Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[Wildbunny]

6 hours ago, DogofWar1 said:

Mainly the big concern is to look politically united, which I think becomes at risk if you start getting close to a kinetic war.  Hungary won't be in.  Neither will Turkey.  Germany might get cold feet.  Some other nations might say no.  Then you've got a bunch of nations not invoking Art V which is probably the worst look.  Better response is to collectively promise/deliver a bunch more weapons to Ukraine to continue to be united while not forcing the kinetic issue onto the smaller states.

That would be kept within inner circles.

And I wouldn't count Turkey against it as they could gain a lot too as well.

 

Best part is that NATO could deploy weapons in Ukraine to defend itself if they feel like needed. They could even do that with no american soldiers as you could send Brits, French, Polish and many others there without sending a single US soldier in Ukraine. That would be one hell of a symbol and could force Europe's hand. Because, damn, we should be the one helping Ukraine the most here.

 

Anyway, since Ukrainians since to be the ones that made the mistake, everyone can relax, nobody's gonna make **** about it. But it'll has shown Russia that we are quick to hustle, so there's still that.

[Cooked Crack]

 

[Larry]

You have to figure that we've got a ****load of intel surveillance watching that fight. Both to aid Ukraine, and to gather intel on the Russian military in combat against modern weapons. 

[China]

 

[China]

Russia pushes military diplomacy in Africa amid Ukraine war

 

Troop training, arms sales and mercenaries are the pillars of Russia's security support in Africa. But analysts say the war in Ukraine has exposed the risks to African nations of relying on Russian military support.

 

Algeria is one of Russia's most important military allies in Africa. It's also the largest customer of Russian weapons on the continent, followed by Egypt, Sudan and Angola, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), which tracks armaments.

 

Just under half of the military equipment in Africa is supplied by Russia. Not only does Russia have strong historical ties from when it armed African nations during their liberation struggles in the 1950s and '60s, but Russian weapons deals also come with fewer political demands.

 

Experts say the reliance of Algeria and other African nations on Russian armaments is now putting their defense systems at risk.

 

Russia's defense industries are already scrambling to replenish the country's own weapons stocks, depleted by the war in Ukraine. On top of this, the country's access to advanced components used in its weapons systems is restricted by sanctions.

 

That means they may be unable to fulfill existing orders, Khanyile told DW.

 

Then there are the issues of maintenance and repair. "You have a whole bunch of African countries like Algeria who are solely or predominantly reliant on Russia for their military assets," Khanyile said. "These have to be maintained and fixed or replaced if something goes wrong; they need spares for them."

 

But export controls restrict the availability of parts, while sanctions stop the manufacturers from flying in expert support from Russia, Khanyile said. Russia's suspension from global finance systems also makes it "very difficult" for African clients to receive and pay for such services from Moscow.

 

An analysis of Russia's arms exports in the wake of the Ukraine war by Foreign Policy,  a US magazine, came to a similar conclusion, saying it expected "significant slowdowns in the Kremlin's arms deliveries into Africa" and that sanctions had "already eroded ... the Kremlin's ability to restock complex parts."

 

Click on the link for the full article

[Larry]

4 hours ago, China said:

Russia pushes military diplomacy in Africa amid Ukraine war

 

Troop training, arms sales and mercenaries are the pillars of Russia's security support in Africa. But analysts say the war in Ukraine has exposed the risks to African nations of relying on Russian military support.

 

Algeria is one of Russia's most important military allies in Africa. It's also the largest customer of Russian weapons on the continent, followed by Egypt, Sudan and Angola, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), which tracks armaments.

 

Just under half of the military equipment in Africa is supplied by Russia. Not only does Russia have strong historical ties from when it armed African nations during their liberation struggles in the 1950s and '60s, but Russian weapons deals also come with fewer political demands.

 

Experts say the reliance of Algeria and other African nations on Russian armaments is now putting their defense systems at risk.

 

Russia's defense industries are already scrambling to replenish the country's own weapons stocks, depleted by the war in Ukraine. On top of this, the country's access to advanced components used in its weapons systems is restricted by sanctions.

 

That means they may be unable to fulfill existing orders, Khanyile told DW.

 

Then there are the issues of maintenance and repair. "You have a whole bunch of African countries like Algeria who are solely or predominantly reliant on Russia for their military assets," Khanyile said. "These have to be maintained and fixed or replaced if something goes wrong; they need spares for them."

 

But export controls restrict the availability of parts, while sanctions stop the manufacturers from flying in expert support from Russia, Khanyile said. Russia's suspension from global finance systems also makes it "very difficult" for African clients to receive and pay for such services from Moscow.

 

An analysis of Russia's arms exports in the wake of the Ukraine war by Foreign Policy,  a US magazine, came to a similar conclusion, saying it expected "significant slowdowns in the Kremlin's arms deliveries into Africa" and that sanctions had "already eroded ... the Kremlin's ability to restock complex parts."

 

Click on the link for the full article

 

Hey.  Maybe these third world militaries could sell their weapons back to Russia.  Since their equipment might be better than Russia's are, right now.  

 

[gbear]

3 hours ago, Larry said:

 

Hey.  Maybe these third world militaries could sell their weapons back to Russia.  Since their equipment might be better than Russia's are, right now.  

 

Or at least better maintained?

Edited November 18, 2022 by gbear

[Wildbunny]

6 hours ago, gbear said:

Or at least better maintained?

That's not even given. Africa is even more corrupt than Russia.

And with all the **** Wagner is doing there, it would be fun if NATO engaged Wagner's troops and bombed their asses to death wherever they are.

 

Technically, that wouldn't be declaring war with Russia, Wagner is forbidden in Russia according to their law. So, should be free and fun to watch.

[Riggo-toni]

https://cepa.org/article/its-costing-peanuts-for-the-us-to-defeat-russia/

 

The Ukrainian armed forces have already killed or wounded upwards of 100,000 Russian troops, half its original fighting force; there have been almost 8,000 confirmed losses of armored vehicles including thousands of tanks, thousands of APCs, artillery pieces, hundreds of fixed and rotary wing aircraft, and numerous naval vessels. US spending of 5.6% of its defense budget to destroy nearly half of Russia’s conventional military capability seems like an absolutely incredible investment. If we divide out the US defense budget to the threats it faces, Russia would perhaps be of the order of $100bn-150bn in spend-to-threat. So spending just $40bn a year, erodes a threat value of $100-150bn, a two-to-three time return.  

The US military might reasonably wish Russia to continue deploying military forces for Ukraine to destroy.  

Meanwhile, replacing destroyed kit, and keeping up with the new arms race that it has now triggered with the West will surely end up bankrupting the Russian economy; especially an economy subject to aggressive Western sanctions. How can Russia possibly hope to win an arms race when the combined GDP of the West is $40 trillion, and its defense spending amounting to 2% of GDP totals well in excess of $1 trillion when the disproportionate US defense contribution is considered? Russia’s total GDP is only $1.8 trillion. Vladimir Putin will have to divert spending from consumption to defense, risking social and political unrest over the medium term, and a real and soon-to-be present danger to his regime.

 

Full story at link.

[CousinsCowgirl84]

5 minutes ago, Riggo-toni said:

https://cepa.org/article/its-costing-peanuts-for-the-us-to-defeat-russia/

 

The Ukrainian armed forces have already killed or wounded upwards of 100,000 Russian troops, half its original fighting force; there have been almost 8,000 confirmed losses of armored vehicles including thousands of tanks, thousands of APCs, artillery pieces, hundreds of fixed and rotary wing aircraft, and numerous naval vessels. US spending of 5.6% of its defense budget to destroy nearly half of Russia’s conventional military capability seems like an absolutely incredible investment. If we divide out the US defense budget to the threats it faces, Russia would perhaps be of the order of $100bn-150bn in spend-to-threat. So spending just $40bn a year, erodes a threat value of $100-150bn, a two-to-three time return.  

The US military might reasonably wish Russia to continue deploying military forces for Ukraine to destroy.  

Meanwhile, replacing destroyed kit, and keeping up with the new arms race that it has now triggered with the West will surely end up bankrupting the Russian economy; especially an economy subject to aggressive Western sanctions. How can Russia possibly hope to win an arms race when the combined GDP of the West is $40 trillion, and its defense spending amounting to 2% of GDP totals well in excess of $1 trillion when the disproportionate US defense contribution is considered? Russia’s total GDP is only $1.8 trillion. Vladimir Putin will have to divert spending from consumption to defense, risking social and political unrest over the medium term, and a real and soon-to-be present danger to his regime.

 

Full story at link.

🤷‍♀️🤷‍♀️🤷‍♀️

 

US is running low on some weapons and ammunition to transfer to Ukraine

As the first full winter of Russia's war with Ukraine sets in, the US is running low on some high-end weapons systems and ammunition available to transfer to Kyiv, three US officials with direct knowledge tell CNN.

The strain on weapons stockpiles -- and the ability of the US industrial base to keep up with demand -- is one of the key challenges facing the Biden administration as the US continues to send billions of dollars of weapons to Ukraine to support its fight against Russia. One of the officials said the stockpiles of certain systems are "dwindling" after nearly nine months of sending supplies to Kyiv during the high-intensity war, as there's "finite amount" of excess stocks which the US has available to send.

 

 

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/11/17/politics/us-weapon-stocks-ukraine/index.html

 

 

Given General Miley's comments and these officials comments, seems like at least the powers that be in the military would like the war to reach its conclusion sooner rather than later….

[Larry]

* wonders how I can get my 401k invested in companies that will be making a killing off of this. 
 

Republicans are guaranteed to try to hurt the economy. But we know they'll be throwing billions at "defense". Which, in Republican, means "defense companies". 

[Wildbunny]

4 hours ago, Larry said:

* wonders how I can get my 401k invested in companies that will be making a killing off of this. 
 

Republicans are guaranteed to try to hurt the economy. But we know they'll be throwing billions at "defense". Which, in Republican, means "defense companies". 

With tensions rising in Asia as well, investing in weapons companies seems like a goof investment.

[LD0506]

13 hours ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

🤷‍♀️🤷‍♀️🤷‍♀️

 

US is running low on some weapons and ammunition to transfer to Ukraine

As the first full winter of Russia's war with Ukraine sets in, the US is running low on some high-end weapons systems and ammunition available to transfer to Kyiv, three US officials with direct knowledge tell CNN.

The strain on weapons stockpiles -- and the ability of the US industrial base to keep up with demand -- is one of the key challenges facing the Biden administration as the US continues to send billions of dollars of weapons to Ukraine to support its fight against Russia. One of the officials said the stockpiles of certain systems are "dwindling" after nearly nine months of sending supplies to Kyiv during the high-intensity war, as there's "finite amount" of excess stocks which the US has available to send.

 

 

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/11/17/politics/us-weapon-stocks-ukraine/index.html

 

 

Given General Miley's comments and these officials comments, seems like at least the powers that be in the military would like the war to reach its conclusion sooner rather than later….

 

Can't see the forest for the trees thinking here.

 

The US military has a massive supply infrastructure, it's one of our greatest strengths. All the way from the mfg through transport to warehouses and on to the actual stocks in hand for our troops, there is a long river of materiel flowing. We have been supplying the oldest static stocks to the Ukranians, prepackaged palletized munitions that were specifically designed and assembled for very quick resupply in the field. The $$$ being spent will produce new, fresher, in many cases upgraded versions of munitions to our own units, flowing back uphill to replace existing stocks in the supply chain. We are nowhere near being left short if the US has to engage anywhere, There are "bubbles" in the supply chain right now, warehouses that are not completely full in places, the replacements for the restocks for the depots for the units loadout. The result of all of this is that we get to upgrade our stocks and keep production lines running without overstocks or being committed to a tranche of supply that is older or pre-upgrade. I hope that official quoted didn't strain something reaching for "dwindling".

[Larry]

Hey, I get the feeling we're sending a lot of stuff over there. 
 

Certainly not everything. But not chicken feed, either. 
 

And while I really hope were not sending our best, either. (Don't want to be letting people see our best.)  It's not like we're sending chicken feed, either. 
 

Yeah. I could see that our warehouse levels are shrinking. Logistically, we're fighting a small war. 

[TheGreatBuzz]

52 minutes ago, LD0506 said:

 

Can't see the forest for the trees thinking here.

 

The US military has a massive supply infrastructure, it's one of our greatest strengths. All the way from the mfg through transport to warehouses and on to the actual stocks in hand for our troops, there is a long river of materiel flowing. We have been supplying the oldest static stocks to the Ukranians, prepackaged palletized munitions that were specifically designed and assembled for very quick resupply in the field. The $$$ being spent will produce new, fresher, in many cases upgraded versions of munitions to our own units, flowing back uphill to replace existing stocks in the supply chain. We are nowhere near being left short if the US has to engage anywhere, There are "bubbles" in the supply chain right now, warehouses that are not completely full in places, the replacements for the restocks for the depots for the units loadout. The result of all of this is that we get to upgrade our stocks and keep production lines running without overstocks or being committed to a tranche of supply that is older or pre-upgrade. I hope that official quoted didn't strain something reaching for "dwindling".

 

One thing I remember from my days was how often we would go out to shoot just because we had ammo the was expiring amd had to be used.  I really enjoy shooting and it happened so often, we would just throw the ammo over the side of the ship because we didn't feel like shooting anymore and having to clean the guns.

[Die Hard]

10 minutes ago, The Almighty Buzz said:

 

One thing I remember from my days was how often we would go out to shoot just because we had ammo the was expiring amd had to be used.  I really enjoy shooting and it happened so often, we would just throw the ammo over the side of the ship because we didn't feel like shooting anymore and having to clean the guns.

That’s just so crazy to me. I guess I understand but….

[The 12th Commandment]

14 minutes ago, The Almighty Buzz said:

 

One thing I remember from my days was how often we would go out to shoot just because we had ammo the was expiring amd had to be used.  I really enjoy shooting and it happened so often, we would just throw the ammo over the side of the ship because we didn't feel like shooting anymore and having to clean the guns.

Made me think of the literally thousands of garages and workshops across the US with tens of thousands of rounds of expired ammo because Billy Bob bought em up just before Obama was gonna take em away.  I couldn't get ammo to target shoot for years.  It's finally reasonable again.

[China]

Putin’s ‘Hunky-Dory’ Act Flops as Frantic Russians Flee Crimea

 

As Ukrainian forces gain momentum and push Russia’s military to retreat from territory stolen during the war in Ukraine this year, Moscow is working to signal that some territory it took from Ukraine is off limits.

 

Russia’s Governor for Crimea, Sergei Aksyonov, said Friday that Russia is working to fortify its defenses in Crimea, the peninsula Russia illegally annexed from Ukraine in 2014, as fears mount that Ukrainian authorities may have their sights set on seizing it back.

 

“The security of the Republic of Crimea and its inhabitants is ensured through measures taken on behalf of our President,” Aksyonov said. “The joint work of the authorities, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation and law enforcement agencies is aimed at ensuring that the Crimeans can feel calm.”

 

Despite Aksyonov’s insistence calm will reign in Crimea, civilians in Crimea have reportedly begun reading between the lines and fleeing as fears mount that Ukraine might be serious about taking Crimea back, according to Emil Ibragimov, the head of the educational platform Q-Hub. Ibragimov told Radio NV that people are fleeing to the Russian region of Krasnodar to avoid any fallout, according to Newsweek.

 

“That is, we see this trend and can conclude that this is, of course, panic and fear that the [Ukraine] Armed Forces will be able to liberate Crimea in the near future,” Ibragimov said.

 

Click on the link for the full article

[China]

Leaked FSB Letters Reveal Civil War Among Putin's Allies

 

Leaked emails from a whistleblower at Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB), shared with Newsweek, reveal a civil war among President Vladimir Putin's closest allies as his invasion of Ukraine continues to falter.

 

The agent, dubbed the Wind of Change, writes regular dispatches to Russian dissident exile Vladimir Osechkin, revealing the anger and discontent inside the FSB over the war that began when Putin invaded neighboring Ukraine on February 24.

 

Osechkin is a Russian human rights activist who runs the anti-corruption website Gulagu.net.

 

The emails were shared in full with Newsweek by Igor Sushko, the executive director of the Wind of Change Research Group, a Washington-based non-profit organization. Sushko has been translating the correspondence from Russian to English since they began on March 4.

 

Previous FSB letters authored by the whistleblower, and published by Osechkin, have been analyzed by Christo Grozev, an expert on the FSB. He said he had shown the emails to two FSB officers who had "no doubt it was written by a colleague."

 

Dated November, the agent's latest emails detail inner turmoil and conflict within the Kremlin, predicting an "inevitable" civil war, and that Russia will soon "descend into the abyss of terror" as people grow increasingly tired of the war.

 

The whistleblower focuses on Yevgeny Prigozhin, a Putin ally and founder of the mercenary outfit the Wagner Group, and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov.

 

Both Prigozhin and Kadyrov have continued to criticize how Putin's war against Ukraine is being handled, appearing to be siding with each other in rare displays of dissent, suggesting that rifts may be emerging inside the Kremlin.

 

U.S. think tank the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) also assessed in late October that Prigozhin and his military group could "pose a threat to Putin's rule."

 

The FSB agent, however, said that "there is no model of 'just changing power'" in Russia.

 

"There is no way to 'change everything' in Russia so that the country as a whole will function and does not descend into the abyss of terror," the email said, laying out how a civil war would play out in the country.

 

"In the beginning we may get a haphazard riot, with only looting and chaotic skirmishes between everyone. Let me try to explain: the struggle of security agencies against Prigozhin's structures, a real war against each other, is bad, but generally inevitable," they wrote.

 

Click on the link for the full article

[China]

Beware any calls for a 'cease fire'...

 

Putin 'wants a break' as Russia ammunition supplies into Donbass severely cut off

 

Russian forces which have withdrawn from the southern region of Kherson have now been repositioned to hold ground in the Donbass region. Moscow's troops in Donetsk are understood to be struggling to maintain their grip over the east as the Kremlin's military has consistently lacked proper training and modern weapons supplies. Ukrainian troops are challenging Russia's presence along the P66 highway, which has served as a vital line of communication for Vladimir Putin's military. Amid the ongoing military difficulties, Vladimir Putin is reported to be seeking a "break" in the conflict in a bid to strengthen the capability of Russia's armed forces.

 

Former senior military and intelligence officer Philip Ingram told Sky News: "We've had reports that the troops that were freed up from Kherson have come across the Dnipro River and moved up into the Donetsk region, which is where the Russian main effort seems to be.

 

"There has been very heavy shelling, a lot of fighting trying to capture the whole of the Donetsk Oblast and, in particular, around the village of Bakhmut - the Russians not having much success in it.

 

"They are also building their defences there and they are building their defences further north near Kreminna but the Ukrainians are attacking into the Svatove-Kreminna line."

 

Mr Ingram continued: "There's a road running down there from Russia and that is important, that's a line of communication that the Russians need to get ammunition and other supplies from Russia down to the troops in the Donbass region.

 

"Remember the bridge into Crimea has been severely hampered, if not cut [off], so the Russians are having difficulty in getting supplies into the troops that are there."

 

Mr Ingram added: "Putin wants a break. Zelensky and the Ukrainians have got the momentum at the moment and we're waiting for them to decide where they are going to carry out their next counter-offensive."

 

On Monday, the UK Ministry of Defence reported that Russian forces in the Donbass region were "hampered by severe shortage of munitions and skilled personnel".

 

Click on the link for the full article

 

 

[Riggo-toni]

 

[Larry]

Just adding, to Riggo's post?  
 

Remember. One of our political powers wants to end what's going on here. 
 

[Riggo-toni]

29 minutes ago, Larry said:

Just adding, to Riggo's post?  
 

Remember. One of our political powers wants to end what's going on here. 
 

And the irony is here in GA the MTG yard signs all say Fight Communism...

[Larry]

I used to think the biggest indicator of how stupidly Republican voters would fall for slogans that didn't make sense, by laughing at the notion that Ronald Reagan ended the Soviet Union by throwing billions of dollars at weapons that didn't work. 
 

I had this notion of Republicans imagining a meeting in the Kremlin where somebody says "Comrades, the Americans are spending billions on weapons that don't work. And we can't afford to match them. I guess we'll have to let Poland and Germany leave the USSR."

 

But it's starting to look like we might have a shot at, not ending Russia, but at least making them almost a third world country. Just by spending money on things that a lot of American companies are going to make obscene profits on. 

[visionary]