The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[mistertim]

14 minutes ago, seantaylor=god said:

I think they mean “safe” as in “conventional” he looks the part of an NFL QB but actually isn’t that good.

 

I don’t agree, I think he looks the part because he is a young, NFL QB with potential all pro upside.

 

 

 

Still doesn't make much sense IMO. If someone thinks a QB isn't very good, regardless of whether he "looks the part", then saying he's a "safe" pick at #2 overall is kind of nonsensical. 

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

19 hours ago, woodpecker said:

I don’t think anybody is embracing mediocrity. I agree we should take the swing at a QB, but I don’t agree that cashing in for the draft capital haul is a one-way ticket to mediocrity. If you want to judge it against the clown show we’ve had here the last 25 years, then sure. But there are many ways to skin a cat, and with a great GM like an Adam Peters and no more Snyder to meddle, it is possible to find that franchise QB another way. I think we need to get out of the mode of thinking our team is too dysfunctional to keep all options open. Again, I’m all for staying at 2 and taking a QB, but at some point there is a price where I would trade down. I don’t see it as embracing mediocrity, I see it as embracing a properly run organization. But just to flip it around, could one not argue that not going all in on a trade up for Caleb is embracing mediocrity?

 

Your opinions are bad, and no one likes them.

[Est.1974]

5 minutes ago, Lombardi's_kid_brother said:

 

Your opinions are bad, and no one likes them.

That’s irrelevant, ES isn’t a popularity contest.

56 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Maye is not some super raw project that needs multiple years to develop. He can come in day 1 and be at least around the 20th or so best QB in the league while growing. You get better by playing and you only sit a guy if you have a a high quality starter in place already.

Questionable take, many say he needs a year to sit.

[Est.1974]

1 hour ago, MartinC said:

One thing I will say about Mayes footwork is he tends to drift to his right in his drop. That needs to be fixed, he creates his own pressure by drifting towards the rush on occasions. That will piss off his O’Line who are expecting him to be setting up behind the center not off the right guards outside shoulder. 

That’s a great observation.

[ThatNFLChick]

 

[skinsfan66]

15 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

Selling 2 Mansions too. He is from Richmond wonder if he hits Wash. on the rebound?

[Rolo Tomasie]

My concern about Maye starting next season is not whether he is ready for it, it's whether the team will be equipped to protect its quarterback at even the most basic level. Look at how Howell was performing around weeks six and seven last season, vs the end of the season. You absolutely can "ruin" a young quarterback to the point he starts running from phantom pressure and getting sloppy. And that's difficult to recover from mentally. 

[skinny21]

40 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Still doesn't make much sense IMO. If someone thinks a QB isn't very good, regardless of whether he "looks the part", then saying he's a "safe" pick at #2 overall is kind of nonsensical. 

My guess…

If Maye is the general consensus to go to us #2, then I think it becomes the “safe” pick in terms of perception.  If Maye doesn’t work out, oh well, we took our shot.

If Peters were to trade down and either Maye or Daniels (or both) become franchise guys, Peters will get a lot of flak… presuming he doesn’t find our franchise guy by some other avenue.  If he trades up for Williams and Maye and/or Daniels outperform him, Peters probably catches some serious flak as well.

 

So someone that isn’t an enamored with Maye might feel like Peters is taking a risk, but they can at the same time believe that big picture it’s probably the least risky move for Peters’ job security.

 

I think it’s semi-analogous to the idea that signing Kirk is a “safe move” in terms of giving us a high floor (and job security), but risky if we’re shooting for a Super Bowl.  Of course there’s a lot more nuance to that conversation.

[Kalu44]

I hope the FO has like 20 scouts analyzing these two QBs. Such a hard decision. I think I'm flipping back to Daniels again. Reading that he is a nightmare for DC's to game plan for gets me excited. He is an explosive player. If you are going to take a shot, might as well go all in here. I think I would be upset if we didn't take him and some team like the Giants or Falcons traded up for him (with the Pats) and he took the league by storm. Each time he made a great play, I would say to myself, "that could have been us." That said, lets see what he weighs in at the combine, which could change the conversation on his durability. I will probably change my mind 100x times before the draft 🤣

Edited March 8 by Kalu44

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, Rolo Tomasie said:

My concern about Maye starting next season is not whether he is ready for it, it's whether the team will be equipped to protect its quarterback at even the most basic level. Look at how Howell was performing around weeks six and seven last season, vs the end of the season. You absolutely can "ruin" a young quarterback to the point he starts running from phantom pressure and getting sloppy. And that's difficult to recover from mentally. 

Maye was under pressure constantly at UNC. His OL was utter trash. He can handle pressure just fine. 

[The Consigliere]

16 hours ago, illone said:

 

 

Nine teams still passed on Mahomes...

 

Think about that for a moment.

 

Nine professional organizations with at least 7-10 scouts each, a Director of College Scouting, General Manager, QB Coach, Offensive Coordinator, Head Coach, and Im sure Im missing other highly paid role players involved in the process...

 

Thats millions of dollars in payroll that whiffed on the most important position in pro sports.

 

Multiplied nine times.

 

This is why I dont take my armchair GM job too seriously. 

 

Now when it comes to the regular season, and I start my (semi) professional sports betting operation up again, I will get very serious about my investment strategy.

 

But this time of year?

 

I basically do my best to project what I think a guy will become with proper coaching and the right scheme fit. 

 

Example:  JJ McCarthy. This is a guy that has the least amount of tape actually throwing the football. He gets an A+ for handing the ball off. However, you can see the talent bubbling beneath the surface, and he ran a pro style offense in school.  he was also coached by an NFL style head coach, and delivered on 3rd down in critical situations. I suspect he will interview well, and is one of the youngest QBs in the draft, so I am willing to bet he becomes something much greater than he has shown. If you drafted him based on what he has done, and not what you think he can do, he'd probably be a day 3 pick, aside from the winning record. But the positional value and winning percentage will get him into the top 15 picks most likely.

 

Are the other prospects better RIGHT NOW? Thats glaringly true and I wont debate that. But I will debate the risk reward of obtaining a player like that and getting him into the proper system, coaching him up, and letting his leadership and winning mentality shine. Certain players are GREAT college players, and do squat in the pros. Jayden Daniels strikes me as that type of player... I dont care if he is a blue chip this or that, or if the entire world thinks he is cant miss. You dont risk a high draft pick on a player that you dont believe translates to the pro game long term. My favorite team finally has an actual front office structure in place for the first time in over 20 years. I for one am willing to be patient and build this thing for long term success, not immediate quick fixes. I could care less if this team passes on the top 3 Qbs in this draft. I know many here would meltdown, but not me because that would signal a departure from conventional wisdom and making a tough decision despite how the media and fans would react. Thats true leadership and professionalism and takes more courage than most people are willing to admit.

 

The draft process is broken, but I think the more you can learn about the person the better chance you have of hiring the right player when you are on the clock. Another reason why this process is tough for armchair GMs. We dont get to hear the interviews and we are operating with limited data. I've actually looked around for All22 tape on college players, and that is apparently a dark market. The closest you can get is youtube channels like QB school and others who do use the All22 in some of their breakdowns.

 

With NFL Plus I can get the pro tape, but college tape is much harder to come by. I read somewhere that its traded on the underground via shared google drives and discreet back room handshakes. I suppose if I was a real scout I could get in on that, but alas my personal network doesnt extend to those areas so Im left making educated guesses based on 20+ years of watching college football and seeing what works in the pros and what doesnt. Im wrong alot, but I keep learning more each year and one thing Ive noticed is that mock draft consensus is a complete waste of time. This is why if I have McCarthy rated high, i just take him at #2 and throw double middle fingers to the league. Im gonna trust my own evaluation, not someone elses.  Media and pundits be damned.

 

 

 

 

The Mahomes whiff was pretty explicable right, projecting to the NFL from that system was always going to scare people. Back in the day, a lot of the concern with RGIII boiled down to: show me a QB in that system that wasn't a bust, and those that liked RGIII, like me, would shrug, we didn't have any, and we'd hide Couch's carcass behind us so they wouldn't see how big a bust it was behind us.

 

At the end of the day, a good chunk of the greatest of all time slipped through the cracks. Be straight here: of generally the top QB's from the past 4 decades, the NFL missed entirely on all of them except Elway.

 

Montana was a third round pick, Brady was what, a 5th round pick, Mahomes was a mid 1st, only Elway was a no doubt about it top pick, and hell, the most talented QB throwing the ball ever until probably Mahomes (and he was probably even more talented than him) was Marino and every single team in the league passed on him except Miami and Us.

 

Evaluating QB's is the hardest thing in the business, and typically, w/the guys that are total monsters, they have weird qualities, that push them over the top, that are hard to measure or even unearth until they're in the league, Montana and Brady in particular did not look like imposing guys, Montana was a good athlete, Brady was good at sports but not explosive at all in comparison, it was basically, in there, in the brain and the metaphorical heart, that was the key to them, and we all know countless examples of guys where it looked like they might have similar traits in the brain and heart as those guys but their physical limitations, or something that you couldn't gauge until they played in the league itself, defined them as players and as busts or at best mediocrities. Countless times.

 

The league doesn't know how to find Montana's, Brady's, and even Mahomes types, they know how to find Elways, and that's it. When its blatantly obvious in terms of arm talent, and athleticism, and skill and precesion doing the throwing? They can figure that out, reasonably well, with tape and analytics, but that's the only "type" of QB the NFL is remotely good at identifying, it's also why I like Maye. A lot of Maye is the Elway/Marino/Luck/Jeff George physical type, in terms of thrower. They can generally identify that, but what really turns that into a superhero like Montana, Brady and now Mahomes? That, they simply cannot figure out, measure, build any regression tree, honestly anything at all, to figure out, measure and identify, it is a mystery, like alchemy and Gold. 

Edited March 8 by The Consigliere

[skinsmania123]

Maybe it has been said already but I like the phrase "slow and steady wins the race." This franchise when Snyder first acquired it was always paying big bucks, making silly splashes thinking they could literally buy championships with retreads. We have so much more going for us now.  We are so lucky Snyder sold.

 

For years so many on here pointed out that we really did not have a decent evaluator of talent. So now we have a legit GM.  We have some really good money for a few decent FA acquisitions. And I love our draft capital.  As much as I know we cannot guarantee that any of these guys will be "THE ONE" I have really spent some time watching all of these guys and I would be happy as can be if we try with Daniels or Maye. And try is the operable words.  And maybe we do what Shanny did when he was here and pick up another QB in the latter rounds, if they see the potential. 

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, mistertim said:

 

The people who don't like Maye can't seem to make up their minds. On one hand some of them say "He's too raw, footwork is bad, he needs to sit for a while" and on the other some say "He's too much of a safe pick", implying that he's ready to play now but doesn't have much upside (which is hilariously weird considering his physical gifts).

 

Which one is it?

Honestly I think it's all largely bull----. I do not question that there are things he needs to refine, but the idea that his footwork, or throwing mechanics are going to ruin him are utter nonsense. What is going on between his ears, and how dedicated he is to being a first i/last out guy. If he puts the work in, if his processing of the game is good, he's going to be fine. Hell, even if he doesn't grow in those spots much, the arm talent alone, and athleticism, guarantee him a spot in the league, and likely as a low end starter, if he works, and improves over time, the sky is the limit, like with most prospects who have NFL level traits. 

 

If he has the ability to learn, and work, and dedication, he gets even better, and if the processing piece grows, it gets better stil.

 

I don't really give a ---- about his throwing motion, or his feet, at all. Nearly every single prospect that hit big had some issue with some aspect of that the past decade, very few of them had clean, beautiful write ups on their foot work, and their throwing mechanics. I think people get really wrapped up around that, when its not nearly as important as whats between the ears, in the heart and the traits to actually succeed in the NFL athletically as a QB. Add all that together, and look at what they did in college, especially when young, and you get your best chance possible as a prospect, and you still don't know whats going to happen, but honestly, in terms of lists of worries, late breakout age, and failing to throw with anticipation/not being able to even make all the throws etc are far more concerning to me than what he does with his feet (so long as he's a worker). 

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, WashingtonRedWolves said:

On the restaurant topic, you haven't spent top dollar until you go to the inn at little washington. Granted the last time I went it was probably the best food I've ever had

I've heard of that spot, but truth be told, I've only made it to a couple of destination spots, on teacher money, you can only go to so many great places. Browns Beach House in Hawaii, Roys in Oahu, Sooke Harbor House on Vancouver Island, Vij's in Vancouver, there was a Vietnamese place there that was mind blowing too, forget the name. Poppy which recently closed in Seattle was amazing (well 5 years ago it closed), bummed I never made it to Manresa in the South Bay of the Bay Area, nor the French Laundry in North Bay. But I made it to other places, in Lake Tahoe, it's Wolfdale's, and one other one that slips my mind. In Reno it was Beaujolais Bistro and 4th Street Bistro. 4th Street closed during the covid shut down though....So many great places. Inn at Little Washington was a trip destination dream place I never made it too :(. 

52 minutes ago, Rolo Tomasie said:

My concern about Maye starting next season is not whether he is ready for it, it's whether the team will be equipped to protect its quarterback at even the most basic level. Look at how Howell was performing around weeks six and seven last season, vs the end of the season. You absolutely can "ruin" a young quarterback to the point he starts running from phantom pressure and getting sloppy. And that's difficult to recover from mentally. 

We Get Stromberg back, which is basically like adding a 3rd rounder used on a C/G, we're guaranteed to invest at least some in the OL in Free Agency, and then there's those 5 picks between 36, 40, 67 or whatever, and 100 and 102 or thereabouts. Guaranteed we use one or two.

 

Honestly, what I'm more woried about is the depth at the position when cluster injuries might happen. Because whatever our depth was in '23, it must have been utter horse -----, if the starters were that bad. The ugly truth is we need to fix 3-4 positions on the line AND the reserves probably need to be replaced nearly in bulk. That's at least a 2 year process, but we need to come away from this spring with at least 4-5 OL's period, and at least 2 new starters not including Stromberg (who might start). 

[Warhead36]

QBs are just as responsible if not more so than their OL for sacks. Our OL actually graded out somewhere around league average for pass protection.

 

And Maye is fairly average at pressure to sack ratio. Howell on the other hand even in college had an atrociously poor ratio.

Edited March 8 by Warhead36

[ThatNFLChick]

 

Edited March 8 by ThatNFLChick

[seantaylor=god]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/drake-maye-was-his-authentic-self-at-the-combine-and-the-nfl-liked-it/ar-BB1jkoag

[seantaylor=god]

I’m prepared to eat crow, but I think Daniels is CB sized at his pro day and he isn’t going in the top 3.

 

Take a look at the photo at Heisman ceremony. Penix is 6.2 and a half, 216.

 

He looks bigger than Daniels. 
 

[88Comrade2000]

Why does everyone assume we will not fix the o-line?

 

We are drafting at least 2 olinemen and probably signing one or two as free agents.

 

Whomever is the QB will have a much better line than Sam did last year.

[The Consigliere]

4 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

Why does everyone assume we will not fix the o-line?

 

We are drafting at least 2 olinemen and probably signing one or two as free agents.

 

Whomever is the QB will have a much better line than Sam did last year.

I think we sign more than 2, its just some of them are for depth. 

 

I also do not thing are OL was fine, at all, in pass protection last year, period, although its definitely true that Howell creates some of his own sacks, there can't be any denying that. 

[DogofWar1]

Please please let Russ end up in NY.  Even if he gives them competent play, it'll be for a short time and then they're right back in the QB search.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Command The 414]

33 minutes ago, seantaylor=god said:

I’m prepared to eat crow, but I think Daniels is CB sized at his pro day and he isn’t going in the top 3.

 

Take a look at the photo at Heisman ceremony. Penix is 6.2 and a half, 216.

 

He looks bigger than Daniels. 
 

imho Daniels better shine like a star in a dark sky all alone come his Controlled Atmosphere Pro Day… 

[ThatNFLChick]

4 minutes ago, Command The 414 said:

imho Daniels better shine like a star in a dark sky all alone come his Controlled Atmosphere Pro Day… 

 

If Daniels was significantly shorter, I am sure someone would have mentioned it at the combine since he was walking around for days and talking to media

[Skinsinparadise]

4 hours ago, mac8887 said:

It’s the time of year when every team is really quiet, and really focusing on keeping their thoughts in the war room. It’s really hard for these reporters to get actual stories and end up having to throw poop at the wall just to get the clicks and views these media markets need to pay the bills.

 

Even Kiem, as great as he is, will have a hard time getting enough facts to report on to fulfill his obligations, and even he, must resort to more rumor/opinion stuff, in order to get the clicks and views to pay the bills. The sad part is, you can tell he doesn’t like to do it because he takes so much pride in his reporting.

 

Point being, I wouldn’t trust any reporter, not even someone as factual, plugged in, and trustworthy as Kiem as gospel right now when it comes to what we may do in the draft. I don’t distrust his trustworthiness, it’s just that it’s lying season in the NFL, and with the competent people we have running the organization, leaks should and will be few and far between, if any at all.

 

I do believe he will definitely have more facts to deliver closer to the draft, and will be extremely plugged in when it comes to free agency, and who we might be looking at. 

 

We all know teams aren't locked into squat especially at this time of the year.  A lot of noise. 

 

The main point i made that Keim made is from what he knows this team hasn't landed on a hard opinion on the QBs.  For Keim to be wrong it would mean that the team has already decided and the prodays, etc are a bit of a sham at least as to the QBs.

 

His other hard opinion is he's heard multiple times that this team really really wants to hold on to their picks.  For Keim to be wrong, it would mean this FO isn't that tied to holding on to their picks and are ready to trade them away.  Maybe.  But I suspect Keim wasn't deceived on it.

 

His other opinion is he thinks they stay at #2.  He doesn't think they trade back but doesn't completely rule it out.  He doesn't think the trade up.  I guess this is the boldest position he's taken but I don't find it that bold.

 

The thing about Keim, as Cooley used to joke, he doesn't talk unless he has like 7 sources on something.  He doesn't want to be wrong so its rare that he spitballs based on just one souce.

 

Speaking of Keim he wrote an article on the subject today

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39668487/what-washington-do-no-2

 

What will Washington do at No. 2?

Stay put

Multiple league sources, from coaches to executives, say there are two quarterbacks worthy of being drafted at No. 2 -- Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye. This, of course, assumes that Caleb Williams goes No. 1 overall. Washington still has Howell, who started all 17 games last season, but now has a chance to draft someone considered to have a higher ceiling and also with potentially five years of playing on a rookie contract.

There are no guarantees that any position works out when drafting this high, and quarterback is no exception. In the past 10 years, 21 quarterbacks have been selected in the first round; 12 project to be starters this year, 10 are still with their original team, and two reached the Super Bowl.

However ...

"I know one or two Super Bowls every 10 years you'll get a Nick Foles magic carpet ride with an unbelievable team," NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah said on a recent conference call. "The rest of them seem to be won by the Patrick Mahomeses and Tom Bradys of the world, the elite, elite guys. If you have a chance to go out there and get one of these guys who can be elite, you have to take your shot."

 

According to multiple analysts, the 2025 class is not trending to be as good as this one. Of course, at this time last year, while Williams and Maye were considered top picks, Daniels was not.

"It would be tough to pass on a quarterback," Jeremiah said. "You're not guaranteed to be up here again. There's no guarantee of what future years look like at the position."

Jeremiah was answering a question related to New England, but the logic applies to Washington as well.

By staying put you're guaranteed to get what you consider to be one of the top two quarterbacks in the class. ESPN NFL draft analyst Jordan Reid said Washington should stay at 2 and select Maye. Others, including ESPN NFL draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr., said they should take Daniels. Regardless, staying put is key.

 

...The combination of cap space and six picks in the top 103 -- only Arizona has more -- give Washington the ability to build properly for the short- and long-term. It needs to find starters at defensive end (two); offensive line (tackle, center, left guard); corner, linebacker and tight end.

 

Trade back

While Washington coach Dan Quinn said they don't have to rebuild but, rather, "recalibrate," others in the organization know they need more talent -- and young talent at that. They're privately willing to use the word "rebuild." Washington needs more quality young players: It's possible the Commanders' last five draft classes will produce only nine starters in 2024.

 

...Teams such as Atlanta (eighth), Minnesota (11th) and Denver (12th) all need quarterbacks. Washington could move back and acquire future No. 1 picks. The Commanders could roll with Howell and a rookie, or sign a moderately priced veteran quarterback to pair with a first-round quarterback.

 

..."It's a really, really good class," Reid said of the quarterbacks.

Of course, that could prompt some teams to stay put and opt for one of the quarterbacks after Maye and Daniels and keep their other draft picks.

But if Washington doesn't love either Maye or Daniels -- or if it views another quarterback as being close to them -- it can trade back.

There is one drawback to having a lot of high picks.

"If you hit on all those picks, congratulations. But you have to then pay all those guys," Eager said. "If you kind of stagger the windows on all those players, that might be a better way to go about it."

 

Trade up

Williams is considered the best quarterback in the class -- one league executive said Chicago should not trade the pick because he's clearly ahead of the others. Washington has been looking for That Guy for decades; no quarterback has been the primary starter for more than three seasons since Mark Rypien from 1989-93. The organization has started 12 quarterbacks since the 2017 season.

Kliff Kingsbury, Washington's new offensive coordinator, coached at USC last season, so he knows Williams well. An added benefit: Williams grew up in Washington, D.C., and his return home would energize the fan base.

"Caleb is still in a tier of his own," Reid said. "As far as the traits and what he can be on the next level, I think he has star potential very quickly."

 

 

...If Chicago wants to trade the pick -- multiple executives anticipate the Bears will stay put and draft Williams -- multiple teams would likely be interested. That would drive up the price for Washington, even just to move up one spot.

"That just doesn't make sense to me from Adam Peters' standpoint," Reid said of moving up, "just because there's so many holes on this team. Unless Caleb just has a generational type of grade, and I hate using that word, to where you're willing to give up three plus first-round picks to move up one spot. I just don't see that happening."

 

From an analytics perspective -- and Washington is using analytics more than ever -- this move doesn't make sense, said Eager. It's possible multiple teams would want that pick, so the price tag would be high. And he pointed to Carolina as a reason to not make this move. Last year the Panthers traded receiver DJ Moore, the ninth and 61st overall selections last year and a first-round pick this year plus a second in '25 to Chicago for the top pick. They selected Bryce Young over C.J. Stroud, who was the NFL's offensive rookie of the year in Houston.

But now Carolina, coming off a 2-15 season and with a new coach, doesn't pick until No. 33 overall this year.

"Oftentimes it does require that kind of boldness to get the quarterback you want," Eager said. "The best move is staying at two and taking Maye; historically the difference between player one and player two at any one position is generally speaking not worth the value of the trade."

Whatever happens, multiple sources who have worked with owner Josh Harris say he'll demand Peters and Quinn bring him lots of information so the organization can make the best decision. Peters said at the combine they have not settled on any particular outcome -- though they understand the importance of the decision.

 

 

Edited March 8 by Skinsinparadise