ThatNFLChick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Another mock draft: 1. Bears - Williams 2. Commanders - Maye 3. Falcons (via trade up) - Daniels 4. Cardinals - MHJ 5. Vikings (via trade up) - McCarthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MartinC Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, CjSuAvE22 said: I wouldn’t sleep on a QB like McCarthy, kid is a winner I have no problem drafting down taking him with the intention of getting good talent around him and building the team. I could provide a list of QBs who won big in College who couldn't play in the NFL - but even the internet does not have enough space for that list. McCarthy might have a good NFL skillset - i'm dubious - but his ability to win in College does not make any difference to that. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Going Commando Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, MartinC said: I will take things that are not going to happen for $500. We need a QB - if there is a QB available at #2 worth a team trading two firsts and second for why would not just take that QB? Everyone is going to want us to be idiots to build intrigue for a top ten that's probably going to be super chalky. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WashingtonRedWolves Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 42 minutes ago, Going Commando said: The 49ers didn't need a great QB to beat the Chiefs in that game. They just needed to either not have an extra point blocked or not muff a punt. How about when purdy and the offense continually stalled in the 2nd half? They had every opportunity to drive the dagger into the chiefs and couldn't score any points off of two KC turnovers If this doesn’t prove that having the better QB is more important than having the more stacked roster, I don’t know what will. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Going Commando Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 We didn't hire this staff and tell them we're going to get them the best QB possible in order to trade down and pick QB4 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MartinC Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, Going Commando said: Everyone is going to want us to be idiots to build intrigue for a top ten that's probably going to be super chalky. The Bears are taking a QB @#1 - it will be Williams. We are taking a QB at #2. The only question is which one - most likely by far is its Maye. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Going Commando Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, WashingtonRedWolves said: How about when purdy and the offense continually stalled in the 2nd half? They had every opportunity to drive the dagger into the chiefs and couldn't score any points off of two KC turnovers If this doesn’t prove that having the better QB is more important than having the more stacked roster, I don’t know what will. Mahomes did not play very well in that game, and his offense only scored 14 points, 7 of which were a gift from a muffed punt on the 16 yard line. They only sustained three drives in a five quarter game. He also turned it over and took awful sacks and had a grounding penalty. Until that final drive in OT, he didn't outplay Purdy. Why are people acting like Mahomes was some unbeatable force of nature who put up 5 TDs last night? That stacked 49ers roster also lost five players over the course of the game, and had an injured Kittle and Samuel still out there trying to get open against a dominant secondary. This was not some big mismatch between a loaded roster vs a crap roster with a great QB. The Chiefs are loaded too, and also have a way better OL and Secondary than SF. And they have better coaching on both sides of the ball. And despite those advantages plus a major advantage at QB, that game was a pick em that came down to a couple of key special teams plays to determine the outcome. If anything, that game and the takes coming in response to it are a clear demonstration of how much people overestimate the individual impact of QB in football. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WashingtonRedWolves Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, Going Commando said: Until that final drive in OT, he didn't outplay Purdy. But this is all that matters. He outplayed him at the single most important time in the game and came up extremely clutch to drive them down the field for the game winning TD, akin to a vintage Brady performance. In the end, mahomes took the game into his own hands. After that, how he played earlier goes out the window 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistertim Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 26 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said: Another mock draft: 1. Bears - Williams 2. Commanders - Maye 3. Falcons (via trade up) - Daniels 4. Cardinals - MHJ 5. Vikings (via trade up) - McCarthy I could see the Falcons trade up for Daniels, but I'm highly dubious about McCarthy as a top 5 pick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mac8887 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 (edited) 14 minutes ago, Going Commando said: Why are people acting like Mahomes was some unbeatable force of nature who put up 5 TDs last night? It's not that. What people are so enamored about is how in the 4th qaurter and in overtime, when the game was on the line, he put on a clinic. On every important play, he was the one Andy Reid had the play dialed up for and mahomes made the right decision and executed flawlessly every time when it mattered most. In the 4th quarter and in ot, mahomes was the best player on the field by far and every could tell. That's why everyone is stroking mahomes this morning and it's definitely justified. Edited February 12 by mac8887 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
profusion Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 (edited) Last night definitively answered for me the dilemma of whether to build up the team around an average QB or go immediately for the hotshot QB prospect in the draft. Purdy couldn't get it done when the game was on the line, and Mahomes did. Edited February 12 by profusion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatNFLChick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Since we are talking about Purdy, some breakdown videos that I watched this morning. Drake Maye Jayden Daniels It's interesting because this was his report on: Brock Purdy (he called it before EVERYONE) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyHolt Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 For all his greatness Mahomes had some ****ty throws including a near 2nd INT in the endzone that hit 2 hands of a Niner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anselmheifer Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Someone in the past few pages asked if we could trade down and still get Daniels. We could trade down with NE, if they really want Maye. But if we want Maye, we should take him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hail2skins Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 55 minutes ago, Going Commando said: If anything, that game and the takes coming in response to it are a clear demonstration of how much people overestimate the individual impact of QB in football. Sure, Mahomes could've lost last night, and his team did get crushed by Tampa in a SB. But the Chiefs reaching at least the semifinals in each of his six years as a starter has not happened without him being one of the best QBs of all time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinking Skins Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 So here are some more updates. I'm still working on my analytics. The clustering (grouping) stuff may not be as exciting because that will just start arguments. its honestly just more mathematical than I thought it would be. But it is still fun. That said, I have been able to compute stuff like - completions - attempts - completion percentage - yards per attempt - yards per completion - adjusted yards per attempt - Passing TDs - Passing Yards - Interceptions - Fumbles - n yard passes where n is a multiple of 10 - sack % - int % - TDs in each game - interceptions in each game - n yard rushes where n is a multiple of 10 - number of times sacks - yards lost due to sacks - average yards per sack - 3rd down completions - 3rd down attempts - 3rd down completion % - 3rd down TDs - 3rd down yards - 3rd down interceptions So while the actual clustering metric is not quite as strong as I want it to be, I like these features because I can just look at these college QBs from an angle I cold not look at them before. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrFan Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 43 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said: Since we are talking about Purdy, some breakdown videos that I watched this morning. Drake Maye Jayden Daniels It's interesting because this was his report on: Brock Purdy (he called it before EVERYON Please stop confusing me with the Johnson's and the Purdy's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatNFLChick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, mistertim said: I could see the Falcons trade up for Daniels, but I'm highly dubious about McCarthy as a top 5 pick. I don't know, we keep hearing about how teams are a lot higher on McCarthy than regular folks. I have trouble seeing him top 5 too but I am starting to think he is 100% going in the top 10. I also think if Maye is there, the Patriots take him. He fits the kind of QB that team typically likes. If he's not, they likely trade down and maybe take someone like Bo Nix later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Consigliere Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 21 hours ago, dunfer said: we wont trade much to swap spots anyways. weve got 3 guys to choose from and are sitting in second spot. we win M Davis has the creepiest hair. shaving that off should be one of our demands Has a real cuts his hair with a butter knife Keith Van Horn/Captain Kangaroo vibe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Consigliere Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 19 hours ago, ThatNFLChick said: Says a guy whose paid zero attention to QB related rule changes over the past 25 years. Teams aren't stupid, they know its a cheat code, and far more valuable than any talented player with a higher grade if you hit by miles and miles and miles. Turned around the Colts INSTANTLY in 2012. Turned around the Redskins INSTANTLY in 2012. Turned the chiefs into a stuck franchise with Alex Smith into a perpetual contender for six consecutive years with Mahomes. Turned around the Bengals INSTANTLY after having been trash for nearly 20 years after Pittsburgh tore Carson Palmer's knee apart decades ago. The Bills said goodbye to Jimy Kelly and vanished for 20 years, only to rise again after drafting and developing Josh Allen. We could go on and on and on, Watson and the Texans, and now Stroud and the Texans, Baker and the Browns first playoff win in nearly 40 years. It's a cheat code, simple as that. Nothing else has close to multiplying effect of hitting on a franchise QB in the draft, it's basically like playing Texas Hold 'Em, but suddenly having exclusive rights to a pair of joker cards thrown in the deck. Teams reach for QB's for a reason. If you hit, it is fundamentally transformative, and improves your chances to contend by orders of magnitude. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Consigliere Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 14 hours ago, MartinC said: Yes. Not that Purdy played badly overall (had a freezing cold 3rd quarter though), but take out Mahomes and that Chiefs offense is very very average. Kelce is their only elite player - Mahomes puts that team on his back and carries them. The 49ers are a far better football team top to bottom, but Mahomes is the best QB in the league. I would argue it's outright below average. Solid enough OL, but WR2, and WR3, and WR4 are all terrible, WR1 is a B-1, TE is an aging former TE1 overall who was more like a TE 12-15 this year, Pacheco was a huge hit as I think a day 3 pick at RB, but that doesn't mean he's a top 10-15 RB in the league. His weapons are terrible, that win is 100% Mahomes+the defense+Reid. That's it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BatteredFanSyndrome Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 hours ago, WashingtonRedWolves said: But this is all that matters. He outplayed him at the single most important time in the game and came up extremely clutch to drive them down the field for the game winning TD, akin to a vintage Brady performance. In the end, mahomes took the game into his own hands. After that, how he played earlier goes out the window I don’t think anybody is downplaying what it means to have Pat Mahomes at QB. But there’s only one of them. For as great as he is, last night wouldn’t be the game I’d use as an example for anything. He was stifled and forced into uncharacteristic errors, and lucky to even have a chance to take it down and get the W in OT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Going Commando Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said: I don’t think anybody is downplaying what it means to have Pat Mahomes at QB. But there’s only one of them. For as great as he is, last night wouldn’t be the game I’d use as an example for anything. He was stifled and forced into uncharacteristic errors, and lucky to even have a chance to take it down and get the W in OT. His whole season was down compared to where he typically is, and he wasn't even one of the top five QBs this year. Seventh in MVP voting, finishing behind freaking Dak Prescott. And that's an important point: even the best of these guys are human with variable levels of play. They aren't aliens who maintain invincible standards and single handedly win games for their teams. They have to be supported by a whole lot of other players and coaches who are also elite, and Patrick Mahomes certainly is, and has been his entire career. It's how he's been able to enjoy so much team success. And the gap between the top QBs in the league is far smaller than people recognize when they base their assessment so heavily on team success, and in any given year Burrow could be the best QB in the NFL and lead his team on a dominant run. Allen could. Jackson could. So on and so forth. The separation between them in the final result of their season comes down to how lucky they are in the quality and health of the team surrounding them at the end. Mahomes wouldn't have even made it to the AFC championship game this year if Buffalo hadn't been wrecked with injuries and down to an eight string linebacker. There is so much contingency involved in these results that gets ignored when people rank these guys against each other based on things like rings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Consigliere Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 hours ago, Warhead36 said: Im just glad were not in the AFC. First team to get a superstar QB in the NFC will be running it for the next decade. Time to take our shot. Yep, it reminds me of the eighties, when the AFC got all the talent out of the famed '83 class (and even Boomer out of '84, although the Niners did eventually get steve young out of that one, I think it was that one anyway via a trade with Tampa), currently the NFC is pretty bereft. What's the last big time QB in a draft they've hit on if you don't buy Purdy? Maybe Hurts and Kyler and neither of those are home runs in the same way as Burrow, Herbert, Mahomes, Josh Allen etc? It aint great and they missed on Stroud last spring too, as well as Richardson. The only great young QB's in the conference are Kyler, Hurts, Purdy, maybe Love (I'm still a bit of a skeptic) and that's it. It is really wide open, with us and Chicago in the cat bird seat for the next guy, if we hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
srtman04 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 hours ago, ThatNFLChick said: Since we are talking about Purdy, some breakdown videos that I watched this morning. Drake Maye Jayden Daniels It's interesting because this was his report on: Brock Purdy (he called it before EVERYONE) Damn, this guy should be an NFL scout. I'm hoping Adam Peters is taking note 🙂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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