The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Voice_of_Reason]

31 minutes ago, bonhommelemec said:

https://theathletic.com/5314638/2024/03/05/drake-maye-vs-jayden-daniels-film-review/

 

I like this article by the Athletic. It seems to be very objective. Ultimately, they give the edge to Maye's.

 

I agree with the author.  Imo, if we do not draft Maye's, we could miss out on another Josh Allen. He had better potential than results in the college ranks. I really believe that Maye's will end up being better in the pro's than even Caleb.

Didn't this come out a week or two ago?  Bram read a lot of it on his show.

 

Oddly, the former GM the Athletic has on staff, Mueller, is extraordinarily down on Maye.  Take it for what it's worth, he's predicted a few things this off-season right, others wrong.

 

Mueller was right that he thought somebody would pick up Charles.  So I'll give him that.  

1 hour ago, HTTRDynasty said:

This person is claiming to be a former NFL executive and wants to remain anonymous… so take it FWIW:

I'm not sure I buy this is anything other than a fake account by any random person pretending to be a former NFL Executive "with knowledge of the situation."

 

I also don't know how anybody not in the Bear's organization would know the Bear's draft board.

 

I don't know how anybody outside the Washington organization would know the Commander's draft board.

 

I think there is some "connect the dots to seem reasonable, and when the reasonable happens, claim victory and say how smart you are" going on.

 

So, I don't trust the source at all.

 

I do, however, think the points he makes are reasonable.  I don't think the Bears would go with another dual-threat QB if for some reason they don't draft Williams.

 

I do think the Commanders are going to draft Maye

 

I wouldn't be surprised if Daniels is the draft day dropper, mostly because of his playing style and size combination.  

 

That said, I would also be surprised about JJ rising because I don't see what others see.  But who knows.  Maybe he's a diamond in the rough.

[Command The 414]

It wouldn’t be a surprise to a lot of ppl if after McCarthy’s Pro Day he wasn’t the 3rd QB selected and in a weird world could even move to 2…. Talk about this board exploding if that happened…. grabbing my Popcorn now to sit and wait for responses if that were to happen…

[Koolblue13]

5 minutes ago, Command The 414 said:

It wouldn’t be a surprise to a lot of ppl if after McCarthy’s Pro Day he wasn’t the 3rd QB selected and in a weird world could even move to 2…. Talk about this board exploding if that happened…. grabbing my Popcorn now to sit and wait for responses if that were to happen…

I'd be cool with it. Nix and Daniels are the only two I'm 100% out on. I'd be cool with JJ.

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, HTTRDynasty said:

This person is claiming to be a former NFL executive and wants to remain anonymous… so take it FWIW:

 

I believe they had this first:

 

I am seeing more and more stuff about JJ going over Daniels now. Daniels is still my 3. But him refusing to measure at the combine, his sack rate and his unwillingness to throw into tight windows does have me wondering if I am wrong. 

Edited March 17 by clskinsfan

[Warhead36]

If Vikes trade up to 3 for JJ theyre all getting fired

[wit33]

I hope some retired elite dual-threat QBs start breaking down film and sharing their perspectives, or maybe I just haven't come across it yet. We definitely need much more diversity in analyzing these dudes, and it would be great to hear from GMs who've had success with this running QBs. 
 

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

15 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

If Vikes trade up to 3 for JJ theyre all getting fired

I wouldn't put it past them.

 

Look, I know Daniels is the media darling.  And he might be our pick.

 

But his combination of lack of size + the fact he has to be used as a dual threat QB might scare a lot of teams away.  

 

I actually would really like to point and laugh at a lot of the draftnik's love affair with Daniels if he drops.  Even to number 5.  Though, that would mean I underestimated how teams, or at least one team, viewed McCarthy.

 

It would be wild if Daniels fell like a stone into the teens.  I don't think that will happen.  But his size + lack of top-end arm talent could scare GMs away.  

 

Or we could draft him at #2.

 

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 minute ago, wit33 said:

I hope some retired elite dual-threat QBs start breaking down film and sharing their perspectives, or maybe I just haven't come across it yet. We definitely need much more diversity in analyzing these dudes, and it would be great to hear from GMs who've had success with this running QBs. 
 

 

Who are the successful dual-threat QBs?  

 

Currently:

Lamar Jackson

Jalen Hurts

 

Who else currently or has been?

Russell Wilson is a tough one to quantify.  He was extremely athletic early in his career.  And he had some really good rushing seasons.  But he seemed to be a passer first, runner second.  But he ran a lot when plays broke down.

Cam Newton for about 4 seasons before he broke down.

Griffin for a season?

Collin Kaepernick for a hot second.  Then he got hurt and then the "stuff" happened.

Murray was a dual-threat QB, but hasn't been great and been hurt a lot.

Fields was a dual threat QB who's been actively bad.

 

What people want right now seems not to be a dual threat QB, but a QB with a lot of athleticism who can win from inside the pocket within the structure of the offense, but when things go sideways, able to extend plays and pick up yards with their legs. Mahomes, Allen, Herbert are all great at that.  Burrow is good at it, but not as athletic.  Watson WAS good at it, but don't know what he's good at anymore.  

 

Before Mahomes, this was Rodgers and Favre and Elway.

 

It's not a new concept: Get a guy who can win from the pocket, but can also make things happen with his legs if needed.

 

There was a short trend with Griffin, Russell Wilson, Cam Newton and Collin Kaepernick where it was very in-vogue to really go after dual threat guys.

 

That trend has waned over the last 4-5 years.  

 

** I'm sure I'm missing some. 

[Jumbo]

Picking a QB, even in the top three, and building a top ten roster and having solid coaching still leaves meeting every teams stated goal of winning a Lombardi as the only "true success" a longshot.

 

When I parse the styles of QB play in relation to that goal it doesn't make it any easier.

 

Just in recent years, we've had SF going several seasons in a row with a classic "game manager" type (yes, drafted as low as it gets) who also has pretty decent (just decent) mobility as a runner on a team with excellent coaching and a stacked roster on both sides of the ball, yet they couldn't get over the hurdle.

 

We've also had one of the best "dual threat" QBs in many years with solid coaches, .f.o., and a stacked roster on both sides also fail to get there. 

 

We've had one of the greatest pure passers ever to play who won one Lombardi for a perennial powerhouse team in twelve seasons.

 

The two QBs and their perspective situations that have won multiples and are arguably the two goats of all time to date are unicorns who, with their teams and coaches, have found different ways to win a season again and again.

 

Moral, there are no sure bets or even safe bets when it comes to achieving that goal and prioritizing a certain shiny QBs "style." But if you don't take your best swings at drafting a QB when you have a top pick you're limiting what chances you have.

 

I don't care too much about the preferred style or type of qb arguments as much as I care about having an appropriate roster structure for him and the overall football smarts of the people making the pick (and the vagaries of good fortune which we can do little about beyond hoping are choosers are making the smartest pick possible in an overall sense).

[DogofWar1]

31 minutes ago, wit33 said:

I hope some retired elite dual-threat QBs start breaking down film and sharing their perspectives, or maybe I just haven't come across it yet. We definitely need much more diversity in analyzing these dudes, and it would be great to hear from GMs who've had success with this running QBs. 
 

 

 

The pool of such guys is.....shallow.  I suppose it kinda depends on how you define Dual Threat but if you're talking about Lamar Jackson level dudes who run for 600+ yards consistently, and often quite a bit more, it's...almost no one.

 

Randall Cunningham and Michael Vick are probably the only 2 I would count without some qualifier, but then of course, no one is exactly tripping over themselves for Vick's opinion.

 

Guys like Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper, and Steve Young can qualify if we broaden the definition a bit but they weren't running as much.  They were a running threat but it wasn't nearly as much a core component of their game.

 

So unfortunately there aren't a ton of retired elite dual-threat QBs out there to break down film.

[Skins199021]

For me I just don’t see Daniels has as just some runner that can’t pass all that well

 

I say that because he had 57 TDs, 7 Ints, with a 70% completion % over his last two seasons in the SEC

Jaylen Hurts is a terrible comparison as Daniels is by far a better passer coming out of college 

 

[Dirt]

1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Didn't this come out a week or two ago?  Bram read a lot of it on his show.

 

Oddly, the former GM the Athletic has on staff, Mueller, is extraordinarily down on Maye.  Take it for what it's worth, he's predicted a few things this off-season right, others wrong.

 

Mueller was right that he thought somebody would pick up Charles.  So I'll give him that.  

I'm not sure I buy this is anything other than a fake account by any random person pretending to be a former NFL Executive "with knowledge of the situation."

 

I also don't know how anybody not in the Bear's organization would know the Bear's draft board.

 

I don't know how anybody outside the Washington organization would know the Commander's draft board.

 

I think there is some "connect the dots to seem reasonable, and when the reasonable happens, claim victory and say how smart you are" going on.

 

So, I don't trust the source at all.

 

I do, however, think the points he makes are reasonable.  I don't think the Bears would go with another dual-threat QB if for some reason they don't draft Williams.

 

I do think the Commanders are going to draft Maye

 

I wouldn't be surprised if Daniels is the draft day dropper, mostly because of his playing style and size combination.  

 

That said, I would also be surprised about JJ rising because I don't see what others see.  But who knows.  Maybe he's a diamond in the rough.

My main bull**** call on this "executive" is the tweet saying "yeah I'm gonna deactivate, this is too risky".  Someone truly in that position wouldn't say that, they would just do it.  That said, it seems he called the Fields Pittsburg thing?  Or was that tweet one second after it happened.  

 

Whatever the case, I agree what he's saying makes sense.  I think the Daniels hype is just that. Wouldn't be surprised if he falls a bit.  

[HTTRDynasty]

 

[redskinss]

17 minutes ago, Skins199021 said:

For me I just don’t see Daniels has as just some runner that can’t pass all that well

 

I say that because he had 57 TDs, 7 Ints, with a 70% completion % over his last two seasons in the SEC

Jaylen Hurts is a terrible comparison as Daniels is by far a better passer coming out of college 

 

 

If you want to use stats and cherry pick you can make all sorts of fair comparisons. 

 

Hurts last year in college he had the same amount of passing yards as daniels similar completion percentage and more rushing yards and as far as good versus bad comparisons go I'd stick with hurts because he's had some sustained success in the nfl.

A much better comparison is rg3 which is the number one number two and number 3 reasons a lot of us are very skeptical of daniels.

 

Their last two years in college produced very similar results statistically.

 

they both throw very good deep balls and they both have/had the same perceived strengths and weaknesses coming out of college.

Once rg3 lost his running ability his weaknesses as a passer were exposed badly and he couldn't even make it as a backup anymore. 

 

Rg3 was an elite prospect that we were all very excited about as is daniels but as v.o.r put it beautifully I still have rg3 ptsd and aren't anywhere near as excited about his doppelganger as I was about him.

[Jags]

58 minutes ago, Jumbo said:

Just in recent years, we've had SF going several seasons in a row with a classic "game manager" type (yes, drafted as low as it gets) who also has pretty decent (just decent) mobility as a runner on a team with excellent coaching and a stacked roster on both sides of the ball, yet they couldn't get over the hurdle.

 

We've also had one of the best "dual threat" QBs in many years with solid coaches, .f.o., and a stacked roster on both sides also fail to get there. 

 

We've had one of the greatest pure passers ever to play who won one Lombardi for a perennial powerhouse team in twelve seasons.

 

I think some of these things are mitigated by the reality of their situations.  You can say that a team failed to "get over the hurdle" but when that hurdle is the Mahomes/Reid Chiefs, you've gotta give a lot of that credit to the Chiefs.  That particular hurdle is 12 feet high and wrapped in electrified barbed wire, y'know?

 

Jackson's had to clear that same hurdle, and Hurts didn't get knocked out by nobody.  Manning's hurdle being Brady/Belichick was often just as or more insurmountable.  

 

So I don't know how many of those are pure failures, or just the whole NBA appearing to suck whenever Jordan wanted a title.  Lots of great players and teams barely sniffed a championship and never won because of the Bulls.  Didn't make those players, coaches, or "styles" any less great.  They just weren't enough to topple the best ever.

 

What we're seeing in the NFL is the parity of the cap era.  Every team can build a winner and many prove it every year.  I don't think a particular style of QB play can't win it just because they can't unseat ridiculous generational greatness combined with brilliantly assembled teams.  Marino could have had a ring for every finger if he played for an organization willing to build a team around him.  Elway was the same story until they finally gave him a team at the very end.  I don't think Montana would have had even remotely similar success as a Dolphin.

 

A lot of the best examples of great teams or players not getting over the hump just boiled down to unfortunate circumstances.  Sometimes the other team was built a hair better, and sometimes the ball just bounces weird that day.  *shrug*

[Voice_of_Reason]

[illone]

Just a fun little wager…

 

[The Consigliere]

On 3/16/2024 at 2:31 PM, Going Commando said:

 

You're not crazy.  I like Penix over Daniels too.  He's playing with a stacked set of weapons and a Joe Moore line too, but I think his playmaking translates better to the NFL.  I agree that he sees the field better than Daniels and is a better decision maker.  And mainly I think he's got a way better body and arm than Daniels.  He's a power thrower and he has spectacular touch.  Doesn't have to load up at all, can lean back and just smoke it or fade it 30 yards down field with perfect touch.  And he has awesome pocket mobility with really great feel for the rush.  He's instinctive, and he's a star where, as with Maye and Williams, the burden of offensive creation was on him, making advanced NFL style plays from the pocket.  This is not true for Nix/Daniels/McCarthy.

 

I just rewatched the LSU-Florida State game and was shocked at how slow Daniels's far hash come backs were.  His receivers are just sitting still waiting on him to pull the trigger, and then waiting even longer for the ball to finally show up.  Jayden just doesn't have any playing strength, not in his core, not in his arm, and not in his legs.  If you don't have any power, then you have to be elite with your instincts and ****ing fly through your reads and anticipate, which he doesn't do either.  That's why the kid didn't make any plays outside of the run game until he was a fifth year senior playing in a pristine pocket and getting a ton of wide open looks every game.

 

There is no chance I would pick Penix over Maye, but if we weren't in position to draft Maye, I agree with you that I would prefer trading back and getting Penix to drafting Daniels in the top five, much less trading up for Daniels.  I like him way better than JJ McCarthy too, FWIW.  But I honestly have no idea where he's going to be drafted, because that right knee is probably cooked.  He could go in the first round, or he could go in the fourth.  But a healthy Penix Jr feels like a peer to Maye and Williams, and it wouldn't surprise me if he stays healthy at the next level and ends up being the best QB from the class.  Probably going to be the best QB from the group right out of the gate, if they all get drafted into decent situations.  He sees the game and reads it so much faster than the other guys do right now, and his bag of tools and tricks is ready to go year one.

I want to point out that I would still take Daniels if he were at 3 because of the clean medicals, and the age being better and the ceiling, but I do think that the Penix argument, which I've really only heard from Carnack over at CPND, is one that's very, very overlooked, the problem is the caveats ARE ENORMOUS CAVEATS. He could not stay healthy in college and he's too old as a prospect, you're basically throwing away 2 to 3 years of a career if he hits as compared to Maye. I have a major problem with that, but his CV is deeply impressive. Some people just look at the national championship and wrote him off and I am utterly baffled by it. This is a guy with a 5 year career like Daniels, but he was damn good from the jump, especially by year 2, and did it playing for freaking Indiana, an even worse school than UNC. He played all the big dogs in the Big 10 multiple times except Ohio State who he only played once. In the Pac 10 he played Oregon 3 times, and plenty of other upside teams. The guy showed up in virtually all of those big games, it's very hard to find pratfalls, I think there's one agaisnt Michigan State and one against Penn State, but I believe he played them like 6 or 7 times combined. He was legit good, always, he just couldn't stay healthy. Originally I was gonna target JJ all over the place in dynasty rookie drafts to offsett my lack of access to Caleb, Drake and Jayden (because 3 of my 5 dynasty 2QB teams made the title game, 2 winning it), but with JJ flying up boards, it seems like Penix is the value, for now. No ADP data yet on where he's going (2.07 in 12 team rookie drafts). That's absurd value for his upside. I don't expect that to stick, but maybe he lasts to the early 2nd. I much prefer him at 2.07, to JJ at 1.08-1.11 where he typically goes now. 

 

We'll see what happens, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if Penix ends up the 2nd or 3rd best QB in the class, it's just that health and age angle, especially the health, have me skittish as hell. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

 

when Caesars Sport Book is trolling you, that’s a sign you need to go to Vegas and bet everything you’ve got on Black.  
 

Your life is over.  You just don’t know it yet.  
 

MUCH happier we got Mariota rather than trading for any of Picket, Jones or Fields.  
 

Even if Mariota is just “Meh” he’s better for the team than those bozos.  

[Skinsinparadise]

5 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I also don't know how anybody not in the Bear's organization would know the Bear's draft board.

 

I don't know how anybody outside the Washington organization would know the Commander's draft board.

 

 

 

All the executives of NFL teams have a shared google drive so its impossible for any team to keep their intentions secret. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

All the executives of NFL teams have a shared google drive so its impossible for any team to keep their intentions secret. 

I recognized this as sarcasm and am proud of myself!!!!!

 

[Skinsinparadise]

Who knows about this, some Vikings blog guy referencing a USA Today report about the Vikings want to trade with Washington because they are hopped up about Drake Maye.

 

 

[RWJ]

1 hour ago, illone said:

Just a fun little wager…

 

If there was another QB that was drafted other than Maye and I think they go, Maybe, I would say McCarthy would be the guy.  He still could be.  We don't know until draft night.  I do believe we also draft another QB late in the draft.  Keep an eye on Hartman.  That's my guess. 

[Conn]

28 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Who knows about this, some Vikings blog guy referencing a USA Today report about the Vikings want to trade with Washington because they are hopped up about Drake Maye.

 

 

I’m sure they’d love to get up to #2. I’d be more surprised if they didn’t “want to”. I doubt we’d want to drop that low (as I know you also agree) 

[RWJ]

35 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Who knows about this, some Vikings blog guy referencing a USA Today report about the Vikings want to trade with Washington because they are hopped up about Drake Maye.

 

 

*** Note *** I want to stay a #2 BUT We make the trade we get:  Minnesota's 2024 1sts ( #11, #23) 2024 4th (#108), WR Jordan Addison, 2025 1st and 2026 2nd.   Vikings get: Maye at #2 

Edited March 18 by RWJ