Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[China]

 

[EmirOfShmo]

 

[TradeTheBeal!]

 

[Switchgear]

 

 

 

Edited October 3, 2022 by Switchgear

[FootballZombie]

Taking Kherson would put various strategic points in Crimea into standard HIMARS ammo range. Gaining that would be immensely devastating to Russian supply lines on top of allowing Ukraine to easily lob precision ammunition into a previous stronghold.

 

Massive dynamic swing if they can pull it off

[DCSaints_fan]

1 hour ago, FootballZombie said:

Taking Kherson would put various strategic points in Crimea into standard HIMARS ammo range. Gaining that would be immensely devastating to Russian supply lines on top of allowing Ukraine to easily lob precision ammunition into a previous stronghold.

 

Massive dynamic swing if they can pull it off

Possibly more important is if they are able to totally eliminate the bridgehead in the region then the Dnieper is a natural geographical barrier which can be protected with a token force, and troops can be moved elsewhere, such as Zaphorhiza  (although the same goes for Russia, as well)

[LD0506]

Commissar Fired After Half of Drafted Men in Russian Region Sent Home

 

 

https://www.thedailybeast.com/commissar-fired-after-half-of-drafted-men-in-russian-region-sent-home?ref=home&fbclid=IwAR2qe7v5OBXAZIc4l-FxDn2xZdhuASCFYgGPPIOcgDgXQRUEX-pT7TWVElU

[Gurgeh]

3 hours ago, DCSaints_fan said:

Possibly more important is if they are able to totally eliminate the bridgehead in the region then the Dnieper is a natural geographical barrier which can be protected with a token force, and troops can be moved elsewhere, such as Zaphorhiza  (although the same goes for Russia, as well)

 

When it became obvious that Ukraine was going to counter-attack Kherson, the Russian military wanted to pull back across the Dnieper for that very reason, but as usual their political master refused to countenance it.

 

With that said, the terrain that the Ukrainian army is having to push through in the south is difficult enough, being very flat and exposed. In the last day or two it looks like they've made a large breakthrough along the west bank of the river, maybe as much as 20 km with some reports putting them as far down as Dudchany. It may not seem a great distance but in the context of the battle around Kherson, it's significant.

[Switchgear]

Hell of a month for Ukraine, hope they can keep it going

 

 

 

 

[China]

 

[Switchgear]

 

 

 

 

[Gurgeh]

The first bridge across that river is about 30 - 40 miles further down the bank, by a place called Kozats'ke. In that area there's also a power station and a water supply for Crimea. This is obviously going to be critical for the Russians to defend.

[China]

How the War in Ukraine Might End

 

In recent years, a small group of scholars has focussed on war-termination theory. They see reason to fear the possible outcomes in Ukraine.
 

Goemans, who now teaches political science at the University of Rochester, wrote his dissertation on war-termination theory—that is, the study of how wars end. A great deal of work, Goemans learned, had been done on how wars start, but very little on how they might conclude. There were, perhaps, historical reasons for this oversight: the nuclear armament of the United States and the Soviet Union meant that a war between them could end human civilization; not just some dying, but the death of everything. The study of war during the Cold War thus gave rise to a rich vocabulary about deterrence: direct deterrence, extended deterrence, deterrence by punishment, deterrence by denial. But the Cold War ended, and wars kept happening. Goemans saw an opportunity for an intellectual intervention.

 

Reiter, the author of “How Wars End,” was intrigued by the fact that the conflict in Ukraine was such an old-fashioned war. There was very little cyber warfare, and Russia had used just a few hypersonic missiles. He said that, on the Russian side, “it’s artillery, armor, infantry, brutality against civilians. That’s the twentieth century.” And on the Ukrainian side it was the same: “They have reasonably sophisticated weapons, coupled with enough training, coupled with a lot of bravery. Things have not changed as much as we had thought.”

 

When we first spoke, in early September, Goemans predicted a protracted conflict. None of the three main variables of war-termination theory—information, credible commitment, and domestic politics—had been resolved. Both sides still believed that they could win, and their distrust for each other was deepening by the day. As for domestic politics, Putin was exactly the sort of leader that Goemans had warned about. Despite his significant repressive apparatus, he did not have total control of the country. He kept calling the war a “special military operation” and delaying a mass mobilization, so as not to have to face domestic unrest. If he started losing, Goemans predicted, he would simply escalate.

 

And then, in the weeks after Goemans and I first spoke, events accelerated rapidly. Ukraine launched a remarkably successful counter-offensive, retaking large swaths of territory in the Kharkiv region and threatening to retake the occupied city of Kherson. Putin, as predicted, struck back, declaring a “partial mobilization” of troops and staging hasty “referendums” on joining the Russian Federation in the occupied territories. The partial mobilization was carried out in a chaotic fashion, and, as at the beginning of the war, caused tens of thousands of people to flee Russia. There were sporadic protests across the nation, and these threatened to grow in size. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces continued to advance in the east of their country.

 

In a terrifying blog post, Goemans’s former student Branislav Slantchev laid out a few potential scenarios. He believes that the Russian front in the Donbas is still in danger of imminent collapse. If this were to happen, Putin would need to escalate even further. This could take the form of more attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, but, if the goal is to stop Ukrainian advances, a likelier option would be a small tactical nuclear strike. Slantchev suggests that it would be under one kiloton—that is, about fifteen times smaller than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima. It would nonetheless be devastating, and would almost certainly lead to an intense reaction from the West. Slantchev does not think that nato would respond with nuclear strikes of its own, but it could, for example, destroy the Russian Black Sea Fleet. This could lead to yet another round of escalation. In such a situation, the West may be tempted, finally, to retreat. Slantchev urged them not to. “This is it now,” he wrote. “This is for all the marbles.”

 

Click on the link for the full analysis

[Switchgear]

 

 

 

 

[The Sisko]

On 10/3/2022 at 4:25 PM, DCSaints_fan said:

Possibly more important is if they are able to totally eliminate the bridgehead in the region then the Dnieper is a natural geographical barrier which can be protected with a token force, and troops can be moved elsewhere, such as Zaphorhiza  (although the same goes for Russia, as well)

The problem with Russia moving troops is that due to the encirclement, many of those troops will be captured or killed. Those that manage to escape will have to do so without their tanks and other heavy weapons, which, if the pattern holds, will be left mostly intact to help re-arm the Ukrainians. This is turning into a full-on fiasco for Putie. After him getting Tя☭mp elected, this feels good. [In my best Bernie Mack voice] Real good. Payback is a 🤬!

 

[China]

Ukraine's New Offensive Is Fueled by Captured Russian Weapons

 

Captured and abandoned Russian tanks, howitzers and fighting vehicles—quickly scrubbed of their Z tactical markers and repainted with Ukrainian crosses—are being turned against their former owners as Ukraine’s military advances in the eastern part of the country.

 

Ukraine’s rapid breakthrough in the Kharkiv region a month ago ended up putting hundreds of pieces of Russian armor into Kyiv’s hands, military officials say, as the Russian army left behind its heavy weapons and warehouses of supplies in a disorganized retreat.

 

Some Russian pieces of equipment were ready for immediate use, while others are being repaired to return to the front. Tanks, vehicles and guns too damaged to salvage are being cannibalized for spare parts. Crucially, Russia has also left behind large quantities of Soviet-standard artillery shells that had nearly run out in Ukraine.

 

This haul is helping power Ukrainian forces as they retake parts of the eastern Donetsk region, including the town of Lyman, and push further east into nearby Luhansk. Kyiv has regained more than 4,000 square miles of land in the east over the past month, in addition to advances in the south.

 

One Ukrainian battalion, the Carpathian Sich, seized 10 modern T-80 tanks and five 2S5 Giatsint 152-mm self-propelled howitzers after it entered the town of Izyum last month, said its deputy chief of staff, Ruslan Andriyko.

 

Click on the link for the full article

[Switchgear]

 

I do hope the Russians get "debacled", to quote a not so bright person.

 

 

 

 

 

[LD0506]

I like the "Other"

 

[ixcuincle]

 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-03/gazprom-ready-to-ship-gas-via-shelved-nord-stream-2-pipeline

 

Gazprom PJSC told European gas customers that part of the damaged Nord Stream network could still transport fuel -- but only on the new pipeline that Germany ditched in February in protest at Russia’s aggression toward Ukraine.

[DogofWar1]

So, setting aside the President's comments from yesterday, and after everyone spent a bunch of time dunking on Elon, I wonder how Russia would respond to like, a grand bargain where:

 

- Ukraine gives them a narrow land bridge to Crimea, secures water rights to Crimea, international recognition of Crimea and currently held parts of Luhansk and Donetsk provinces

- Ukraine gets EU + NATO membership

- Russia gives up Kaliningrad, the Kurill islands, and gives South Ossetia back to Georgia

 

I DON'T ENDORSE THIS PLAN, but I just wanna see Vlad's face if someone was like "sure you can have the Donbas but only if you give us Kaliningrad."

[EmirOfShmo]

 

[Wildbunny]

55 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said:

So, setting aside the President's comments from yesterday, and after everyone spent a bunch of time dunking on Elon, I wonder how Russia would respond to like, a grand bargain where:

 

- Ukraine gives them a narrow land bridge to Crimea, secures water rights to Crimea, international recognition of Crimea and currently held parts of Luhansk and Donetsk provinces

- Ukraine gets EU + NATO membership

- Russia gives up Kaliningrad, the Kurill islands, and gives South Ossetia back to Georgia

 

I DON'T ENDORSE THIS PLAN, but I just wanna see Vlad's face if someone was like "sure you can have the Donbas but only if you give us Kaliningrad."

That's usually not how they negotiate.

 

They hand you their demands.

You check boxes

If you didn't check them all they're out of it and will come back later.

 

But I like the general idea, though I would have added something like: Putin is dismissed and handcuffed in Ukraine then you can keep Crimea. Also, asks for a denuclearization of Russia. Circle would be complete.

[DCSaints_fan]

The only thing I can see Ukraine conceding this point is Crimea, and it wouldn't be a recognition but more of agreement not to contest it militarily.  I think it will difficult to retake it despite the poor performance of the Russian army, but who knows.  It would probably have to involve a total collapse of the Russian state and ensuing chaos in the Russian military.  But even in 1917 they were able to hang on for some time after the revolution with the Provisional government, it wasn't until nearly a year after that Brest-Livotsk was signed.  Any replacement government is not going to want to look weak and the hard fact is most Russian people view Crimea as an integral part of Russia, even the liberal opposition (look at Navalny's comments)

 

They won't concede a land bridge to Crimea because it runs through Mariupol.  I can't see them because conceding any other currently occupied territory they know they will eventually retake it, at the latest by the middle of next year.

[The Sisko]

4 hours ago, EmirOfShmo said:

They need to be shipped to Mexico to await their asylum hearing.