The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Kalu44]

Allen seems to have reversed his attitude on this team. I’d rather not trade him at this point, and create a hole at DT. His contract is also reasonable for his production. 

[SkinsFTW]

Forgot about Aiyuk. Dude is going to cost too much. Just get a rookie on a cheap deal for 4 years.

 

[Warhead36]

Just now, SkinsFTW said:

Forgot about Aiyuk. Dude is going to cost too much. Just get a rookie on a cheap deal for 4 years.

 

Yeah we're not at the stage of our team building where we can spend money on an Aiyuk

Daniels isn't Cunningham. Cunningham was like a rubber band he was so flexible and agile. I don't see that in Daniels. Kid runs upright and doesn't really have that Spider Sense of danger around him the way the really good rushers do.

[Llevron]

14 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

Mmmm, in '17 we could have gotten Mahomes, in '18 we could have gotten Allen, in '20 we could have gotten Herbert, in '21 Fields. I am ecstatic we finally got tanking for right for the first time in decades, ecstatic. I'm not so ecstatic that the rumors feel like we're gonna take the riskiest of the options. Otoh, that would have given us a huge hit in '18 and '20 so maybe they're right this time. I remain skeptical. 

I’m going to be skeptical of whoever we choose honestly. It’s just too hard to be that good in the NFL. But I’m glad we have our choice, with a real GM. We will see. I’m always ready for failure with this team truthfully 

[skinsfan66]

11 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

Mmmm, in '17 we could have gotten Mahomes, in '18 we could have gotten Allen, in '20 we could have gotten Herbert, in '21 Fields. I am ecstatic we finally got tanking for right for the first time in decades, ecstatic. I'm not so ecstatic that the rumors feel like we're gonna take the riskiest of the options. Otoh, that would have given us a huge hit in '18 and '20 so maybe they're right this time. I remain skeptical. 

You think we got it right already? I know we failed in the past only hitting on a couple LT's. I have more faith in this front office though.

[The Consigliere]

39 minutes ago, skinsfan66 said:

Did he really play at 210 this year? I have my doubt's. 

There is no chance. Those of us that eye RB weigh ins pre-combine are more than familiar with funny bs weigh ins. My guess would be his playing weight last year was in that 190-200 window, probably 195-200. 

22 minutes ago, Kalu44 said:

Allen seems to have reversed his attitude on this team. I’d rather not trade him at this point, and create a hole at DT. His contract is also reasonable for his production. 

I would trade him but it seems pretty obvious that if he's traded, it probably isn't until deadline this coming fall of the '25 offseason, if he was gonna be moved, it would have happened a month ago. In fairness (I am a trade Allen guy) to those that want to keep him: evaluating DL prospects will be made harder by going from Allen to JAG level trash at his position so there's that, but I'm also not convinced we'll be addressing say, edge guys this year. The class is simply too weak to justify the use of high end draft capital. 

[The Consigliere]

9 minutes ago, skinsfan66 said:

You think we got it right already? I know we failed in the past only hitting on a couple LT's. I have more faith in this front office though.

We got the tank right. The pick? Sounds like we're getting it wrong, just in terms of the taking the "least" bust potential of potential options. But the tanking piece? There wasn't a better season to implode the past decade than this one, and it would rank in the top 2-3 of the past 20 years as well. After Halloween I think most would have put us at +2500 to earn a top 2 pick, maybe +5000, we did literally everything perfectly to snatch up that top 2 pick thereafter while the Giants, Cardinals, and Patriots (and Bears for that matter) all butchered their tanks. 

[CommanderInTheRye]

1 hour ago, HTTRDynasty said:

The good thing is that if anyone from outside the Niners org knows his actual worth, it would be Peters. 
 

If we draft Daniels, we need to be as aggressive as possible surrounding him with great WRs. This would get us most of the way there. 

 

 

Wouldn't it be ironic if we end up with both players from the now  "legendary tale" that supposedly Erick Bickel's son's anonymous "friend" told to Bickel's son who then told his dad, Eric Bickle, who then blasted it over the airwaves without bothering to authenticating it first, that Jayden Daniels had asked his best friend at ASU, Brandon Aiyuk,  to in turn ask Adam Peters, who was Aiyuk's assistant GM at San Francisco at the time, where he thought Jayden would be drafted, if he declared for the draft in 2023?

 

Yes, that's exactly what's alleged to have occurred and man that's one hell of a mouthful.

 

I dare anyone to look in the mirrrror and say the first paragraph above three times fast.

 

Legend has it, that if you say it correctly, Jimmy Hoffa and Amelia Earhart will appear right behind you and tell you what really happened to them, but if you fail you will share their fate.

 

Edited April 14 by CommanderInTheRye

[CommanderInTheRye]

2 hours ago, ntotoro said:

Daniels is constructed like one of those kites you buy at People's Drug Store as a kid and no amount of gym time can change that. 

 

 

Oh my, People's Drug Store!!

 

That brings back old memories.

 

Used to love their lunch counters. They had great ice cream sodas, milk shakes, fries, real BBQ samiches, if you were famished just get an open faced turkey sandwuch with gravy, stuffing, real mashed potatoes and granny's gravy-- served on a platter!

 

And best if all they had some kind of sandwich they made with seasoned ground beef on a bun that was so damn good, it was kind of like a sloppy Joe without the barbecue sauce. It sounds terrible but it was hella good.

 

That was back in the day when a dollar bought you lunch along with a tip for the waitress.

 

-sigh-

 

 

Edited April 14 by CommanderInTheRye

[DogofWar1]

 

Boof

[Going Commando]

Watched Brian Thomas's targets from last season, and there were only a couple where Jayden threw to him at the field side flat from the far hashes.  But when he did, that ball took a loooong time to arrive.  Jayden has a quick release but he does not have anywhere near Maye's arm talent.  He has no strength in his game.  If he doesn't get to load up on deep throws, the placement is usually off and he puts his WRs to work tracking the ball down.  The concerning part is how many vertical throws end up short or back inside of the WR, because those are going to turn into picks in NFL windows.  He's also habitually late on crossers and too many of those end up being behind.  He's throwing them to the big versions of Tyreek Hill and Devonta Smith.  That ball needs to be in front of them.  A reason he avoided the middle of the field, even when he had really big openings, is because he put the ball behind on those throws so much.

 

The more I watch him, the crazier the groupthink feels about him to me.  It is astounding to me that so many people think he's better than Maye.

[SkinsFTW]

19 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

The more I watch him, the crazier the groupthink feels about him to me.  It is astounding to me that so many people think he's better than Maye.

 

If thet draft Daniels they'll end up resorting to the Alex Smith dink and dunk offense because he's going to run or get sacked 2/3s of the time they try to go down the field. (Maybe not quite that much but he's going to take a lot of crazy hits)

Edited April 14 by SkinsFTW

[ntotoro]

37 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

 

 

Oh my, People's Drug Store!!

 

That brings back old memories.

 

Used to love their lunch counters. They had great ice cream sodas, milk shakes, fries, real BBQ samiches, if you were famished just get an open faced turkey sandwuch with gravy, stuffing, real mashed potatoes and granny's gravy-- served on a platter!

 

And best if all they had some kind of sandwich they made with seasoned ground beef on a bun that was so damn good, it was kind of like a sloppy Joe without the barbecue sauce. It sounds terrible but it was hella good.

 

That was back in the day when a dollar bought you lunch along with a tip for the waitress.

 

-sigh-

 

 

I always think of the People's in Yorktown Shopping Center (now a CVS... intersection of 50 & Gallows in Falls Church) when I was a kid. My dad has a barber shop there. I got fat from burgers at the diner in the drug store LOL!

[redskinss]

Randall Cunningham spent the last ten years of his career averaging about 1200 yards a season because he wasn't hardly playing at all and Ben Roethlisberger was throwing for 4 to 5000 yards a season 15 years into his career despite all the injuries. 

 

This is a fantastic example of why I want the guy who is less likely to flash in the pan and burn out.

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, Est.1974 said:

For all of the recent noise, if I was pushed for an answer right now, I’d still ‘guess’ this FO preferred Maye over Daniels.

 

All it could be at this point is pure gut from any of us.  My pure gut is it could go either way.  50-50.

 

Was listening to Standig in two different segments about his Athletic article about what personnel-coaches prefer where he expounded a bit more than the article.

 

He said he talked to a lot of people.  As to Maye, he had the most variance in the people he talked to including the most fears of him busting.  He said even the ones who are high on him they felt he was the one needing more development and should sit on the bench for year 1. Daniels seems like was more consistent as to these guys liking (aside from Caleb) hence I gather his higher rankings was predicated by that.

 

Keim, Schefter points if they had to predict it this team would take Daniels -- but explain that its predicated by they talked to a lot of people with takes on this versus FO leaks.  In Keim's cases mostly coaches.  In Schefter's case mostly FO people and they overwhelmingly prefer Daniels.  So they think why wouldn't Peters too?  But also that they don't know if Peters goes with the herd on this decision.   He may or may not.

 

But if I am just digesting narratives, I would gather how they feel about Maye is predicated by how risky they think his bust factor is.  If they see him as all upside with almost no concerns as many think on the thread, then I think they take Maye.  If they are concerned with bust factor, maybe they take Daniels.  Not saying they aren't intrigued by Daniels' upside.  I got no idea.  But it feels like Maye is the best with the most variance and we don't know where this team of course falls on that spectrum.

 

 

Hayden Winks who is a Maye guy, mentioned this in his mock.  I know not all anayltics types prefer Maye, seems to be a mixed bag depending on the source.  PFF -- pro Maye, ex-Football Outsiders guy pro Daniels -- Warren Sharp pro Daniels.  But I got no idea what anayltics they are referring to below.

 

https://underdognetwork.com/football/nfl-draft/2024-nfl-mock-draft-with-updates-from-adam-schefter

 

...His production is rare, and this ownership and front office have a basketball and analytics background that could favor Daniels' stats. If they want to let Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson run go balls and slot fades, then Daniels is a scheme fit. At the same time, Kliff Kingsbury has ties to Drake Maye through Air Raid OC Phil Longo who coached at North Carolina when Maye led college football in Total EPA. This isn't a done deal yet, but I'll stick with Schefter and the markets for now. Daniels is -165 to be the 2nd overall pick.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 14 by Skinsinparadise

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

[ST_DaGoat21]

58 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

Watched Brian Thomas's targets from last season, and there were only a couple where Jayden threw to him at the field side flat from the far hashes.  But when he did, that ball took a loooong time to arrive.  Jayden has a quick release but he does not have anywhere near Maye's arm talent.  He has no strength in his game.  If he doesn't get to load up on deep throws, the placement is usually off and he puts his WRs to work tracking the ball down.  The concerning part is how many vertical throws end up short or back inside of the WR, because those are going to turn into picks in NFL windows.  He's also habitually late on crossers and too many of those end up being behind.  He's throwing them to the big versions of Tyreek Hill and Devonta Smith.  That ball needs to be in front of them.  A reason he avoided the middle of the field, even when he had really big openings, is because he put the ball behind on those throws so much.

 

The more I watch him, the crazier the groupthink feels about him to me.  It is astounding to me that so many people think he's better than Maye.

I’m in the same boat.  I just don’t see it with Jayden from an arm talent perspective.  It boggles my mind how there are so many former coaches/players that I respect, have him as their #2 qb.  Yes, he is an electric runner,  but I’m just not impressed with the throws that he completes.  It’s just so many hitches and fades with hardly any tight window throws.  And yes, I have watched every pass of his from last year multiple times!
 

I just watched all of McCarthy’s passes and runs from last year and I have to admit, I’m kind of warming up to him.  Definitely prefer him now compared to Jayden.  Dude is really accurate and mechanically sound.  I know he didn’t throw a ton last year, but he completed so many NFL caliber throws in tight windows!   My only concern with him is that it seems like he only has 1 speed for his passes;  so many laser beams!  If he can incorporate some touch passes, he pretty much has everything you would want in a starting qb.  
 

 

I think my final qb rankings will be:

1. Caleb

2a. Drake

2b. McCarthy

4. Jayden

5. Penix

6. Nix

[Rufus T Firefly]

1 hour ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

 

 

Wouldn't it be ironic if we end up with both players from the now  "legendary tale" that supposedly Erick Bickel's son's anonymous "friend" told to Bickel's son who then told his dad, Eric Bickle, who then blasted it over the airwaves without bothering to authenticating it first, that Jayden Daniels had asked his best friend at ASU, Brandon Aiyuk,  to in turn ask Adam Peters, who was Aiyuk's assistant GM at San Francisco at the time, where he thought Jayden would be drafted, if he declared for the draft in 2023?

 

Yes, that's exactly what's alleged to have occurred and man that's one hell of a mouthful.

 

I dare anyone to look in the mirrrror and say the first paragraph above three times fast.

 

Legend has it, that if you say it correctly, Jimmy Hoffa and Amelia Earhart will appear right behind you and tell you what really happened to them, but if you fail you will share their fate.

 

I literally have zero idea what that story is. It feels like the verbal equivalent of a Rorschach test.  

[srtman04]

1 hour ago, DogofWar1 said:

 

Boof

 

I thought Kirk cousins or RG3 threw for over 30?

Edited April 14 by srtman04

[oraphus]

I disagree with Keim, its ridiculous to think that this FO was not ~80% sure which QB they are targeting at #2 before a single visit or combine. The rest of the time was used to just confirm that decision and look for any major red flags.. that decision should have been hopefully confirmed as i haven't heard anything bad about Maye.  Most of the info is already out there via game tape and not based on a 30min scripted combine work. 

And none of these pundits know anything... because with a solid and professional FO this info does NOT escape. What FOs do is disseminate misinformation with a the hope of some dumb GMs listening and letting players slip. Which sounds like the campaign against Maye over the last few weeks. 

 

One thing i do know.. with the moves from this org so far I am just 'cautiously neutral' and after watching idiot Ron fumble through the draft over the last 4 years this FO has to knock it out of the park in this upcoming draft to set this franchise up big for years to come. 

[e16bball]

2 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

and it was already quoted a few pages back is how often (always) when NFL exec's are asked about Daniels, they refer EXCLUSIVELY to his 5th year metrics, not his career, his fifth year metrics

This is the part I wish some of these folks would at least acknowledge. 
 

Just come out and say that you’re forming this preference based on 11 games. Or 12, since they all have learned that he torched Oregon as a freshman. You’re forming your opinion based almost entirely on 20% of the much ballyhooed 55 starts that helped him learn to be the best. 

 

Because no one wanted Jayden Daniels after the Florida State game this year. He had 45 starts under his belt at that point, and not a soul saw this brilliance simmering under the surface. He was in the mix with guys like Spencer Rattler and Michael Pratt and Devin Leary and Jordan Travis for Day 3 consideration. And the lightbulb goes on for 10 games and the choir of angels is singing in the background of his film. 
 

And now he’s firmly ahead of Drake Maye. Who has somehow, and I’m not kidding about this, seen his stock plummet based on his last two games. Don’t believe me? After his first 10 games of 2023, he was sitting at 65.8% and 9.0 YPA, with a 157.4 passer efficiency rating — slightly lower completion percentage, significantly higher YPA, basically identical efficiency as compared to his first season. In a new system, with worse receivers and worse OL play. He has a mediocre game and a bad game on the way out, and the narrative becomes “Drake took a big step back in his second year.”

 

If you only watched these guys from late September until late November 2023, sure…you could absolutely conclude that Jayden is the better player and even the better prospect. But you’d be totally ignoring years worth of data, years when there was absolutely thought of Jayden being an elite prospect or being ahead of Maye. Which, I think, is why a lot of us who didn’t just start following these prospects in January are a bit confused.

Edited April 14 by e16bball

[Tress Is The Way]

4 minutes ago, srtman04 said:

 

I thought Kirk cousins or RG3 threw for over 30?

RG3 threw 20 in 2012 his highest of his career. Kirk threw 29 in 2015, his highest in Washington

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

On 4/13/2024 at 12:09 PM, wit33 said:

I’m currently delving into the concept of anticipatory throws in football, exploring their frequency and importance in games. I’m at the early stages of self-learning and would appreciate if anyone could share examples of NFL quarterbacks consistently making anticipatory throws during games.

 

Starting with an elite quarterback like Patrick Mahomes, I watched a 3-minute video showcasing 18 completions he made in an AFC Championship game, which many regard as a flawless first half. However, I struggled to identify a throw that exemplified anticipatory timing, although I acknowledge I may be mistaken in my understanding.

 

Hers the three minute clip for those willing to indulge:

 

https://www.chiefs.com/video/every-completion-from-patrick-mahomes-near-perfect-first-half-chiefs-vs-bengals

 

 

 

I admit my bias and recognize that there may be conflicting definitions of what constitutes an anticipatory throw among those here, but I'm open to learning and being corrected.

 

Peyton Manning. That was a big part of what made him deadly.

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

Can we all agree that a common trait that many, If not all of the top quarterbacks in the league have is the ability to escape pressure and make throws off schedule? The guy in KC that everybody thinks is good, that’s the thing he does better than anyone and that’s the big attraction with Caleb Williams, right?

 

And can we agree that all of the guys who can do this, demonstrated the ability to do it in college?
 

And then can we agree that Jayden Daniels has not demonstrated the ability to do this in college?

[The Consigliere]

34 minutes ago, e16bball said:

This is the part I wish some of these folks would at least acknowledge. 
 

Just come out and say that you’re forming this preference based on 11 games. Or 12, since they all have learned that he torched Oregon as a freshman. You’re forming your opinion based almost entirely on 20% of the much ballyhooed 55 starts that helped him learn to be the best. 

 

Because no one wanted Jayden Daniels after the Florida State game this year. He had 45 starts under his belt at that point, and not a soul saw this brilliance simmering under the surface. He was in the mix with guys like Spencer Rattler and Michael Pratt and Devin Leary and Jordan Travis for Day 3 consideration. And the lightbulb goes on for 10 games and the choir of angels is singing in the background of his film. 
 

And now he’s firmly ahead of Drake Maye. Who has somehow, and I’m not kidding about this, seen his stock plummet based on his last two games. Don’t believe me? After his first 10 games of 2023, he was sitting at 65.8% and 9.0 YPA, with a 157.4 passer efficiency rating — slightly lower completion percentage, significantly higher YPA, basically identical efficiency as compared to his first season. In a new system, with worse receivers and worse OL play. He has a mediocre game and a bad game on the way out, and the narrative becomes “Drake took a big step back in his second year.”

 

If you only watched these guys from late September until late November 2023, sure…you could absolutely conclude that Jayden is the better player and even the better prospect. But you’d be totally ignoring years worth of data, years when there was absolutely thought of Jayden being an elite prospect or being ahead of Maye. Which, I think, is why a lot of us who didn’t just start following these prospects in January are a bit confused.

Yep.

 

And it's impossible not to notice when you look at this stuff, stories like Marino tumbling down boards while guys like Zach Wilson, and Kenny Pickett and JaMarcus Russell flew up then, considering this is an antique form of social media, nearly all of us are old and have seen this countless times before. Is he gonna yet another in a long line of wtf were they thinking guys? There's a much higher chance of that w/him than wil Caleb and Drake. Is there a genuine risk that Drake is an arm talent flame out that doesn't improve? Sure....but the way the media and the quoted NFL officials are consistently ignoring this guy was a day 2/day 3 pick for YEARS, and suddenly with absurd talent and flagship offense LSU, after 4 years that didn't even put him in anyones top 60, he's now top 2? It's hard not to understand why that strikes many of us as insane. Then, after that, you can also build a case with a litany of metrics which are hugely alarming from pressure to sack ratio to completion rate when off platform, to deep ball completion rate in 80% of his college seasons (as in, largely, ---), the progressions, the run instead of stick and throw, or run and throw, not using all fields...we could go on and on. Again, feels like crazy pills. I'm torn between the part of me that wants to buy what they're selling since it sounds like we're taking him, and the part of me that thinks this is clinically insane and obviously so, that year after year the media and officials talk up guys, Bryce Young and the S2 last year (nobody mentioning either now, suddenly they forgot all about it), Kenny and Malik and Corral in '22, Lance and Mac Jones and Wilson in '21, Herbert is a mess and will take forever to fix in '20, Danny Nickels is the hot new QB in '19, the Rosen and Darnold stock I was eating up in '18, the Trubisky insanity of '17, the wentz hype train in '16, the Mariota praise in '15, the Bortles insanity before that (my stupid, but oft-accurate, "I can't see a guy named blake and Blaine winning super bowls," take still holds). Goes on and on and on....every season they sell us on guys that at least a portion of the public rightly sniffs out as utter nonsense. This time its Daniels, JJ and Drake and trying to figure out which narrative and pile of evidence, illustrates the most likely bust. The overage, 5th year senior who was nothing for 4 according to scouts, the guy who was barely used at Michigan but may actually be really good? The Golden Arm and height/size adonis, but mechanical train wreck? Who knows....but I know if I was betting on whose got the biggest chance of flaming out, I'd start with Daniels simply because of the boxes checked, with JJ close behind. 

Edited April 14 by The Consigliere