu, Stromberg might be there in that third range.  If not in the 4th, I'd guess Forsyth is still there.  Heck if I buy the mocks, Stromberg might still be there in the 6th.  

Edited March 25, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Chump Bailey]

If Levis makes it to #10 I'd be stunned.

 

 

[Going Commando]

I will say this about Freeland though, as an olive branch to his fans here: when you get past the first three rounds, why not?  At that point you're in Jaelyn Duncan/Braeden Daniels/Carter Warren/Blake Freeland athletic lottery ticket territory.  With Freeland specifically, you're hoping to take a guy with tons of warts on film and waaaaaaay below NFL level functional power, but good speed, and mold him into a player with high level NFL strength training and coaching.  I'd rather have him as a project than a high intangibles guy who is clearly going to be a career back up like Ryan Hayes or Warren McClendon, or projects who just can't play at all like Asim Richards or Nick Saldiveri.

 

My OT rankings:

 

1 - Paris Johnson Jr

2 - Dawand Jones

3 - Anton Harrison

4 - Darnell Wright

5 - Broderick Jones

6 - Matthew Bergeron

7 - Wanya Morris

8 - Richard Gouraige

9 - Carter Warren

10 - Braeden Daniels

11 - Jaelyn Duncan

12 - Blake Freeland

13 - McClendon Curtis

14 - Ryan Hayes

15 - Warren McClendon

16 - Asim Richards

17 - Nick Saldiveri

 

- I've got Skoronski, Steen, and Mauch moving to guard because of their arm length measurements.

 

- I think the cutoff for finding a year one starter is after Wright. 

 

- I think the cut off for finding a likely (eventual) starter is after Gouraige.

 

- I think Warren on down and you've entered flier/project territory.

 

This is not a position group to wait on if you're looking for a guy who can play early.

[Going Commando]

35 minutes ago, Chump Bailey said:

If Levis makes it to #10 I'd be stunned.

 

 

 

I would be too, but QB stock is super elastic and frequently irrational.  I was stunned that DeShaun Watson made it to 12, Lamar Jackson to 32, Malik Willis to 86, Sam Howell to 144, etc.

 

Teams pass on QBs they have as the BPA at their pick because they generally don't draft the position if they don't need an immediate starter, or they wait so late into the draft that they can sell the move as picking a future back up.  Drafting the position early comes with the expectation that they are your long term guy, and it can **** with your locker room by picking a QB in the first or second round when you've either got an established guy, or someone you're trying to develop into an established guy.

 

In our case, it would certainly transform our locker room if we picked Levis.  We would effectively be cutting bait on Sam Howell and would probably need to trade the poor kid.

 

I'm torn on whether or not to do this if the opportunity came along for us.  When I look at Sam Howell, I don't see 144th best player from last year's class.  I see a top 40 player from his class who got screwed by the way the NFL drafts his position.  I see someone with quality starter potential.

 

But when I look at Levis, I see top ten player in his class and perennial pro bowl starter potential.  Such explosive athletic ability there, a great situation could realistically see him develop him into one of the league's best players.  Can we provide that situation for him?  I don't know.  Are we better off shooting our shot with Sam Howell and fortifying the team around him?  Again, I don't know.

[Skinsinparadise]

I've watched a little Alex Forsyth, center, Oregon and talked about him but just rewatched some more.   I like him. For interior O lineman in particular I look for consistency.  And the 2 games I watched he was really solid, and I watched the Georgia game and as we know they have a good D line. 

 

I'll double down on my point, good pick in that 5th-6th round range.

 

He didn't have a hot vertical and horizontal at the combine but to my eyes he is plenty agile enough.  He plays a bit upright but he sinks his hips with enough ease, he anchors really well in pass protect, mirrors well where he keeps the defender square.  As a run blocker, he's not a people driver like lets say Tippman but he moves well and locks into his assignment.  

 

He had PFf's highest pass protect score among these centers, gave up just one sack and one QB hurry. 

 

 

https://www.registerguard.com/story/sports/college/football/2020/11/03/homegrown-ducks-forsyth-walk-leading-oregons-offensive-line/6043928002/

Alex Forsyth and Ryan Walk, homegrown players who grew up dreaming of playing for the Ducks, have been praised repeatedly by coaches and their peers throughout fall camp.

 

...“Alex Forsyth is a really hard worker. He’s just been a guy that’s been putting in the work in the weight room, the film (room). I can see myself that he’s trying his hardest to be that leader in the O-line,” Faoliu said. 

 

...Over the past two seasons, Forsyth has played a total of 91 snaps in 10 games at both guard spots and right tackle. Now he’ll be making line calls and snapping the ball to the quarterback.

“We call him toolbox. He’s a great dude, he has picked it up,” Steven Jones, listed as a co-starter at left and right tackle, said of Forsyth. “He’s telling the offensive line everything we need to know, especially the young guys. He’ll bring us in on our off days to get a little more film in, watch together, and bring that chemistry back together. …

“Alex has been doing a great job of making sure we’re all in tune with each other, making sure we’re moving together as one.”

 

 

 

 

Edited March 25, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy]

If Bijan is on the board at 16…I might draft somebody else but I would sure stare at his name for a long time. 😆

 

I think putting Bijan in the backfield with Robinson would be a homerun. The RPO action would look a lot different with Bijan on the field and what better way to protect your young QB than to give him a strong running game?

 

I’m biased because I’m such a fan of watching him play, but drafting him and addressing other needs in later rounds doesn’t seem like such a bad idea.

[Est.1974]

Didn’t Wylie start at RT for most or even all last season, including a shutdown performance in the SB.

 

Let’s draft a couple of nasty mauling IOL. 

[Skinsinparadise]

57 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

I will say this about Freeland though, as an olive branch to his fans here: when you get past the first three rounds, why not?  At that point you're in Jaelyn Duncan/Braeden Daniels/Carter Warren/Blake Freeland athletic lottery ticket territory.  With Freeland specifically, you're hoping to take a guy with tons of warts on film and waaaaaaay below NFL level functional power, but good speed, and mold him into a player with high level NFL strength training and coaching.  I'd rather have him as a project than a high intangibles guy who is clearly going to be a career back up like Ryan Hayes or Warren McClendon, or projects who just can't play at all like Asim Richards or Nick Saldiveri.

 

My OT rankings:

 

1 - Paris Johnson Jr

2 - Dawand Jones

3 - Anton Harrison

4 - Darnell Wright

5 - Broderick Jones

6 - Matthew Bergeron

7 - Wanya Morris

8 - Richard Gouraige

9 - Carter Warren

10 - Braeden Daniels

11 - Jaelyn Duncan

12 - Blake Freeland

13 - McClendon Curtis

14 - Ryan Hayes

15 - Warren McClendon

16 - Asim Richards

17 - Nick Saldiveri

 

- I've got Skoronski, Steen, and Mauch moving to guard because of their arm length measurements.

 

- I think the cutoff for finding a year one starter is after Wright. 

 

- I think the cut off for finding a likely (eventual) starter is after Gouraige.

 

- I think Warren on down and you've entered flier/project territory.

 

This is not a position group to wait on if you're looking for a guy who can play early.

 

I posted mine here a few days ago, I went 12 deep,that was part of my post.

 

My top 12 at tackle for now, Kipers top 10 below that, I am taking Mauch out because to me he's a guard, Steen probably too but i'll keep him in.

 

1. Paris Johnson

2. Dawand Jones

3. Anton Harrison

4. Darnell Wright

5. Broderick Jones

6. Matthew Bergeron

7. Tyler Steen

8. Wanya Morris

 

 

Your first 6 are exactly the same as mine, actually really the top 7 is the same, I just happened to include Steen even though I agree he's more of a guard and said so in that post, but I matched mine up to Kiper's list and Kiper listed Steen as a tackle.

 

The odds are pretty wild that our lists are that identical considering both of our lists are really off beat compared to the typical ranking.   so that's cool that we've landed with so many parallels.  

 

We depart some after the top 10 but not that radically.  I see Daniels as a guard, sub 300 pounds and 33 inch arms but I like him at guard.  I am feeling pretty comfortable with my takes at tackle, I've watched so much of those guys.   I have to spend time to seperate the guards and centers, working it.

Edited March 25, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[bowhunter]

21 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

Didn’t Wylie start at RT for most or even all last season, including a shutdown performance in the SB.

 

Let’s draft a couple of nasty mauling IOL. 

He did, but it wasn't necessarily pretty. I don't think he is a significant upgrade in play over what we had in Cosmi. The only upside is that he is probably not worse and would allow us to slide Cosmi to G.

Of course it is possible that our new Superhero OL coach Mysterion can get even better performance from him than that Reid guy.

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1751797/mediaviewer/rm3358292224/?ref_=tt_md_2

Edited March 25, 2023 by bowhunter

[Warhead36]

I'd like Levis more if he wasn't gonna be 24 at the start of the season. That old and still super unpolished. Let some other team take a risk on him.

[Chump Bailey]

Guess who's going in the top 50?

 

 

This Mo-Fo right here!

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

TE or O line project I gather

[shemp nixon]

49 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

Didn’t Wylie start at RT for most or even all last season, including a shutdown performance in the SB.

 

Let’s draft a couple of nasty mauling IOL. 

Yep, and an LT to groom behind Leno this year.

[Going Commando]

52 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Your first 6 are exactly the same as mine, actually really the top 7 is the same, I just happened to include Steen even though I agree he's more of a guard and said so in that post, but I matched mine up to Kiper's list and Kiper listed Steen as a tackle.

 

The odds are pretty wild that our lists are that identical considering both of our lists are really off beat compared to the typical ranking.   so that's cool that we've landed with so many parallels.  

 

We depart some after the top 10 but not that radically.  I see Daniels as a guard, sub 300 pounds and 33 inch arms but I like him at guard.  I am feeling pretty comfortable with my takes at tackle, I've watched so much of those guys.   I have to spend time to seperate the guards and centers, working it

 

I had to put Steen and Mauch at guard to be consistent with my reasoning for putting Skoronski at guard.  Sub 33" arms can't just be the cut off for Skoronski or else it isn't really a standard.  Daniels just barely passes the cut off so I left him at tackle, but I think you're right that his future is at guard and he's a better fit there.  Actually a very intriguing prospect at that position.

 

The guard class ends up looking a lot better when you move Steen, Mauch, and Skoronski and Daniels there and it isn't just Torrence alone at the top.  It's deeper in quality that tackle under those circumstances.

 

I think we in this thread are largely of a mind on the OTs this year, and it's probably because our opinions of what we value are shaped by the style of the Commanders.  Also we influence each other ad are probably watching the same games of cut ups.  The only differences of opinion we have are more fringey takes, like how much we value the potential of a few guys like Bergeron or Freeland.  In CB's case, he likes the upside on Freeland and sees the best case scenario, whereas I get more hung up on the strength and technique issues and don't like the bet as much.  Stuff like that, where reasonable minds can disagree.

[mhd24]

2 hours ago, Going Commando said:

Damn, Will Levis looks like a linebacker.  Only even less sloppy around the middle than a typical LB.  He is a beast in terms of his physical make up, and that pro day had a Josh Allen type of feel to it in terms of the superior athleticism and throwing power he put on display.

 

I know I said we shouldn't draft him because of the potential coaching change and ownership transition, but man, he is tempting.  You just don't see an arm like that very often.  Ripping 40 yard throws on a line with a blazing fast release and almost no lower body gathering up.  Just explosive upper body strength and super quick feet.

 

Could drafting Levis actually buy Rivera more time?

 

I'm kind of hoping that a Anthony Richardson goes in the top five and Levis falls.  If he makes it to around ten, that puts him in our range.

 

 

I figure Indy/Vegas take him.  Seattle (or heck Atlanta) could take him too.  

[Going Commando]

12 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

I figure Indy/Vegas take him.  Seattle (or heck Atlanta) could take him too.  

 

Pete Carroll is definitely in the hunt for a QB.  I think the Geno Smith contract threw people off the fact that Carroll is a fearless risk-taker at the position, and that he wouldn't be afraid to dump his vet QB in a heartbeat if he has a chance at something special in the draft (did it with Charlie Whitehurst for Russell Wilson ten years ago).

 

I see his face in all of the first round QB pro-day videos, so he's there watching these guys throw.

 

I have a hard time getting a feel for Atlanta's direction with the first round pick.  They aren't as transparent of a team as ours is.  All of the local guys are talking Tyree Wilson or Lukas Van Ness (some like  Murphy too).  But they've also been thirsting after Bijan Robinson and have really mixed feelings about him.  They like Allgeier, and they know they need to get the defense fixed, and they know it would be hard to justify going TE, WR, RB in the top ten three years in a row with a busted ass pass defense.  But they still want Bijan, I can tell.  And they are definitely not in love with Myles Murphy, Lukas Van Ness, or Tyree Wilson.

 

And then the other position they talk about is corner.  They like AJ Terrell and are intrigued by Jessie Bates and the other safeties they have, but they want another corner to make the secondary air-tight.

 

They never talk about QB though.  They seem content to move forward with Ridder, similar to how we are with Howell.

 

Even though I think they should draft Levis if he's there, the only offensive player I think they might take is Bijan.  On defense I think they could absolutely draft any of Wilson/Van Ness/Murphy, but would also consider drafting Gonzalez or Spoon.  And I could also see them drafting Jalen Carter, Bryan Bresee, or Calijah Kancey, but think that's less likely than edge or corner.

[mhd24]

7 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

Pete Carroll is definitely in the hunt for a QB.  I think the Geno Smith contract threw people off the fact that Carroll is a fearless risk-taker at the position, and that he wouldn't be afraid to dump his vet QB in a heartbeat if he has a chance at something special in the draft (did it with Charlie Whitehurst for Russell Wilson ten years ago).

 

I see his face in all of the first round QB pro-day videos, so he's there watching these guys throw.

 

I have a hard time getting a feel for Atlanta's direction with the first round pick.  They aren't as transparent of a team as ours is.  All of the local guys are talking Tyree Wilson or Lukas Van Ness (some like  Murphy too).  But they've also been thirsting after Bijan Robinson and have really mixed feelings about him.  They like Allgeier, and they know they need to get the defense fixed, and they know it would be hard to justify going TE, WR, RB in the top ten three years in a row with a busted ass pass defense.  But they still want Bijan, I can tell.  And they are definitely not in love with Myles Murphy, Lukas Van Ness, or Tyree Wilson.

 

And then the other position they talk about is corner.  They like AJ Terrell and are intrigued by Jessie Bates and the other safeties they have, but they want another corner to make the secondary air-tight.

 

They never talk about QB though.  They seem content to move forward with Ridder, similar to how we are with Howell.

 

Even though I think they should draft Levis if he's there, the only offensive player I think they might take is Bijan.  On defense I think they could absolutely draft any of Wilson/Van Ness/Murphy, but would also consider drafting Gonzalez or Spoon.  And I could also see them drafting Jalen Carter, Bryan Bresee, or Calijah Kancey, but think that's less likely than edge or corner.

Yeah, I've been on the Bijon to Atlanta train.  He'd make that offense gel.  However, going skill in three consecutive drafts would be worrisome and they can take a RB with their relatively high 2nd round pick.  Right now, it's Carter (if he's there), Withersoon/Gonzalez (whomever is available (unless Vegas & Detroit both take Corner)), or Bijon for me for Atlanta's pick.

 

Seattle always trades down in the draft.  Philly is very interesting to me.  Could they trade up for Carter assuming he's there at 5?  I could see it.  He'd replace Hargrave and Howie is a risk taker.  Taking Carter fits his MO.  Something around 5+#52 for #10+#30+#62 would be a fair trade.

 

Seattle take Levis (if he's there at 10) or edge that they prefer (Van Ness/Wilson).

Edited March 25, 2023 by mhd24