The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Voice_of_Reason]

7 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I know just like the schedule.  We just think the Bills are better than Cardinals but 50-50 chance it could be the opposite.  I recall your takes that we don't know anything.  And everything can be the opposite of what we expect.

 

If you said instead, 25% will change, 75% will likely be similar to last year, you'd have me nodding.  But you are a radical on the idea that everything is entirely different than what we expect.  We had epic debates on that.  I know you have with @Koolblue13 too on the same subject.  

 

But as a dude that has lived and died with every draft, yes there are surprises but generally its rarely been crazy.  yes a Kyler Murray or a Joe Burrow can emerge out of nowhere.  But its rare that multiple Joe Burrows emerge.

FYI, I was 100% right about the schedule.  If I wasn’t we wouldn’t have the #2 overall pick. Because we had the easiest overall strength of schedule of the teams with 4 wins.  
 

In fact, I was more right than I thought I was going to be.  
 

You can’t predict the 3-4 teams which are going to massively underperform and you can’t predict the 3-4 who are going to seriously over-perform.  And if you have one  or two of each your schedule looks massively different than predicted in August.  
 

And you have my point wrong: it’s not that I think everything is wonky all the time.  
 

It’s that enough is wonky it’s really hard to predict the current year let alone a year out.  Maybe it’s only a 25% change.  But that’s a huge percentage when you’re looking at probability.  

8 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

this again. 

I’m nothing if not consistent.   

Edited February 11 by Voice_of_Reason

[The Consigliere]

6 hours ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

This is a "I'm gonna die sometime in the next couple of years, so I'd rather have some watchable football, then build the right way". Honestly, that's exactly what it is. 

[Skinsinparadise]

10 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

FYI, I was 100% right about the schedule.  If I wasn’t we wouldn’t have the #2 overall pick. Because we had the easiest overall strength of schedule of the teams with 4 wins.  
 

In fact, I was more right than I thought I was going to be.  
 

You can’t predict the 3-4 teams which are going to massively underperform and you can’t predict the 3-4 who are going to seriously over-perform.  And if you have one  or two of each your schedule looks massively different than predicted in August.  
 

And you have my point wrong: it’s not that I think everything is wonky all the time.  
 

It’s that enough is wonky it’s really hard to predict the current year let alone a year out.  Maybe it’s only a 25% change.  But that’s a huge percentage when you’re looking at probability.  

I’m nothing if not consistent.   

 

it wasn't that easy of a schedule.  And it didn't happen for the explanations you gave which is bad teams have just as good of a shot to be really good as the good teams have a shot to be really bad where we don't know if the 49ers or Bills will be better than the Cardinals and Patriots, etc.

 

Where it looked like the end of the season, the schedule would be brutal because of the slew of good teams they slated to play  -- good teams based on 2022 (Dallas twice, Eagles, 49ers, Miami).  That part of the schedule indeed helped us earned the #2 pick. 

 

Basically the bad teams were VERY bad ala the Patriots, Cardinals and the Giants which helped our strength of schedule. 

 

Edited February 11 by Skinsinparadise

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

it wasn't that easy of a schedule.  And it didn't happen for the explanations you gave which is bad teams have just as good of a shot to be really good as the bad teams have a shot to be really good where we don't know if the 49ers or Bills will be better than the Cardinals and Patriots, etc.

I never predicted we’d have an easier or harder schedule.

 

I just said predicting how hard the schedule is going to be is impossible.

 

The Falcons, Seahawks, Rams, Jets and Patriots all underperformed their expected records.  The Jets by a lot because Rodgers got hurt.  
 

Some of the really good teams on the schedule were really good.  

Our predicted strength of schedule before the season was one of the hardest in the NFL.  
 

We ended up with a .512 strength of scheduled. Middle of the pack.  

 

[HTTRDynasty]

 

[Koolblue13]

9 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I never predicted we’d have an easier or harder schedule.

 

I just said predicting how hard the schedule is going to be is impossible.

 

The Falcons, Seahawks, Rams, Jets and Patriots all underperformed their expected records.  The Jets by a lot because Rodgers got hurt.  
 

Some of the really good teams on the schedule were really good.  

Our predicted strength of schedule before the season was one of the hardest in the NFL.  
 

We ended up with a .512 strength of scheduled. Middle of the pack.  

 

Ewers, Beck, Sanders and a few more QBs might really grow this year and could be better next year.

 

They could all suck too.

 

The logic that you use makes it seem like projecting what round this years QBs are drafted is a fools errand.

 

You're like the illogical Spock. 

[ThatNFLChick]

The amount of talk today about Caleb Williams wearing a skirt is insane. I understand talking about him sobbing in his mom's arms after games because a player's mental toughness and how they handle adversity is important but all the discourse over him wearing a skirt is ridiculous. 

[bahamas1skinsfan]

 

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

Pull some deep outs to the opposite hash for us....We will wait.....For forever. I have watched hours at this point. And I think I saw 2 or 3 on his entire tape. I can sit here and post dead ducks from him all night. His are is average at best. 

Just say you don't like him and leave it at that Maye is not the 2nd becoming each qb has bad film

[Voice_of_Reason]

19 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Ewers, Beck, Sanders and a few more QBs might really grow this year and could be better next year.

 

They could all suck too.

 

The logic that you use makes it seem like projecting what round this years QBs are drafted is a fools errand.

 

You're like the illogical Spock. 

In the current year, it’s somewhat more predictable.  
 

In future years, eh, you’ll hit some and you’ll miss some.  
 

The thing is, it’s impossible to tell which ones you’ll hit on and which ones you’ll miss on.

 

There are obviously exceptions.  Guys like Peyton Manning, Luck, even Caleb Williams, those type of guys you can see coming and project them to be a #1 #1 more than a year out.

 

But it’s much more of a guessing game a year out than an exact science.

 

The current year, it’s much easier to tier guys and figure out where on the draft they might land. Top 10, 1st round. 2nd day, 3rd day.  Getting more precise than that is difficult. 

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, bahamas1skinsfan said:

 

Just say you don't like him and leave it at that Maye is not the 2nd becoming each qb has bad film

Welcome. But your first post has too much seethe in it. 

[NOLA2DC]

2 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Well yeah no doubt. But what can that QB do without it?

Not much. Cincy made it a point to get Chase and the other guys once they had Burrow, and he came from a stacked LSU team. CJ came from OSU with MHJ. I get you want a guy that can carry team if needed but even the best QBs have top-notch guys around them.   You evaluate a guy's skill set and see if it translates to the NFL and the system you plan to run. 

[mistertim]

5 hours ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

"The guy just can't take hits" literally makes zero sense when you're talking about someone who has never been seriously injured, never even missed 2 games, and played 4 and a half years of college ball against actual NFL caliber players. Do you see why that makes no sense to say? He clearly can take the hits and has been durable and just fine. Do people think repeating this will somehow reverse time and give him serious injuries like RG3 had in college or something?

 

The "well he hasn't been injured yet" argument is so weak. It's like saying "I own a sports car and I'm a bad driver who keeps running into stuff at high speeds. But I'm still alive, so that must mean I'll keep staying alive if I hit more things at high speeds." 

 

And the "he can't take hits" thing does have some merit if you look at the way his body reacts. Some guys get hit and they automatically get compact. Daniels seems to do the opposite. It's very much like how RG3's body reacted to hits. They both basically flop around like wet noodles, which is a potential disaster waiting to happen.

 

I don't think that's something that you can really "coach out" of someone. It's just the way their brains and musculoskeletal systems respond to certain inputs.

 

And to everyone else, can we please stop posting those clips of Daniels getting obliterated? Not because they have no merit, but because it allows @ThatNFLChickto completely ignore the football points made in posts about Daniels and just focus on the clips.

 

@Skinsinparadiseposted some specific football questions and insights about Daniels, but then he also included those clips, which allowed her to completely ignore the football stuff and instead complain about the videos. It's weak sauce but it is what it is.

[KDawg]

Are you guys tired of regurgitating the same arguments every 2-3 days yet?

 

Going to be a long few months  

[ThatNFLChick]

4 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Are you guys tired of regurgitating the same arguments every 2-3 days yet?

 

Going to be a long few months  

 

😂 😂 😂 

[kingdaddy]

1 hour ago, ThatNFLChick said:

The amount of talk today about Caleb Williams wearing a skirt is insane. I understand talking about him sobbing in his mom's arms after games because a player's mental toughness and how they handle adversity is important but all the discourse over him wearing a skirt is ridiculous. 

Merrill Hoge put some negative stuff out there on Caleb Williams today.....I remember when he trashed the Tim Tebow pick and he was spot on (as many were). 

[mistertim]

30 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Are you guys tired of regurgitating the same arguments every 2-3 days yet?

 

Going to be a long few months  

 

Yeah I think we need some new material.

 

Hot take: I heard Jayden Daniels got stranded on an island with a bunch of people and was very quick to suggest resorting to cannibalism. If we accept this as fact, can we be sure the he won't try to eat his teammates if they get trapped in an elevator or something? That's a serious leadership red flag IMO.

[DiscoBob]

48 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Yeah I think we need some new material.

 

Hot take: I heard Jayden Daniels got stranded on an island with a bunch of people and was very quick to suggest resorting to cannibalism. If we accept this as fact, can we be sure the he won't try to eat his teammates if they get trapped in an elevator or something? That's a serious leadership red flag IMO.

 

Great point - you should reach out to Mike Florio, he'll put it out on blast tomorrow 👍

 

[Rufus T Firefly]

2 hours ago, mistertim said:

And the "he can't take hits" thing does have some merit if you look at the way his body reacts. Some guys get hit and they automatically get compact. Daniels seems to do the opposite. It's very much like how RG3's body reacted to hits. They both basically flop around like wet noodles, which is a potential disaster waiting to happen.

That is the point I (and many others) have tried to make. It should be exceedingly obvious that that is the point. when someone comes back with basically "that's BS, he hasn't been hurt yet" then it seems clear they are intentionally missing the point to advance an argument. 

 

Either that, or, well.....

 

That's why I don't bother responding. It's just not worth it. 

2 hours ago, mistertim said:

I don't think that's something that you can really "coach out" of someone. It's just the way their brains and musculoskeletal systems respond to certain inputs.

Exactly. 

[Commander202]

Kinda feel like JJ McCarthy underrated . Don’t get the hate  from him but he’s easily someone that going late first or early second… maybe higher . 
 

And I think he’s a dark horse for what Peters would want if we decided to trade back.

Edited February 11 by Commander202

[Koolblue13]

7 hours ago, KDawg said:

Are you guys tired of regurgitating the same arguments every 2-3 days yet?

 

Going to be a long few months  

I'm just glad we were able to coral them all into the QB thread, instead of the draft thread.

[HTTRDynasty]

 

[HTTRDynasty]

 

[FrFan]

Mindset: The 'Make or Break' of Sports Success!!

 

Callan McKinnon Callan McKinnon Mental Development Coach at Rise Above Adversity

 

 "We all learn lessons in life. Some stick some don't. I have always learned more from rejection and failure than from acceptance and success." - Henry Rollins

Michael Jordan was cut from his High School Basketball Team.

Tom Brady had an NFL draft scouting report that looked like this: Poor build, skinny, lacks strength, lacks mobility, lacks a really strong arm, system-type player, can't drive the ball downfield, gets knocked down easily.

In the early days of boxing, experts used a series of measurements to assess a boxer’s skills. Muhammad Ali failed every single one of them. He was not a natural fighter at all.

 

So how did each of these athletes go from a time where "experts" didn't have a high opinion of their ability to become arguably the greatest of all time in their respective sport?

At elite levels, everybody has a great physical skill set. What separates the best from the rest lies in the 6 inches between their ears. It is their mindset.

 

So, what is a mindset?

According to the Oxford dictionary, a mindset is a "set of attitudes held by someone" - Basically a perspective or a way of thinking. 

In American Psychologist, Dr. Carol Dweck's best-selling book called 'mindset', Dweck talks about two polar opposite mindsets that people adopt. And that success isn't so much derived from intelligence, talent, and education as it is from having the 'right' mindset.

 

Most people think of talent when it comes to sports. It is where the whole idea of being “a natural” was born. A natural is someone who moves, looks, and is an athlete without having to stretch themselves. And since so many people believe in natural talent, many professional coaches and scouts look for naturally talented athletes only to look back and realize that they never really achieved great success. Why? Because they didn't have the 'right' mindset.

 

Dr. Carol Dweck categorizes two different ways of thinking about one's ability and talents into a fixed mindset and a growth mindset.

Individuals with a fixed mindset think that their abilities, talents, and intelligence are fixed (already determined) and can't be changed. They have what they have and that is it. In a fixed mindset, athletes often become so preoccupied with looking and being talented that they don’t realize their full potential. This type of mindset is unfortunately very common and often results in emotional athletes that continually compare themselves to others, driving fearful, hesitant, and rigid actions that limit their results.

The more desirable mindset is known as a growth mindset. Individuals with this mindset think of their abilities and talents as things they’re able to grow and develop. The growth mindset still recognizes the importance of talent, but it focuses on developing and building upon talent instead of using talent for display purposes only and coasting along to success.

How does a fixed / growth mindset affect athletes?

• Beliefs:

A fixed mindset fosters the belief that talent is something that you are born with and you either have it or you don't. When fixed mindset athletes come up against more talented athletes they perceive their own talent as only being blessed with so much and therefore cannot compete at the higher level.

A growth mindset believes that their talent is a process of learning and is not set in stone. They understand with practice comes improvement. Every rep is lodged into muscle memory and creates autonomous actions and habits. A growth mindset athlete knows to fulfill their potential takes practice, instruction, and repetitive effort.

• Motivation & Effort:

Fixed mindset athletes are more often linked to being extrinsically motivated. Meaning they are motivated by things outside of themselves. This could be trophies, big crowds, prize money, etc. The challenge with being extrinsically motivated is that there is not always going to be an external reward on the line which creates inconsistency in an athlete's process and result. A fixed mindset athlete is motivated by showing off or even hiding their ability (depending on their perspective on standing out). A fixed mindset athlete relies on their talent and expects things to come easy because they have a certain level of talent.

 

Growth mindset athletes are generally motivated internally. They have a desire for learning how to develop their ability. It is their passion for constant improvement that drives them to consistently work on their skillset. Because they see the results that consistent effort and consistent work on their skillset brings, they truly feel anything is possible when you can understand where to focus your effort. Meaning they learn from those that have succeeded before them and put time into strengthening weaknesses and practice at performance speeds.

• Adversity & Setbacks:

An athlete with a fixed mindset will generally avoid challenges if they are uncertain if their talent will hold up. This can result in hiding their ability because they are worried about what others might think of them if they look less talented (extrinsic motivation). A fixed mindset athlete will see setbacks as evidence that there are some things that they will never be good at. They believe they only have so much talent, so when things don't go their way they see it as a sign their talent has failed them. And because they place so much importance on talent itself it can cause many fixed-minded athletes to feel ashamed, embarrassed, or just not good enough. Too much adversity can often cause fixed-minded athletes to quit. 

An athlete with a growth mindset embraces challenges and adversity as an opportunity to learn, even if they can't achieve them yet. They have a win or learn attitude, and use the lessons as directed knowledge to help them improve. A growth mindset athlete sees setbacks not as a failure, but as part of the learning process. They know it doesn't define their ability because they know that their talent can always be built upon, improved, and developed with focused effort.

• Feedback & Accountability:

When it comes to feedback and accountability, a fixed-minded athlete will ignore the feedback that has any type of negative connotation often missing out on any useful information. They only want to hear about what they are good at and keep the focus on their strengths. This often leads to the blame game when things don't work out. A fixed mindset athlete will not take responsibility for their faults which robs them of the chance of learning and improvement.

A growth mindset athlete will learn from criticism and use it to understand how to improve. For many athletes, what may sound like criticism to them is actually just a competitive tone, and more often than not comes with good intention. So it is important, to hear the message that is being conveyed and not the tone. A growth-minded athlete understands that the bus to success is driven by them.

 

"The only time success comes before work is in the dictionary." - Vince Lombardi

There is a boatload of more athletes that had the potential to be great than the ones that actually achieve success. 

The beauty of the mind is that it is a skill set. In the same way that you build your body, conditioning, and sport-specific skill set - you can build your mind. And it all starts with your perspective and the way you think about things. Your attitude. Your mindset.

That first skill that you learned in your sport that is now an automatic behaviour is the same thing that happens when you practice a thought over and over. You may have elements of both mindsets or you may be predominantly fixed or growth. But every athlete is different and has different thought processes which are derived from their experiences.

No matter where you sit on either side of the fence, here is how you can begin to develop a growth mindset towards your sport:

1. Set Goals & Step into your Fear.

Have a clear destination and go for it!!! The reason why we set goals is to give us direction. Write those goals down in present tense, even if they seem unrealistic now. Put those goals in a place where you can see them and read them daily. The more your mind is produced with what you want the more your mind is trained to see what you want to see. The opportunities, the avenues, the people to help you achieve your goal. Your mind is super powerful when you're clear on what you want. Focus is everything!!

Now that you have your goals written down break them down into monthly, weekly, and even daily success points. This way the mountain doesn't seem so high. If you face a challenge, a setback, or an obstacle, it's easier to dust yourself off and keep climbing.

 

"In order to do something you've never done, you need to become someone you've never been." - Les Brown

The definition of insanity is to do the same thing over and expect a different result. If you want a new result, you have to add new processes. This change is going to be uncomfortable. The mind's number one job is to keep us safe. Your mind loves to feel in control. It loves what it knows already. When you do new things, you will activate a fear state because "new" can't be controlled by your mind. This is completely normal and part of the human makeup. The only way to move past fear is through action. Take those daily actions and build those new habits that work towards your goals. You will look back and thank yourself later.

 

2. Value the 'Process' Over End Results.

The late great Kobe Bryant, who had one of the most insane work ethics in sports, said that the fulfillment is in the journey. It is getting 1% better every single day. It is creating new habits, choosing self-discipline, and understanding that the little wins create the big achievements.

Consistent habits create consistent growth. A huge focus of the growth mindset is that everything begins and ends with effort. It is the persistence that breaks through the resistance. It is working harder at your skillset than anyone you know. Practice makes improvement. Every rep you lodge creates muscle memory. Muscle memory is what allows you to perform at your peak in a flow.

Every result has a process. The more you value this process, the more you get out of it. Your goals create the path. Your mind chooses whether you follow it or not. The process is built on habits. Instill the habits that take you where you want to go. The first 10 days are always the hardest, but with repetitive action, each day becomes easier. It's your life. It's your goal. It's your journey. Enjoy it.

 

3. Incorporate the word 'Yet'.

You will never know everything about your sport. There will always be new ways of doing things, there will be new strategies, and the game as you know will adapt. Your role is to be a student of the game. Always listening and always learning. Embrace imperfection as you learn and grow. Everything has a process. A skill can always be learned through instruction, effort, and repetitive practice. And this is why the word 'yet' is so powerful.

You may not be where you want to be yet. You may not know that skill yet. You may fall, you may be lost, you may not get a fair go. But it's not over... yet. A growth-minded athlete is always growing, developing, and improving. Perspective is everything!! Finish off your sentences with the word 'yet'.

 

4. Win or Learn.

There are only two results when you attempt to do anything. You either 'win' or you 'learn'. Losing, failure, adversity, and setbacks all have lessons attached to teach you how to navigate the same path the next time. Nobody became great by winning all the time. In fact, if someone was 'lucky' enough to win all the time, the first time they face any type of adversity at all, they wouldn't know how to handle it.

 

You can't strive for a goal and be the same person. It takes effort. It takes sacrifice. It takes growth. And to grow sometimes we have to lose or fail at something. The bow of an arrow is pulled back before it can be launched forwards. It is the lessons that build the knowledge, self-assurance, and belief to progression. Instead of beating yourself up over losses or failure, let the emotion pass and write down everything you learned about yourself and the situation.

 

5. Performance Reflection.

When athletes remember performance details directly after competition or training, they generally lead with their inner self-critic. Most find it easier to recount the few mistakes and failures they just made rather than all their successes.

The most alarming factor about reflecting on performance this way is that it trains your brain to focus on flaws before praising controllable attributes such as preparation, effort, and attitude (which is more likely to lead to success and consistency in performance).

The objective of learning from past performance is to find ways to improve in your sport. Since athletes know that mistakes will occur to some degree, reflection should centre on successful performances while also identifying areas for improvement.

For Team Sports - O&D 3 2 1:

• Write down 3 things you did very well offensively and defensively separately (6 total).
• Write down 2 things you could improve upon for O&D.
• Write down 1 key skill or situation you will train on for the next performance.

For Individual Sports - 3 High, 2 Low, 1 Forward:

• Write down 3 Highlights that stood out from your event.
• Write down 2 Lowlights or areas for improvement.
• Write down 1 lesson you will take forward with you from your experience.

This type of Performance Reflection also allows athletes to become more conscious and familiar with their inner-self talk and the thoughts and stories that come up throughout the performance.

The benefit of applying a growth mindset into your sport is being that human beings are creatures of habit - the way we do one thing is the way we do all things. This means that as you start to develop a growth mindset in sport it will carry over into your perspective on other areas of your life.

 

You may find that you have elements of both a fixed mindset and a growth mindset depending on the situation or experience. This is why reflecting on and becoming more aware of your thoughts and perspectives can help you choose the path that is going to help you move forward.

"Every day we are presented with two choices: Evolve or repeat." - Unknown

No matter where you are in your life or in your athletic career, you're only one choice away from a different outcome. You can't always change the situation but you can always change your mindset.

[mistertim]

4 hours ago, Commander202 said:

Kinda feel like JJ McCarthy underrated . Don’t get the hate  from him but he’s easily someone that going late first or early second… maybe higher . 
 

And I think he’s a dark horse for what Peters would want if we decided to trade back.

 

I don't recall seeing much "hate" in here for McCarthy. It's mostly that he's a bit of an unknown as he was on a stacked team that was very run and defense oriented, and he also had an excellent OL, so he wasn't really asked to do a ton.

 

He does have some pretty good attributes from the cutups I've watched though. I'd say at the moment he's probably a mid to late 1st round guy. Someone will take a chance on him in the hope that his smallish sample size will be able to expand and he'll be able to handle a bigger load in the NFL.

 

And I don't want us to trade down unless GMAP and the coaches have poor grades on Maye and Daniels and a high one on McCarthy. No trading down just for the sake of getting more picks.

Edited February 11 by mistertim

[FrFan]

12 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I don't recall seeing much "hate" in here for McCarthy. It's mostly that he's a bit of an unknown as he was on a stacked team that was very run and defense oriented, and he also had an excellent OL, so he wasn't really asked to do a ton.

 

He does have some pretty good attributes from the cutups I've watched though. I'd say at the moment he's probably a mid to late 1st round guy. Someone will take a chance on him in the hope that his smallish sample size will be able to expand and he'll be able to handle a bigger load in the NFL.

 

And I don't want us to trade down unless GMAP and the coaches have poor grades on Maye and Daniels and a high one on McCarthy. No trading down just for the sake of getting more picks.

He's getting more and more props. Matt Miller has him going 13 to the Raiders.

13. Las Vegas Raiders

J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan

"The Raiders have a new general manager in Tom Telesco and must make finding a long-term quarterback the priority of the 2024 offseason (free agent signing Jimmy Garoppolo has not worked out). McCarthy, who started two years at Michigan, just turned 21 and has the requisite tools to be that player. He's mobile and tough as nails, and scouts praise his arm strength and ability to make difficult throws in big situations. He has thrown only 44 touchdown passes in college to nine interceptions and compared to the other top quarterbacks in this class, he's by far the least-experienced thrower. But his potential and ceiling have him worthy of a top-15 selection."

 

J.J. McCarthy NFL Draft 2024: Scouting Report for Michigan QB

 

McCarthy fits best in a Shanahan-style system that simplifies things pre-snap and leans into throws over the middle of the field with the help of play action.