Welcome to the Washington Commanders Sam Howell QB North Carolina

[KDawg]

34 minutes ago, Wafers said:

I have seen enough "first round talent QB steals" in the later round (Conner Cook, Matt Barkley, Ryan Mallet etc etc) to know a 5th round QB draftee is at best a career backup and most likely a camp cut in three years.  It is a wasted pick.

 

This is fantastic. Someone let the team know we have a time traveler/fortune reader that can help us hit on all draft picks. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

25 minutes ago, Wafers said:

I have seen enough "first round talent QB steals" in the later round (Conner Cook, Matt Barkley, Ryan Mallet etc etc) to know a 5th round QB draftee is at best a career backup and most likely a camp cut in three years.  It is a wasted pick.

Yeah, but not really.  Because they weren't looking for anything other than a backup, really, with the 5th round pick.  If you can get a guy in the 5th round who lasts 4 years as a backup, then you've absolutely met the value of the pick.

 

If you think they're going to be MORE than that value and you pick them there, then you're probably going to be disappointed.

 

This team has used either 3 or 4 QBs since 2018.  They need 3 QBs on the roster who can play.  They have a starter, in Wentz.  They have a capable, come in and finish a game and maybe start a game or two guy in Taylor Heinicke.  ( @kingdaddy please note that I am not taking a shot at TH here. In fact stating exactly what he is.) They needed a third.  

 

There are 2 ways to get the third:  You sign in FA, one of the guys who is out there who has virtually no upside, or you draft a guy in the mid to late rounds who has upside who you can bring along.  Maybe you can find an UDFA you like, but in most cases, an UDFA is destined to the practice squad at best.  

 

Typically if your backup QB plays more than a few snaps in a season, you're screwed.  (There are exceptions to this rule: Kurt Warner, Tom Brady, Steve Young, Ryan Tannehill were all backups and then became starters and, to varying degrees, flourished.)

 

If your 3rd string QB is starting, you're screwed up the ass sideways with a flagpole.  So go out and get a guy who has a chance to become the primary backup over time, has upside, and is cheap as hell. 

 

As long as you set the correct expectations for the pick, it's exactly in line with what it should be.  If you think you're getting a starter (at any position) in the 5th, you're completely nuts and have no idea how the NFL works.  COULD you get a starter in the 5th?  Sure.  But you can't bank on it.  

 

[KDawg]

Just now, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

 

This team has used either 3 or 4 QBs since 2018.  They need 3 QBs on the roster who can play.  They have a starter, in Wentz.  They have a capable, come in and finish a game and maybe start a game or two guy in Taylor Heinicke.  ( @kingdaddy please note that I am not taking a shot at TH here. In fact stating exactly what he is.) They needed a third.  

 

 

 

This is exactly what I would say if I was taking a thinly veiled shot that I wanted to remain veiled, too. 

 

Well played. 

[LD0506]

2 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

This is fantastic. Someone let the team know we have a time traveler/fortune reader that can help us hit on all Powerball picks. 

 

FTFY

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 minute ago, KDawg said:

 

This is exactly what I would say if I was taking a thinly veiled shot that I wanted to remain veiled, too. 

 

Well played. 

It's not a veiled shot! In any way!  For the love of God.  

 

I think I'm going to have to go out and buy a TH jersey just to prove I don't hate the guy. (The 2 problems being, I don't know if they sell them, though I assume they do, and I don't buy jerseys of current players on the roster because the last one (and only one) I ever bought, the player was murdered.  And I'm superstitious like that, and I don't want TH murdered. Or cut.  Or even demoted.)

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

It's not a veiled shot! In any way!  For the love of God.  

 

I think I'm going to have to go out and buy a TH jersey just to prove I don't hate the guy. (The 2 problems being, I don't know if they sell them, though I assume they do, and I don't buy jerseys of current players on the roster because the last one (and only one) I ever bought, the player was murdered.  And I'm superstitious like that, and I don't want TH murdered. Or cut.  Or even demoted.)

 

How do we know that you aren't a walking jinx and that the players' jerseys you buy aren't hexxed by your fandom and this is another thinly veiled way to remove Heinicke?

 

We're on to you. 

[Dan T.]

This blows my mind.  Sam Howell has never has a steak.  Someone grill that guy a Delmonico. Stat.

 

 

[CommanderInTheRye]

12 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

How do we know that you aren't a walking jinx and that the players' jerseys you buy aren't hexxed by your fandom and this is another thinly veiled way to remove Heinicke?

 

We're on to you. 

 

 

I belly laughed when I read this and properly emojied you for the fine effort.

 

Then I considered with sadness the reality that somewhere out there in the "electron ether" a hopelessly lost soul is reading the words above while shaking their head slowly up and down in sincere agreement at the truth herein revealed.

 

And I lamented...

 

We are living in the golden age of paranoia, hysteria, disinfirmation, conspiracy, and disbelief, a time when even blatantly obvious sarcasm can easily be misinterpreted as sincere commentary.

 

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

Just now, KDawg said:

 

How do we know that you aren't a walking jinx and that the players' jerseys you buy aren't hexxed by your fandom and this is another thinly veiled way to remove Heinicke?

 

We're on to you. 

You've got me.

17 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

Then I considered with sadness the reality that somewhere out there in the "electron ether" a hopelessly lost soul is reading the words above while shaking their head slowly up and down in sincere agreement at the truth herein revealed.

Hey, don't pick on @Cooleyfan1993 's broken sarcasm meter like that.  It's not nice. 

 

(Poking fun with love in my heart.  Love in my heart...)  

[Voice_of_Reason]

29 minutes ago, Dan T. said:

This blows my mind.  Sam Howell has never has a steak.  Someone grill that guy a Delmonico. Stat.

 

 

I wonder why he hasn't had steak?  Preference?  Eating healthy?  Prefers chicken?   

 

Cole Turner is a really good chess player.  That's cool.  

[Idaho fan]

6 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I wonder why he hasn't had steak?  Preference?  Eating healthy?  Prefers chicken?   

 

Cole Turner is a really good chess player.  That's cool.  

He has said in interviews that he doesn't like red meat.  Sticks to chicken.

[Voice_of_Reason]

8 minutes ago, Idaho fan said:

He has said in interviews that he doesn't like red meat.  Sticks to chicken.

He should immediately be cut, shunned and evicted.  

[CommanderInTheRye]

Just now, Voice_of_Reason said:

I wonder why he hasn't had steak?  Preference?  Eating healthy?  Prefers chicken?   

 

Cole Turner is a really good chess player.  That's cool.  

 

 

 

Didn't he grow up extremely poor?

 

I read that as a child his parents only source of income was molasses that they made themselves from processing wild cane sugar plants.

 

His father used to hunt but infrequently caught anything.  He was arrested for stealing a ham from a local smokehouse so that his family would have food to eat.

 

Worst of all, when the police came to arrest his dad they shot Sam's hound dog.

 

Eventually Sam ended up leaving his parents to live with a foster family in a fashionable neighborhood where he later went on to fame playing football.

 

Hey wait a minute! Am I confusing Howell's childhood with the plot of the movie Sounder?

 

Never mind.

[Voice_of_Reason]

@CommanderInTheRye I literally have no idea if you are serious or not with that post.  I haven't seen the movie Sounder in forever.  Now MY sarcasm meter is broken...

[CommanderInTheRye]

28 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

@CommanderInTheRye I literally have no idea if you are serious or not with that post.  I haven't seen the movie Sounder in forever.  Now MY sarcasm meter is broken...

 

I was trying to find a clip of when the father gets arrested for stealing the ham and Sounder got shot but all I could find was a trailer on youtube...

 

 

 

[CommDownMan]

3 hours ago, Wafers said:

I have seen enough "first round talent QB steals" in the later round (Conner Cook, Matt Barkley, Ryan Mallet etc etc) to know a 5th round QB draftee is at best a career backup and most likely a camp cut in three years.  It is a wasted pick.

 

I mean, I've seen lots of first rounders that couldn't even be career backups.  

 

Maybe we should stop drafting QBs and just run 100 wildcat formations or trade for the Mahomes/Rodgers of the league since teams so readily want to get rid of these type players.

[Voice_of_Reason]

40 minutes ago, CommDownMan said:

 

I mean, I've seen lots of first rounders that couldn't even be career backups.  

 

Maybe we should stop drafting QBs and just run 100 wildcat formations or trade for the Mahomes/Rodgers of the league since teams so readily want to get rid of these type players.

75% of players drafted don't make it to year 4.

 

QBs in the first round have something like a 33% hit rate.  That goes up a bit for the top 10-ish types.  It gets worse the further you go back.

 

There is always the exception that proves the rule.  (ie: Tom Brady in the 6th.)  

 

But generally, the whole draft is a complete crap shoot, there's no such thing as a sure thing, and you have to expect most guys will flame out.

 

And even the best GMs in the history of football have screwed up royally: Bobby Beathard traded UP to draft Ryan Leaf.  Who is on the short list of the biggest draft busts in the history of the NFL.  

[IrepDC]

Last year I made a post saying how so many teams had taken a shot for their franchise QBs that we would end up being able to get one in the "off year" of 2022 a lot easier. I didn't expect all of the QBs to slide as much as they did, but getting Howell with a 5th proved my original prediction. 

 

He's in a much better situation with this outcome, because he'll be the first rookie QB in my lifetime who won't have any pressure on him. This is the first time we can legitimately be patient and give a guy time to develop. It's up to Howell now to capitalize on this perfect setup for him to grow and succeed. 

[CommDownMan]

33 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

75% of players drafted don't make it to year 4.

 

QBs in the first round have something like a 33% hit rate.  That goes up a bit for the top 10-ish types.  It gets worse the further you go back.

 

There is always the exception that proves the rule.  (ie: Tom Brady in the 6th.)  

 

But generally, the whole draft is a complete crap shoot, there's no such thing as a sure thing, and you have to expect most guys will flame out.

 

And even the best GMs in the history of football have screwed up royally: Bobby Beathard traded UP to draft Ryan Leaf.  Who is on the short list of the biggest draft busts in the history of the NFL.  

 

I don't disagree.  In the 5th round there are low chances for most guys, except maybe LS, P, K or a few positions that aren't drafted until that point.

 

Even if there is a 5% hit rate on all 5th-7th picks, I'm not giving them up.  You take the chance and hope for the best.

[Burgold]

2 hours ago, CommDownMan said:

 

 

Maybe we should stop drafting QBs and just run 100 wildcat formations  

So, you want us to copy the Raven’s model?

[CommDownMan]

33 minutes ago, Burgold said:

So, you want us to copy the Raven’s model?

 

If we would generally draft like them too, you can mark me as a maybe. 

 

Even if that statement was dripping with Satan (edit: sarcasm, leaving anyway). 

Edited May 10, 2022 by CommDownMan

[Koolblue13]

19 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I think that had much less to do with the one day of practice and much more to do with the MONTHS of research they had done on him, with one day of "hey, he showed up.  Now onto part B of the plan."

 

Also, I just don't think they loved Moses.  Just like Matt I.  I think they kept him around, he didn't fit real well, and then when they could exit the player, they did. There were some rumblings that Moses was a little too opinionated about changing techniques.  Keim and a few others had that. So away he went.  

Not too many inherited players left, is there? Way, Roullier, Holcomb, Reaves (who's been cut), Danny Johnson, Terry

[KDawg]

43 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Not too many inherited players left, is there? Way, Roullier, Holcomb, Reaves (who's been cut), Danny Johnson, Terry

Allen, Payne. 

[skinny21]

1 hour ago, Koolblue13 said:

Not too many inherited players left, is there? Way, Roullier, Holcomb, Reaves (who's been cut), Danny Johnson, Terry

Did you seriously forget your boy Apke?  Lol.

 

Also Sweat, Cam Sims and Kelvin “I’m rooting for him, but he likely ain’t long for the squad” Harmon. 

 

I actually didn’t realize Reaves was cut.  Huh.

[Koolblue13]

14 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

Did you seriously forget your boy Apke?  Lol.

 

Also Sweat, Cam Sims and Kelvin “I’m rooting for him, but he likely ain’t long for the squad” Harmon. 

 

I actually didn’t realize Reaves was cut.  Huh.

I am so ashamed of myself. I had just woken up and I guess I haven't dreamed about him in awhile.

 

Reaves was tweeting about making the tam and the how the secondary sucked until midseason last year when we brought his slow ass back.

46 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Allen, Payne. 

12 guys from just 3 years ago seems like a pretty serious roster turn over.

 

Five pillars to build around and a bunch of role players.

 

I think that's pretty astonishing, considering it hasn't felt like a big rebuild, but I guess it has.