Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[tshile]

2 minutes ago, Wildbunny said:

They'll probably do as you said, but I'll hardly call that incompetence. Even if they are neighbors, you have to wonder what kind of target they were aiming at that landing in Poland...

Well - all I was trying to say was they either intended to hit poland, or they didn’t (incompetence somewhere along the way, missile design, or understanding margin of error, or just trying to be a dick and land close to the border but whoops)

 

if they can write it off as “unintentional” I think they will, even if publicly they say harsh/strong things. 

[TheGreatBuzz]

29 minutes ago, tshile said:

They might be when they realize no one wants to help them on it. 
 

I mean maybe they’ve all been itching for a mistake so they can declare war and attack russia

 

im guessing it’s the opposite and they’ll say strongly worded things publicly but ultimately nothing actually happens. 
 

Im sure there will be more sanctions or something 

 

There are a lot more options.  I could see NATO/US using this as an excuse to build up more military along the border.  They could deploy a bunch of antimissile systems to the border with a very good justification.   And at this point, what would Russia do about it?  They have to see that they are already getting their asses kicked.  Think they want to go up against NATO?

Edited November 15, 2022 by The Almighty Buzz
Spelling

[MrSilverMaC]

I guess the other thing I’m curious about is, if Poland does decide it was a act of war against them, since it was russia, doesn’t that basically mean that by default NATO has to assist them if they decide to retaliate?

 

im sure there would be a lot of countries on the NATO side telling them to chill, and I’m sure there’s language in the treaty to define an act of war, but that seems to be Polands choice at the moment.

Edited November 15, 2022 by MrSilverMaC
Effing autocorrect…

[TradeTheBeal!]

It’s fairly well understood that Xi told Putin to cool his jets with the nuclear hubbub and Vlady was quick to perform that request.  It’s also well understood that Russia couldn’t hang more than about 36 hours with NATO conventionally, at this point.

 

Hard times coming for Moscow.

[PleaseBlitz]

28 minutes ago, Jabbyrwock said:

 

I'm pretty sure the Russian KA 52 has ejection seats (this is the counter-rotating blades chopper).  Explosive charges blow the rotor blades off prior to the canopy blowing off and pilot ejection.  No idea if it actually functions and too lazy to google.

 

I knew somebody was going to take that post seriously.  SHAME ON YOU.

[Jabbyrwock]

13 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

 

I knew somebody was going to take that post seriously.  SHAME ON YOU.

 

 I mean what was I thinking being informative when there was like 30 Polish Sausage jokes just teed up beautifully for me.

 

 

[NickyJ]

It is technically Poland's call, but considering the bulk of NATO is American, Poland's call is probably only after very closely consulting with the U.S. and the biggest power players in NATO. Polish citizens will be angry that they can be killed by Russian missiles with no repercussions, but I don't expect NATO to budge an inch, just ship a few more troops to the borders to twiddle their thumbs while knowing that Russia would **** its pants if they slip up like that again.

[Peregrine]

5 hours ago, Wildbunny said:

They hardly ever had a plan A to begin with...

Hah, thats why we are sure theres no plan B.

[CousinsCowgirl84]

1 hour ago, NickyJ said:

It is technically Poland's call, but considering the bulk of NATO is American, Poland's call is probably only after very closely consulting with the U.S. and the biggest power players in NATO. Polish citizens will be angry that they can be killed by Russian missiles with no repercussions, but I don't expect NATO to budge an inch, just ship a few more troops to the borders to twiddle their thumbs while knowing that Russia would **** its pants if they slip up like that again.

I think that Poland would respond without the backing of US if they decided it was necessary. If Poland responded and then Russia launched an outright attack on Poland it would force NATO to act.

 

I don’t think it is likely though.  Also I think chinas position/involvement changes if NATO responds militarily. Mainly in the weapons department. Or maybe China is happy to see US and Russia deplete their weapons stockpiles.

Edited November 15, 2022 by CousinsCowgirl84

[Wildbunny]

2 hours ago, tshile said:

Well - all I was trying to say was they either intended to hit poland, or they didn’t (incompetence somewhere along the way, missile design, or understanding margin of error, or just trying to be a dick and land close to the border but whoops)

 

if they can write it off as “unintentional” I think they will, even if publicly they say harsh/strong things. 

Well Russia already claimed this as "provocations" from the west. So they are clearly not in the "accident" department and are not trying to deescalate this at all.

 

2 hours ago, The Almighty Buzz said:

 

There are a lot more options.  I could see NATO/US using this as an excuse to build up more military along the border.  They could deploy a bunch of antimissile systems to the border with a very good justification.   And at this point, what would Russia do about it?  They have to see that they are already getting their asses kicked.  Think they want to go up against NATO?

Anybody with an once of brain would answer "no" to that question.

Still, as I said above, Russia talked about "provocation" and are clearly not trying to deescalate, Russia One is already doubling down on this comparing it to Belgorod (like it's forbidden to strike back at your ennemy during a war..)

So anybody should answer "no", but considering the situation Putin is right now, with Wagner's boss being more and more critical and important, the answer for him might be yes. He would be able to sell the "NATO striked us" to his population and send them all against NATO/Eastern Europe.

 

Sound stupid, but Russia has not been especially smart lately.

 

2 hours ago, MrSilverMaC said:

I guess the other thing I’m curious about is, if Poland does decide it was a act of war against them, since it was russia, doesn’t that basically mean that by default NATO has to assist them if they decide to retaliate?

 

im sure there would be a lot of countries on the NATO side telling them to chill, and I’m sure there’s language in the treaty to define an act of war, but that seems to be Polands choice at the moment.

I doubt Article 5 would trigger to defend a country that is already at war. As a whole you wouldn't have a consensus within NATO, so nobody would be forced to anything. Poland as already called for Article 4, which is kinda the logical choice in this situation to consult everyone about the matter.

 

1 hour ago, NickyJ said:

It is technically Poland's call, but considering the bulk of NATO is American, Poland's call is probably only after very closely consulting with the U.S. and the biggest power players in NATO. Polish citizens will be angry that they can be killed by Russian missiles with no repercussions, but I don't expect NATO to budge an inch, just ship a few more troops to the borders to twiddle their thumbs while knowing that Russia would **** its pants if they slip up like that again.

I don't see anybody going at war without US' approval. As I've stated many times in this very thread, the only viable army in Europe is France, and we're not exactly taylored for that kind of conflict. And after 8 months of war ongoing nearby, with haven't done much changes regarding this. Poland might be home of NATO's biggest base in Europe, they are not equipped to go against Russia.

 

Ironically, that's a point where Trump was right when he urged European to increase their military participation in NATO. Nobody listened to him, but we should have.

 

50 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

I think that Poland would respond without the backing of US if they decided it was necessary. If Poland responded and then Russia launched an outright attack on Poland it would force NATO to act.

 

I don’t think it is likely though.  Also I think chinas position/involvement changes if NATO responds militarily. Mainly in the weapons department. Or maybe China is happy to see US and Russia deplete their weapons stockpiles.

If Poland decide to act by itself, or with other NATO members like Lituania, Estonia, they would do it by themselves and that's it. Russia striking back would be considered as Russia defending itself against Poland. Even if those are NATO countries. That would probably force other countries into the conflict, I guess, ultimately, but not under the NATO banner.

 

The meeting between Biden and Xi is gonna be huge here. And this strike is probably related to it. Last time China told Russia to cool down, Russia escalated it a bit more. I believe the meeting will be used to find out the limits not to cross to make sure China remains at dock.

 

I wouldn't really trust them on their word, but they could use a weakening of Russia on the international stage, as well as US being involved in a conflict. As long as China keeps quiet, we're not into WW3 territory. That would be a huge conflict in Europe, for sure, but one we should be able to win. If China decides it's time to take on the US in the Pacific and ivade Taiwan, or unleash Kim Jung Un over South Korea, it would be way different subject...

 

I'm suspecting this G20 meeting will be one to follow closely and China clearly has the best hand here.

[Gurgeh]

47 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

I think that Poland would respond without the backing of US if they decided it was necessary. If Poland responded and then Russia launched an outright attack on Poland it would force NATO to act.

 

 

It was almost certainly unintentional, in which case Poland will probably activate Article 4, which will trigger some kind of increase in allied defence of their territory. The obvious choice would be an immediate beefing up of missile defences along the borders.

 

The Russian reaction to it seems quite panicky to me, not what I'd expect if this was some really stupid idea of theirs to warn Nato off.

 

 

 

 

[FootballZombie]

I think we are gonna see more military force moved to the boarder regions.

 

We will also probably see an uptick in stuff sent to Ukraine as well. This event will further galvanize supporting them in Europe and across the globe.

If there was ever a time for Ukraine to try and get the U.S. off some ATACMS for them HIMMARS...

[DogofWar1]

Article IV (not V) meeting tomorrow on the Poland missile hits.

 

My (non-professional) guess is this was not intentional.  Russian missiles suck at aiming at stuff, they probably were tryna hit a power plant near the border and over shot.  But we'll see.

 

I don't expect Article V.  Especially bc random missile pot shots are the most Russia can do.  They have zero, zero, conventional ability to launch an invasion of the rest of Europe at the moment.  With a full withdrawal from Ukraine and 6 months they could MAYBE attack Estonia, but that's it.

 

No reason to go full bore and risk nuclear escalation.  Just send Ukraine about 500 NASAMs and start training them on Patriot systems and send those in after they're done.  Maybe start training them on F-16s and send some of those in too.  German Leopard IIs now would be good.  Just give them the weapons to keep the pressure on and let Russia keep getting pushed further and further back.

 

I don't think this was Russia purposefully trying to "draw the foul," their army is too depleted to do that.  Earlier in the war I figured they'd try and "draw the foul" but now, I think it's less likely.  But either way, intended or not, let's not let Russia draw the foul.  If NATO gets involved directly, Putin has the perfect excuse to draft the several million people eligible for mobilization he hasn't dragged in yet, and the average Russian will understand fighting against NATO directly versus fighting against Ukraine.  Their morale is low and they are in retreat.  Let's not give them a reason to rally.

[CousinsCowgirl84]

I just wonder if there will be a lot of political pressure within Poland to respond in some sort of military fashion. Seems like they were the most hawkish going in to this (understandable since Ukraine is a buffer between them and mainland Russia)

[TheGreatBuzz]

1 hour ago, DogofWar1 said:

If NATO gets involved directly, Putin has the perfect excuse to draft the several million people eligible for mobilization he hasn't dragged in yet, and the average Russian will understand fighting against NATO directly versus fighting against Ukraine.  Their morale is low and they are in retreat.  Let's not give them a reason to rally.

 

I'm surprised the level of belief people have that Putin would be safe from his own people.  I really think his generals don't want WW3 for Putin's vanity project. 

[ixcuincle]

 

[China]

 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

Hmm….  It appears the US (at least the president) doesn’t think Russia is behind the missile mishap?

[China]

1 minute ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

Hmm….  It appears the US (at least the president) doesn’t think Russia is behind the missile mishap?

 

There are Russians in Ukraine, just because they didn't come from Russia, doesn't mean the Russians didn't fire them.

[DogofWar1]

 

interesting theory

[Peregrine]

7 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said:

 

interesting theory

Thats really interesting and I think highly plausible.  We know they arent competent, and its too perfect to be just a coincidence, right?  What are the odds that with all the missiles being fired, the very first one to land outside of Ukraine happens to hit those coordinates?

I think Poland and NATO will definitely take it as justification to provide more air defenses, and call up NATO troops etc and station them on the borders.  If true its a screw up that lets NATA turn the screws a bit.

[DogofWar1]

There are some accounts, UNCONFIRMED, tweeting that US' initial assessment is that it was an air defense missile (likely S-300) launched by Ukraine that misfired and went off course and landed in Poland.

 

This is obviously unconfirmed, and the crater at the landing site was pretty big, bigger than we'd expect for an S-300, but there may be a variety of explanations for that.  We'll see.

[Wildbunny]

5 hours ago, DogofWar1 said:

I don't think this was Russia purposefully trying to "draw the foul," their army is too depleted to do that.  Earlier in the war I figured they'd try and "draw the foul" but now, I think it's less likely.  But either way, intended or not, let's not let Russia draw the foul.  If NATO gets involved directly, Putin has the perfect excuse to draft the several million people eligible for mobilization he hasn't dragged in yet, and the average Russian will understand fighting against NATO directly versus fighting against Ukraine.  Their morale is low and they are in retreat.  Let's not give them a reason to rally.

Well, you just can't come out and look flat at the same time.

NATO is now appearing on prime time for the first time in history, they just can't look like Gruden's teams on prime time.

 

That's the first time since NATO's creation that a missile ever hit a NATO country from another country. So you either look strong and competent and you're being taken seriously. Either you're a laughingstock looking like a nothingburger.

 

3 hours ago, The Almighty Buzz said:

 

I'm surprised the level of belief people have that Putin would be safe from his own people.  I really think his generals don't want WW3 for Putin's vanity project. 

I'm beginning to question what those generals really wants, because they doesn't seem to complain that much about Russia's stategy, equipment and everything that goes with it.

If they are not interested in WW3, they are clearly not showing it.

 

2 hours ago, China said:

 

There are Russians in Ukraine, just because they didn't come from Russia, doesn't mean the Russians didn't fire them.

They've also stationed troops and missiles in Belarus, so...

[DogofWar1]

Okay Zeke Miller tweeted it so while still unconfirmed, it's not complete and utter speculation by random accounts.

 

 

11 minutes ago, Wildbunny said:

Well, you just can't come out and look flat at the same time.

NATO is now appearing on prime time for the first time in history, they just can't look like Gruden's teams on prime time.

 

That's the first time since NATO's creation that a missile ever hit a NATO country from another country. So you either look strong and competent and you're being taken seriously. Either you're a laughingstock looking like a nothingburger.

 

Ehhhhh...I mean...sure...but like everyone who isn't trolling knows that NATO would pancake the entire Russian army in about 96 hours, with the first 48 being spent getting the troops into theater.  But that's precisely the problem.  Once you're in a kinetic war with Russia, you're in a kinetic war with Russia.  **** gets messy.

 

Why ramp up the risk of major nuclear escalation by getting into a direct kinetic war with Russia when you can just ship Ukraine a bunch of NASAMs and other fancy weapons and basically get the same outcome your military would have gotten (just, much slower)?

 

Mainly the big concern is to look politically united, which I think becomes at risk if you start getting close to a kinetic war.  Hungary won't be in.  Neither will Turkey.  Germany might get cold feet.  Some other nations might say no.  Then you've got a bunch of nations not invoking Art V which is probably the worst look.  Better response is to collectively promise/deliver a bunch more weapons to Ukraine to continue to be united while not forcing the kinetic issue onto the smaller states.

 

Sure, some will say that that looks weak, but those same people probably were saying "Kherson is Russia's forever" a couple weeks ago or probably were writing think pieces about how the West's weapons wouldn't help Ukraine stop the stronk Russia war machine, so we can probably just ignore them and keep blowing up all of the Russia's stuff.

[CousinsCowgirl84]

I believe it was reported that Russian genersals were even more hardlined than Putin. I think a possible significance of Biden saying this attack not coming from within Russia, say, from Belarus is that NATO might be more apt the launch a few missiles at Belarus targets because they aren’t Russia.