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Russian Invasion of Ukraine


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1 hour ago, Larry said:

As to the conflict between not liking invasions, but not wanting to be the world's "rent an army" (without the rent) .....

 

I keep remembering getting the impression that the way we (successfully) fought ISIL was by sending in a bunch of Green Berets, and training the local, mostly Kurds, in how to defend their own country. 
 

Yes, Russia is not ISIL. But I can't help wondering if things right now would be different, if 100 Green Berets had spent the last two years training the Ukraine Army. And maybe we had given them some defensive tech, like anti aircraft. 
 

Would it at least have raised Russia's costs?  
 

(This is also why I'm really pissed at Trump for ordering us to bail on the Kurds, too. But, history.)

 

Ukraine has been recieving training from the US for a while now.  And have even been included in NATO drills.

 

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/ukraine-holds-military-drills-with-us-forces-nato-allies-2021-09-20/

 

We've also been giving them weapons:

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-nato-ukraine-weapons-defense-russia/

 

Also in terms of problems costing less to solve if you solve them early.  In war, it is often better to give ground, let the enemy spread themselves thin.  The problem is going to costs us a lot less if the Ukraine can put a reasonable resistance and give Russia and Putin a bloody nose until he's forced to withdrawl.

 

What did in Afghanistan win the 1980s cost us a lot less than what it would have cost to put US troops on the ground to prevent the invasion of Afghanistan.

 

(There are then three issues:

 

1.  Do the Ukrainians have a similar effort in them.

2.  With new technology and the experience from the 1980s, Russia's tactics will be different.

3.  Will the world support the Ukrainian resistance after Russia has nominal control.  (and as part of that, you can believe that Russia has something in mind to stop it so what are they going to do and how are we going to respond)).

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Now that WWIII has commenced, educate me on nuclear weapons as if I’m a five year old.

 

Russia has a **** ton of nukes, I understand that.

 

I’ve also read that if Putin wants to, he can launch an attack on the U.S. and we’d (rather the targeted city) be decimated in a half hour.  Is that true?  
 

This isn’t Bay of Pigs where the attack can be launched from Cuba.  How and where would Russia launch an attack?  Would they they fly across the Atlantic and Pacific and shoot a missile with a warhead?  If so, could we shoot them down over the ocean?  
 

I’ve never given this much thought.  I understand mutual annihilation, but I don’t understand the mechanics.

 

Just trying to be able to sleep tonight.

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1 minute ago, Ball Security said:

Now that WWIII has commenced, educate me on nuclear weapons as if I’m a five year old.

 

Russia has a **** ton of nukes, I understand that.

 

I’ve also read that if Putin wants to, he can launch an attack on the U.S. and we’d (rather the targeted city) be decimated in a half hour.  Is that true?  
 

This isn’t Bay of Pigs where the attack can be launched from Cuba.  How and where would Russia launch an attack?  Would they they fly across the Atlantic and Pacific and shoot a missile with a warhead?  If so, could we shoot them down over the ocean?  
 

I’ve never given this much thought.  I understand mutual annihilation, but I don’t understand the mechanics.

 

Just trying to be able to sleep tonight.


They could theoretically have some subs parked not far off our coasts that could launch nukes but I wouldn’t bet on it.  If it were though, it could hit in less then 10 minutes.  But their sub force isn’t what it used to be.

 

ICBMs I believe would take around 45 minutes.  Doesn’t matter though.  We’d all die.

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8 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

Now that WWIII has commenced, educate me on nuclear weapons as if I’m a five year old.

 

Russia has a **** ton of nukes, I understand that.

 

I’ve also read that if Putin wants to, he can launch an attack on the U.S. and we’d (rather the targeted city) be decimated in a half hour.  Is that true?  
 

This isn’t Bay of Pigs where the attack can be launched from Cuba.  How and where would Russia launch an attack?  Would they they fly across the Atlantic and Pacific and shoot a missile with a warhead?  If so, could we shoot them down over the ocean?  
 

I’ve never given this much thought.  I understand mutual annihilation, but I don’t understand the mechanics.

 

Just trying to be able to sleep tonight.

 

ICBMs.  They actually fly over the arctic I believe.  I'm not sure of the flight time of an ICBM from the Russia to the US.  If we have the ability to shoot down Russian ICBMs, the system to do so is not public knowledge.

 

There are questions about how many functional ICBMs that Russia has, but most people seem to think enough to do quite a bit of damage.

 

 

Edited by PeterMP
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10 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

Now that WWIII has commenced, educate me on nuclear weapons as if I’m a five year old.

...

Just trying to be able to sleep tonight.

 

Ignorance is bliss.  You'll probably sleep better with less knowledge and more alcohol.  Its how I do it.

 

4 minutes ago, The Almighty Buzz said:

Doesn’t matter though.  We’d all die.

 

2 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

most people seem to think enough to do quite a bit of damage.

 

If you want to play around with some direct nuclear effects calculations:

 

https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

 

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Had CNN on for less then 3 minutes. 

 

Jus wanted to see specificly what was going on and what anyone was doing about it, and instead it was a reporter trying to rip heartstrings out showing people in subway stations to hid from bombings. 

 

Cameras jus pointing at random kids that likely didn't speak English, the only things missing was Sarah McLachlan and some SPCA music.

 

Its not that I don't care, I do, have said that repeatedly, but I turned on the news to understand more specifics about the attacks and what were doing about it. If the setup was to make us feel like crap, that worked, but if the goal is to drum up public support to do something, I don't know if that's what the news should be doing, let alone that it won't work.

 

We didn't start sending troops in World War 2 because UK was the last democracy left in Europe and getting shelled into oblivion, their citizens also hiding in subway tunnels.  It took us getting attacked ourselves to change public opinion (not that wouldve stopped FDR from responding the way he did for bombing of pearl harbor) but the overall opinion of the country towards isolation died right then and there, total 180.

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This was a good podcast to listen to.  Recorded right before the invasion.

 

She talks about the strategy of rolling sanctions.

 

Additionally, she mentioned that Biden’s speeches over the past week or so have been providing nuggets that we may have access to Putin’s internal communications.

 

Oh yeah, Putin is a big **** about COVID.

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54 minutes ago, visionary said:

 

I’m sure that if he went to Putin and said he is ready to give up his aspirations to join NATO, that he will give up his army, and that Russia can have bases Putin would stop the attack… and the West would loose.

 

I wonder how the US would react to that scenerio. Ultimately Zelensky has a duty to his people to consider if life under Putin would be better than a waging a war that they can’t win.

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12 minutes ago, The Almighty Buzz said:

 

Can anyone provide insight on the validity of these reports/sources?

The daily mail is reporting it and even more positive stuff:

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10547573/Ukraine-strikes-Kievs-troops-shoot-five-helicopters-Putins-forces-losses.html

 

A point of pride for me. My mom used to be part of the Javelin program when she worked for Raytheon.

 

I hope everyone of the 15 tank kills they generated were touched by her.

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14 minutes ago, The Almighty Buzz said:

 

Can anyone provide insight on the validity of these reports/sources?

 

3 minutes ago, EmirOfShmo said:

Hmmm....Sorry, I can't. Going forward I'll try to get something more 'official' before I post it. 

 

Don't know the validity of those reports, but I did find this from December:

 

Do Russian Military Officers Have A Morale Problem? Some Say Yes.

 

For Pavel Petrakov, a 23-year-old lieutenant in a military unit that monitors Russian aerospace defenses, the fact that the door to his officer-assigned dormitory room fell off its hinges was bad enough.

 

There were also the old bloodstains and feces on the wood floor. But the breaking point may have been the hordes of ****roaches in the communal kitchen.

 

“When I went to military school, I thought the army was cool, the officers were society’s elite,” said Petrakov, who was commissioned after graduating with honors from a prestigious St. Petersburg military academy.

 

“I never even imagined that you could drink like that and yell at children. They’re pigs at home, and they booze it up at work,” he told the North.Realities Desk of RFE/RL's Russian Service. “The most disgusting thing, because of which many flee from the army, is that they treat you like a beast.”

 

Petrakov is one of an unknown number of military officers who are resigning from duty, demoralized, or disgusted, or simply fed up by the conditions, physical and psychological, they are forced to serve in.

 

While the problem of hazing conscripts remains a stubborn and much-documented problem in Russia’s armed forces, the issue of officers resigning in protest is less well-known.

 

It comes as the Kremlin has poured billions into upgrading and modernizing the country’s arsenals and weapon systems, reorganizing command and control authorities, and trying to move away from Soviet-legacy systems of training, equipping, and housing its troops.

 

RFE/RL was unable to determine how much of a trend such resignations, in protest or otherwise, is for Russia’s armed forces. The Defense Ministry did not respond to questions from RFE/RL.

 

But, anecdotally, officers that spoke with RFE/RL say the issue is a growing problem.

 

“Of course, not all officers are drunkards," said Petrakov, who was reassigned to a unit closer to Moscow after he complained publicly and wrote a letter to military prosecutors. "There are also decent, decent people. But it seems that only loyal ones move up the career ladder, people who sign any document without actually looking at it, covering up for the bosses."

 

Click on the link for the full article

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14 minutes ago, EmirOfShmo said:

Hmmm....Sorry, I can't. Going forward I'll try to get something more 'official' before I post it. 

 

No worries.  Reports can still be accurate without being “official”.  I just wasn't’ familiar with the OP or the DailyMail and how reliable they are.

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